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Toluca vs. Chivas: Liguilla Quarterfinals Preview

Last Updated on May 9, 2024 7:05 pm by Erwin Noguera

The Liguilla MX is on track after the celebration of the first two matches from the quarterfinals’ first leg. Yesterday night, Chivas got a narrow victory over Toluca at the Akron Stadium and now the Red Devils must return the favor, or they are out.

The Rebaño got the advantage at the aggregate score after a solitary goal by Victor Guzman towards the end of the game, in a match that was pretty balanced overall. It would have not been surprising if it ended in a draw. 

The hope for Toluca resides in their attacking output, as they were much more aggressive than the hosts, doubling them in chances created and with four shots on target. Now, in front of their fans, they hope to find the effectiveness they lacked.


Saturday, May 11, 10:10 pm ET at the Estadio Nemesio Diéz

Moneyline odds: 

Toluca 1.929

Chivas 3.565

Draw Offs: 


Where can I watch it? 


Why Bet on Toluca?

Toluca came into the quarterfinals as the 3rd placed team in the regular season. Even though they were ahead of their current opponents by a mile on the board and were much more aggressive, they still lost the first leg, but not by much.

The Red Devils had a slightly difficult time playing at Chivas’ Stadium in the first leg, falling to take possession as they would have liked. The good news is that the narrow margin allows them to put their trust in their incredible offense, the most prolific in the regular season (38). 

Toluca was an excellent home side during the tournament, winning seven games from eight andlosing the other. They also scored a whopping 20 goals at home while only conceding five.

Why Bet on Chivas?

Chivas came into the quarterfinals as the 6th placed team in the season. However, their momentum towards the end of the regular season is the most remarkable fact, as they ended on a five-match winning streak at the top of a seven-match unbeaten run. Their victory in the first leg extends their winning streak to six.

On their recent good run, what has characterized the Rebaño Sagrado is their defensive solidity, conceding goals in just one game (their 3-2 victory over Puebla). That good level at the back has maintained them with the upper hand in games where the offense was not at its best, and that happened a lot in this Liga MX edition. They were the third team with the least goals scored in the top ten (24).

Chivas was an average visitor in this tournament, with four wins, two ties, and three losses.That is the same number of wins that, for example, Monterrey, Tigres, Pachuca, and Cruz Azul.

Final Betting Analysis: Toluca vs. Chivas

Sooner or later, Toluca’s poor form as a visitor will end up costing them, as they will be unable to raise the trophy by performing well only at the Nemesio Díez. Now, whetherwill it be in this quarterfinals or the future stages, is yet to be seen.

This series has a special feeling, as Alexis Vega and all the issues surrounding his departure from Chivas are still in the air.

This matchup is pretty balanced on the stats. In the last 51 games between them, the Red Devils won 16 times and the Rebaño 15. Meanwhile, in the last five matches, the former won three and the latter two. Their regular season encounter ended with a 3-2 victory for Chivas.

We’ll go for a 2-1 victory by the locals, allowing them to get their pass to the semis due to the tiebreaking rules of the league.

Go for a victory for the locals at 1.929. If you bet $100 at such odds, you could get $92.9 for a total payout of $192.9.

Toluca vs. Chivas Betting Pick: Toluca

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