Five Premier League Clubs that Could Exceed Expectations this Season

Last Updated on August 19, 2026 11:08 pm by Erwin Noguera

Sunderland finished seventh last season and qualified for the Europa League. They were promoted the summer before that to the Premier League. It was one of the stories of the campaign.

The bookmakers have them at 2/1 to be relegated.

That single price tells you how the Premier League market works. Reputation moves slowly, recent evidence barely registers, and clubs outside the established order have to prove themselves again every August. This season the problem is worse than usual, because a record nine clubs start the campaign with a new permanent manager; the highest number the top flight has ever seen on an opening weekend, beating the eight who did it in 2016-17.

Nine new systems, nine new sets of ideas, and a market that priced most of these squads back in May.

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Here are five clubs the market has underrated.

1. Sunderland

What the market says: 2/1 to be relegated. Only the three promoted clubs are shorter.

That is a remarkable price for a team that finished seventh and earned European football twelve months ago.

The logic behind it is the second-season theory: that promoted clubs who overachieve get found out once opponents have a year of video on them, and that European football drains a squad built for one competition. Both are real risks. Neither is an argument for the fourth-shortest relegation price in the division.

Sunderland were not a fluke last season. Seventh place across thirty-eight games is not a hot streak; it is a sustained level of performance against every side in the league. They beat teams above them, and they were not carried by an unrepeatable goal return.

Why they beat it: the market is pricing the club that came up, not the club that finished seventh. Those are different teams, and the odds have not caught up.

The risk: the Europa League. Thursday-to-Sunday turnarounds have broken better-resourced squads, and Sunderland’s depth will be tested in a way it was not last year.

Opening fixture: away at Ipswich, Saturday 22 August. A promoted side away from home is exactly the sort of fixture the doubters expect them to drop.

2. Nottingham Forest

What the market says: 6/1 to be relegated, which puts them eighth in that market and firmly in the group expected to scrap.

Forest have made the most interesting managerial appointment of the summer, and almost nobody is talking about it.

Oliver Glasner arrives from Crystal Palace, where he won a trophy and consistently got more from a squad than its wage bill suggested. He inherits a group that suits his system and, critically, no European football to manage. Glasner can put the entire week into the league.

The recruitment supports the idea. Ousmane Diomande has arrived for around £34 million, a genuine statement of intent for a club in this bracket, with Xaver Schlager and Steven Benda added on free transfers. The priorities are clear: a centre-forward, a central midfielder, and a right wing-back, with Chris Wood now 34 and Forest linked to Dominic Solanke.

The most important piece of business is one that will not appear in a transfer column. Keeping Morgan Gibbs-White is essential, and Glasner reportedly sought assurances on exactly that before taking the job, having grown frustrated at Palace watching his best players sold.

Why they beat it: a proven Premier League manager with a full week to coach, a squad that fits his shape, and £34 million spent on the spine.

The risk: the striker situation. If Forest do not add a forward before the window shuts, they are asking an injury-prone 34-year-old to carry the goalscoring load.

Opening fixture: home to Leeds, Saturday 22 August.

3. Everton

What the market says: 9/1 to be relegated and 20/1 for the top four. The market has them as a mid-table side with a floor.

The 20/1 is the interesting number, because the conditions for a jump are quietly in place.

This is Everton’s second season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and the difference between year one and year two in a new ground is consistently underestimated. The first season is about learning a building. The second is when it becomes a home. The club has spent the summer on exactly that problem, adding entertainment on the Budweiser Plaza, more food and drink outlets, and expanded self-service beer stations specifically to get supporters in earlier and the atmosphere built before kick-off.

The squad has been sharpened rather than rebuilt. Merlin Rohl has arrived from Freiburg for around £22 million to add creativity in the final third; a genuine weakness under David Moyes last season. Tyrique George has made his loan permanent from Chelsea for around £18 million after impressing on Merseyside. The departures are all managed: Idrissa Gueye, Tyler Onyango, and long-serving captain Seamus Coleman left on free transfers with contracts allowed to expire.

Why they beat it: Moyes’ teams are difficult to beat and defensively organised by default. Add genuine creativity and a stadium that has learned to be loud, and mid-table becomes the floor rather than the ceiling.

The risk: goals. Rohl creates them; somebody still has to finish them.

Opening fixture: home to Crystal Palace, Saturday 22 August.

4. Bournemouth

What the market says: 20/1 for the top four and 9/1 to be relegated. The bookmakers cannot decide what this club is, which is usually where value lives.

Marco Rose has arrived from RB Leipzig and becomes the first Bournemouth head coach to lead the club into the Europa League. That sentence would have been absurd five years ago.

Rose is a serious appointment. He has managed at Salzburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Borussia Dortmund, and Leipzig, and he arrives at a club that has spent several seasons proving it can develop and sell without collapsing. That model is the point; Bournemouth have repeatedly lost key players and repeatedly replaced them well.

The Europa League cuts both ways here, but for a squad this age it is more likely to accelerate development than exhaust it.

Why they beat it: a manager with a considerably bigger CV than the club’s price suggests, and a recruitment operation that has been among the league’s best.

The risk: the same squad depth question facing Sunderland. European football is a lot of football.

5. Fulham

What the market says: 11/2 to be relegated, level with Crystal Palace and Leeds.

Fulham have made two signings that do not belong in a relegation conversation.

Gonzalo García has arrived from Real Madrid in a deal worth around £34 million, with attacking midfielder César Palacios joining for roughly £8.5 million. Whatever else is uncertain at Craven Cottage, the club has recruited genuine quality from one of the biggest sides in Europe, and that is not typical behaviour for a team the market expects to be scrapping.

The uncertainty is the dugout. Álvaro Arbeloa replaces Marco Silva, who gave Fulham several seasons of dependable mid-table football, and the honest assessment is that nobody yet knows whether Arbeloa is the right man. He is the least proven of the nine new managers.

Why they beat it: if Arbeloa is even competent, a squad with £42 million of fresh Real Madrid attacking talent should comfortably clear 11/2 relegation expectations.

The risk: it is entirely a managerial bet. There is no track record to lean on.

Opening fixture: home to Chelsea, Monday 24 August. A brutal start, and an immediate read on the new manager.

What the Market Is Missing

The common thread is that pre-season prices were largely set in May, before the managerial carousel finished turning and before most of this summer’s business was done. Nine new managers is not a detail; it is the defining feature of the season, and a market built on last year’s evidence cannot price it properly.

The precedent is recent and obvious. Last season Leeds finished 14th, and Sunderland finished 7th, both having just come up, and both having been written off in August.

Two cautions before backing any of this. Pre-season form is not evidence. Crystal Palace lost 3-0 to Bromley, Lens, and Freiburg under Pierre Sage, and it may mean nothing at all. And new managers need time, which is the one thing the fixture list does not provide. Three of these five open against opponents who will not be forgiving.

The most likely of the five to prove the market wrong is Nottingham Forest. Glasner is the best manager in this group; he has a squad suited to him, and he has no European football to distract from it.

The most badly priced is Sunderland. Seventh place and a European campaign should not leave a club fourth-favourite for relegation.

The season opens on Friday 21 August with Arsenal against Coventry.