Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Betting Odds and Free Pick

Last Updated on July 16, 2025 11:35 am by Erwin Noguera

The boxing world prepares for the return of Manny Pacquiao to the ring after four years for a fight against Mario Barrios.

Manny Pacquiao laces up his gloves once again for a full WBC welterweight title fight against reigning champion Mario Barrios.

At 46 years old, Pacquiao’s comeback is equal parts historic and risky. If he defeats Barrios, he will become the first male boxer to win a world title as a Hall of Famer.

Manny was inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame last month, on June 8, and is now returning to the lion’s den.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all the boxing predictions, the final bets for this bout, and the odds for each fight.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Manny Pacquiao?

Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 knockouts) hasn’t fought since losing a unanimous decision to Yordenis Ugas in August 2021. That night, he looked human, still fast, still dangerous, but far from the whirlwind that once cut through the flyweight to super welterweight divisions. But anyone who excludes him entirely is making a mistake.

Pacquiao has always defied logic. His professional career began when Michael Jordan was still playing for the Bulls. He has won world titles in eight weight classes. His work ethic is legendary. And don’t forget: before the Ugas defeat, he looked strong in beating Keith Thurman in 2019. That win left him looking pretty good, considering Thurman’s size and durability.

Still, this isn’t 2010. Manny’s opponent is much more active and younger, and he will be stepping into the ring after nearly four years of inactivity, against a legitimate champ.

Why Bet on Mario Barrios?

San Antonio native Mario Barrios (29-2-1, 18 KO’s) is not yet a household name, but he has quietly built a solid resume. After setbacks against Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman, he has come back stronger, showing maturity and poise in the ring.

Barrios won the WBC interim welterweight title by outpointing Ugas in September 2023, a fight in which his jab, footwork, and discipline stood out. He was elevated to outright champion in June after Terence Crawford got the “champion in recess” status. It may not be the way he envisioned becoming a world champion, but Barrios is not a paper champion. He has grown into the role.

More importantly, he’s active. He last fought Abel Ramos earlier this year and looked strong. He’s 11 years younger, has fresher legs, and a lot less mileage. He also has a solid 71-inch reach and a 5’10” frame size that could matter against a smaller, older Pacquiao.

Final Betting Analysis: Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios

If this were 2019, we would pick Pacquiao without hesitation. Even at 40, he would dance circles around Thurman. But this is 2025, and those four years, plus his Hall of Fame induction, don’t exactly suggest he is still elite.

Barrios, while not elite in the Gervonta/Crawford sense, is crafty enough to box with confidence, hit from distance, and use his size advantage. We expect him to fight a smart, conservative fight, trying to avoid the kind of exchanges that Pacquiao thrives on.

Pacquiao, meanwhile, will likely pick up the pace early, trying to steal rounds before fatigue sets in. If he can come in and land combinations, it will remind fans why they loved watching him. But sustained aggression could generate openings for Barrios’ counters.

Ultimately, we see this going the distance. Pacquiao will have his moments, and he’ll win some rounds, but Barrios’ activity, conditioning, and youth should carry him down the stretch.

That said, we’re leaning towards a decision win for Mario Barrios.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios Betting Pick: Mario Barrios