Broncos vs. Bills Preview and Free Pick

Last Updated on January 16, 2026 2:45 pm by Erwin Noguera

The No. 1-seed Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills in the 2026 NFL Divisional Round, with a spot in the AFC Championship on the line.

Denver arrives after securing the top spot in the conference and resting during Wild Card week, which not only allowed them to recover injuries but also to refine their offensive plan and adjust defensive details. The continuity of their project has been evident since September: efficient ground game, disciplined defense, and a playbook that grows in volume as the opponent tires.

Buffalo, meanwhile, arrives at this stage with the energy of a team that has already played an early final. The Bills are coming off an intense playoff game, where they had to respond under pressure and come through in the fourth quarter. That competitive momentum is a double-edged sword: it brings rhythm and confidence, but it also adds physical wear and tear at the height of January. The key will be how the coaching staff protects their quarterback and manages possessions so that the noise at Mile High doesn’t become an enemy.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all NFL predictions, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.

Broncos vs. Bills Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on the Broncos?

Denver enters the Divisional Round as a serious contender for the title. Their regular season was a display of balance and consistency, achieving an impressive 14-3 record that placed them among the conference’s elite. In addition, playing at home has become a real advantage: their 8-1 record at Mile High speaks to a challenging environment for any visitor, especially when the weather and altitude come into play.

The break they earned after securing first place allowed them to prepare for this matchup with time, adjust loads, and recover key physical pieces. That extra week often makes a difference in January, especially against opponents coming off the Wild Card Round with fewer days of recovery and more accumulated hits. Denver’s coaching staff has taken advantage of this window to polish defensive details and expand its offensive repertoire.

The heart of the Broncos’ success lies in their defense. No opponent has found much comfort against a system that allowed just 278.2 yards per game (a record that placed them among the best in the NFL) and limited their opponents to just 4.8 yards per play, the lowest standard in the entire league. That combination of aggressiveness, disciplined coverage, and solidity in the front seven makes Denver a tough nut to crack for any offense.

Why Bet on the Bills?

Buffalo arrives with a different profile: more demanding, more seasoned, and with the confidence that comes from surviving away games in the playoffs. Their dramatic victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round showed that the team is used to handling extreme situations and that their quarterback, Josh Allen, remains one of the most influential players in knockout games. Their 13-5 overall record reflects a competitive project that is accustomed to fighting in January.

The disadvantage for the Bills now lies in the context. They will have to play at altitude in Colorado, a scenario that punishes teams that rely heavily on offensive rhythm and forces them to manage time and long possessions. Buffalo knows what it means to face Denver in high-pressure games, and it also carries the recent memory of eliminating them in the postseason last season, a precedent that adds an interesting psychological twist.

Beyond adjustments and conditions, this team has shown character in hostile territory and does not shy away from adverse environments. Its offense can strike at any moment, and its defense, although inconsistent at times, tends to raise its level when the schedule enters elimination mode. That combination makes the Bills an uncomfortable opponent with enough talent to ruin any plan.

Final Betting Analysis: Broncos vs. Bills

The recent series between Denver and Buffalo has been building tension within the AFC. These are two franchises with serious aspirations and contrasting styles that, in several recent clashes, have neutralized each other. In the most immediate balance, there is no absolutely dominant team: victories have alternated, and the games have been competitive from start to finish.

The strongest precedent comes from last season’s playoffs, when the Bills ran roughshod over the Broncos with a resounding 31-7 victory in the Wild Card round.

At Gambyl Exchange, we can see that there is a Moneyline that favors the Broncos at -116, while the Bills start at -106.

For this game, our prediction is a Broncos victory.

Look for a win on the Broncos. For example, if you put $100 on the Broncos at -116, you’ll see a $86.21 win with a total payout of $186.21.

Broncos vs. Bills Betting Pick: Broncos