Palmeiras vs. Grêmio Betting Odds and Free Pick

The Brasileirão matches continue this weekend as Palmeiras, who need a win to stay close to the top, host a Grêmio side that is desperate for points.

Palmeiras are coming off a great 2-1 away win against Fluminense and are in good form with two consecutive and important victories.

Grêmio, on the other hand, continues to take hit after hit and most recently drew 1-1 on the road versus Vasco in league play.

Brasileirão Matchday 17: Palmeiras vs. Grêmio Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Palmeiras?

Palmeiras are once again one of the main title contenders this year in the Brasileirão. With 29 points, they sit third, five behind Cruzeiro. However, ‘Verdão’ has two games in hand, so if they catch up with wins, they could climb to the top of the table.

They have nine wins, two draws, and three losses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 12—both figures that are unusual for an Abel Ferreira side. Surprisingly, they’ve struggled at home, ranking 17th in that category with three wins, two draws, and two losses.

After returning from the Club World Cup, they were held to a surprising 1-1 draw by Mirassol in São Paulo. But they bounced back with two tough wins: a narrow 3-2 home victory over Atlético Mineiro and a 2-1 away win over Fluminense.

Midfielder Mauricio has become a key player, scoring in the last two matches. Forward Vitor Roque also found the net again after more than two months, a crucial step toward regaining confidence.

Among the injured are defender Murilo and striker Paulinho, while Allan is suspended. On the bright side, defender Bruno Fuchs is eligible to return after serving a suspension.

Why Bet on Grêmio?

It’s been a rough year for the Porto Alegre side. In the Brasileirão, they sit 13th with 17 points from four wins, five draws, and five losses, having scored 14 goals and conceded 20.

A few months ago, they were knocked out of the Copa do Brasil in the third round by CSA, a third-division team. And just this Wednesday, they were eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana after drawing at home with Peru’s Alianza Lima, losing the tie 3-1 on aggregate.

Head coach Mano Menezes, who arrived for the 2025 season, is on the hot seat. Grêmio has taken just two of the last nine available points in the league, drawing 1-1 with both Vasco and Corinthians and suffering a 4-1 defeat to Cruzeiro. Their away form has been poor, with just one win, two draws, and four losses on the road.

Martin Braithwaite is the team’s top scorer with four goals and has been on a run of three straight matches with a goal (two from penalties), but that streak ended against Vasco.

Among the injured are defenders Rodrigo Ely and João Pedro, along with midfielder Gustavo Cuéllar.

Final Betting Analysis: Palmeiras vs. Grêmio

The current form of both clubs is opposite—both on the field and emotionally—which is why we believe Palmeiras will be the clear winner in this matchup.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor Palmeiras, with their Moneyline at -200, while Grêmio are at +960, and a draw at +401.

The last time these two teams met was on November 8, 2024, at this same stadium, where Palmeiras won 1-0 with a goal from Estêvão. Playing at home, ‘Verdão’ has four straight wins, including a Copa do Brasil match, and is unbeaten in their last five games.

Go for a win for Palmeiras. If you bet $100 at -297, you will gain $34 for a total payout of $134.

Palmeiras vs. Grêmio Betting Pick: Palmeiras