Clausura 2025 Semifinals Second Leg: Toluca vs. Tigres Preview

This Saturday, the first finalist of the 2025 Clausura MX will be decided when Toluca hosts Tigres in the second leg of the semifinals.

The first leg, played in Monterrey, ended in a 1-1 draw—a result that favors the Diablos Rojos not only because they’ll now play at home, but also because if the aggregate score remains tied, they will advance to the final thanks to their higher position in the regular season standings.

Liga MX Semifinals Second Leg: Toluca vs. Tigres Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Toluca?

Toluca got the job done. They went to Monterrey and came away with a 1-1 draw, so the scales are slightly tipped in their favor thanks to the advantage of their higher seed. However, they can’t afford to get overconfident.

In the first leg, they were the better team and could have taken the win, but Nahuel Guzmán and the post stood in their way. The Argentine goalkeeper made some great saves, including one against Alexis Vega, who also hit the crossbar.

Their only goal was scored by Paulinho, the top scorer with 14 goals. The Portuguese striker headed in a cross from Marcel Ruiz, scoring his third consecutive header goal and his fourth of the tournament.

At home during the Clausura MX regular season, Toluca had six wins and two draws. They also defeated Monterrey in the quarterfinals, remaining undefeated on their own turf.

Why Bet on Tigres?

Tigres hadn’t shown much strength and reached the semifinals almost by a miracle—something evident in the first leg. Guido Pizarro’s team didn’t show much resilience, and the draw was practically a gift.

Their only goal came from Nicolás Ibáñez after a cutback pass from Ozziel Herrera. It was just his third goal of the tournament and sixth of the year for the Argentine striker, who broke a six-match scoring drought. Much more was expected from the former Pachuca forward, who hasn’t lived up to expectations as the team’s main goalscorer. Juan Brunetta leads the team with seven goals, but he’s only scored once in his last 12 matches.

The “Felinos” are five games without a win, with three consecutive draws in the playoffs, another draw, and a loss in their CONCACAF Champions Cup series against Cruz Azul.

On the road, across both competitions, they have five draws and two losses in their last seven outings. This year, they’ve won only two of 13 away games.

Final Betting Analysis: Toluca vs. Tigres

Toluca has everything in its favor to reach the final and is the clear favorite for what it showed during the regular season and in the first leg. Meanwhile, Tigres hasn’t displayed the strength of previous years, which is why we believe the “Diablos Rojos” will secure the win at home.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor Tigres, with a Moneyline of +122, while Toluca stands at +221, and a draw is at +225.

In addition to this week’s match, these teams faced each other on February 1 during the regular season at this stadium, where Toluca won 1-0 with a stoppage-time header by Paulinho. The “Diablos Rojos” have six consecutive home wins, and the last time the Tigres won as visitors was back in 2019.

Go for a straight win for Toluca in the Moneyline. If you bet $100 at +221, you will gain $221 for a total payout of $321.

Toluca vs. Tigres Betting Pick: Toluca