Last Updated on July 17, 2025 8:23 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC brings us a high-caliber card as we take the trip to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans this Saturday, where the 3rd fight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier will take place, with the BMF belt on the line for everyone to enjoy.
We expect the main event fight to go to the last rounds with these two going at it, both with the respect from their previous bouts, and a message to send with the BMF Title on the line.
The co-main surprisingly sees Paulo Costa in it, and we get Roman Kolyov coming in what could be an interesting middleweight clash, which comes right after the Trailblazer faces Daniel Rodriguez in the cage.
The event is a stacked card, 14 fights from start to finish, and a lot of known names in the 9 Prelims and the five main fight card of a pretty exciting event.
At Gambyl Exchange, you can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Fight Card Odds and Info
| Max Holloway -120 | -102 Dustin Poirier |
| Paulo Costa +219 | -270 Roman Kopylov |
| Kevin Holland -476 | +333 Daniel Rodriguez |
| Dan Ige -182 | +149 Patricio Pitbull |
| Michael Johnson +384 | -556 Daniel Zellhuber |
| Kyler Phillips TBD | Vinicius Oliveira TBD |
| Marvin Vettori +181 | -217 Brendan Allen |
| Francisco Prado -152 | +121 Nikolay Veretennikov |
| Ateba Gautier -536 | +371 Robert Valentin |
| Adam Fugitt +425 | -714 Islam Dulatov |
| Jimmy Crute -294 | -217 Marcin Prachnio |
| Ryan Spann -238 | +183 Łukasz Brzeski |
| Bruno Ferreira -769 | +435 Jackson McVey |
| Carli Judice -294 | Nicolle Caliari +223 |
| When? | Saturday, July 19th, at 6:00 pm ET, 5:00 pm CST, 4:00 pm MT, and 3:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Smoothie King Center in Newark, New Orleans, Luisiana |
| Where Can I Watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Why Bet on Max Holloway?
Hollowayis making a move back to 155 lbs. This time, he’s filling out with muscles, and we believe it’s a great move because he belongs at 155.
Holloway’s boxing has always been a little better than Poirier’s, and perhaps more so now because Poirier has taken a lot of damage in the last two years, making him a bit susceptible to getting hurt.
He’s a stand-and-bang fighter. He thrives in the same environment that Holloway thrives in. We know that Holloway himself is coming off a KO loss. However, a singular KO loss is not as detrimental to brain health and KO susceptibility as numerous heavy strikes that he received when he fought Benoit Saint-Denis, Michael Chandler, and Justin Gaethje.
We believe we’re going to see Poirier get hurt a fair bit more than Holloway. Alongside that, Holloway is coming off his first KO loss in his career, and that can perhaps change a few things stylistically for Holloway.
Holloway can withstand being punched, but now that he’s moving up to 155lbs permanently, we can expect a more intelligent boxing defense from him, or we could get a classic Holloway throwing fists without holding back.
Why Bet on Dustin Poirier?
Poirier is a much more well-rounded fighter than Holloway, so expect to see a lot more leg kicks, perhaps some wild attacks due to this being his final fight. Ultimately, we don’t expect to see Poirier fight any differently than he’s used to.
What we expect from Poirier is gorgeous boxing, especially his amazing left hook, and some dangerous leg kicks, as those have been key to his victories in the past. In terms of grappling, it’s hard to ignore that he’s a solid BJJ fighter when the fight hits the mat, but we are very doubtful that he will want to take this fight to the ground in front of his hometown crowd.
Final Betting Analysis: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Expect these two warriors to come out and put on a performance that will put them in the history books of combat sports.
We think Holloway will finally best Poirier this time around because of the accumulated damage that Poirier has received.
UFC 318: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
Why Bet on Paulo Costa?
Costa needs no introduction. He has been in some iconic fights in the last six years, from his war against Romero to his weight miss against Marvin Vettori.
Paulo Costa is a powerful and pressure-heavy striker, although his defense is questionable as he absorbs more than he throws. Costa’s takedown accuracy could allow him to shift the fight to the mat and exploit his submission upside if the stand-up battle doesn’t go his way.
Why Bet on Roman Kopylov?
Kopylov has been a fun fighter to watch. His kickboxing isn’t fascinating or unique, but it’s clean and sharp, and we can see him landing the body kick in this fight time after time.
Kopylov is good at springing out that body kick then moving laterally for another angle to strike, we think that he might fatigue in the later rounds due to the constant lateral movement and such but we believe the more he tags Costa’s body, the less aggressive Costa will be, the more his hands will drop and the more available that head kick will become.
Kopylov being on the back foot could be detrimental to him on the scorecards because it would seem that Costa is the more aggressive fighter. Still, Kopylov’s striking will be the main story in this fight.
Final Betting Analysis: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
We expect Costa to be walking down Kopylov in this fight with relentless pressure, but we wouldn’t say that he will win this fight with that alone, because even on the back foot, Kopylov is very good.
We expect Costa to throw leg kicks early and often to slow down Kopylov’s mobility. While we know he’s going to throw some hands, outside of a flush KO, we don’t see him winning against such a technician like Kopylov.
UFC 318: Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Why Bet on Kevin Holland?
Holland is coming off an anaconda choke submission win over Vicente Luque, whichsurprised us because we thought he was going to box all the way.
Kevin Holland has a substantial reach advantage of 8 inches. It will be a hard task for Rodriguez to fight around without using his kicks to shut down the boxing of Holland, but still, the speed and power of Holland is a fair few steps ahead of what Rodriguez can generate, despite Rodriguez having that “old man power”.
Why Bet on Daniel Rodriguez?
On the other hand, Rodriguez is very much one of those mainstay fighters who have moments of greatness and also moments in which he doesn’t look so great.
Rodriguez does have a lot of power in his hands, but at an 8-inch reach disadvantage, the only real way he can land with power is through a collision against Holland, in which a wild exchange happens and someone’s chin gets truly tested.
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Final Betting Analysis:
We believe we will see an immense output from Rodriguez from the second round onwards, compared to Holland, who is a theoretical 5-round high-pace fighter.
Holland, when he’s switched on, is an absolute juggernaut of a fighter, unstoppable and one of the best fighters we will see.
Unfortunately, he has been hard to track and predict as his performances haven’t been consistent. We believe we will see him at top speed on Saturday.
UFC 318: Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull
Why Bet on Dan Ige?
Ige is as fantastic as they come, and he showed what Dynamite he has in his hands. The main advantage Dan Ige has over Pitbull would be on the feet with the striking. His boxing is top-level, and he carries power so well, which could test the chin of the 38-year-old.
Dan Ige can switch stances to mask the power shots, going from Southpaw to Orthodox to enter range and attack the legs, switching back to Southpaw to throw that special hook.
Why Bet on Patricio Pitbull?
Pitbull was getting torn to shreds when he fought Yair, and that doesn’t bode well when fighting someone like Ige. The writing is on the walls for this one, it seems.
Pitbull has one clear path to victory here, and that’s to wrestle and submit. To do any of that, though, he has to penetrate through the extremely sharp boxing of Ige, and that’s no easy task.
Final Betting Analysis: Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull
Pitbull’s only way to counter anything that Ige does is to wrestle, and we believe that’s exactly what Pitbull will try to do this weekend.
We’d argue that Ige could also find a submission, besides his regular paths to victory, especially a front headlock choke like a guillotine or a brabo.
Still, age is not on Pitbull’s side, and as much as we want to give him a lot of praise, the age factor is really in play here. Lastly, we believe that Ige has fought against much better competition, and that plays into this match too.
UFC 318: Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber
Why Bet on Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber?
Johnson has certainly not looked like his old self in recent years, and we know that he is coming off a fantastic Knockout win against Ottman. However, Ottman is more one-dimensional, and Johnson operates with efficient striking.
Johnson still possesses excellent boxing instincts, particularly in the early rounds of a fight. However, given that Zellhuber has faced a tough battle against Ribovics and emerged from it competitively, it’s difficult to determine if Johnson can keep up with that level of talent.
Why Bet on Daniel Zellhuber?
At 26, the rangy Mexican prospect brings youth, reach, and technical striking tools to the octagon, with a Kickboxing-heavy arsenal and aggressive counter-striking.
Zellhuber has a good defensive base, and that’s going to be pivotal in ensuring success throughout the second and third rounds. We suspect Johnson will be very dangerous in the first round as he tries to break through Zellhuber’s guard.
Zellhuber’s boxing is going to look good, as he can fight defensively and offensively while keeping it safe with a high defense and his chin tucked. All of these things will make it difficult for Johnson to chip at the chin of Zellhuber, and we think that lowers the chances of Johnson winning.
Final Betting Analysis: Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber
We believe that Zellhuber will be too much for the aged fighter. We expect some wrestling to happen from Johnson, but we don’t know if it will be out of desperation or a well-thought-out game plan.
This is the old guard being fed to the new guard, and we think Zellhuber will get it done.
UFC 318: Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Why Bet on Kyler Phillips?
Kyler Phillips is a well-rounded fighter with solid wrestling and great BJJ. However, Oliveira has faced and defeated fighters like Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov. That could be the reason why Phillips is presented as the underdog in this fight.
The one thing we are most concerned about is Phillips being too reserved on his cardio. When he fought Rob Font we saw him ran out of gas, that often leads to two things happening in a fighters’ next bout, either they have trained their cardio as a primary focal point of their camp or they fight reserved, and that’s just going to give Oliveira more time to land his attacks and deal the damage.
Why Bet on Vinicius Oliveira?
Oliveira is truly special. He seemingly came out of nowhere with a nice Knockout win on the DWCS, then he just blasted through his competition with barely any resistance.
Oliveira is very well-rounded; his striking may not be super technical, but it’s unpredictable, and that’s mostly due to the distance he strikes at and the stance he fights, low hands and relatively at a safe distance, where he can counter effectively, and he can kind of feint his way into range effectively.
Final Betting Analysis: Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Oliveira is particularly hard to read as an analyst. He is nearly impossible to break down, and we can only describe him as someone who freestyles in the cage. And that can be hard to fight against, and we think Phillips is going to find that out after the first round.
UFC 318: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
Why Bet on Marvin Vettori?
Vettori is an interesting case for the Middleweight Division. He has consistently been in some of the most gritty fights in the UFC of the past few years, with epic bouts against the likes of Paulo Costa, Jack Hermansson, and Jared Cannonier. He has been through some intense battles and always fought just as hard in the final rounds.
Our slightest concern for Vettori isn’t his striking, output, or his cardio. It’s his takedown defense, and considering that Allen’s primary way to win his fights is to take his opponents down and submit them, we do think that Vettori is either going to be stifled with his output due to that takedown threat, or he’s going to fall into a trap of throwing too heavy which leaves openings for a level change from Allen.
Why Bet on Brendan Allen?
Allen is coming off two consecutive losses to Imavov and Hernandez. In both fights, we found a noticeable pattern: when Allen feels uncomfortable or struggles to initiate his takedown attempts, he tends to become stagnant and unsure of how to get out of that situation.
We do think that early on we’ll see what his gameplan will be, and if he successfully gets Vettori to the ground, then we could very, very well be in for an upset here, but if, as we predict, Vettori comes out guns blazing and just thriving on the feet, stuffing those takedowns and marches down Allen.
Final Betting Analysis: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen
We expect Vettori to come out with sheer aggression. He is on a losing streak, and he used to be a dangerous threat to the upper echelon of the division, so he sees this fight as a massive opportunity to bounce back and restart his journey as a contender.
This will be too much for a slow-starting Allen to handle.
UFC 318: Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Why Bet on Francisco Prado?
Prado is a fairly decent striker who is sometimes a little plodding but has a whole heap of power in his hands and isn’t afraid to let his opponents know about it early.
Prado’s style is very explosive; he tends to wait around a little bit, moving back and forth, sometimes laterally, before lunging in for a string of heavy, dangerous strikes.
He may look sloppy at times, but he makes up for it with his power and ability to turn up the aggression extremely quickly.
Why Bet on Nikolay Veretennikov?
Veretennikov is certainly an interesting one to talk about because he’s decent when he lets his hands go, but sometimes stands far too still and doesn’t let his hands go, and that’s pretty disappointing because he can be very sharp when he does become a bit aggressive.
Our concern is that Veretennikov tends to back up to the cage fence far too quickly, giving his opponents too much time to start the action. He’s a bit reactionary and just doesn’t seem as active in the cage as Prado is.
Final Betting Analysis: Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Prado is by no means a clean striker; he can load up and swing and be as readable as a billboard, but when he lands and closes the gap to his opponent to fight in the pocket, he’s dangerous.
We think he can knock out Veretennikov this weekend if he explodes early with a fresh tank of gas.
UFC 318: Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin
Why Bet on Ateba Gautier?
Gautier is coming off an explosive finish over Jose Medina, nothing but dangerous power and clean technique.
Now, Gautier is a patient fighter; he likes to gauge the range before he strikes, and he’s likely to do that this weekend through jabs. He has some fantastic jabs, and his striking fundamentals are solid, and you can tell just by looking at him that he carries some raw natural power.
Why Bet on Robert Valentin?
Valentin is 0-2 in the UFC and is likely to continue that trend if he isn’t careful. Now, the good news for Valentin is that he never got knocked out that second time when he fought Torrez Finney.
The bad news is that he has shown absolutely zero promise in the UFC so far, other than the slight positives during his fight with Finney, where he showed some good stand-up capabilities.
Final Betting Analysis: Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin
We think Valentin is going to be backed up to the cage in a relatively short time and be stuck in the same position that Finney had him in before Finney started wrestling.
We believe that Valentin might have shown some decent strikes, but it won’t take long for Guatier’s power to take effect and Valentin to retreat or try to gain space circling around the octagon.
UFC 318: Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov
Why Bet on Adam Fugitt?
Fugitt is a hard fighter to read because, on one hand, he is very well-rounded and can be a dangerous opponent. However, he looked extremely slow when he fought Josh Quinlan, and we can’t imagine Fugitt being that effective against a fast starter like Dulatov.
The problem that Fugitt has, or at least the thing that we notice that Dulatov may expose is that Fugitt is barely defensively sound, he stands in front of his opponent, eating whatever shots he has only to return fire at half the speed he received strikes at, it’s a very sloppy style and we don’t think that Fugitt is going to have a lot of success early on against Dulatov.
Why Bet on Islam Dulatov?
Dulatov is coming into this fight with a gorgeous record behind him of 11-1, and the one thing that jumped out at me was his finish rate; he is predominantly a first-round finisher, and when you watch his fights, it’s clear that he is as high-paced as anyone can get.
We have huge concerns about his cardio because fighting at the pace that he does will drain anyone, and we don’t think it’s a sustainable way to fight, especially if Dulatov chases a finish early on but doesn’t succeed.
Final Betting Analysis: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio
Now, the good news is that Fugitt has one hell of a chin, and he can be quite durable and adapts well to his opponent, but he will be playing catch-up if he survives the first round, as we think Dulatov is going to push the pedal to the metal and fight at a nasty pace.
UFC 318: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio
Why Bet on Jimmy Crute?
Crute, when he’s switched on and highly focused, is an absolute wrecking ball. He is great at throwing out kicks and boxing combinations, feeling the flow very early on feet, but where he does his best work is on the ground.
The one thing to keep an eye on is his Kimura attack. It seems to be his signature submission to chase, and if he doesn’t go for that, he’s more than happy to stay in top control, landing thunderous ground-and-pounds, giving his opponent very little space to move around.
The unfortunate thing about Crute is that when he is transformed into the wrecking ball, he has about 1.5 rounds of cardio before his defense falls out the window, and he is no longer able to protect himself.
Why Bet on Marchin Prachnio?
Prachnio is coming off an arm triangle submission loss against Modestas Bukauskas, and we think the major surprise factor was that Bukauskas was going for a submission, which certainly would have thrown Prachnio off a fair bit!
Now, Prachnio is a technician on the feet;his karate-style stance and movement are a puzzle for all of his opponents to figure out, making it very hazardous to crash in with hopes that your strikes land or your takedown lands.It’s pretty possible that Prachnio could use his lead leg as a defensive barrier, attacking Crute’s legs and then circling away, or side kicking to the body or head as Crute gets close.
Final Betting Analysis: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio
We expect Crute to look to get the fight to the ground as soon as possible to steal the first round and thus secure a less stressful decision win if he can play the tit for tat game against Prachnio.
We are still concerned that Prachnio’s takedown defense isn’t par with Crute’s takedown offense stats, and we think that Prachnio will eventually get taken down, so Crute isn’t walking away from this without looking like he’s gone through a tumble dryer.
UFC 318: Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski
Why Bet on Ryan Spann?
Spann is certainly someone who deserves a layup, especially over someone like Brzeski, who is barely a UFC-level fighter.
Spann has always been one of those “kill or be killed” kind of Heavyweights who has a very fragile chin because he doesn’t even need to be hit heavily for him to feel hurt or stunned by it.
Now, Spann himself is a bit of a heavy hitter, and that might make him a threat, but he doesn’t hit accurately enough to show that power.
However, we expect Spann’s boxing to show itself here against Brzeski.
Why Bet on Łukasz Brzeski?
Brzeski has lost every single one of his UFC fights except for one against Valter Walker, and it was perhaps one of the slower fights of Walker’s during his chaotic UFC career so far.
Brzeski is almost always a fighter that you should not bet on; he is typically an instant fade for us, and that’s because, whilst he is somewhat well-rounded and a decent fighter, the moment his chin gets touched by anything resembling a strong strike, he gets rocked and hurt badly.
Final Betting Analysis: Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski
We suppose there are some similarities between Spann and Brzeski in that regard, but still, we think that Spann is marginally the tougher one to put away.
And as such, the one who will be taking the victory in this clash.
UFC 318: Bruno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey
Why Bet on Bruno Ferreira?
Ferreira is coming off a fantastic arm-bar submission win over Armen Petrosyan. For the most part, Ferreira looked like a bully, throwing his weight with every punch, landing heavy takedowns, and just bullrushing through Armen.
Ferreira has almost always been a first-round finisher, so there’s no real surprise that he hits exceptionally hard and has very little offensive technique to back up his power; he’s just a human wrecking ball.
The great thing about Ferreira regarding this fight is that McVey probably hasn’t even been punched by someone like Ferreira, let alone faced someone who has so much power and can emanate that power through forward aggression and ferocious, singular punches.
Why Bet on Jackson McVey?
McVey is coming off back-to-back weight cuts. He came in originally as a replacement fighter already, so his “qualifications” to be a UFC fighter are already a bit suspicious.
McVey has a longer reach, andwe will likely see him throw some jabs and one-twos down the line. However, all of that could be easily negated by Ferreira’s bomb-throwing punches.
Final Betting Analysis: Bruno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey
We are not completely counting out McVey here. We are giving him a slight chance to win if he keeps this immaculate with no mistakes in distance management, but yeah.
We think this is Ferreira’s fight to win. His power should be enough to get him through.
UFC 318: Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari
Why Bet on Carli Judice?
Judice is coming off a fantastic head-kick knockout against Duben, and we have to say we were intrigued by Judice’s fight against Fernandes, but after that knockout win, we are a little bit biased.
The main thing we genuinely like about Judice is her striking; she is a fantastic fighter and uses her kicks effectively after being set up with some strong boxing combinations at very high speeds.
Why Bet on Nicolle Caliari?
Caliari has the perfect style to counter Judice; she is a grappler and someone who has the incentive in this fight to take the fight to the ground, not only to negate the kicking danger of Judice, but also, due to the height and reach disadvantage, it’s kind of her only way to win this fight.
We don’t know how good Judice’s takedown defense is or her grappling defense, but we suspect that a takedown from Caliari will answer those questions for us.
Final Betting Analysis: Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari
We cannot see Caliari changing up her style or game plan that much this weekend as she faces Judice, so we expect her to try and time a takedown off a kick because if she were to approach without any proper setup or counter, she’s going to get torn up by the quick boxing combinations of Judice.
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