UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks

We are taking a trip to Newark, New Jersey, as the UFC prepares for what looks like it will be a highly anticipated fight card, with two titles on the line in the main event and co-main event.

We go right into the Main event fight, which will not only be a title fight but a Rematch in the Bantamweight division, as the aggressive wrestler Merab Dvalishvili looks to defend his title for the second time against Sean O’Malley, from whom he took the belt in the first place.

The co-main event also sees a title fought for as we look right into the Female Bantamweight Division, as the recently Crowned Julianna Peña looks to make her first defense as she clashes with a dangerous Kayla Harrison.

Besides the Main and Co-Main events, we also get a clash between Kelvin Gastelum & Joe Pyfer in the Middleweight division, a bantamweight clash that pits Mario Bautista and Patchy Mix, and also the Welterweight encounter between Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland.

Besides the five banger matches on the main card, we also have eight prelim fights that mix in just a few of the up-and-comers with a lot of names that might ring the bell for the veteran and hardcore UFC fans out there, so we can all enjoy the event on the world’s most famous Octagon.

At Gambyl Exchange, you can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Fight Card Odds and Info

UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley

Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?

Merab Dvalishvili is perhaps one of the most exhausting fighters to fight against, and after his incredible win against Umar Nurmagomedov, he just boosted that hype many times over.

Dvalishvili’s endless cardio, high-pace wrestling, and now, evidenced in his recent fight against Umar, scrappy boxing all make for a dangerous battle against an O’Malley who is not at his best at the moment.

Why Bet on Sean O’Malley?

O’Malley has yet to fight after losing his belt to Merab at UFC 306, and that does not sit right with us because we don’t think he’s earned a rematch.

Out of the four of those five rounds, O’Malley didn’t show that much that gave Merab trouble. In the final round, Merab let O’Malley strike, and it looked like he could steal a Knockout in the last few seconds. However, that didn’t happen.

We think and firmly believe that the wrestling pressure of Merab is going to overwhelm O’Malley and shut down a lot of the offensive output he could otherwise use.

O’Malley is going to have to use a lot of lateral movement to keep Merab at bay, and if he can lull Merab into thinking “he’s just moving around here and there, he’s not gonna strike,” and then stand his ground to blitz forward, we could see a massive upset.

Final Betting Analysis: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley

Merab is still susceptible to getting knocked out. O’Malley is still a dangerous sniper who has a 4-inch reach on him and whose only chance to win is on the feet, so any second on the feet that Merab chooses to engage O’Malley is a moment in which he will look to land that fight-ending strike, whether it’s a knee up the middle or boxing combinations and counters.

However, the moment O’Malley gets caught in a wrestling hold by Dvalishvili, he probably loses that round because Merab will go for 5-10 takedowns in that single round.

UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

Why Bet on Julianna Peña?

Peña is a former champion with a gritty style, but her recent performances have raised serious concerns. Her win over Raquel Pennington was underwhelming, and her striking accuracy, landing just 33% in that bout, leaves a lot to be desired.

More importantly, her takedown defense has shown clear vulnerabilities. Against someone like Kayla Harrison, a dominant grappler with elite physicality, that’s a serious liability. Peña might find some limited success if she can keep the fight standing, but that’s a big “if.”

Why Bet on Kayla Harrison?

Harrison is exactly what the hype suggests: a takedown magician with incredible strength and high skill. She has the strength, skill, and style to take Peña down and control her from start to finish.

The only real concern is how she handles the weight cut to 135 lbs. She carries a lot of muscles and may face a steeper cut than most bantamweights. Still, assuming she makes the weight well, Harrison has a clear path to victory through pressure and dominance on the ground.

Final Betting Analysis: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

This matchup looks like a stylistic mismatch. Peña’s biggest weakness lines up directly with Harrison’s biggest strength. Unless Kayla struggles with the cut or gets caught early, we expect her to control this fight and get her hand raised.

The plan is simple for Harrison to wrestle and keep Peña down.

There is a possibility of a finish here. However, we wouldn’t want to hazard a guess as to how or when because Peña could melt at any moment, but she could also come into this fight ridiculously prepared.

UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Why Bet on Kelvin Gastelum?

Kelvin Gastelum brings durability and experience to every fight. He’s known for his solid chin, which has helped him survive some brutal exchanges over the years. However, that toughness also highlights a key vulnerability—he gets hit often. Against a powerful striker like Joe Pyfer, that could become a serious issue.

Despite the danger, Gastelum’s experience against top-tier competition can’t be overlooked. He has gone five rounds with elite names such as Adesanya, Whittaker, and Cannonier. That kind of resume gives him a clear advantage in terms of composure and adaptability.

Why Bet on Joe Pyfer?

Pyfer is a rising prospect with real knockout power. He hasn’t faced someone at Gastelum’s level yet, but his performance against Barriault turned heads. His punches are heavy, and he lands them with speed and precision. Pyfer hits like a light-heavyweight, which could be a game-changer in this matchup.

He also carries a reach advantage to accentuate that kind of power, especially at range. If Gastelum’s defense falters early, Pyfer has the tools to end the fight quickly.

Final Betting Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

We believe the size difference will be massive, making it more difficult for Gastelum to make this fight look competitive unless there’s a lot of clinch fighting or dirty boxing.

This is a true test of experience vs. firepower. Gastelum offers proven grit, fight IQ, and five-round stamina. Pyfer brings explosive finishing ability and a physical edge. If Pyfer doesn’t finish the fight early, Gastelum likely take over in the later rounds.

UFC 316: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Why Bet on Mario Bautista?

Bautista is coming off one of the most disheartening performances we have seen in quite a while, and that was when he fought Jose Aldo, with the word “fought” being perhaps the wrong word here.

Now, Bautista is a well-rounded fighter for the most part. He has quite a good striking but specializes in the wrestling and grappling department.

However, Mix has fought at the highest levels of the game outside of the UFC, and we don’t believe Bautista will have that much success against Mix this weekend. If Bautista fights at a high enough pace, we still think that it’s possible he can probably pull off a win here.

Why Bet on Patchy Mix?

Patchy Mix is one of the best fighters outside of the UFC to fight in the UFC.

With numerous accolades in Bellator, a near-perfect record, flawless in the cage, and one of the slickest submission specialists in the sport, Patchy Mix can achieve greatness this weekend.

We think his height and reach advantage will play massively in his favor here as a grappler because he has the propensity to go for a body triangle off the back and work to an RNC.

Final Betting Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Bautista will prefer to keep it standing, but Mix isn’t shy from a fistfight and has the cardio to push a high pace as well. He just has a preference to tie his opponents up in the clinch and work for a takedown or to get the back so he can backpack people.

We expect the length and height of Mix to play in his favor as a grappler to allow him to land the win.

UFC 316: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Why Bet on Vicente Luque?

Luque surprised us the last time he fought because we instantly counted him out after his loss against Buckley. He mentally broke past those fears from his brain bleeding problem and showed us signs that he was back, or at least he was back for that fight.

Luque can win here if he takes the fight to the ground and grapples, as he is a much better grappler than Holland, but will he survive any striking exchange that Holland forces as long as the fight remains standing? Likely not.

Luque’s striking will perhaps work against him in this fight because whilst he has that nasty power in his hands, it’sgoing to be difficult to outstrike against a rather unorthodox yet explosive fighter like Holland.

Luque is highly experienced in fighting against taller and longer fighters, such as Randy Brown, who has perhaps a similar striking style to Holland in that he almost exclusively uses long attacks to make the most use of his reach advantage.

Why Bet on Kevin Holland?

Kevin Holland is one of the most unpredictable fighters in the UFC. His length, speed, and creativity make him a dangerous matchup for anyone, especially someone like Luque, who will be giving a significant reach advantage.

That said, there are questions surrounding Holland’s current motivation. He often treats his time in the cage more like entertainment than a serious career move. His laid-back attitude, while entertaining, raises concerns about how well he can perform against a relentless and disciplined fighter like Luque.

Luque is a fantastic grappler and submission specialist, and if he can get the fight to the ground, it could very well be over quite quickly for the Trailblazer.

Final Betting Analysis: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Luque is at a significant reach disadvantage here, and that always plays into Holland’s hands. Although we will say that Holland has not looked like the Holland of old, he will be more difficult to break down due to the fact that he’s become unpredictable.

Still, 81 inches of reach is an anomaly in the Welterweight division and something that Luque is going to struggle with early in the fight if he cannot get a takedown, so keep an eye on the clean straights or just punching combinations from Holland in the first round as Luque makes his reads and adjustments.

UFC 316: Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

Why Bet on Bruno Silva?

Bruno Silva enters this bout as a significant underdog, which is somewhat surprising given the threat he still poses. While Joshua Van has looked nearly flawless so far, Silva should not be overlooked. He remains a dangerous and experienced fighter with a well-rounded skill set.

Silva is known for his solid all-around game, but he probably won’t find the same success on the feet that he did against fighters like Durden or Rodriguez. That’s largely due to Van’s sharp, technical boxing—some of the cleanest in the division and a textbook example of what modern MMA striking should look like.

In terms of power, Silva still can end the fight if he catches Van off guard in the first round, as that is typically the slowest round for Van.

Why Bet on Joshua Van?

Joshua Van is just 23 years old, yet he already boasts one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the division. What he’s accomplished in such a short time is impressive, especially when you consider the level of competition he’s faced. His striking is technical, clean, and precise—and he’s only getting better.

While he does have a reputation as a slow starter, it’s important to clarify what that means. Van may not throw with high volume early on, but he’s often still the more effective striker. He picks his shot well, lands with accuracy, and frequently edges out the first round despite the lower output.

Once the second round begins, Van tends to flip a switch. His pace increases, his pressure builds, and his ability to bully opponents becomes evident. He thrives in that mid-to-late fight range where others start to fade.

Final Betting Analysis: Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

Silva is going to have to be a wild boxer in the first round to at least get ahead on the scorecards or find that chin, and since Van is a bit of a slow starter, we think Silva will find some success early on.

Due to Silva’s typical output in the first round, we’ll see Van on the defensive here. He is likely to be on the back foot and use a lot of lateral movement to avoid the explosive output of Silva, and since Silva is hitting that glorious age of 36 in a matter of months, we suspect that he could slowly gas himself out if he chooses that approach, thus giving Van a whole lot more confidence in finding his strikes against a potentially fatigued Silva.

UFC 316: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Why Bet on Azamat Murzakanov?

Azamat Murzakanov is one of those rare cases: a fighter who entered the UFC later in his career yet still looks explosive, dangerous, and incredibly sharp. Despite his age, he continues to display excellent kickboxing and overall ability to demolish his opponents.

Now, it’s understandable if Ribeiro’s size advantage initially raises eyebrows: he does have a big reach and height edge. But range alone isn’t enough. To truly capitalize on that frame, you need technical skill and fight IQ, not just power. And in this matchup, Murzakanov has a clear edge in both areas. He’s the cleaner, more experienced striker, and if we’re comparing tools, he operates on a different level.

When it comes to the grappling and wrestling of this fight, we don’t expect Murzakanov to do anything other than perhaps clinch up so he can disengage and throw a potentially fight-ending punch, and we think that’s a fair possibility, given he needs to be within the pocket to land his strikes.

Why Bet on Brendson Ribeiro?

Brendson Ribeiro’s length and reach can definitely pose a serious threat. He’s the kind of fighter who can overwhelm opponents early if they’re not careful. If he’s able to come out aggressively and disrupt Murzakanov’s rhythm right away, he might create enough chaos to land something big and change the course of the fight.

There’s no doubt Ribeiro has the power to knock Murzakanov out, especially if he’s able to strike from outside Azamat’s counters. However, the concern with Ribeiro lies in his striking form. He tends to overextend and throw wide shots, which often leaves big openings.

Defensively, Ribeiro’s stance is aggressive but also risky. He keeps his arms wide, throws from odds angles, and often sacrifices structure for offense. That might throw off some opponents, but against someone as technical as Murzakanov, it could backfire.

Final Betting Analysis: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

This is a double-edged sword of a matchup for Ribeiro. Either Murzakanov picks apart his loose, awkward, striking defense and finds his finish—or Ribeiro manages to overwhelm Azamat early with aggression and unpredictable power. Ultimately, it comes down to whether Murzakanov can stay composed, push through the early storm, and capitalize on the technical gaps in Ribeiro’s game.

UFC 316: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Why Bet on Serghei Spivac?

Spivac is a bit of a boogie man in this division due to his relatively high level of wrestling. And let’s be honest—wrestling in the heavyweight division can feel like cheating when most guys are just swinging hammers. Spivac thrives in this kind of environment where few can handle relentless grappling pressure.

What’s going to happen here is pretty clear—Spivac is going to wrestle. Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, might try to show off some semblance of takedown defense, but even his best effort likely won’t be enough to stop the inevitable.

On the feet, Spivac isn’t anything special. He’s more of a “club and sub” kind of fighter rather than a refined striker. He’s slower and stiffer than most, but that won’t matter much if the fight hits the mat early. And it should because the longer it stays standing, the more comfortable Cortes-Acosta will feel. Still, we don’t expect it to stay upright for long.

Why Bet on Waldo Cortes-Acosta?

Cortes-Acosta is coming off a KO win over Ryan Spann, and whilst it’s not the most fantastic win on anyone’s record, it shows that Cortes-Acosta does have that raw power that makes Heavyweight so exciting, but with that said, we have never really seen much greatness from him.

66% takedown defense is the official stat for Waldo Cortes-Acosta, but none of those opponents he faced and who tried to get takedowns on him can hold a candle to what Spivac can do, and that’s the biggest factor here.

This is a massive step up in wrestling competition for Cortes-Acosta, and if he is unable to keep the fight standing, he’s in trouble.

Final Betting Analysis: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

We expect the typical from Spivac and expect him to be very, very sticky, keeping close against the cage, dragging the fight to the ground, and then just laying all that weight on him.

Cortes-Acosta has very low activity and output, with occasional bursts of fast strikes and kicks, but ultimately, it feels like he is coming up against a disastrous matchup in Spivac.

UFC 316: Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson

Why Bet on Khaos Williams?

Williams hasn’t been the most active fighter, with some periods in which he fought yearly. It’s quitenice to see more of him now, especially as he enters his prime years.

Williams is a physical fighter with serious fight-ending power in his hands, with a 3-inch reach advantage and more experience in the UFC than Gustafsson.

Khaos Williams is many times more dangerous on the feet than Giles is, so Gustafsson will have to be careful of the power coming his way because Williams will throw.

Why Bet on Andreas Gustafsson?

Gustafsson is someone who we raved about because of how well he handled his opponent on DWCS. However, he was paired up against a rather terrible Trevin Giles, who was clearly on a downhill trend in his career.

Gustafsson must be careful because, unlike Giles, Williams is a big threat on the feet for anyone, and the 3-inch reach advantage could pose a problem for Andreas.

We are not completely counting out Gustafsson here. He is still a highlighted fighter for us due to his DWCS performance.We believe this opponent change and a rather large step up in competition will be problematic for Gustafsson unless he neutralizes William’s punching power with wrestling and control.

Final Betting Analysis: Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson

The longer the fight remains standing and at boxing distance, the more likely we’ll see Williams let his hands go, feeling more comfortable, and start building combinations. If you let a striker become comfortable, that’s a recipe for disaster.

UFC 316: Ariane Lipski da Silva vs. Cong Wang

Why Bet on Ariane Lipski da Silva?

The problem with Lipski is that her ceiling was never top-level. She was always going to be that lower-echelon gatekeeper for up-and-coming fighters who haven’t yet broken through the rankings.

On the feet, she’s excellent, her Muay Thai strikes are beautiful to watch, and her clinch strikes are fantastic, but it seems like she isn’t on the level of these bigger names, and in this particular case, we feel like she’s going to be very much outgunned by Wang.

Where Lipski is likely to thrive is on the ground, but we have seen Wang defend takedowns reasonably well, although it’s still somewhat clear to us that as a kickboxer, her takedown defense will soon be exposed.

If the fight hits the mat, there may be moments Lipski could quickly find submissions, but we hope that Wang has improved her get-up game.

Why Bet on Cong Wang?

Wang’s only highlight in the UFC that’s positive for her is her KO over Victoria Leonardo.

We do think that Wang’s boxing is going to give Lipski a whole heap of trouble, she’s one of the sharper strikers that we’ve seen recently in this division, and whilst she doesn’t use a lot of head movement or footwork, her steady pressure and her unmoving stance is pretty great to see, it just means she’s ready to strike regardless of being on the defensive or the offensive.

Lipski might get into a clinch without transitioning to a body lock. Wang would likely find a way to power out of it, disengaging and resetting to boxing distance.

Final Betting Analysis: Ariane Lipski da Silva vs. Cong Wang

Does the takedown threat of Lipski stifle the kicking output of Wang? Possibly, but Wang still has dangerous hands, and that would be the most immediate thing that Lipski has to worry about.

The only way we see Lipski winning is by taking advantage of some Judo throws in the clinch and working from there because engaging in a traditional stand-up battle only to go for takedowns doesn’t work against Wang.

We think Wang has this one, but we want to see another finish this time because frankly, a KO win over Leonardo seems like it is inevitable.

UFC 316: Joo Sang Yoo vs. Jeka Saragih

Why Bet on Joo Sang Yoo?

Joo Sang Yoo enters the UFC undefeated, and what a fascinating debut this is shaping up to be.

He fights with a wide-arm stance and keeps his hands relatively low, which might raise some concerns, but it’s also part of what makes him dangerous. He doesn’t throw in high volume, but when he does, it’s calculated and sharp. His piston-like counter right is a serious weapon, and his hip dexterity lets him fire off powerful kicks from both stances.

However, that low hand becomes risky against a heavy-handed brawler like Saragih. However, Saragih tends to overcommit and load up on his strikes, which could play right into Yoo’s game.

Why Bet on Jeka Saragih?

Saragih is chaos incarnate—an explosive, unpredictable fighter capable of highlight-reel finishes.

His wild style includes spinning back fists, jumping attacks, and heavy overhands. When they land, they land hard. But those same moves, when overused or poorly timed, drain his cardio and open him up defensively.

He’s a threat early, especially if he catches Yoo cold. But history suggests that his gas tank is a liability, and if he doesn’t get an early finish, things could fall apart quickly.

Final Betting Analysis: Joo Sang Yoo vs Jeka Saragih

We know what Sarahig brings to the table: power, flash, and unpredictability. But that comes with a price. As the fight progresses, those flashy attacks will work against him more than for him. Yoo’s composed, sniper-like style should shine over time, especially once Saragih starts slowing down. We expect Yoo to pick his shots, stay disciplined, and potentially cruise to a decision victory.

UFC 316: Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Why Bet on Quillan Salkilld?

Quillan Salkilld enters this matchup with clear advantages in power, speed, and reach. That unique reach will give him a significant edge on the feet, especially if he’s able to dictate the pace and keep the fight at range. The question is whether he can maintain that control if Ashmouz decides to wrestle.

Now, the success rate of that kind of approach against someone like Salkilld is completely unknown, and we can only speculate because we have only seen so much of him.

The concern we have for Salkilld is his ability to fend off takedowns, as we haven’t seen him defend that many takedowns, but we have seen him go for Merab amounts of takedowns in his DWCS fight against Gauge Young, and to pull off that many attempts spread out over three rounds of high-pace action is impressive.

Why Bet on Yanal Ashmouz?

Yanal Ashmouz has two UFC fights under his belt, so there’s a bit more tape on him, but honestly, nothing that blows us away.

He’s going to need to rely heavily on his wrestling to win this one. On the feet, he’s outgunned—his striking is basic, his defense is lacking, and he’s likely to eat a lot of shots just trying to close the distance. That massive reach disadvantage doesn’t help either.

While we can’t completely rule out his chances if he’s able to pin Salkilld against the cage or grind him down, there’s little we’ve seen that suggests he has the tools to dominate this fight. He’ll need to absorb damage to get inside, and that’s a dangerous game to play against someone like Salkilld.

Final Betting Analysis: Quillan Salkilld vs Yanal Ashmouz

As long as this fight remains standing, we will give Salkilld all the advantages on the feet. It’s just defensively that we are not too confident in saying he will be able to keep Ashmouz off him since Ashmouz clearly will have to wrestle.

We genuinely feel like Salkilld is going to look phenomenal at range whilst Ashmouz tries desperately to enter the range and get that wrestling going to some degree of success, so we think Salkilld is going to take the victory here.

UFC 316: MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

Why Bet on MarQuel Mederos?

The major advantage for MarQuel Mederos heading into this bout is that he had a full camp—originally preparing for Westin Wilson Oki—which already puts him a step ahead of Choinski, who took this fight on very short notice.

Mederos brings solid boxing to the table. While his output isn’t overwhelming, is active enough to keep opponents uncomfortable. The key challenge here, however, lies in the stylistic shift—Choinski is far more grappling-heavy than Oki, and that difference may force Mederos to adjust quickly.

Still, we expect Mederos to have the edge on the feet. He’s the more fluid striker and will likely outland Choinski if he can maintain the distance. The big question is whether he can handle the grappling pressure.

Why Bet on Mark Choinski?

Mark Choinski is a grappler through and through. His success has largely come from smothering opponents and hunting submissions. That said, there’s not much meat on the bone when it comes to the quality of his wins—most notably on the regional scene, where he beat opponents with lackluster records (like a 2-8 fighter and another who was 8-7).

That’s the general problem with new promotions: the lack of decent talent is quite obvious. Anyway, we expect Choinski to waste a little time trying to get the takedown. It’s clear that he needs to get the takedowns going to start his submission setups, but if he is unable to pace himself on the ground or even in trying to get the takedown, his gas tank will be tested.

Final Betting Analysis: MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski

This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with a few added complications—namely, Mederos recovering from illness and Choinski stepping in late and cutting weight.

We’re siding with Mederos here, but it’s a low-confidence pick. Neither fighter is entering this bout at a hundred percent, and the outcome may hinge more on who manages their physical condition better than pure skill.

Still, with a full camp and superior striking, Mederos gets the nod.

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley Betting Pick: Merab Dvalishvilli

Peña vs. Harrison Betting Pick: Kayla Harrison

Gastelum vs. Pyfer Betting Pick: Joe Pyfer

Bautista vs. Mix Betting Pick: Patchy Mix

Luque vs. Holland Betting Pick: Kevin Holland

Silva vs. Van Betting Pick: Joshua Van

Murzakanov vs. Ribeiro Betting Pick: Azamat Murzakanov

Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta Betting Pick: Sergei Spivac

Williams vs. Gustafsson Betting Pick: Khaos Williams

Lipski da Silva vs. Wang Betting Pick: Cong Wang

Sang Yoo vs. Saragih Betting Pick: Joo Sang Yoo

Salkilld vs. Ashmouz Betting Pick: Quillan Salkilld

Mederos vs. Choinski Betting Pick: MarQuel Mederos