Premier League: Can Manchester City Disappear from Elite Football?

Last Updated on September 28, 2026 5:29 pm by Erwin Noguera

Manchester City is top in the Premier League. Five matches, five wins; nobody has taken a point off them.

And on Thursday, an independent commission reportedly found them guilty on 114 of the 115 charges the Premier League brought against them.

Both of those things are true at the same time, which is why the question in the headline has stopped being rhetorical. No sanction has been decided. But the Premier League’s own handbook lists expulsion among the penalties available to a commission, and for the first time that word is being used in connection with a club that is currently leading the division.

Here is what has been decided, what has not, and what it could mean.

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What Was Actually Decided

Reports on 25 September indicated that an independent commission ruled against Manchester City on 114 of 115 charges.

Three qualifications matter enormously and are being lost in coverage.

First, the ruling has not been published. The reporting is sourced rather than official, and the club has not been presented with a completed process.

Second, no punishment has been determined. The commission’s findings on liability and its decision on sanctions are separate stages. As of now, only the first has reportedly been reached.

Third, City deny wrongdoing and are expected to appeal. The club has consistently denied the allegations throughout, and a spokesperson told The Athletic: “The Premier League process remains ongoing, with significant elements to be completed, and subject to strict confidentiality.”

Anyone telling you City has been relegated, expelled or stripped of titles is ahead of the facts. None of those has been decided.

What the Charges Cover

The case centers on the seasons between 2009/10 and 2017/18: a nine-year window covering City’s rise from newly wealthy club to serial champion.

The charges group into several areas: the accuracy of financial information submitted to the league, manager and player remuneration, compliance with UEFA and Premier League financial regulations, and allegations concerning the club’s cooperation with the investigation itself.

That last category is the one lawyers keep pointing at. Failure-to-cooperate charges are treated seriously in their own right, separately from the underlying financial questions, because they go to the integrity of the process rather than the size of a sponsorship deal.

The origin is older than the charges. The Premier League’s investigation ran for roughly four years and began after the German outlet Der Spiegel published leaked documents in late 2018.

What Sanctions Are Available?

The Premier League handbook gives a commission a wide range, and the range is the story.

A points deduction. The most expected outcome, and one with recent precedent in the English game at a smaller scale.

An unlimited fine. Financially significant for most clubs; for this one, the least meaningful option on the list.

Expulsion from the league. It exists in the rules. It has never been used against a club of this stature, and treating it as likely would be a mistake, but it is not invented by journalists; it is written down.

Title-stripping has been widely discussed and is not among the sanctions confirmed as under consideration.

The 40-to-60 Point Question

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has previously suggested a deduction of between 40 and 60 points would be logical if City were found liable for a substantial proportion of the allegations.

Put that against the current table. City is on 15 points from five matches. A 40-point deduction applied to this season would leave them at -25, below Tottenham and Fulham on two points, with 33 matches to climb out. A 60-point deduction would be mathematically close to unrecoverable.

That is the arithmetic behind the headline question, and it is why “disappear from elite football” is no longer a figure of speech. A club does not need to be expelled to leave the elite. It needs one season in the Championship, and the revenue and squad consequences follow on their own.

The caveat is substantial. That figure is one expert’s estimate of a logical penalty, offered before the findings, not a number any commission has proposed. Deductions of that scale have no precedent in the Premier League.

Why Nothing Happens Immediately?

This will not be resolved this season, and possibly not this calendar year.

The sanction stage must conclude. City will then appeal, and the appeal process in a case of this size and complexity is measured in months. Any sporting penalty would most plausibly apply to a future season rather than retroactively to a campaign already under way: though that too is for a commission to decide.

So, the practical position for the next several months is the one we have now: a club leading the Premier League while a process that could reshape it runs in the background.

Can They Actually Disappear?

The honest answer has two halves.

On football grounds, no. City lost Guardiola after ten years and twenty trophies, sold Rodri to Barcelona, let Bernardo Silva and John Stones leave on free transfers, and lost six more first-team players; then broke their transfer record twice in one window, signing Elliot Anderson for £116 million and Enzo Fernández for £125 million. They are top of the league with five wins from five under a manager appointed in June. No squad in England is better placed to absorb turnover.

On regulatory grounds, it is now genuinely possible in a way it was not last week. A 114-of-115 finding, if it stands, is not a technical breach. It is the league’s case being upheld almost in full across nine seasons, including on cooperation. The sanction that follows the finding of that scope is not likely to be a fine and a warning.

But “possible” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. The most probable outcome is a significant points deduction, applied after an appeal, to a club that will still have the best squad and the deepest resources in the division when it takes effect.

What It Means on the Pitch Right Now

Nothing, and that is the strange part.

City visits no different fixtures. Erling Haaland is not suspended. Enzo Maresca’s side are three points clear and have conceded five goals in five matches: three of those in one afternoon against Sunderland.

Arsenal is second on 12 and have already lost 3-0 at Brighton. Brighton has the best goal difference in the league at +11. Liverpool is sixth with three draws. The title race is not being decided in the hearing room this month.

For anyone betting on the market, though, there is unpriced risk here that is worth naming. Title and top four positions are prized in football. A pending sanction of unknown size, timing, and target season is not a football variable, and it is not visible in the odds. That is not a reason to bet against City. It is a reason to understand that a long-term position on this club currently carries a risk the price does not describe.

The Honest Verdict

Manchester City has not been expelled, relegated, or stripped of anything. They have reportedly been found liable on almost every charge, and the sanction stage has not begun.

What changed on Thursday is not City’s league position. It is the range of outcomes. A week ago, the question of whether this club could fall out of elite football was an argument about squad turnover and a new manager. It is now an argument about what a commission does with a finding of this size, and how long an appeal takes.

They are not disappearing this season. Beyond that, for the first time in almost 20 years, the answer does not depend on how well they play.