UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Fight Card Odds and Picks

The UFC returns to its comfort zone as it takes this Saturday’s Fight Night back to Las Vegas, Nevada, and into the UFC Apex. However, they are getting a former Welterweight title contender and one of the top fighters in the division against an undefeated prospect in what could be a title eliminator fight.

The Main Event places Gilbert Burns, who always puts it out on the line on the Octagon, against the 17-0 Michael Morales on the Main event of this card, and it will be an exciting bout between them as they both try to keep themselves on the top of the division.

The Co-Main is also going to be quite interesting as Paul Craig goes up from Middleweight to Light Heavyweight to face Rodolfo Bellato, and it could end up being a fun clash, even though Bellato’s record suggests that this might be a tough fight for Craig.

For this fight card, we have seven prelims and five main cards with lesser-known names, so this card will be a pretty good one to get a hold of the up-and-comers in the division as they try to get their names out there and rise to the top.

You can check all the UFC/MMA Odds, and the final bet you can make in these fights.

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Fight Card Odds and Info

UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Why Bet on Gilbert Burns?

Burns is reaching the end of his peak athletic prime or career. He hasn’t slowed down too much and has good cardio, but it’s clear that he is outmatched in his recent fights. While he may hold a major grappling advantage against Morales, getting the fight to the mat may be somewhat troublesome.

Burns throws hands; he can land some big shots and brawls with nasty intent, but his skill set doesn’t match that of better strikers. In this case, Morales is a much better striker; he’s cleaner at range, and that’s likely to be a central story unfolding during this fight as we expect Morales to comfortably land his strikes at range whilst Burns tries to cover that distance and get into a takedown position.

Why Bet on Michael Morales?

Morales has flown through this division. It reminds us of Dricus Du Plessis’ rise when he rampaged through the division and is now taking on five-rounders. Morales has a bit of a systematic approach to fighting; he doesn’t throw out volume in large amounts, everything is fairly methodical and at times slow, but he builds up momentum as the rounds go by, being both careful and explosive at the right times, catching his opponents off guard with that style.

However, once he makes his reads after that first round, he becomes an entirely different fighter. He lets his hands go more often, with exceptionally high accuracy, chases down finishes, crowds his opponent with an overwhelming amount of activity, and all of these things are somewhat bad news for Burns, who has become a bit more hittable in recent fights.

Final Betting Analysis: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Morales is still young in this game; he is 13 years younger than Burns, but he is riding more momentum, and in the UFC, momentum is key to success. One thing to note here is that we have not seen Morales fight in a five-rounder before, so his late-round cardio could be enjoyable to witness.

It comes down to whether or not Burns can get that takedown on Morales, whose takedown defense holds up exceptionally well.

Since wrestling and grappling are Burns’ more direct routes to victory, we believe Morales will be ready for that.

UFC Fight Night: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Why Bet on Paul Craig?

Craig is incredibly one-dimensional and has one principal weakness when he is on the receiving end—His chin. He may be aggressive on the feet, but ultimately, when it comes down to any striking scenario, his chin gets wobbled quite a bit, and that’s a huge concern considering that Bellato is known for his power.

Anyway, the one thing we do like about Craig is his toughness, even if he gets rocked or dropped, the moment his opponent falls into his guard, he’s like a bigger version of Gerald Meerschaert, grappling and doing some BJJ wizardry, which leads to a submission win.

Craig’s grappling will always be dangerous, and his submission skill set could carry him in this fight.

Why Bet on Rodolfo Bellato?

Bellato is only two fights into his UFC Career, and we cannot pinpoint anything that makes him appear special or unique. He has Light Heavyweight hands power; he can grapple and wrestle, and he has more variance in his strikes than just punches, he is all round a dangerous opponent to deal with, and has a massive chance to end this fight his own way.

Craig’s only chance to win is to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. However, we are unsure if he can do that against a much bigger fighter like Bellato because his defense is not one-dimensional, and he’s quick to drop his base and meet the takedown head-on.

Final Betting Analysis: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

We’re likely to see a Bellato win here due to his power. It has been a problem for Craig in the past; his chin would get smashed, and he would drop to the ground. While he recovers fast and grapples effectively, we don’t know if we’ll see him be that effective against Bellato.

Even though we are picking Rodolfo Bellato as our favorite, we can’t count out Paul Craig.

UFC Fight Night: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Why Bet on Sodiq Yusuff?

Yusuff is still one dangerous Featherweight fighter to face; the only thing that concerns us about Yusuff in this fight is his chin. He struggled against Diego Lopes in his last fight and got beaten badly. Now, he’s paired up against a fantastic kickboxer like Santos.

The good news about Yusuff is that he’s experienced some challenging fights and has grown. He knows how to approach a dangerous opponent with Santos’ skill set and knockout threat, but still, for Yusuff to win this fight, he needs to engage on the feet, and that seems like the risk outweighs the reward here.

Why Bet on Mairon Santos?

Santos is only two fights deep into his UFC career, and he has looked good. On the feet, he is sharp with his kickboxing, patient, times his attacks well, and has a ton of power, and it’s that power that we believe will be a major contributor to his success.

It wouldn’t take much for him to land on Yusuff’s chin and test to see how much he has recovered from his loss against Lopes. We believe that due to the “newness” of Santos, Yusuff wouldn’t have that much tape to study on Santos and thus might not be able to formulate a game plan to counter, but from what we can tell, Santos is a very burst-based fighter. He attacks in short bursts of powerful combinations, then resets for another attack, so it all comes down to timing. However, if Yusuff can’t get that read, itmakes us wonder if this will be a completely off-the-charts performance for Santos.

Final Betting Analysis: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Both fighters’ kick-focused styles could lead to both clashing shins until one says “okay, no more” and starts to throw hammers.

There is a possibility that this fight could merge into a wrestling match, and Yussuf could find that takedown against Santos. However, we believe that this is going to be a stand-up bout.

For as long as this fight remains standing, Santos has the slight edge on the feet, as this is no doubt his most difficult challenge to date, but we are sure that his power can rattle Yusuff’s chin.

UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Why Bet on Nursulton Ruziboev?

Ruziboev is coming off a pretty great KO win over Eric McConico, and it was practically one-way traffic. One major thing Ruziboev has over Stoltzfus is the knockout threat.

If this fight remains standing, Ruziboev has the clear advantage. He seems to be the more dangerous striker at range and in the clinch, although we wouldn’t be surprised if Stoltzfus gives Ruziboev some problems in the pocket.

Why Bet on Dustin Stoltzfus?

Stoltzfus has always been a gritty fighter who doesn’t freeze up in the toughest of fights, but he still often has been outmatched by better fighters.

Stoltzfus doesn’t have the best chin nor a striking defense. He’s at a size disadvantage and is practically at the end of his career. Even though he is already quite young, he doesn’t seem to have the energy in his career to advance through the division.

Dustin Stoltzfus is clearly going to have to fight uncharacteristically and wildly to win. Otherwise, Ruziboev will snipe at range and use his lengthy kicks to his advantage.

Final Betting Analysis: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

The gap in wrestling between the two fighters is likely the deciding factor here. Ruziboev has better offensive grappling and enough technical polish to handle Stoltzfus’s pressure. Unless Stoltzfus pulls off something unexpected in a wild flurry, we don’t see a clear path to victory for him.

Ruziboes should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and control the pace, making him the safer pick to come out on top.

UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Why Bet on Julian Erosa?

As good as Erosa looked in the fight against Elkins, Costa is young, hungry, and just as dangerous on the ground as he is on the feet.

Erosa might struggle here, as we don’t think his grappling will be too competitive against someone like Costa. However, in terms of his wrestling and takedown offense, we believe it may be the best way to deal with Costa, even if the submission threat is coming, at least he wouldn’t have to worry about the severe power differential on the feet.

Why Bet on Melquizael Costa?

Costa has been on an absolute tear recently with a solid win against a highly difficult C-Rod. Even though he may not be the most technical fighter in the division, he can crack and wrestle. He is so diverse with his style that it would be difficult to prepare for and fight against such a powerhouse.

Costa is at a meaningful size disadvantage, so we think his best road to victory is to march forward and be aggressive. He needs to be aware of the knees up the middle and throw leather from the get-go, never letting Erosa settle the fight down at his own pace.

Final Betting Analysis: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

We think this will be an uphill battle for Erosa. From what we have seen from Costa, we believe we’ll see Costa push a ridiculous pace and be a bully in the cage this weekend, taking the victory.

UFC Fight Night: Matheus Camilo vs. Gabe Green

Why Bet on Matheus Camilo?

Camilo is coming into this fight undefeated with immense momentum, winning various promotions.

He doesn’t have a lot of speed behind his punches, but it’s all raw power that can shut off the lights in his opponents.

His volume isn’t too impressive, but when he let his hands go after a timid first few minutes, he’s incredibly accurate, with his right hook being a signature strike for him.

Why Bet on Gabe Green?

Gabe Grees is coming off back-to-back KO losses against Ian Garry and Bryan Battle, both heavy-hitting strikers. He’s moving down in weight and returning after nearly two years of being inactive.

In terms of his in-cage performances, he isn’t a world beater; he has decent striking and great wrestling, but none of that will matter since Camilo is a diverse fighter too.

Final Betting Analysis: Matheus Camilo vs. Gabe Green

We will likely keep an eye on Green’s weight in footage to see if he looks drained, because if he does, he will get walloped by Camilo.

We think that a healthy Green can perhaps give Camilo a fair bit of trouble on the feet if he fights like an absolute dog and lets his volume go. We believe this is one of those cases where the UFC is trying to match up a younger fighter against someone previously outmatched.

UFC Fight Night: Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moisés

Why Bet on Jared Gordon?

Gordon has had quite a lot of success in the UFC despite the losses on his record. We might argue that some losses should be wins, such as his loss against Paddy and his loss against Haqparast, two dangerous opponents with Haqparast being the much larger striking threat.

The one noticeable thing is that Gordon has upped his boxing game. He times his strikes a lot better, changes the combinations, and for as long as this fight remains standing, we hold a firm belief that Gordon can outbox Moises.

On the other hand, if leg kicks become too problematic for Gordon, we could see Gordon wrestle to nullify those leg kicks, and that’s not a great thought because Moises will probably give Gordon all kinds of trouble on the ground.

Why Bet on Thiago Moisés?

Moises has always been the UFC’s go-to fighter for setting up fun fights, and this time it’s no different. Gordon won’t be accepting takedowns that easily. He’s got fantastic takedown defense, and we believe the only way Moises can force the fight to the ground is sheer pressure and takedown attempts.

Either way, Moises does have a few more ways to win this fight than Gordon does, but his ways to win have major gaps that we don’t see coming to fruition.

Moises has to up his leg kicks game in the fight, but we think Gordon’s boxing will be a decent counter for that. The boxing volume may make it difficult for Moises to let his kicks go.

Final Betting Analysis: Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moisés

The most obvious concern for Gordon is those leg kicks. The best way to shut down a boxer is to attack the legs, and that’s likely what Moises will do somewhat comfortably early on in the fight.

We suspect Moises will find early success, but it depends on Gordon’s ability to eat them and keep moving forward; he may continue to keep the leg kicks up or get countered effectively.

Ultimately, if Gordon has shored up his leg kick defense, he should pull away with a victory outstriking Moises, but honestly, it’s hard to tell until we see how he will react to those leg kicks.

UFC Fight Night: Connor Matthews vs. Yadier DelValle

Why Bet on Connor Matthews?

Matthews is indeed coming off back-to-back KO losses. Now, he’s facing someone with heavy hands and isn’t afraid to stand back and let his opponent take shots at him.

Matthews will have to contend with DelValle’s first-round danger. He must take the fight to the mat or be on the back foot to mitigate the damage coming. With Delvalle’s cardio only lasting one or two rounds, he needs to wait and capitalize on an adrenaline dump to stand up before Delvalle.

Why Bet on Yadier DelValle?

Delvalle is such a fantastic fighter. His win against Monteiro was an incredible high-paced fight, and whilst his boxing was a bit sloppy, he looked powerful and threw at high volume.

If he can use that same tenacity in this fight, with perhaps a slower pace to last three rounds, he could get a win here.

We don’t believe someone like Matthews could resist the damage Delvalle put on Monteiro.

Final Betting Analysis: Connor Matthews vs. Yadier DelValle

Given that damage is a primary scoring factor, we do think that Matthews will be fighting an uphill battle to close that gap on the feet. He will get torn to shreds in that first round, and if he survives, hewill have to risk to regain some respect from Delvalle.

We think DelValle will be too much for Matthews here.

UFC Fight Night: Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa

Why Bet on Luana Santos?

Santos is coming off a fairly tough loss against part-time fighter Casey O’Neill; she tried to use her skillset to her advantage, but it didn’t work well against O’Neill.

Anyway, before that loss, Santos looked absolutely dominant on the ground. It’s clear she’s a submission specialist. When you pair that kind of advantage over someone like Lisboa, who has a chance on the feet, we will see a classic case of the grappler having a low-resistance time against a highly dangerous Muay Thai fighter.

Why Bet on Tainara Lisboa?

Lisboa is on a mean streak, but she’s coming off knee surgery and a long break. Before all that, her striking was mean, brutal in the clinch, and would deal tangible damage.

Lisboa has submission wins on her record and has shown the capability of landing takedowns. However, we think that perhaps the takedown offense could be muted a little bit due to the surgery. She’ll probably be a bit anxious doing significant attacks, including takedowns, opening a road for Santos to attack the knee as a submission.

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa Final Betting Analysis:

We expect Santos to come out grappling or with a wrestling-heavy gameplan; she would want to take this fight to the ground and test the grappling of Lisboa, and most importantly, shut down her Muay Thai advantage.

We do not think Lisboa’s takedown defense will stop Santos’ output and her tricky trips.

UFC Fight Night: Denise Gomes vs. Elise Reed

Why Bet on Denise Gomes?

Gomes fights with raw physicality. She’s built around brute strength, heavy hand, and a forward-charging style. While his technique may be lacking, her power is undeniable. She can be overwhelming for more technically oriented fighters.

However, her takedown defense is a known weakness. If Reed is to find anything in this matchup, it will have to come on the ground. Still, Gomes’ game plan is straightforward: throw bomb after bomb. If she connects clean, she has a chance of ending the fight early.

Why Bet on Elise Reed?

Reed appears to have reached her ceiling, and hasn’t been particularly high. Her performances have shown limitations, and we are not confident she can boost her level enough to beat someone as physical and aggressive as Gomes.

That said, there is a narrow path to victory for Reed if she can time her entries and capitalize on Gomes’ wild striking tendencies.

Final Betting Analysis: Denise Gomes vs. Elise Reed

Gomes’ Takedown defense leaves a lot to the imagination, and we think that if Reed times her takedowns well enough, she can end up on her back for a long time.

However, we believe Gomes’s hands will be enough to turn the lights out for Reed in this clash.

UFC Fight Night: Hyun Sung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez

Why Bet on Hyun Sung Park?

Park is a dangerous striker in that he is calculated but can also turn it up quickly and momentarily, always keeping his opponent guessing when he will strike.

Expect Park to come out with some heavy low kicks early. He loves to start off with those. However, the moment he switches to inside leg kicks, we think we’ll get a few cup checks here.

After a few leg kicks, expect him to start to chase down some boxing combinations, a lot of quick and short hook combinations that carry high power and can completely rattle the brain of his opponent. He’s fantastic in that regard.

Why Bet on Carlos Hernandez?

Hernandez is someone who we can see falling substantially behind on the feet, since it’s much easier to score on the feet than on the ground.We think that if Hernandez keeps the fight standing and dares to trade against Park, he will get torn to shreds.

His only chance to win this fight is to get the fight to the ground early, drape himself over Park and exhaust that gas tank, test his cardio in the later rounds, and employ a slow but wrestle-heavy approach.

If he drops the first round due to a lack of striking output or a lack of counters that make the fight look fair or equal, he will have to play catch up and gamble with trying to take Park down and thus test his takedown defense.

Final Betting Analysis: Hyun Sung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez

Hernandez has displayed the ability and cardio to go for dozens of takedowns each fight. He could very well use that kind of pace to overwhelm and eventually get the fight to the ground against an obviously striking heavy opponent and newcomer in Park.

However, due to the approach from Hyun Sung in his striking exchanges, we have a somewhat high confidence that Park will win, especially with a KO in the early rounds (one or two).

UFC Fight Night: Luana Pinheiro vs. Tecia Pennington

Why Bet on Luana Pinheiro?

Pinheiro is on a tough losing streak. However, she has fought tough competition in Robertson, Ribas, and Hill. She has some difficulties dealing with certain fighters, and those fighters are generally more well-rounded.

Pinheiro is good grappler. She is solid on the ground and often goes for submissions. Her judo throws are fantastic and are on the menu to be attempted numerous times against Pennington here this weekend.

However, in the current age of MMA, being exceptional in one field but falling dramatically behind in other fields is not ideal at all, and Pinheiro has failed to get on par.

We cannot see outside of a few successful trips or hip throws from Pinheiro thatshe can win this fight.

Why Bet on Tecia Pennington?

Pennington is always a fun fighter to watch; she’s got some incredible hands, and she fights at a stupendous pace. We suspect that an overwhelming amount of volume and a fairly aggressive gameplan are key to dealing with a grapple-heavy approach.

She may not have the prettiest record in the UFC, but her experience against tough competition in the last few eras is pretty great.

Her experience in the cage will be important in preparing for someone like Pinheiro. Her approach to fighting is fairly straightforward, and we suspect that Pennington will know what to do and learn quickly about what kind of setup Pinheiro will attempt.

Final Betting Analysis: Luana Pinheiro vs. Tecia Pennington

Pinheiro’s striking is a bit sloppy and leagues below Pennington’s own frenetic striking ability, so we think the best thing that Pinheiro can do here is overwhelm with clinch attacks and look to use those hip tosses from the clinch. However, Pennington should be very aware of that and is ready for that scenario.

With that being the case, we can only expect an easy match for Pennington to win.

Burns vs. Morales Betting Pick: Michael Morales

Craig vs. Bellato Betting Pick: Rodolfo Bellato

Yusuff vs. Santos Betting Pick: Mairon Santos

Ruziboev vs. Stoltzfus Betting Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev

Erosa vs. Costa Betting Pick: Melquizael Costa

Camilo vs. Green Betting Pick: Matheus Camilo

Gordon vs. Moisés Betting Pick: Jared Gordon

Matthews vs. DelValle Betting Pick: Yadier DelValle

Santos vs. Lisboa Betting Pick: Luana Santos

Gomes vs. Reed Betting Pick: Denise Gomes

Park vs. Hernandez Betting Pick: Hyun Sung Park

Pinheiro vs. Pennington Betting Pick: Tecia Pennington