2026 NFL NFC North Division Breakdown and Predictions

Last Updated on September 3, 2026 9:44 pm by Erwin Noguera

Detroit finished last in this division last season at 9-8.

They are the favourites to win it.

That fact alone explains the NFL NFC North better than anything else. All four clubs have won this division in the last five years, three of the four carry win totals of 9.5 or better, and the projections separate first place from last by roughly two wins. It is the tightest division in football, and a 9-8 last-place finish was enough to make you the favourite twelve months later.

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Here is the division six days out.

Detroit Lions — Favourites After Finishing Last

Division odds: +145 to +156. Model projection: 9.8 wins.

Detroit went 9-8 and finished fourth in 2025, which in most divisions would be a disaster and in this one was a season decided by tiebreakers. The market’s case for the bounce-back rests on two things: a softer schedule and the return of players who missed significant time.

Both are legitimate. Neither is a result yet.

The roster decision worth watching is at receiver, and it is risky. Detroit’s initial 53-man roster carries only four wide receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, and Tay Martin.

More surprising was who did not make it. Greg Dortch was released despite a strong camp in his first season with the club, and he had looked a lock as the fourth receiver and the punt returner. Cutting him leaves Detroit thin at the position and without an obvious answer in the return game.

Four receivers work until one of them pulls a hamstring in Week 2. For a team whose offence depends on St. Brown and Williams creating separation, that is a narrow margin.

Prediction: 10-7, division winners. The most complete roster in the division, with a schedule to take advantage of it.

Green Bay Packers — Their Best Defender Misses September

Division odds: +273. Model projection: 9.7 wins.

Look carefully at those two numbers next to Detroit’s. The models separate the Lions and Packers by one-tenth of a win. The market separates them by roughly twelve points of implied probability.

The reason is Micah Parsons, and it is a real one. Green Bay placed him on the Reserve/PUP list, which rules him out for at least the first four games while he recovers from a torn ACL and meniscus damage. He suffered it last December on a non-contact play while chasing Bo Nix and had surgery later that month.

That means no Parsons against Minnesota, the Jets, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. He has pointed to an October return, with Week 6 against Dallas (his former team) as the most optimistic target.

Losing the best pass rusher on your roster for a quarter of the season is a legitimate reason for a longer price. It is not a reason for a twelve-point gap when the projections are level.

The rest of the cutdown was busy. Green Bay completed three trades over the weekend and signed tight end Jonnu Smith, having missed out on Khalil Mack earlier in the offseason. This is a front office that has been actively working rather than standing still.

Prediction: 10-7, wild card. Same record as Detroit, and the better team from October onward.

Chicago Bears — Trading an Ascending Player in September

Division odds: +301. Model projection: 8.9 wins.

Chicago’s cutdown day opened with a headline: Gervon Dexter Sr., described around the league as an ascending defensive tackle, was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. They also released running back Salvon Ahmed and defensive lineman Marcus Davenport.

Trading a young interior lineman on the rise, days before the season, is not a move a team makes when it believes it is close. It is a move a team makes when it values what it got back more than what it had, and Chicago’s interior defensive line is thinner for it.

The schedule is the larger problem. Chicago holds one of the three hardest schedules in the league, alongside Miami and Green Bay. On top of that, Coby Bryant is out for four to six months, and the left tackle position has not been resolved.

An 8.9-win projection with the hardest slate in the division is a team that has to be good just to break even.

Prediction: 9-8. Better than the record will look, and undone by the calendar.

Minnesota Vikings — A Former First-Round Quarterback, Third on the Depth Chart

Division odds: +401. Model projection: 7.1 wins.

The clearest fall in the division, and the quarterback situation is the whole story.

Kyler Murray will start Week 1. Kevin O’Connell confirmed it. Minnesota signed Murray to a one-year contract in March following his release by Arizona, and he has won the job outright.

J.J. McCarthy did not just lose the competition; he appears to be third. O’Connell described him as the backup, but the depth chart places him behind both Murray and Carson Wentz. McCarthy struggled badly last season and has had health problems across both of his professional years.

He remains on the 53, and the reason is financial as much as developmental. His rookie contract is fully guaranteed at roughly $21.85 million, which makes releasing him or accepting a cut-rate trade unappealing. General manager Nolan Teasley has said he expects McCarthy to be with the team in Week 1 and to keep developing.

Trade speculation has followed him for months and will not stop. Minnesota can develop him behind Murray or revisit the market before the in-season deadline if a quarterback-needy team calls.

Prediction: 7-10. A one-year quarterback rental, a former first-round pick in limbo, and the weakest projection in the division.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Detroit Lions — 10-7; division winners2. Green Bay Packers — 10-7; wild card3. Chicago Bears — 9-8;4. Minnesota Vikings — 7-10

Division odds: Lions +145 to +156, Packers +273, Bears +301, Vikings +401. Model projections: Lions 9.8, Packers 9.7, Bears 8.9, Vikings 7.1.

The Positions Worth Taking

Green Bay at +273 is the best number on the board. The projections rate the Packers within a tenth of a win of the favourite, and the market prices them at nearly twice the odds. The gap exists almost entirely because Parsons misses the first four games; a genuine concern, and one that is fully resolved by Week 6. You are being paid a full extra tier for a four-game absence.

Detroit at +145 is short for a team that finished fourth. The bounce-back case is sound, and it is entirely priced in. Backing a favourite at that number, on a roster carrying four wide receivers, is paying full price for a squad with a specific breaking point.

Chicago at +301 is fair rather than generous. The 8.9 projection is reasonable, and the price reflects it. What the price does not fully reflect is the schedule, which is among the three hardest in football.

Pass on Minnesota at +401. A 7.1-win projection is not a division-winning profile at any price, and a one-year quarterback signing is not the foundation of a run.

A note on the market’s margin. Add the implied probabilities of all four teams, and you get roughly 111%. That is a wider cut than the two-team divisions we have covered this week, and it is the cost of a genuinely open race. Shop lines here more carefully than anywhere else.

What Decides It

Whether Parsons comes back in October. Green Bay’s ceiling is the highest in the division, and it does not exist until he plays. Week 6 against Dallas is the date to circle.

Detroit’s receiver depth. Four wide receivers and no clear punt returner. One hamstring changes the offence.

Chicago’s left tackle. An unresolved blindside against the hardest schedule in the division is the sort of combination that turns a 9-8 team into a 7-10 team by November.

Whether McCarthy is still a Viking in December. Minnesota’s season is a holding pattern. The interesting question is not whether they win the division; it is what they do with $21.85 million of guaranteed quarterback sitting third on the depth chart.

Four teams which have all won this division since 2021, separated by two projected wins, with the reigning last-place finisher installed as the favourite. Nobody should be confident here, and the price on Green Bay is where that uncertainty is being sold cheapest.