Liga MX: Liguilla Race Down to the Wire

Last Updated on November 6, 2026 2:03 pm by Erwin Noguera

Three clubs are tied on 29 points at the top of the Liga MX Apertura, and only one of them has a home game left.

Fourteen of the eighteen can still reach the Liguilla with two rounds to play. Monterrey and Querétaro are sitting ninth and eleventh with a game in hand on everybody, and Monterrey’s three remaining fixtures are all away while Querétaro’s three are all at home.

There is no Play-In this tournament. Eight teams qualify, and the ninth goes home, which makes the two-point gap between Santos in eighth and Querétaro in eleventh the most consequential two points in Mexican football right now.

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The Table After Matchday 15

Two rounds remain for sixteen clubs and three for Monterrey and Querétaro. Matchday 16 is November 6 to 8, the postponed Querétaro–Monterrey fixture is November 14, Matchday 17 is November 20 to 22, and the Liguilla begins November 25.

Three on 29, and Two of Them Are Finished at Home

América, Guadalajara and Cruz Azul are level on points and separated by goal difference alone: plus fifteen, plus eleven, plus ten.

América have two away games left, at Pumas and at Tigres. Cruz Azul have two away games left, at Tigres and at Guadalajara. Guadalajara have one of each.

So the only home fixture remaining among the top three is Guadalajara against Cruz Azul on November 22, the final matchday. Two clubs are tied on 29 points, playing each other last, with one of them at home.

That game is the tournament. It settles first place, it settles the top-four seed that comes with it, and it is the last fixture on the calendar before the bracket is drawn.

Our advice on the title and top-four markets is to wait for it. Three clubs on identical points with five of their six remaining games away from home is not a table you can price with two weeks to go.

Monterrey Play Three Away. Querétaro Play Three at Home.

This is the cleanest structural fact in the Apertura, and it cuts in opposite directions for two clubs one point apart.

Monterrey are ninth on 21 with a game in hand. Their three remaining fixtures are at Toluca, at Querétaro and at Pumas. Not one is at home.

Querétaro are eleventh on 20 with a game in hand. Their three remaining fixtures are against Puebla, Monterrey and Necaxa. All three are at home.

Monterrey’s maximum is 30, and Querétaro’s is 29, both above the 28 that Tijuana, León and Santos can each reach. The two clubs outside the places have the two highest ceilings outside the top five.

And then the market disagrees with the obvious reading. On the November 14 fixture at Querétaro’s ground, Monterrey are the favourites at +110 against Querétaro’s +220, stripping the vig; that is, Monterrey 45.0% and Querétaro 29.5%, worth 1.60 expected points to the visitors and 1.14 to the hosts.

Three home games is a schedule, not a result. Querétaro have scored 18 goals in 14 matches: 1.29 a game, the seventh-lowest rate in the division, and of the clubs still chasing a place only Puebla and Atlético de San Luis score less often. The market has noticed.

Eighth Place Is Santos, and Nobody Fancies Them

Tijuana, León, and Santos are all on 22 points, separated by goal difference: plus four, plus two, plus one.

Look at what each of them has left.

Tijuana are the only club still in the race whose last two fixtures are both against mathematically eliminated opposition. We checked all fourteen live clubs; nobody else has more than one.

Santos are the ones in trouble, and the odds say so out loud. At Atlante on Friday, they are +220 underdogs against a club that cannot qualify: 29.6% no-vig against Atlante’s 45.1%, worth 1.14 expected points to Santos and 1.61 to a side playing for nothing.

Then they host León, who are level with them on points. Santos have drawn once in fifteen matches: seven wins, one draw, seven defeats, the most polarised record in the division. That is a club that does not grind out the single point it may well need.

Four Are Out, and All Four Can Still Decide It

Tigres, Atlante, Necaxa, and FC Juárez are mathematically eliminated. Tigres’ maximum is 21, Atlante’s is 20, and eighth place already has 22.

Two weeks ago only Necaxa and Juárez were gone. Tigres and Atlante have joined them.

And every one of the four still plays at least one club fighting for a place.

Tigres are the ones to watch. They are out, they are at home twice, and the two visitors are separated from the top of the table by nothing at all. An eliminated club with two kingmaker fixtures is the most dangerous thing on a run-in.

A Correction to Something We Published Last Week

On October 30 we wrote that Atlas were “the only side in the top eight being outscored by its opponents,” sitting fourth on 24 points with a goal difference of minus one.

That is no longer true, and we are saying so rather than letting it stand. Atlas have since gone to 27 points, and their goal difference is now level at zero: 26 scored, 26 conceded. More to the point, no club in the current top eight has a negative goal difference. The weakest margin up there is Santos at plus one.

The underlying argument survives, narrowed. Atlas are still fourth with the worst goal difference of the eight, they are still the club whose league position flatters their margin, and under this format fourth place still carries a tiebreak that decides knockout ties outright. The specific claim expired after one matchday. The reason we made it did not.

Why Fourth Place Is Worth More Than It Looks

We explained this in full last week, so briefly: there is no Play-In this tournament. The top eight go straight to two-legged quarterfinals, seeded 1v8, 2v7, 3v6 and 4v5.

The part that matters for betting: away goals have been scrapped for the knockout rounds, and a tie on aggregate is resolved in favour of the better-placed team in the general table.

Seeding is not home advantage here. It is a tiebreak that wins ties outright, and it is why the gap between fourth and fifth is worth more than the gap between fifth and sixth.

The Bottom, Briefly

There is no relegation in Liga MX and has not been since 2020. What the bottom of the table decides is money: a cociente table determines fines paid into the Liga de Expansión, reported at 160 million pesos split between the bottom three: 80, 47, and 33 million.

FC Juárez are last in the general table on 8 points with a minus-22 goal difference, by far the worst in the division. We could not retrieve a current Apertura 2026 cociente table and are not going to guess at one, so we will say only that Juárez’s general-table position is the worst of the eighteen and leave the cociente arithmetic to the official source.

What We Would Do

Tijuana to finish in the top eight, and this is the position we hold most confidently. They are sixth on 22 with the best goal difference of the three clubs on that mark, and they are the only live club in the division playing two eliminated teams in their last two fixtures. Necaxa away and Atlante at home is the softest finish available to anybody in the race.

Against Santos holding eighth, at half stakes. Underdogs at an eliminated Atlante, then León at home, and a 7-1-7 record that says they do not take draws. We are sizing it at half because 22 points may yet be enough if Monterrey’s three away games go badly; the bet is on Santos dropping out, not on a specific club replacing them.

Atlante +110 at home to Santos on Friday. The market makes an eliminated club the favourite against the side holding the last qualifying place, and the market is right. 45.1% to 29.6% no-vig is a wide margin for a game between clubs eight points apart in the table.

Pass on the title and on top four until November 22. Three clubs tied on 29, five of their six remaining fixtures away from home, and the last of them is Guadalajara against Cruz Azul. There is no edge in pricing that, before it is played.

And the fixture we would mark on the calendar above all others is Tigres against Cruz Azul this Saturday. An eliminated side at home to a club tied for first. Cruz Azul are 45.4% to win it. That is not a number you want when you are level on points with two rivals and your other remaining game is also away.

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