Last Updated on January 11, 2024 1:10 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC Fight Night is back to the Apex to start the year with a Banger of a bout. We expect a possible barn burner of a main event at the light heavyweight division, along with a fight card stacked with international talent.
The headliner is not only an interesting style clash, but it is a rematch. An accidental illegal knee strike during the first round turned their match 3 months ago into a no-contest.
Now these two are ready to run it back and go at each other to finish their business in the cage and see who will keep pushing forward in the division.
On the co-main event, we get a Flyweight clash between Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape, who are trying to break into the top of the division to get ready and challenge the current title holder.
We also have some seasoned veterans in the card, like Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez, who face on the main card, along with a fan favorite, Andrei Arlovski.
Tons of talent from multiple countries come ready to showcase their skills in the most famous octagon in the world, as the Saturday event comes closer, so we are ready to sit on the edge of the table and enjoy each of these clashes.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 – Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
When:
Saturday, January 13th, at 4:00 pm ET
Moneyline odds:
Magomed Ankalaev 1.183 / Johnny Walker 4.935
Matheus Nicolau 3.07 / Manel Kape 1.39
Jim Miller 1.571 / Gabriel Benítez 2.449
Ricky Simón 1.576 / Mario Bautista 2.435
Phil Hawes 2.119 / Brunno Ferreira 1.751
Andrei Arlovski 5.35 / Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1.153
Matthew Semelsberger 1.71 / Preston Parsons 2.148
Marcus McGhee 1.399 / Gaston Bolaños 2.974
Farid Basharat 1.299 / Taylor Lapilus 3.51
Westin Wilson 6.74 / Jean Silva 1.099
Tom Nolan 1.322 / Nikolas Motta 3.335
Felipe Bunes 3.015 / Joshua Van 1.387
Where can I watch it?
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Why Bet on Magomed Ankalaev?
Magomed Ankalaev is a well-rounded monster with a powerful striking attack that includes good boxing and kicks. Add to that a wrestling game that saved him in a close fight with Jan Blachowicz where he was losing the striking.
Why Bet on Johnny Walker?
Johnny Walker is an explosive knockout artist with a weird style and a surprisingly improved ground game. However, his durability has not been the best, with him suffering several knockout losses brutally.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker Final Betting Analysis:
It’s hard to take a lot from what happened in that first bout. It looked like Ankalaev was probably in charge of things, as he landed some early shots that appeared to have the Brazilian on the back foot before taking him down. The end came shortly after that.
Walker’s best bet in this fight is probably to make it as wild and crazy as possible. He seemed to have calmed his style somewhat recently, leading to his wins over Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith.
However, the truth is that if he tries to fight in a regular style against Ankalaev, he’s likely to lose. The Dagestani is a far superior grappler, has probably the best takedowns in the division, and more to the point, he also hits like a truck and has a rock-hard chin.
Walker will likely take the fight to Ankalaev early on, only to leave himself wide open. Eventually, the Dagestani is going to capitalize on one of those openings, and will probably dispatch the Brazilian there.
UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
Why Bet on Matheus Nicolau?
With a UFC record of 16-3-1, Nicolau is a formidable force in the octagon. A well-rounded MMA fighter, he has great strength in both ground and stand-up games.
He tends to prefer the ground game, as he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, which is advantageous for him in grappling scenarios. Additionally, Nicolau also has respectable striking skills, establishing a competent defense and landing precise strikes.
Why Bet on Manel Kape?
Manel Kape is also a potent challenger with a record of 16-6-0. His fight game is primarily dependent on his explosive striking abilities. He typically outshines his opponents with his spectacular speed and knockout power.
Kape really knows how to put pressure on his opponents, and he’s effective at both boxing range and in clinches. His relentless assaults can break any fighter’s spirit.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape Final Betting Analysis:
Kape and Nicolau fought back in May of 2021, and it was Nicolau who won by a controversial split decision. Since then, Kape has found his footing in the UFC and has been showing off his power. Nicolau, meanwhile, is coming off a KO loss to Brandon Royval, and both his losses in the UFC are by knockout.
Kape is active on the feet, as he averages 5.12 significant strikes per minute, and throws most of his punches with a ton of power. We expect Kape to be more aggressive in the rematch and catch Nicolau to win by KO.
UFC Fight Night: Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benítez
Why Bet on Jim Miller?
It’s not a daily thing to see a 40-year-old still entering the octagon and compete at the highest levels.
This will be the 43rd time he steps in and he hopes to extend both the record of appearances and the record of 25 wins even further. In fact, for Las Vegas 74, on Jun 4, 2023, he defeated Jesse Butler by KO in 23 seconds flat.
Why Bet on Gabriel Benítez?
The Mexican is not that far behind the American. He is 35, with a total of 13 appearances in the octagon for his UFC career, another 20 before that, and a total record of 23 wins and 11 losses.
4(T)KOS are 9 for and 4 against, while 10 and 2 are for submissions. His last victory was on Aug 13 2022 when he defeated C. Ontiveros by a KO after 3 minutes and 33 seconds.
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benítez Final Betting Analysis:
Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez were set to fight last February, but Benitez withdrew. Now nearly a year later, the two will finally square off.
Miller is coming off a 23-second knockout win, while Benitez hasn’t fought since August of 2022. The knock on Benitez has been his cardio, and although Miller isn’t one to push the pace and go 15 minutes, he still has better cardio than “Moggly”.
We expect Miller to use his wrestling to get Benitez down to the mat, as the American will have a massive advantage on the ground. Benitez’s takedown defense is just 58 percent, as Miller should be able to get him down and control him, which will lead to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO win.
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simón vs. Mario Bautista
Why Bet on Ricky Simón?
Ricky Simon is a little bit like a rash at 135. He’s been exposed to some pretty harsh treatments by the UFC brass but refuses to go away.
He’s a Covington-style pressure grappler with some real explosivity, he loves an arm-triangle choke, even though he took a pretty awful loss to Song Yadong in his last bout and also got TKOed by Urijah Faber in under a minute in 2019.
Why Bet on Mario Bautista?
Mario Bautista has flown under the radar for a long time in the UFC. He lost his debut to Cory Sandhagen and got TKOed by Trevin Jones at UFC 259, so he’s been largely ignored in his other fights.
He’s won seven of his last eight and while the names he’s beaten aren’t particularly well-regarded, they speak to a really high level in his game—especially in his last win against Da’Mon Blackshear, who everybody needs to be watching as an underground but very elite fighter at 135.
Ricky Simón vs. Mario Bautista Final Betting Analysis:
This fight is one of those where both guys are going to be very eager to push a pace, meaning that they’re both going to escalate in intensity as the fight goes on, especially in the first round. Both guys are used to winning that battle and have the cardio to struggle for the upper hand across several rounds, so with 15 minutes to work, we should expect a really high-octane matchup for the whole time.
Simon absolutely has ways to win here, and if he does, it’ll either be with a clean KO/TKO, a dominant grappling show across 15 minutes, or a highly authoritative submission from a strong wrestling position.
But none of those outcomes seem particularly likely, in a matchup where Bautista’s edge on the feet and his inclination toward chaos on the ground set him up to have an easier time making this his kind of fight.
UFC Fight Night: Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
Why Bet on Phil Hawes?
Even though his UFC Vegas 84 odds aren’t too long, Phil Hawes (12-5) is seen as the underdog in Saturday’s fight.
One of the reasons is that he got KO-ed three times in his last four fights. It sounds terrible, but the fighters who beat him are real elite middleweights – Ikram Aliskerov, Roman Dolidze, and Chris Curtis.
The fight in which he didn’t suffer a knockout saw him win by a TKO and get himself a Performance of the Night bonus.
Why Bet on Brunno Ferreira?
The rising star Brunno Ferreira (10-1). The Brazilian fighter came to America after impressing in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. He made his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues whom he KO-ed in the first round.
Ferreira’s first career loss happened in his second UFC fight, in which Nursulton Ruziboev beat him by a KO after just 77 seconds. What happened there was that Ruziboev took him down quickly and then finished him with punches.
Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira Final Betting Analysis:
Phil Hawes is ultra-talented with his striking and wrestling, but the knock on him is his chin, as it usually only takes one good shot to put high lights out. That is certainly a concern here, but he still is a better fighter than Ferreira.
Hawes should be able to out-grapple Ferreira and look to avoid standing with the Brazilian, who does have KO power. If he can grind the first round out, it should make Ferreria tired, which will effectively limit his power.
This fight will be sketchy, as even if Phil Hawes is winning the fight, his chin can be touched at any time. But, we still like Hawes to avoid the power shot in the first round and grind out a win here as the underdog.
UFC Fight Night: Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Why Bet on Andrei Arlovski?
“The Pitbull” put together his best run since 2015 at more than 40 years old, winning six of seven from 2020 to 2022. The miracle wasn’t to last, as he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive stoppage losses. His 20 finishes include 17 by knockout.
Why Bet on Waldo Cortes-Acosta?
“Salsa Boy” followed his Contender Series finish of Danilo Suzart with two straight UFC victories, only to run afoul of Marcos Rogerio de Lima in April 2023. Undaunted, he returned to form four months later with a one-round beatdown of fellow DWCS vet Lukasz Brzeski. He’ll enjoy an inch of height and reach on Arlovski.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Final Betting Analysis:
Any fighter on the tail end of their career should look to Arlovski as a role model. The man basically rebuilt his style from scratch to compensate for declining athleticism, squeezing several extra years out of a career that looked over on multiple occasions.
It couldn’t last forever, though. He was very fortunate to escape with a decision over Jake Collier last year, and though “Pezao” is a menace when he’s on, he really should have been able to beat Don’Tale Mayes.
Cortes-Acosta is 12 years younger, throws way more volume, and has a remarkably good gas tank for his size; even with that extremely exploitable weakness to low kicks, it’s hard to see him losing this one. He blitzes his aging foe before Arlovski can drag him into his pace.
UFC Fight Night: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
Why Bet on Matthew Semelsberger?
“Semi the Jedi” hammered his way to a 4-1 UFC start, the lone loss a decision to Khaos Williams. He’s since dropped three of four, including a comeback knockout defeat to Uros Medic last time out in July 2023. He steps in for Bassil Hafez on less than a month’s notice.
Why Bet on Preston Parsons?
Parsons rebounded from an unsuccessful short-notice UFC debut by overpowering Evan Elder in April 2022. An 11-month layoff followed, culminating in a narrow split decision loss to Trevin Giles. Nine of his 10 pro wins have come by submission.
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons Final Betting Analysis:
We really don’t know what to make of Semelsberger at this point. His power remains as devastating as ever, but there is no excuse for that stagnant ground game. The man essentially knocked Jeremiah Wells unconscious twice and still couldn’t keep on his feet. Parsons has the wrestling chops to consistently ground Semelsberger and the grit to do so for all three rounds.
We don’t see Semelsberger winning this without a knockout, which is admittedly more than doable considering the power in his right hand and Parsons’ two (T)KO defeats. With how easily Wells neutralized him on the ground, though, we have to favor the better wrestler. Parsons grinds his way to victory.
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolaños
Why Bet on Marcus McGhee?
“The Maniac” put his first-ever loss behind him to score back-to-back knockouts, then stepped up at the eleventh hour to battle Journey Newson in his UFC debut.
He ultimately dispatched Newson via second-round club-and-sub, then flattened late replacement JP Buys with a walk-off bonus-winning KO four months later. All of his wins have come inside of two rounds, seven of them via knockout.
Why Bet on Gaston Bolaños?
Bolanos spent the first nine fights of his MMA career in Bellator, where he racked up six knockouts. He made the jump to UFC in 2023, overpowering Aaron Phillips in his debut to claim his first-ever decision victory. He is the shorter man by an inch.
Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolaños Final Betting Analysis:
Bolaños managed to lose a round to one of the worst Bantamweights on the roster, but we’re still talking about a decorated kickboxer in what should be a pure striking battle.
Man, McGhee looks good, though. It’s not just the power and speed; he has excellent awareness of incoming fire and manages distance well. While we’ll acknowledge that smashing JP Buys on the feet is not a major accomplishment, we are willing to call this guy the real deal. Between his skills and Bolaños’ inconsistency, we like McGhee to floor him with a right hand before the halfway point.
UFC Fight Night: Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
Why Bet on Farid Basharat?
After cutting his teeth on the European circuit, Farid Basharat (11-0) secured a UFC contract by out-classing Allan Begosso on the Contender Series.
A unanimous decision over Da’Mon Blackshear put him on the scoreboard, after which he claimed his first UFC finish via first-round arm-triangle choke against Kleydson Rodrigues.
Why Bet on Taylor Lapilus?
Taylor Lapilus (19-3) went 3-1 in his first UFC stint before being released in 2016. He responded by winning eight of his next nine bouts, then handed Caolan Loughran his first professional defeat in his Octagon return.
His professional finishes are split 6:4 between submissions and knockouts.
Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus Final Betting Analysis:
We actually really like Lapilus’ chances in this matchup. His takedown defense is generally excellent, which should take away the grappling that’s been Basharat’s key weapon, and his sniper style should work well against Basharat’s jab-heavy approach. He’s got the heavier hands of the two, so even if Basharat can match him blow-for-blow, Lapilus figures to come out on top when they exchange.
The clash of styles suggests that a decisive victor is unlikely. That said, Lapilus is Basharat’s toughest opponent to date, and though Basharat is improving rapidly, our gut says this is a step too far. In short, Lapilus’ movement and clean punches win a squeaker.
UFC Fight Night: Westin Wilson vs. Jean Silva
Why Bet on Westin Wilson?
Westin Wilson (16-8) started his career 10-6 before finding his footing with a 6-1 run, marred only by a loss to UFC veteran, Teruto Ishihara. He stepped up on short notice to battle Joanderson Brito in his UFC debut, only to succumb to “Tubarao’s” ground-and-pound midway through the first round.
All of his wins have come by stoppage, 14 of them in the first round.
Why Bet on Jean Silva?
A 3-2 professional start gave way to seven straight wins for Jean Silva (11-2), all of them via first-round finish. His efforts earned him a spot in the Contender Series, where “Lord Assassin” overpowered Argentinean prospect, Kevin Vallejos, to win a UFC contract.
He steps in for Gabriel Silva on around one month’s notice.
Westin Wilson vs. Jean Silva Final Betting Analysis:
The good news for Wilson is that, unlike Brito, Silva isn’t too likely to force a grappling battle. The bad news is that Silva doesn’t really have to because he’s way too powerful and way too dangerous on the inside for Wilson to handle. It would be one thing if Wilson had the skill to properly utilize his six-inch height advantage and four-inch reach advantage but, well, he doesn’t.
Unless the short notice kills Silva’s gas tank and/or leaves him overly passive, we’ll be shocked if “Lord Assassin” doesn’t just walk down Wilson and brutalize him against the fence. There are desperately few UFC fighters Wilson can beat … and Silva’s not one of them.
UFC Fight Night: Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta
Why Bet on Tom Nolan?
Tom Nolan’s (6-0) time on the Australian circuit saw him go 6-1 (1 NC) as an amateur and perfect (5-0) as a professional before joining Contender Series. There, he took just 83 seconds to smash Bogdan Grad and walk away with a UFC contract.
Three of his four professional knockouts have come in the first round.
Why Bet on Nikolas Motta?
Fresh from winning CFFC gold with a decision over Juan Gonzalez, Nikolas Motta (13-5) put on a dominant performance against Joseph Lowry to graduate from the Contender Series. He now finds himself with just one win in four UFC appearances, most infamously fighting Trey Ogden to a “No Contest” in Nov. 2023.
Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta Final Betting Analysis:
The Motta who could knockout Nolan does not exist anymore. If we could trust Motta to pressure like he used to — to time that murderous left hook of his when Nolan inevitably overcommitted on a blitz — he’d be a live underdog.
The problem is … we can’t.
“Iron’s” confidence seems to have finally shattered after four knockout losses; therefore, if he couldn’t pull the trigger against a light hitter like Ogden, we can’t imagine him doing so against Nolan’s avalanche of offense. In the end, “Big Train” mows down a gun-shy Motta inside of three minutes.
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Joshua Van
Why Bet on Felipe Bunes?
Felipe Bunes (13-6) saw a seven-fight win streak — capped by a flying triangle armbar finish of Yoni Sherbatov — turn into a 1-4 skid under the ACA and LFA banners. Subsequent efforts proved more successful, though, edging out Wascar Cruz before knocking out Yuma Horiuchi for LFA gold.
He has submitted eight professional foes and submitted another three.
Why Bet on Joshua Van?
Joshua Van (9-1) — previously slated to meet Kevin Borjas on Contender Series — powered through a rough start to beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his short-notice UFC debut. He then did the same to Borjas, racking up an absurd 156 significant strikes to take home the decision.
He replaces Denys Bondar on less than one month’s notice.
Felipe Bunes vs. Joshua Van Final Betting Analysis:
Van’s slow starts are going to be a problem going forward. Luckily for him, this is more than winnable even with that handicap.
Indeed, Van’s the better in-fighter by a large margin and showed off his ability to deal with a reach disadvantage against Borjas, who’s a far faster and more powerful hitter than “Felipinho.”
The only real threat here is Bunes’ grappling, which Van’s rapidly improving ground game should be able to handle. When the dust settles, Van weathers another tough first round to bury Bunes in volume and claim a clear decision.
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