Monterrey vs. Toluca Betting Odds and Preview

Last Updated on January 9, 2026 5:33 pm by Erwin Noguera

The Mexican champions Toluca will make their Clausura MX 2026 debut by visiting one of the top title contenders and a perennial powerhouse: Monterrey.

Rayados are coming off a strong tournament in which they reached the semifinals, where they were eliminated by this same opponent due to their position in the standings.

Toluca, meanwhile, secured the championship on penalties after defeating Tigres and will now set its sights on winning a third consecutive title.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all the predictions for the Liga MX Clausura 2026, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.

Monterrey vs. Toluca Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Monterrey?

Rayados begin 2026 still carrying the bitter taste of the Apertura 2025. They reached the semifinals, winning the first leg 1–0 but losing the second leg 3–2, finishing level at 3–3 on aggregate and being eliminated because Toluca held the higher position in the overall standings.

It was a tough blow for Monterrey, which also lost its captain for this season. The 39-year-old center back Sergio Ramos departed at the end of the year, leaving a significant void after contributing not only defensive solidity but also eight goals in 34 matches.

So far, the club’s reinforcements include Mexican defender Alonso Aceves, who arrives from Pachuca, and Argentine midfielder Luca Orellano, previously with FC Cincinnati. The South American will not be available yet, as his MLS transfer paperwork is still pending. Last season, he recorded three goals and six assists in 35 appearances.

There are high expectations for Anthony Martial this year. The 30-year-old French midfielder joined in September to be the team’s star, but in 377 minutes spread across 12 matches, he failed to score or register an assist.

For this opener, Domenec Torrent will be without Orellano as well as Lucas Ocampos and Víctor Guzmán, both of whom are still recovering from injuries.

Why Bet on Toluca?

The reigning two-time champions of Mexican football are the main favorites to lift the title once again. Toluca came off winning the Apertura MX after finishing the final level 2–2 on aggregate against Tigres and then prevailing 9–8 in the penalty shootout.

The ‘Diablos Rojos’ kept their key players, led by Paulinho, the tournament’s top scorer, who is being tipped for a return to the Portugal national team ahead of the World Cup, along with captain Alexis Vega. Brazilian winger Helinho also deserves special mention, as he raised his level toward the end of the tournament and was the standout performer in the final, scoring once and assisting another in the 2–1 win in the second leg.

Midfielders Sebastián Córdova, Pavel Pérez, and Jorge Díaz Price arrived from Tigres, Necaxa, and Cancún FC, respectively, to further strengthen an already solid squad. For now, the only departure has been midfielder Juan Pablo Domínguez, who moved to Club León.

Final Betting Analysis: Monterrey vs. Toluca

Toluca are the reigning champions and are still hungry to achieve what América did just over a year ago. Monterrey comes into this match wounded, having lost their captain, and their main new signing is still unavailable. It should be a very even contest, much like the semifinal, and we believe it will end in a draw.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor Monterrey, with a Moneyline of -122, while Toluca is listed at +280, and the draw is priced at +284.

In the previous tournament, these teams faced each other three times, with Toluca winning both matches at home and Monterrey claiming the one played on their own ground. The last five meetings have all gone in favor of the home side, and the most recent away win was by the ‘Diablos Rojos’ back in 2024.

Go for a draw in the Moneyline. If you bet $100 at +284, you will gain $284 for a total payout of $384.

Monterrey vs. Toluca Betting Pick: Draw