Chief vs. Jaguars for MNF Preview and Free Pick

Last Updated on October 3, 2025 2:28 pm by Erwin Noguera

Week 5 of the NFL closes with a great game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

The Jaguars have surprised at the start and are in the AFC race, coming off an away win against the San Francisco 49ers.

On the Chiefs’ side, it seems they have shaken off that poor start, and last weekend they rolled over the Baltimore Ravens.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all the predictions for the NFL, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a very good start. With three wins and one loss, they are second in the AFC South, holding the same record as the Indianapolis Colts.

They defeated the Panthers, Texans, and 49ers, while their only loss came against the Bengals. Their last game was versus San Francisco on the road, where they won 21–26, despite not scoring any points in the fourth quarter.

Trevor Lawrence, who has had an up-and-down season, completed 21 of 31 passes for 174 yards and threw a touchdown to tight end Hunter Long. On the ground, running back Travis Etienne Jr. scored for the third straight game. Etienne is the third-leading rusher (394 yards on 65 attempts) and also has the second-longest run (71 yards).

One highlight from Lawrence’s performance against the 49ers was that he was neither intercepted nor sacked. He is the quarterback with the best sack-per-attempt average: 3 in 144 attempts.

Defensively, linebacker Devin Lloyd intercepted Brock Purdy twice and now has three interceptions this season, tying him with Kevin Byard of the Chicago Bears for the most in the NFL.

Why Bet on Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs want to reclaim the throne they lost last season, but their start was anything but encouraging. Two straight losses made it seem like the franchise’s magic had ended, but they have now earned back-to-back wins, and the good feelings have returned.

They fell to the Chargers and the Eagles, a direct conference rival and their conqueror in the last Super Bowl, before defeating the Giants and the Ravens. Their most recent game against Baltimore was a 37–20 victory, making a strong statement.

It was a great game for Patrick Mahomes, who completed 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards and four touchdowns, while also avoiding interceptions and being sacked only once. All the scores came through the air, with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco, and Tyquan Thornton each finding the end zone.

Mahomes leads the team in rushing yards (130), which shows the team is not at its best on the ground, with injuries playing a role in that. At least one running back is expected to join the roster in the coming days.

Final Betting Analysis: Jaguars vs. Chiefs

A close game is expected because the Jaguars are in good form and the Chiefs are not at their best. However, Kansas City and, above all, Mahomes showed very good things last weekend, so we believe they will come away with a very tight victory.

The numbers at Gambyl Exchange have the Chiefs as the favorite, with their Moneyline at -189, while the Jaguars are listed at +150.

The last time they played was on September 17, 2023, when the Chiefs won 9-17 on the road. Kansas City has now won eight straight against the Jaguars, who have not beaten them since 2009.

Go for a win for the Chiefs. If you bet $100 at -189, you will gain $53 for a total payout of $153.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Betting Pick: Chiefs