Brasileirao Matchday 1 Betting Favorites

Last Updated on January 27, 2026 3:41 pm by Erwin Noguera

The 2026 Brasileirão season returns to the scene with renewed excitement, high expectations, and a competitive balance that promises another thrilling edition of the Brazilian championship.

The opening day will bring together a variety of stories: clubs coming off a solid 2025 and aiming to fight for the title, others looking to establish themselves in the continental zone from the outset, and several that will try to distance themselves from the specter of relegation as soon as possible.

Added to this is an extra component: the pressure of the market and the context. Many clubs have renewed key positions, others are maintaining consolidated projects from the bench, and some are facing structural changes that will test their capacity to adapt. With this scenario, the opening day is shaping up to be an ideal barometer to gauge the favorites and those who want to become the surprise teams.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all the predictions for the Brasileirão, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.

Brasileirão Weekly Pick Betting Odds

Brasileirão Matchday 1: Atlético Mineiro vs. Palmeiras

Wednesday, January 28, will see one of the highlights of the day when Atlético Mineiro hosts Palmeiras at the MRV Arena, in a match that will pit two teams with completely different recent fortunes against each other. For Jorge Sampaoli’s team, this start comes amid a complicated tune-up: beyond the recent 2-1 win in the classic against Cruzeiro, their previous performance left more questions than answers. That contrast means that their home debut comes loaded with pressure and a need for redemption.

Palmeiras arrives with a much more positive dynamic. Abel Ferreira’s side ended their previous run with four wins in five games and a sustained level of performance that combines solidity at the back and punch up front. Not only are they more experienced, but they are also the favorites in most of the tournament predictions. In addition, the most recent precedent weighs heavily: the last match between the two ended 3-0 in favor of Verdão, boosting the visitors’ confidence.

The statistical context also tips the balance.In the last five head-to-head matches, Palmeiras has four wins toMineiro’s one, a pattern that could influence the psychological approach to the match.For Atlético, the challenge will be twofold: to rebuild their attacking identity in front of their fans and to stop one of the strongest teams in the country. For Palmeiras, the objective is clear: to start the campaign by reaffirming their form and their status as contenders.

Atlético Mineiro vs. Palmeiras Betting Pick: Palmeiras

Brasileirão Matchday 1: Fluminense vs. Gremio

The Maracanã will host the clash between Fluminense and Grêmio, a wide-open match, but with the Cariocas slightly better positioned in terms of momentum. Flu, led by Luis Zubeldía, ended last season with an excellent run that included prestigious victories, among them a 2-1 win in the classic against Flamengo, and a balanced game structure between defense and attack.

Grêmio, meanwhile, faces the start of the campaign with a more inconsistent performance. Luís Castro’s team alternated good performances with significant setbacks, such as the 2-4 defeat to Internacional in their most recent outing, which exposed certain defensive weaknesses. That inconsistency could be decisive against an opponent as organized and confident in their performance as Fluminense.

The head-to-head record also plays a role: the last meeting went Flu’s way 2-1, and the recent history is favorable (three wins for Fluminense, one for Grêmio, and one draw). The atmosphere at the Maracanã and the home team’s form suggest that the Cariocas have a slight advantage, although Grêmio has the squad to compete if it can correct its disconnections.

Fluminense vs. Grêmio Betting Pick: Fluminense

Brasileirão Matchday 1: Chapecoense vs. Santos

Chapecoense will host Santos at the Arena Condá, a clash that is generating curiosity due to the contrasting trajectories of both teams going into this opening game.Chapecoense arrives with recent momentum after a 6-0 victory over Joinville in the cup, a win that served to restore self-esteem after a disastrous end to the league season, with five consecutive defeats in Série A. The big question is whether that energy will carry over against a higher-ranked opponent.

Santos, under Juan Pablo Vojvoda, did not start the year brilliantly, with a 0-0 draw against Bragantino, leaving a bitter taste, but they ended the previous cycle with a convincing victory over Cruzeiro (3-0) and a solid run that included three wins in five league games. Its structure is more stable, and it has players who are used to handling complex situations, which could make the difference in an away debut.

The record strengthens the visitors’ position. Although Chape won the last meeting at Condá (3-2), Santos has won four of the last five head-to-head matches. That makes Peixe the theoretical favorite, although the big question is which Chapecoense will show up: the one that dominated in the cup or the one that struggled in the league.

Chapecoense vs. Santos Pick: Santos

Brasileirão Matchday 1: Botafogo vs. Cruzeiro

Botafogo hosts Cruzeiro at Nilton Santos, a clash between two clubs that finished 2025 in the upper echelons of the table and are aiming to compete for continental spots once again. Botafogo has a clear advantage: its strength at home. In its last ten home games, it has accumulated six wins, three draws, and only one loss, with an average of nearly two goals per game and several clean sheets.

Cruzeiro enters the new season with a more inconsistent record, having three wins, two draws, and five losses in its last ten games. Despite this, it is a team that creates chances and has strengthened its squad with a view to climbing the competitive ladder. The big question is whether it can translate that intention into results away from home, where it has been less convincing and more vulnerable at the back.

The recent history between the two sides suggests a tactical game with few goals, with Cruzeiro dominating head-to-head encounters and Botafogo unbeaten in several recent meetings. The last match, which ended 2-2 after a dramatic comeback by Fogão, is an example of the parity and tension that usually arises. With different styles and high aspirations from day one, this match has the makings of the closest contest of the day.

Botafogo vs. Cruzeiro Betting Pick: Botafogo