Last Updated on August 25, 2026 9:10 pm by Erwin Noguera
Umar Nurmagomedov opened at -700. He is now closer to -450.
That is the story of the week. The market installed him as one of the heaviest main-event favourites of the year against a top-six bantamweight fighting in his own country, and money has been arriving on Song Yadong ever since.
There is a reason. Both men have beaten Deiveson Figueiredo in their last two outings: Umar by decision, Song by submission, and only one of them is being priced as though the fight is a formality.
Thirteen fights, eight Chinese fighters on home soil, and a card the UFC has deliberately built around them. Here is the full breakdown.
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UFC Fight Night Shanghai: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Umar Nurmagomedov -450 | Song Yadong +525 |
| Yan Xiaonan -210 | Denise Gomes +180 |
| Kai Asakura -300 | Aoriqileng +250 |
| Sumudaerji -170 | Alex Perez +145 |
| Liu Ce TBD | Levi Rodriguez Jr. TBD |
| Bilal Hasan -500 | Nilson Rojas +375 |
| Andre Lima -286 | Namsrai Batbayar +246 |
| Rei Tsuruya -500 | Kevin Borjas +385 |
| Sean Woodson -130 | Jack Jenkins +110 |
| Xiao Long -300 | Francesco Nuzzi +250 |
| Lawrence Lui -300 | Hector Santiago +250 |
| Julia Polastri -210 | Xiong Jingnan +180 |
| Cameron Nelson -135 | Ding Meng +115 |
| When? | Saturday, August 29 — Prelims at 3:00 am ET, Main Card at 6:00 am ET |
| Where? | SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center, Pudong District, Shanghai, China |
| Where Can I Watch It? | Paramount+ |
UFC Fight Night: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong
Why Bet on Umar Nurmagomedov?
Umar is ranked third at bantamweight and has rebuilt his position with back-to-back decision wins over Deiveson Figueiredo and Mario Bautista since losing to then-champion Merab Dvalishvili last year.
The advantage is the wrestling, and it’s why the opening number was so lopsided. Umar’s grappling is the family trade, and it travels: chain takedowns, positional control, and the ability to remove a striker’s best weapon for twenty-five minutes. Song is an excellent boxer. Excellent boxers have historically been the easiest opponents for this style.
There is also the five-round distance. Umar has been to the championship rounds against the best bantamweight in the world and did not fold.
Why Bet on Song Yadong?
Song is ranked sixth, fighting at home, and arrives off the best win of his career: a submission of Figueiredo that showed a dimension nobody credited him with.
That last detail counts more than the ranking gap. Song finishing a former flyweight champion on the ground undercuts the assumption that this is simply a wrestler meeting a striker with no answers.
The price is the argument. At +525 on opening, and still north of +350, Song is being treated as a substantial underdog despite being a top-six fighter in his own country against a man who was already beaten at this level.
Final Betting Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong
The stylistic read favours Umar, and the market agrees emphatically. The counter is that the number was never right at -700, and the money moving toward Song since then suggests plenty of people share that view.
Song’s route is to keep this standing, punish the entries, and force Umar into a firefight in front of a home crowd. Umar’s route is the one he has run his whole career.
FREE PICK: Nurmagomedov by decision. The pick is simple; the price is not. At -450, there is no value in the moneyline, and Song at plus money is the more interesting side for anyone taking a position.
UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes
Why Bet on Yan Xiaonan?
Ranked fourth at strawweight, a former title challenger, and fighting in China.
The advantage is striking and experience. Yan has faced the elite of the division repeatedly, and if this stays on the feet, she has the volume and accuracy to bank rounds against an opponent stepping up in class for the first time.
Why Bet on Denise Gomes?
Gomes is on a four-fight win streak and closing in on genuine title contention at 115 pounds.
The relevant history is Yan’s last outing: a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba in which she was badly outgrappled. That is a blueprint, and a fighter with momentum and something to prove has every reason to follow it.
Final Betting Analysis: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes
The whole fight is whether Gomes can get it to the mat.
Yan wins comfortably if this is a kickboxing match. Gomes wins if she can replicate what Jandiroba did, and she has not yet shown that level of grappling against this calibre of opponent.
FREE PICK: Yan Xiaonan at -210. The home fighter, the better striker, and a step-up opponent who has to change the fight to win it.
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng
Why Bet on Kai Asakura?
Asakura arrived in the UFC with an enormous reputation from Japan, and the market still respects it, installing him at -300 against a home fighter.
The advantage is speed and finishing instinct. Asakura is one of the most explosive bantamweights on the roster and does not need long to end an evening.
Why Bet on Aoriqileng?
The Chinese fighter is at +250 in front of his own crowd, and he is durable in a way that frustrates fast starters. Aoriqileng’s path is to survive the opening exchanges and drag Asakura into the later rounds where the explosiveness fades.
Final Betting Analysis: Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng
A classic pace-versus-durability matchup.
If Asakura lands early, this is over quickly. If he does not, the fight gets considerably more interesting than the price suggests.
FREE PICK: Asakura inside the distance. The moneyline at -300 offers little; the finish market is where the value sits.
UFC Fight Night: Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez
Why Bet on Sumudaerji?
Both men are ranked eleventh at flyweight, which is unusual and tells you the divisional committee cannot separate them either.
Sumudaerji is the taller, rangier fighter, and he is at home. At 125 pounds, length is a genuine structural advantage, and the crowd matters in a fight this close.
Why Bet on Alex Perez?
Perez has been in title fights. That is the shortest way to put it: the American has operated at the very top of this division and brings a level of experience Sumudaerji has not matched.
At +145, he is close to a coin-flip price against an opponent ranked identically to him.
Final Betting Analysis: Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez
Two fighters the rankings consider equal, with the market giving a slight edge to the home man.
Perez’s problem has been durability and activity. Sumudaerji’s has been consistency.
FREE PICK: Perez at +145. Taking plus money on the more accomplished fighter in a bout the rankings call even is the correct side of this.
UFC Fight Night: Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodriguez Jr.
Why Bet on Liu Ce?
A Chinese light heavyweight fighting at home, and the only man on this card with a genuine crowd advantage in a division where the UFC rarely gets to book one.
Liu’s path is to make this a fight rather than a shootout.
Why Bet on Levi Rodriguez Jr.?
Junior comes from a family that hits extremely hard and has built his reputation on exactly that. At light heavyweight, the power equaliser is more decisive than at any weight below.
Final Betting Analysis: Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodriguez Jr.
A note on the price: the opening line for this slot was posted against a different opponent before the matchup was finalised. No reliable number was available at the time of writing, so wait for the market to post rather than assuming anything.
Light heavyweight is the division where favourites lose most often, and neither man here is difficult to hurt.
FREE PICK: no play until the line posts. If you want the fight, the under is the more defensible position — this is unlikely to see the judges.
UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas
Why Bet on Bilal Hasan?
At -500, Hasan is one of the heaviest favourites on the card, and prices like that in the flyweight division usually reflect a clear gap in ability rather than reputation.
The Indonesian is expected to be better everywhere, and the matchmaking reflects an expectation that he wins.
Why Bet on Nilson Rojas?
At +375, the Peruvian is one of the longest prices of the evening, and the entire case is that MMA produces upsets at these numbers with some regularity.
He has nothing to lose, which occasionally produces the performance of a career.
Final Betting Analysis: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas
Hasan should win and should win clearly.
There is no value laying -500, and the underdog case is expectancy rather than analysis.
FREE PICK: Hasan, but do not bet it. Use him as a parlay leg if anything.
UFC Fight Night: Andre Lima vs. Namsrai Batbayar
Why Bet on Andre Lima?
The Brazilian is one of the more promising young flyweights on the roster and is favoured at -286 against a Mongolian opponent fighting in Asia.
Lima’s finishing ability is the reason for the price.
Why Bet on Namsrai Batbayar?
Batbayar brings the wrestling base common to Mongolian fighters and the physicality that comes with it. At +246 against a fighter still establishing himself, the price is generous.
Final Betting Analysis: Andre Lima vs. Namsrai Batbayar
A genuine prospect fight, and those are frequently closer than the numbers.
FREE PICK: Lima at -286. The better all-round fighter, but stake accordingly: flyweight prospects lose these regularly.
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas
Why Bet on Rei Tsuruya?
Another -500 favourite, and the Japanese flyweight is one of the more highly regarded young talents in the division.
Why Bet on Kevin Borjas?
The Peruvian at +385 is being written off entirely, and fighters priced this heavily against them occasionally fight with a freedom the favourite cannot match.
Final Betting Analysis: Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas
Tsuruya is the significantly better fighter, and the number says so.
FREE PICK: Tsuruya. No value at the price. If you like the fight, look at the method markets instead.
UFC Fight Night: Sean Woodson vs. Jack Jenkins
Why Bet on Sean Woodson?
The closest fight on the entire card at -130, and Woodson’s edge is physical. He is exceptionally long for featherweight and uses that range better than almost anyone in the division.
If he keeps this at distance, he wins rounds without being touched.
Why Bet on Jack Jenkins?
The Australian at +110 is essentially a pick’em, and his route is obvious: get inside Woodson’s reach and make it ugly.
Jenkins is the more physically robust fighter and the one better equipped for a scrap in the pocket.
Final Betting Analysis: Sean Woodson vs. Jack Jenkins
A genuine coin flip and the best value fight on the card.
Range against pressure, with the market unable to separate them.
FREE PICK: Jenkins at +110. Taking plus money in a fight this close, on the fighter whose game plan does not depend on keeping a taller opponent away.
UFC Fight Night: Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi
Why Bet on Xiao Long?
A Chinese bantamweight at home, favoured at -300, and one of the more experienced fighters on the preliminary card.
Why Bet on Francesco Nuzzi?
The Italian at +250 is the visitor in a hostile building against a fighter the promotion clearly rates. That is the case against him and, at this price, also the case for him.
Final Betting Analysis: Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi
Home advantage in China has been worth something historically, particularly in close rounds.
FREE PICK: Xiao Long at -300. The crowd, the experience, and the price all point the same way.
UFC Fight Night: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago
Why Bet on Lawrence Lui?
The New Zealander is at -300 and comes from the City Kickboxing tradition that has produced some of the sharpest strikers in the sport.
Why Bet on Hector Santiago?
The Brazilian at +250 will look to take this to the floor, which is the standard and correct approach against a striker priced this heavily.
Final Betting Analysis: Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago
Striker against grappler with a clear market opinion.
FREE PICK: Lui at -300. If the fight stays standing for two rounds, it will not reach a third.
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Xiong Jingnan
Why Bet on Julia Polastri?
The most interesting price on the card. Polastri is a -210 favourite against a Chinese fighter in China, which the market does not do lightly.
That number is a statement about form rather than reputation.
Why Bet on Xiong Jingnan?
Xiong is one of the most accomplished fighters China has produced, and she is at +180 in her own country. Whatever the recent form suggests, the experience gap in her favour is substantial, and the crowd will be at its loudest for this one.
Final Betting Analysis: Julia Polastri vs. Xiong Jingnan
Home fighters getting plus money is usually a signal worth reading. It is also occasionally an overcorrection.
FREE PICK: Xiong Jingnan at +180. The best underdog value on the card. A fighter of her calibre at plus money in front of her own crowd is a price worth taking.
UFC Fight Night: Cameron Nelson vs. Ding Meng
Why Bet on Cameron Nelson?
The Canadian is a marginal -135 favourite, and the market’s slight preference is based on the more complete skill set.
Why Bet on Ding Meng?
Ding is at +115 fighting at home in the final preliminary bout, and welterweight is a division where one clean shot rewrites an evening.
Final Betting Analysis: Cameron Nelson vs. Ding Meng
Effectively a pick’em with a home fighter getting plus money.
FREE PICK: Ding Meng at +115. Same logic as the Xiong fight; take the free points on the man the building wants to win.
Free Picks Summary
Main Card
- Umar Nurmagomedov (by decision — no value at the price)
- Yan Xiaonan -210
- Kai Asakura (inside the distance)
- Alex Perez +145 — best main-card value
- Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodriguez Jr.— no play until the line posts
- Bilal Hasan (do not bet it)
Prelims
- Andre Lima -286
- Rei Tsuruya (no value)
- Jack Jenkins +110 — best value on the card
- Xiao Long -300
- Lawrence Lui -300
- Xiong Jingnan +180 — best underdog play
- Ding Meng +115
Final Card Outlook
Thirteen fights, an early-morning start for North American viewers, and a card assembled almost entirely around Chinese fighters.
The best fight: Woodson against Jenkins. A -130/+110 line between a rangy featherweight and a pressure fighter is the closest thing to a genuine toss-up on the card.
The best value: Xiong Jingnan at +180. The market has a decorated Chinese fighter as an underdog at home, which is either sharp or an overcorrection. At that price, it is worth finding out.
The one to avoid: the main event moneyline. Umar should win, but the line has already moved a long way from -700, and there is no version of -450 that represents value.
The card’s real story is the market’s treatment of the hosts. Of the eight Chinese fighters on the card, only three are favoured. The UFC built this event around them, and the bookmakers are quietly saying most of them will lose.
Prelims begin at 3:00 am ET. The main card follows at 6:00 am ET on Paramount+.
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