Last Updated on December 4, 2025 1:18 pm by Erwin Noguera
The excitement is building as UFC 323 approaches, set to take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This event marks the final numbered show of the year and features two championship titles on the line, promising an exhilarating conclusion to a fantastic year for the promotion.
In the main event, current Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will attempt his fourth title defense against former champion Petr Yan, who is looking for redemption in their rematch following their bout in March 2023.
The co-main event is equally electrifying, with the Flyweight championship at stake as Alexandre Pantoja defends his title against challenger Joshua Van. Pantoja is aiming for his fifth successful title defense, while Van seeks to make history by taking the belt from a fighter who has remained unbeaten since February 2021.
The main card also features several former champions. Brandon Moreno faces promising contender Tatsuro Taira in a crucial match that could determine who will challenge for the Flyweight title next. Additionally, former double champion Henry Cejudo takes on Payton Talbott in the Bantamweight division.
Kicking off the main card is a matchup between former Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov. The event consists of a total of 14 fights, showcasing a variety of seasoned fighters from the very first preliminary bout.
At Gambyl Exchange, you can check all theย UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Fight Card Odds and Picks – Info
| Merab Dvalishvili -370 | Petr Yan +286 |
| Alexandre Pantoja -270 | Joshua Van +212 |
| Brandon Moreno +102 | Tatsuro Taira -125 |
| Henry Cejudo +212 | Payton Talbott -263 |
| Jan Bลachowicz -130 | Bogdan Guskov +104 |
| Grant Dawson -222 | Manuel Torres +166 |
| Terrence McKinney +142 | Chris Duncan -185 |
| Maycee Barber -185 | Karine Silva +144 |
| Fares Ziam -143 | Nazim Sadykhov +107 |
| Marvin Vettori -123 | Brunno Ferreira -108 |
| Edson Barboza +124 | Jalin Turner -294 |
| Ibo Aslan +152 | Iwo Baraniewski -200 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik -1667 | Antonio Trรณcoli +640 |
| Muhammad Naimov +200 | Mairon Santos -270 |
| When? | Saturday, December 6th, at 10:00 pm ET, 9:00 pm CST, 8:00 pm MT, and 7:00 am PT |
| Where? | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Where Can I Watch it? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?
Merab Dvalishvili is a cardio machine who uses his conditioning as a weapon to exhaust his opponents. While his fighting style may not be the cleanest, he prioritizes staying activeโattacking with takedowns and strikes to keep his opponents defensive. As long as he can maintain this aggressive pace, he is effectively winning the fight.
Fortunately for Merab, he is facing an opponent who can actually challenge him: Petr Yan. Dvalishvili has been hit hard numerous times in his fights and possesses poor striking defense. A key moment to consider is his bout against Marlon Moraes, where Moraes almost ended Merab’s winning streak by nearly finishing him in the first round. While it’s true that Merab showed toughness and skill by escaping that early danger, we maintain a strong belief that his chin is quite fragile, and Yan will definitely test it during this fight.
Why Bet on Petr Yan?
Yan has mentioned throughout the promotion of this fight that he was dealing with a broken hand in his first encounter with Merab, which adds a layer of intrigue to how he will perform this time around. As a striker, Yan has the ideal style to counter Dvalishvili’s approach. He possesses a tight guard, excels at boxing within the pocket, and employs solid mobility and defensive techniques to keep himself safe.
Yan’s takedown defense is also impressive, and we anticipate him successfully negating Merab’s attempts to grapple. Although it may become exhausting, every minute that Yan remains standing allows him the opportunity to land strikes, appear more active, and potentially secure a knockout.
Final Betting Analysis: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
We believe there is a chance for an upset in this matchup. We do not envision Merab remaining champion for the entirety of his career, as someone will eventually defeat him. The only fighter we can see pulling off that victory is someone who has previously fought Dvalishvili for at least three rounds. However, we confidently predict that this fight won’t be the turning point just yet.
UFC 323: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja?
Pantoja has been a dominant champion for a long time, successfully defending his title four times against tough competition, with the exception of his unusual fight against Kai Asakura. We can expect Pantoja to rely on his wrestling and grappling skills, which have been key to his success in the cage.
While Pantoja is competent on his feet, he is not a world-class striker. However, he possesses enough danger to keep his opponents guessing and on the defensive. That said, Joshua Van is likely the quicker striker and will probably throw more volume during exchanges. For every strike that Pantoja throws, Van is likely to respond with two or three more, making him appear busier in the fight. Even during Van’s combinations or counterattacks, Pantoja will likely look for an opportunity to change levels and secure a dominant position.
Why Bet on Joshua Van?
Van has performed impressively against generally mediocre competition, with the exception of his fight against Brandon Royval, where he showed he can compete with top contenders. Although Van is a slow starter, we are curious to see how he performs in five-round bouts. If he maintains a decent pace in the second and third rounds, as he has historically shown, he could ramp up the pressure effectively with extra time to prepare for those final rounds.
On paper, Van’s takedown defense is strong. However, we would be surprised if Pantoja doesn’t land at least three takedowns early in the fight, although their effectiveness may diminish as the rounds progress. The main concern for Van is his takedown defense; if Pantoja can impose his grappling game early, Van could find himself stuck beneath a relentless opponent.
Final Betting Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
If Pantoja struggles to secure takedowns, he tends to look poor on the feet and often emerges with visible damage, showing signs of wear from the numerous battles he has faced. Age may also be becoming a factor, given his extensive fight history. We might see a bloodied Pantoja, but his grit and fighting spirit mean he is always capable of turning the fight around at any moment.
UFC 323: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Why Bet on Brandon Moreno?
Moreno is coming off back-to-back wins against Amir Albazi and Dan Erceg, both of whom are challenging opponents. Now, he faces another prospect in Tatsuro Taira, who has a different style. It will be interesting to see how well Moreno is prepared for Taira’s elite-level grappling.
As a former champion, Moreno has faced the top fighters in the division throughout his UFC career, consistently performing well against tough competition. We anticipate that he won’t falter in this matchup.
Moreno’s experience and skill set should help him avoid immediate danger from Taira’s submissions, which is Taira’s specialty. Standing on the feet, we expect Moreno’s strikes to be more effective; he hits hard and fights from a lower stance. This technique should help him counter Taira’s level-changing takedown attempts more effectively than other opponents who use traditional boxing or kickboxing stances.
Why Bet on Tatsuro Taira?
Tatsuro Taira is an incredibly promising fighter who has caught our attention in recent bouts due to his impressive performances, even at a young age. His grappling ability is exceptional; he has a remarkable talent for manipulating his opponents’ weight to off-balance them, making him formidable on the ground.
However, there are concerns regarding his striking defense. While he raises his guard, he lacks the head movement and overall boxing defense necessary to protect himself against a skilled striker like Moreno. Taira tends to use his striking mainly to set up takedowns, which may not be enough since Moreno is used to that fighting style.
Final Betting Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Given that the former champion is well-prepared for anything Taira might bring to the table, it appears that Taira’s most viable path to victory lies in grapplingโspecifically, wrestling, controlling, and attempting to submit Moreno. However, not only is Moreno ready for these tactics, but he could also employ similar strategies against Taira after showcasing his striking. Overall, it is difficult to see a clear path to victory for Taira in this fight.
UFC 323: Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Why Bet on Henry Cejudo?
Cejudo is currently in a unique phase of his career; he is likely no longer fighting for a championship but rather for financial gain or to finish out his contract. While we can’t predict his performance this weekend, we know that his wrestling skills will play a significant role. Cejudo has a lifetime of wrestling experience, which could help him secure a victory in this fight.
However, Talbott exposed some weaknesses in Cejudo’s stand-up game. Cejudo faces a considerable height and reach disadvantage, making this matchup challenging for him.
Why Bet on Payton Talbott?
Talbott is coming off a win against Lima, a formidable opponent that many expected to defeat him. Contrary to those expectations, Talbott showcased his striking abilities effectively. His striking style is clean and efficient; he doesn’t waste punches and waits for his opponents to overextend before delivering precise counter-strikes. If Cejudo tries to close the distance for takedowns, he may get hit repeatedly in the process.
Final Betting Analysis: Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Talbott is likely to shine in the striking department. However, the uncertainty lies in Cejudo’s potential to take the fight to the ground. This is where things become complicated. While Talbott was able to fend off most of Lima’s takedowns, he still experienced some success against him.
There are valid concerns regarding Talbott’s takedown defense and ability to get back on his feet. Despite this, we believe Talbott still has what it takes to come out on top in this matchup.
UFC 323: Jan Bลachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
Why Bet on Jan Bลachowicz?
Blachowicz is coming off back-to-back losses against Ulberg and Pereira. While those fights were spaced apart, his age raises concerns about how much he may have regressed since facing Ulberg. Although he performed reasonably well in that match, he appeared slower and less nimble than in his prime.
The legendary “Polish Power” is still evident, and it could surface in this fight. However, we believe Bลachowicz will lean on his wrestling skills to play it safe, as engaging in a stand-up battle poses a risk against an opponent who could challenge his tough chin. Early in the fight, Bลachowicz is quick and reactive, but age seems to be affecting him more these days.
Why Bet on Bogdan Guskov?
Guskov might be slightly overrated at this point. He has some impressive victories and highlight-reel moments, but those knockouts have often come against opponents with questionable durability.
In this fight, Guskov is expected to adopt a more aggressive style. Being younger and riding a wave of momentum compared to Bลachowicz, he is likely to press forward and test Bลachowicz’s chin. However, we do have some concerns regarding Guskov’s leg kick defense; he tends to leave his lead leg exposed, which is something Bลachowicz typically exploits in his fights.
Additionally, Guskov often keeps his hands low or wide, leaving his chin vulnerable. While this may allow him to obscure his strikes, it also presents an opportunity for Bลachowicz to capitalize.
Final Betting Analysis: Jan Bลachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
We expect Bลachowicz to start the fight by attacking Guskov’s legs early, using steady forward pressure and a solid stance to back Guskov up. However, we don’t anticipate seeing much boxing from Bลachowicz in this matchup.
While Guskov possesses one-punch knockout power that could potentially finish Bลachowicz, if he fails to achieve that, he must be prepared to defend against takedowns. Bลachowicz is known for his effective grappling, and we believe this could play a crucial role in securing a victory for the former champion.
UFC 323: Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Why Bet on Grant Dawson?
Grant Dawson is a fighter who has yet to establish himself as a top contender, despite possessing the skills, talent, and experience necessary to challenge for a title. Unfortunately, the opportunities just haven’t materialized. In this fight, it’s evident that Dawson needs to rely on his wrestling. Staying on his feet against Torres could lead to serious consequences, as Torres has the striking power to end the fight if given the chance. We expect to see a classic Grappler vs. Striker matchup, with Dawson doing everything he can to engage on the feet before taking the fight to the ground.
Why Bet on Manuel Torres?
Manuel Torres is a dangerous opponent from the very start. As soon as the fight begins, he aggressively pressures his opponents and gives them little room to operate. His knockout power is well-known, and there may be moments when Dawson respects this power a bit too much, allowing Torres to feel more confident and deliver heavy strikes at a high volume.
However, we are uncertain about Torres’ takedown defense. If the fight goes to the ground, he must find a way to delay Dawson’s grappling dominance and make it difficult for him to operate. This may involve using techniques like elbows from his back to either make Dawson back off or create opportunities to reverse the position. The longer this fight remains standing, the more beneficial it will be for Torres.
Final Betting Analysis: Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Torres is known for being a first-round finishing machine, having finished all his opponents in the first round. Dawson must survive the initial onslaught to have success in the second and third rounds. Dawson is experienced with heavy hitters, but he does have one loss on his record against King Green, who landed a decisive left straight that ended the fight. This remains a significant threat for Dawson, as he lacks elite striking defense against powerful punchers.
To succeed, Dawson needs to remain defensively aware in the first round, endure Torres’ barrage of strikes as he seeks the knockout, and then capitalize on his forward pressure to grapple with and take Torres down later in the fight.
UFC 323: Terrence McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Why Bet on Terrence McKinney?
McKinney is coming off back-to-back first-round victories against Hadzovic and Borshchev. However, the competition has not been the toughest, as Hadzovic is older, and Borshchev is quite one-dimensional.
McKinney is known as a first-round fighter; he can finish strong, but after the first round, he tends to fatigue quickly. This is concerning in the UFC, where endurance is crucial. We expect to see an intense level of violence and output from McKinney in the first round. However, his striking defense is poor, and a more skilled striker could expose his weaknesses and shut him down effectively.
Why Bet on Chris Duncan?
We were skeptical about Duncan’s last fight against Rebecki, and that match turned into an intense battle. Given his performance in that fight, we believe Duncan will overcome McKinney with ease.
Duncan has clean striking, and when the fight gets heated, he thrives. He stands his ground and throws powerful punches, and we expect him to showcase this aggression from the beginning.
Final Betting Analysis: Terrence McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Duncan’s style is not highly technical; he is a very offensively oriented striker, and sometimes that approach works against someone like McKinney. McKinney’s chances of winning largely depend on whether his opponent allows him to do so. The key concern for Duncan will be McKinney’s wrestling, as that is McKinney’s foundation. Duncan needs to be defensively aware of his takedown defense and ensure that he doesn’t allow McKinney to take control of the fight.
UFC 323: Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
Why Bet on Maycee Barber?
Maycee Barber is a talented fighter who has faced significant health issues that have led to several last-minute fight cancellations. Although we’re not medical professionals, it seems that her weight cuts may trigger some of her symptoms, which could explain her inability to compete against Blanchfield earlier this year.
If Barber does fight this weekend, we could see a performance similar to her previous bouts, where she uses her tight boxing skills and elbows to damage Silva while maintaining control by grinding her against the cage. Barber tends to have a weight advantage, often entering the octagon with about 10 extra pounds compared to her opponents. When she accelerates her pace, she can fight with intensity, which is likely to help her win rounds on the scorecards. However, we are uncertain how she will perform this time, given her health issues.
Why Bet on Karine Silva?
Silva is known for effectively using her power punches. She often walks down her opponents, throwing straightforward boxing combinations with significant force. However, Viviane Araujo demonstrated how to defeat her by targeting her legs and maintaining constant movement.
If Silva takes the initiative and pressures Barber, she has a good chance of winning. Yet, there is always uncertainty regarding Barber’s health and whether she is in a condition to compete effectively.
Final Betting Analysis: Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
One potential strategy for Barber in this fight could be to wrestle. Since Silva is primarily a striker and stands tall, Barber might try to push her against the cage and use that position to attempt a double or single leg takedown.
Overall, we have doubts about Barber’s current situation, which makes Silva a more reliable pick for this matchup.
UFC 323: Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Why Bet on Fares Ziam?
Ziam has been on an impressive streak recently, consistently demonstrating outstanding performance in his fights. His height and reach at Lightweight are significant advantages that he effectively utilizes, whether at jab/kick range or in the clinch. He skillfully employs every available weapon to inflict damage on his opponents.
While Ziam may face a tough challenge with Sadykhov, who tends to pressure his opponents and engage in striking exchanges, Ziam’s height and reach have been crucial to his success so far. We believe he can effectively deal damage while managing to keep his distance.
Why Bet on Nazim Sadykhov?
Nazim Sadykhov comes off a solid victory against Nikolas Motta, where he faced a tough start but rebounded strongly in the second and third rounds, ultimately winning by KO in the final round.
Sadykhov is a competent fighter, but there are concerns regarding his striking style. Although he has secured wins against powerful strikers, his striking seems stiff and somewhat mechanical. It lacks the natural flow of a seasoned striker, appearing as if he is merely going through pre-planned motions.
Nazim effectively utilizes a defensive shell, covering up to protect himself and then countering.However, if Ziam manages to maintain a safe distance and pick away at Sadykhov with his reach, he has a good chance to emerge victorious.
That said, Sadykhov possesses impressive cardio, showcasing strong combinations in the challenging third round against Motta. We anticipate an outstanding fight between these two.
Final Betting Analysis: Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov
We expect Ziam to fight mostly from the back foot, making it difficult for Sadykhov to track him down. Ziam will likely focus on throwing jabs and circling around the cage. Although this strategy might not visually impress judges and could lead them to favor Sadykhov due to octagon control and aggression, we believe Ziam will inflict enough damage while staying mobile to win the fight.
Ziam’s takedown defense could pose challenges for Sadykhov. However, it would be too risky for Ziam to engage in the wrestling area. He needs to stay agile, provoke Sadykhov into attacking, and use his reach to keep him at bay.
UFC 323: Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Why Bet on Marvin Vettori?
Marvin Vettori used to be an exciting fighter, but recently, his performance has declined significantly. At 32 years old, it seems his momentum as a contender has plummeted. While Vettori has a strong jaw and the durability to handle Ferreira’s strikes, there’s a possibility that Ferreira could land some heavy hits that may sway the judges in his favor.
Why Bet on Brunno Ferreira?
Brunno Ferreira has consistently delivered action-packed fights. However, it remains to be seen if he can compete effectively against a fighter like Vettori. Ferreira is known for his willingness to engage and throw punches. Having faced numerous top-ranked middleweights, he is still in his career’s prime, although he may show some signs of decline.
Final Betting Analysis: Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Vettori has extensive experience against dangerous strikers, but he often falls into a pattern of boxing while remaining vulnerable to counterattacks. His defensive skills are lacking, and he occasionally demonstrates low fight IQ. It seems that Vettori may try various strategies to win this fight, but he lacks a clear game plan.
On the other hand, Ferreira has the potential to land more significant strikes and appear more aggressive. If he wins the first round, he likely will carry that momentum into the second round. However, a key question remains: how much will Ferreira’s power diminish if he is unable to finish Vettori within the first round and a half?
UFC 323: Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
Why Bet on Edson Barboza?
Edson Barboza is coming off two consecutive losses, but they come with a story. He faced Lerone Murphy in a five-round battle before his fight against Drakkar Klose. While Barboza showed some resilience, there are concerning signs of regression in his career. He remains a sharp striker, but when opponents apply pressure, he seems to struggle. We expect to see Barboza’s legendary leg kicks, which are crucial against a taller fighter like Turner.
Barboza’s striking defense has declined; he’s getting clipped more often, and his ability to raise his guard in time to defend against strikes isn’t as quick as it used to be. Thus, there are legitimate concerns about his defensive capabilities.
Why Bet on Jalin Turner?
Turner is returning from a brief retirement, announced earlier this year. He has reportedly been seeing a sports psychologist, suggesting that recent losses may have affected him. As a southpaw, Jalin Turner is a well-rounded fighter who has displayed sharp striking. In his fight against King Green, he landed some impressive one-two combinations that hit cleanly. Being tall gives him an advantage, allowing him to throw straight punches from a comfortable position without needing to overextend, which minimizes the risk of counters.
Final Betting Analysis: Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
One interesting development for Barboza is his recent tendency to target the body. Given Turner’s significant height advantage, he may be more effective in delivering body shots, especially considering his long torso. However, once Barboza’s cardio issues start to manifest, we expect Turner to ramp up the pressure and likely take control of the fight to secure the win.
UFC 323: Ibo Aslan vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Why Bet on Ibo Aslan?
Ibo Aslan has had a lackluster performance in his recent bouts, notably his fight against Elekana, which was quite unexciting. It’s hard to assess Aslan’s strengths from that fight. However, disregarding that match, Aslan is a first-round finisher and showcases significant power when he chooses to unleash it. If he doesn’t strike, he tends to lack effectiveness and appears more like a wall of muscle still figuring things out. Aslan is undoubtedly most dangerous in the first round; after that, his performance becomes somewhat unpredictable.
Why Bet on Iwo Baraniewski?
Iwo Baraniewski recently had an impressive finish on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), where he landed a stunning overhand right that knocked out his opponent within seconds. While this sounds great, it’s frustrating for analysts who want to see more from him. In previous promotions, Baraniewski has consistently used his powerful punches to achieve knockdowns or knockouts. However, we are unsure about his striking defense, as he has never gone beyond the first round. When two powerful punchers like these face off, there’s often a stalemate, with fighters showing too much respect for one another, which raises some concerns.
Final Betting Analysis: Ibo Aslan vs. Iwo Baraniewski
We believe Baraniewski has a good chance to win this fight. However, if it turns into a boring back-and-forth, similar to Aslan’s fight with Elekana, the outcome could go either way. We are curious to see the odds for the fight reaching the third round. Nevertheless, our pick is in favor of Iwo Baraniewski for this matchup.
UFC 323: Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli
Why Bet on Mansur Abdul-Malik?
Abdul-Malik has a distinct advantage when it comes to striking. While Trocoli can deliver powerful strikes, his technique and timing are not as refined as Abdul-Malik’s. In combat sports, power can be an equalizer, but a boxer with a well-rounded skill set is generally more effective than a grappler who only has boxing skills. As long as this fight remains standing, Abdul-Malik can apply pressure and showcase his abilities.
Why Bet on Antonio Trocoli?
Antonio Trocoli will likely try to clinch and take the fight to the ground, but Abdul-Malik has impressive takedown defense, with a nearly perfect rate in that area. We might see this takedown defense play a crucial role in the fight. Itโs evident that Trocoli typically enters fights with a strategy focused on getting the fight to the ground, but when that fails, he struggles in striking exchanges.
Final Betting Analysis: Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli
It appears the UFC is setting up Trocoli to face a rising prospect like Abdul-Malik. Given the unfavorable odds for Trocoli, it seems likely that the UFC’sintention is to promote one fighter while potentially sidelining the other.
UFC 323: Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos
Why Bet on Muhammad Naimov?
Naimov comes into this fight with back-to-back victories against TUF Finale loser Kaan Ofli and a decent opponent in Bogdan Grad. In these two bouts, we witnessed a consistent game plan from Naimov, which revolved around attempting to take the fight to the ground.
Naimov tends to play the role of a bully inside the cage, utilizing his takedown offense and proficiency in clinch fighting to overwhelm his opponents with wrestling output and takedown attempts. For the most part, he has succeeded in bringing the fight to the ground. However, he does struggle on the feet and often gets outstruck, which raises concerns since his opponent this weekend, Mairon Santos, is capable of delivering powerful exchanges and combinations.
Why Bet on Mairon Santos?
Santos has been on our radar since he decisively defeated Kaan Ofli, landing significant strikes that damaged Ofli’s chin. While we believe Santos holds a fair chance against Naimov in this matchup, we are cautious about fully betting on him due to his consistently tested takedown defense, which we expect Naimov to exploit.
Santos will likely target Naimov’s legs early in the fight to diminish the forward movement threat and reduce the impact of Naimov’s strikes. Regardless of the exchanges on the feet, Santos will face a challenging task in defending against Naimov’s dual threatโstriking and takedowns.
Final Betting Analysis: Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos
Santos is a considerable threat on the feet, but his ability to quickly return to his feet after being taken down should not be overlooked. Marshall performed well by bringing Santos to the ground, but he struggled to keep him down for an extended period.
We anticipate Naimov will be aggressive, pushing forward in an effort to secure takedowns. However, we also expect Santos to inflict significant damage with his exceptional Muay Thai skills.
In this matchup, we are picking Santos. While he may spend some time on the defensive, we believe he can secure a victory, especially if he can outstrike Naimov and if the judges prioritize scoring damage over control.
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