Broncos vs. Patriots Preview and Free Pick

Last Updated on January 23, 2026 2:21 pm by Erwin Noguera

The AFC will crown its champion and Super Bowl representative this Sunday when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots, the two best teams in the conference.

The Broncos are coming off an overtime win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Patriots defeated the Houston Texans.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all NFL predictions, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Broncos?

Denver finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.After a dramatic 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional round, the Broncos advanced to the conference title game.

The Broncos were the favorites just a few days ago, especially after finishing first in the conference, but all of that changed a couple of hours later when the worst was confirmed: Bo Nix will miss the rest of the season due to injury.

It was a cold shower for Sean Payton, who will be without his star quarterback and will have to hand the reins to Jarrett Stidham. At 29 years old, Stidham has not played in an official game since January 7, 2024, in Week 18, when they lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 27–14. This will also be his first postseason appearance.

Against the Bills, they recorded two interceptions and three sacks, with Alex Singleton leading the way with 14 combined tackles, while Talanoa Hufanga added 10.

On offense, RJ Harvey had scored in five consecutive games, totaling six touchdowns during that stretch, but has now gone two games without finding the end zone. Against the Chargers in Week 18, he managed just 28 yards on 15 carries, while versus the Bills, he totaled 20 yards on six attempts.

Why Bet on Patriots?

For many, we are beginning to witness the start of the Drake Maye era with the New England Patriots. The reality is that the team has not delivered this level of results or excitement since the days of Tom Brady.

It is worth remembering that although the Patriots finished second in the conference, they did so with the same record as the Broncos.They arrive riding a five-game winning streak, two of which have come in the postseason. First was a 16–3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, followed by a 28–16 victory against the Houston Texans.

In both games, the defensive side of the ball has stood out. The Patriots have allowed just one touchdown this postseason, clearly showing where their strength lies. Against the Texans, they intercepted C.J. Stroud four times and sacked him three times, while Christian González recorded nine combined tackles.

As for Maye, in his first postseason, he has completed 33 of 56 passes for 447 yards, with four touchdowns, two interceptions, and 10 sacks. Not bad at all for a second-year player who is putting up numbers worthy of MVP consideration.

Offensively, wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has 141 yards on seven receptions this postseason with one touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 123 yards on 26 carries.

Final Betting Analysis: Broncos vs. Patriots

There is no doubt that Bo Nix’s absence is a massive blow for the Broncos, and while Stidham is a solid quarterback, his first game in a couple of years cannot be a Conference Championship against a defense like the Patriots’. Drake Maye will lead New England to the Super Bowl.

The numbers at Gambyl Exchange list the Patriots as the favorites, with their moneyline set at -250, while the Broncos are priced at +205.

The last time these teams met was on December 24, 2023, at this same stadium, and the Patriots won 23–26. The Broncos lead the all-time series with 31 wins and 24 losses, and also hold the edge in the postseason with a 4–1 record. This will be the third time they meet in a Championship Game, and in the previous two meetings, the Broncos won at home in Denver.

Go for a win for the Patriots. If you bet $100 at -250, you will gain $40 for a total payout of $140.

Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Pick: Patriots