Patriots vs. Texans Betting Odds and Preview

Last Updated on January 16, 2026 11:23 am by Erwin Noguera

The New England Patriots and Houston Texans face off in what promises to be a very entertaining matchup in the AFC Divisional Round of the NFL.

The Patriots are coming off a 16–3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game where, despite the victory, much more was expected from them.

The Texans, meanwhile, crushed the Steelers 6–30 in Pittsburgh after a dominant fourth quarter.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can explore all NFL predictions, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Patriots?

The New England Patriots are looking to move past the Tom Brady era and focus on ushering in the Drake Maye era. The second-year quarterback is having an outstanding season, battling for the MVP, and has already led his team to their first postseason win since 2019, when they lifted the Super Bowl.

After three seasons with losing records, they finished this year 14–3, winning their division and placing second in the conference with the same record as the top seed, the Denver Broncos. In the Wild Card round, they relied on a strong defensive performance, though the offense was less impressive. It was a 16–3 win, holding the Los Angeles Chargers to just a field goal, but scoring only one touchdown themselves.

Maye completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards, with one touchdown pass and one interception. He finished the regular season with a 72% completion rate, the highest among all starting quarterbacks. Overall, he completed 354 of 492 passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while also adding four rushing touchdowns on 103 carries.

Tight end Hunter Henry scored the only touchdown in the last game and leads the team in receiving touchdowns with eight, while TreVeyon Henderson totaled 189 carries for 938 yards and nine touchdowns over the course of the season.

On defense, they sacked Justin Herbert six times and allowed Los Angeles to convert just 1 of 10 third-down attempts.

The only concern is cornerback Christian González, who took a hit in the last game, although he has already returned to practice.

Why Bet on Texans?

The Houston Texans are coming off a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the surprise was not so much the victory itself, but rather the lopsided scoreline, as it ended in a convincing 6–30 result after a dominant fourth quarter.

It is worth noting that at the start of the final quarter the score was just 6–7, but in that period the Texans scored three touchdowns, one coming off an interception and another after recovering a fumble.

This performance reinforces the idea that the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. During the regular season, they were the second team to allow the fewest points with 295, just three more than the Seattle Seahawks. They are also among the league leaders in interceptions, with a total of 19 in the regular season, with four players recording four each. Against the Chargers, they added another interception by Calen Bullock, who now has five in total.

The concern lies on the offensive side of the ball, as Nico Collins is injured and is very unlikely to be available on Sunday. The wide receiver is C.J. Stroud’s top target, having posted 71 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns during the regular season, while also adding one rushing score. The second-leading receiver on the team is Jayden Higgins, who has 525 receiving yards.

C.J. Stroud has thrown at least one touchdown pass in six straight games. However, without Collins, he will likely have to rely heavily on rookie running back Woody Marks, who had a strong performance against the Chargers with 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown, although it was his first game with more than 74 rushing yards.

In their 24 seasons, the Texans have never reached an AFC Championship Game and hold a 0–6 record in the Divisional Round.

Final Betting Analysis: Patriots vs. Texans

Without Collins, the Texans will likely rely on their strong defense to slow down the Patriots, who have a talented Drake Maye waiting to capitalize on the first mistake and lead his team to victory—something we believe he will achieve.

The numbers at Gambyl Exchange list the Patriots as the favorites, with their moneyline at -180, while the Texans are priced at +150.

The last time these two teams met was on October 13, 2024, at this same stadium, and the Texans won 21–41 with three touchdown passes from each quarterback: Maye and Stroud.

Go for a win for the Patriots. If you bet $100 at -180, you will gain $56 for a total payout of $156.

Patriots vs. Texans Betting Pick: Patriots