Last Updated on July 10, 2025 4:20 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC hit the road as we head to Nashville for the upcoming Fight Night event, and we’re going to enjoy it, as we have a barnburner for a Heavyweight event for once.
The main fight of the night sees the Black Beast, Derrick Lewis, come into the octagon ready to face an undefeated prospect in Tallison Teixeira, and that is an interesting clash that could send waves in the division.
Our co-main event features Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, ready to tackle a challenge as he faces the up-and-coming Gabriel Bonfim in a match that will test him and likely reveal what Bonfim brings to the top mix.
Besides those, we are met with a bunch of interesting clashes to make this a pretty interesting 12-bout fight card, and we couldn’t be more ready to take our seats at the Bridgestone Arena to enjoy our Saturday.
At Gambyl Exchange you can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Texeira Fight Card Odds and Info
| Derrick Lewis +238 | Tallison Teixeira -303 |
| Stephen Thompson +301 | Gabriel Bonfim -385 |
| Calvin Kattar -101 | Steve Garcia -122 |
| Nate Landwehr +203 | Morgan Charrière -250 |
| Vitor Petrino -714 | Austen Lane +460 |
| Junior Tafa -169 | Tuco Tokkos +137 |
| Chris Curtis -357 | Max Griffin +265 |
| Jake Matthews +117 | Chidi Njokuani -147 |
| Lauren Murphy +450 | Eduarda Moura -769 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu -213 | Valter Walker +164 |
| Mike Davis -1250 | Mitch Ramirez +585 |
| Fatima Kline -1667 | Melissa Martinez +690 |
| When? | Saturday, July 12th, at 6:00 pm ET, 5:00 pm CST, 4:00 pm MT, and 3:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Bridgestone Arena, in Nashville, Tennessee |
| Where Can I Watch It? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira
Why Bet on Derrick Lewis?
At 40, Lewis remains the UFC’s all-time knockout king with 23 career KO wins, including a third-round stoppage over Rodrigo Nascimiento last year.
His experience in a big-fight environment is extensive, with 29 UFC appearances, including main-event bouts and a past title challenge.
Lewis’s strategy is straightforward: absorb Teixeira’s aggression, then land one explosive punch. He’s patient, thrives in chaos, and only needs a moment. If Teixeira starts strong and Lewis avoids early danger, a late fight bomb is a real threat.
Now, what gives Lewis a bit more of a chance in this one is the fact that he’s finally not fighting a wrestler, so he can freely let his hands go and because he’s facing a taller fighter, that overhand right bomb of his is a perfect counter to anything that Teixeira tries to do.
So, despite Lewis being 40, don’t count him out completely here; he’s still The Black Beast, he is the definition of a puncher’s chance fighter.
Why Bet on Tallison Teixeira?
Teixeira is an undefeated knockout machine with an 8-0, 7 KO’s, one sub record, with every UFC victory ending inside the first round, most recently a 35-second finish of Justin Tafa.
We expect Teixeira to kick at a distance, especially to the body, as that’s a massive vulnerability for Lewis. If he engages in the clinch, he needs to hold on tight and use his height to pin and wear on Lewis whilst landing knees to the body.
Teixeira’s striking defense is not a thing; his height is his defense, his reach is his defence, but the moment someone tries to penetrate, he absorbs a lot of strikes, and he tries to lean out of the way.
It’s an ineffective defensive style that does not mix well with what is potentially coming his way.
Final Betting Analysis: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira
Things are quite interesting, as this is a classic Heavyweight slobber knocker, and we had had a while since one of these came our way.
This one would feel like doing a coin toss, but our betting token lands on Tallison Teixeira to make the most out of his size advantage against Lewis.
UFC Fight Night: Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
Why Bet on Stephen Thompson?
At 42, “Wonderboy” remains one of the most creative and elusive strikers the sport has ever seen, built on a karate-footwork style that dominated much of his career.
We all know that he’s a great kickboxer, we all know his bladed karate stance is unique to him, but what we also know when it comes to this fight is that he’s going to be very busy with defending the many, many takedown attempts that Bonfim will use to get the fight to the ground.
There is little doubt that Thompson will have moments of success on the feet with his lightning-quick kicks, but it wouldn’t take long until Bonfim gets into grappling range and works his magic.
Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?
Bonfim is rather cut and dry with his style; he’s relatively well-rounded and can be comfortable striking on the feet. However, the moment he goes for a level change and ties his opponent up, it’s game over.
We anticipate a clear game plan from Bonfim: applying forward pressure, crowding the kicks, tying Thompson up in the clinch, then working toward the body lock takedown and aiming for a submission or back control.
Final Betting Analysis: Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
Expect Bonfim’s success rate to be based entirely on how soon he goes for the takedown and just how Bonfim secures a position, because we know that Thompson can be good at standing back up, so we suspect that there might be a bit of backpacking going on whilst he chases that RNC.
It’s going to be tough as a Wonderboy fan to see him go down, but he is fighting for the love of a challenge.
UFC Fight Night: Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
Why Bet on Calvin Kattar?
Kattar is coming off four straight losses against some of the biggest names in the division, so alreadyhe’sgot something somewhat good going for him.
The unfortunate thing is his age, as it is not only a factor, but it’s going to lead to a few side effects that may include an inability to take a power shot from Garcia, potentially bad knees and perhaps a trepidatious start leading to Garcia just walking him down and landing blow after blow.
Why Bet on Steve Garcia?
Garcia has what is legitimate KO power. We find it rather difficult to believe that he had success whilst retaining the punching technique of an Invicta FC debutant.
He uses the same two punches when he fights, head down and wild ferocious hooks, and whilst we can laugh at him for striking like that, he hits like a middleweight, and that much is evident from the success he has had in these last five fights alone.
It is hard to predict if Garcia can replicate that same kind of success he has had in his last five fights this weekend, because if he can, it’s only going to propel him even quicker and as someone who love clean strikers who flow, bob, and look so slick out there, that would be a nightmare for us.
Final Betting Analysis: Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
The moment Round One starts, Garcia will march forward and throw with disgusting intent. He might even make Kattar retreat and stumble a bit as Kattar does need to fight technically to thrive.
Kattar is likely to be the more technical boxer in this fight, as Garcia tends to throw punches in a highly unorthodox manner. However, Kattar needs to approach more defensively, drawing out Garcia’s heavy strikes to tire him out. If Garcia connects with Kattar, it could be lights out for him.
This isn’t Kattar’s first rodeo in facing a dangerous striker, but we believe firmly that this is the hardest hitting fighter he has faced aside from Emmett, but we think he will thrive.
UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charrière
Why Bet on Nate Landwehr?
Landwehr recently lost to Doo Ho Choi, who utilized his new wrestling skills to dominate the fight, leading to a ground-and-pound until the referee stopped the match.
The good news for Landwehr in that horrific situation is that Landwehr never got knocked out; it was a ref stoppage, so he’s practically fine. The bad news about Landwehr is that he’s very, very hittable, and we believe we’re going to see him march forward relentlessly but also be chewed up by the cleaner strikes of Charrière, so we’re probably going to see a bruised and battered Landwehr at the end of the fight.
Why Bet on Morgan Charrière?
Charrière is one of those fighters who we are excited about, but also concerned about how he may handle Nate Landwehr’s insurmountable pressure. It’s not necessarily a new thing that he’s going to deal with, but it’s an exhausting style that may push him to the limits.
We can’t help but think that he’s accustomed to high-paced and highly technical fights. However, the problem with Landwehr is that he’s not technical; he’s brutal, and that’s different. It’s a style that forces a retreat, and we don’t think we’ve seen Charrière on the back foot for an extended period.
Final Betting Analysis: Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charrière
Things are going to be exciting here, but Charrière is too scrappy and well-rounded to be caught off guard by Landwehr’s pressure-style fighting. Charrière is a tough puzzle to solve; he’s exceptionally well-rounded and much quicker than Landwehr. We expect to see Charrière fighting defensively for extended periods, yet he will still effectively land points and ultimately win the decision.
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane
Why Bet on Vitor Petrino?
Petrino is moving up in weight here and whilst a fighter going from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight does sometimes raise alarms due to the added weight and such, we do believe that from a comparison of technique, Petrino is miles ahead of Lane here and we think we’re going to see that skill gap this weekend.
He’s is a very dangerous striker who is quite clean with his combinations and doesn’t throw anything hazardously.
Petrino was built like a monster at 205, and we are intrigued to see how he looks at Heavyweight and how much of his speed and snappiness will be reduced or changed due to that gain in mass.
Why Bet on Austen Lane?
Lane packs heavy knockout power, boasting 11 KO’s in 13 wins and nine first-round finishes. However, inconsistencies have marred his UFC tenure: he’s 1-4 in his last five fights, with multiple early KO losses and shaky takedown defense.
Still, Lane’s path to victory is simple: land an early bomb before Petrino establishes rhythm.
While he does have the longer reach and appears to be the bigger fighter, if technique and style do not overwhelm or counter his opponent’s style, it is difficult to predict how Lane will approach this fight other than seeking a quick knockout.
Final Betting Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane
We believe we’ll see Petrino look slower and perhaps more fatigued in the second and third rounds, unless he has made a complete change and has adapted to heavyweight exceptionally well.
Petrino is not a volume-heavy fighter, so we expect intermittent action with high effectiveness of strikes from the kickboxer, especially if he starts to feel the flow a bit and uses his teeps to soften up the target to get that win.
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
Why Bet on Junior Tafa?
Tafa is finally making his Light Heavyweight start in the UFC after a somewhat rough start at Heavyweight.
In terms of technique and style, he has always been a solid fighter on the feet with very snappy kicks and solid punching strikes. One underrated aspect of his fighting style is his clinch game. He remains quite active when engaged with his opponent in the clinch, and we anticipate that he will tie up Tokkos to land some strong strikes before separating for another striking sequence.
Tafa struggles with dealing with pressure. He will give up his side of the Octagon quicker than he tapped to the heel hook by Valter Walker, he also has a massive vulnerability to leg kicks.
Why Bet on Tuco Tokkos?
The 34-year-old former Bellator fighter brings a grappling-heavy toolkit, boasting a 40% takedown accuracy and strong submission ability.
Tuco Tokkos has a wealth of experience behind him compared to Tafa. We expect Tokkos to be superior in wrestling. Takedowns will be a massive part of the plan here, as that is seemingly the path of least resistance for Tokkos.
Final Betting Analysis: Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
Tafa has a horrific cardio as shown during his fight against Sharif. We suspect that Tokkos will try to drag Tafa into deep waters through high-paced wrestling and a whole lot of dirty boxing.
However, we expect Tafa to thrive against the walking punching bag that is Tokkos, who will remain a live underdog if he can survive the initial storm and leverage his grappling skills as Tafa tires.
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Max Griffin
Why Bet on Chris Curtis?
Curtis is making weight at 170 for the first time, and whilst we have no doubt that he will make that weight just fine as he has fought at 170 before the UFC, we need to address the age and the fact that sometimes at an older age, the weight cut becomes more brutal and sometimes the body doesn’t want to cooperate.
Curtis is a fantastic and well-rounded boxer who is somewhat difficult to take down and difficult to box with unless you’re Kopylov and other high-level strikers.
The longer this fight stays standing, the better it will be for Curtis, who can easily find his groove and his timing as the rounds go by. He is durable and very slick on the feet, utilising all the weapons a boxer can use, including a ferocious uppercut.
Why Bet on Max Griffin?
At nearly 40, Max “Pain” Griffin is the veteran underdog known for his durable, well-rounded fighting style and ability to drag fights into decisions.
Despite a recent submission loss to Michael Chiesa at UFC 310, Griffin has not suffered a knockout defeat in nearly a decade.
His striking, particularly low kicks and counter shots, is sharp, and his takedown defense sits around 70%, enough to stave off grapplers.
He’ll need to stay composed under pressure, limit damage in early exchanges, and turn the fight into a tactical striking chess match where he can outpoint Curtis in the later rounds.
Final Betting Analysis: Chris Curtis vs. Max Griffin
The one thing about moving down to Welterweight after building all that muscle and mass for Middleweight is that Curtis is carrying some serious Middleweight power with him, too, so we’re intrigued to see just how hard he hits Griffin during this bout.
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani
Why Bet on Jake Matthews?
Matthews has had some incredible fights on his record recently with two solid wins over Phil Rowe and Francisco Prado, and the one thing we’ve noticed is that Matthews thrives in ferocious battles, he meets the tenacity of his opponent and does exceptionally well in firing back with serious intent when his opponent lets his hands go.
He is a warrior in all definitions, and whilst that sounds like a great thing to read, it unfortunately has some drawbacks. The main one we want to focus on here is the fact that he can be defensively exposed when he’s in the pocket trying to fire back with intent, we feel like he sometimes spends too much time in that area and that is a dangerous red flag or warning sign when coming up against Njokuani who has nasty, nasty knockout power.
Why Bet on Chidi Njokuani?
Njokuani is coming off three straight wins against some rather mediocre competition. Anyway, Njokuani is perhaps the biggest fighter that Matthews has faced, and that poses a few unique challenges for the UFC veteran.
Whilst we believe that in terms of striking technique and power, Njokuani holds the advantage, that weight cut is going to be a problem for him.
Teep kicks are going to be on full display early on during this fight as he wants to keep the fight at kicking distance to neutralise the hook combinations of Matthews, especially as Matthews is typically a crashing fighter, if Chidi can time those teeps to the body, we expect the solar plexus of Matthews to be beat up.
Final Betting Analysis: Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani
The thing that Matthews will have to be careful of is the knees in the clinch. Njokuani is a Muay Thai striker; he is an absolute devastator in the clinch, and we expect those knees to be a major problem for Matthews and a big reason for Njokuani’s success.
We mentioned that Matthews struggles with damage when in the pocket, and we think that will be his downfall here.
UFC Fight Night: Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura
Why Bet on Lauren Murphy?
At nearly 42 and a veteran since 2014, Lauren “Lucky” Murphy brings experience, toughness, and pressure to this matchup.
With eight knockouts and one submission across a 16-6 professional record, she’s proven her power and durability against top-tier fighters.
Her striking output, reach, and height give her a valuable margin to operate. Murphy thrives in late-round pressure and grinding pace; if she can defend takedowns and prolong the fight, her endurance and octagon savvy should tilt the contest to her favor.
Why Bet on Eduarda Moura?
Moura, at 30, enters with explosive grappling, flawless 100% takedown defense in the UFC, and high finishing proficiency, having nine of eleven victories via KO/TKO or submission, with five coming in the first round.
While less experienced, her blend of grappling dominance and finishing presents a major threat, especially early in the fight before Murphy’s cardio advantage becomes a factor.
A significant portion of her strikes come from her ground and pound. She rarely throws punches while standing, only doing so to raise her opponent’s guard before shooting for a takedown. Once on the ground, she focuses on delivering ground and pound or working towards a submission.
Final Betting Analysis: Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura
We are intrigued by what Murphy has to offer, but since this is the last fight of her contract and her retirement fight, we lack confidence in assessing how serious she will be in the fight or how prepared she is, especially considering her lengthy hiatus, which makes it seem like she is technically already retired.
UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker
Why Bet on Kennedy Nzechukwu?
Nzechukwu is coming into this fight with two solid wins against a pre-injured Chris Barnett and an awful Brzeski. We know that sounds harsh, but those wins mean absolutely nothing.
Nzechukwu is a very well-versed striker; he doesn’t have any particular style, but he actively uses all the striking techniques in his arsenal. However, the massive concern we have for Nzechukwu is that the moment he makes a mistake, such as a not-so-well timed kick or a knee, anything that takes away his ability to sprawl and keep at distance, he’s going to get taken down and mauled by Walker for 2 or 3 minutes until Walker dies from exhaustion.
Why Bet on Valter Walker?
Walker is someone we can barely trust these days but given that he has a somewhat short reach compared to both his height and Nzechukwu’s own reach, we suspect to see only one thing from Walker, and that’s quick forward movement and some heavy punches thrown followed by a takedown, all within 30 seconds of the first round starting.
If Walker were to win, it would be a submission within the first two rounds.
To revisit the potential drawbacks of Walker, his striking defense has consistently been weak; he heavily depends on seeking takedowns and disregards other options.
Final Betting Analysis: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker
If Nzechukwu can keep this fight standing and let his long strikes go, he should be able to win, but it’s hard to trust Nzechukwu when Walker can bulldoze his opponents and attack that heel hook like it’s a regular day in the gym.
Walker is a bulldozer who is on a one-way road, and the final destination is to beat out his opponent on the ground, either through ground-and-pound or submissions. On the feet, he could be brutalised by the striking of Nzechukwu, but it won’t take much until Walker finds a takedown or attempts one.
We still think that the scorecards will favor Nzechukwu here.
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Mitch Ramirez
Why Bet on Mike Davis?
Davis is coming off a tough loss against Fares Ziam. Although Ziam fought exceptionally well, Davis impressed us with several qualities: his ability to find reversals and consistently strive for better positioning. Doing this in a fast-paced, three-round grappling-heavy bout against Ziam is quite commendable.
Davis is exceptionally fluid on the feet; his footwork, stance switches, and speed when he strikes are impressive. He is not a headhunter; he doesn’t exclusively strike the head. Mike often sets up his boxing combinations with a body shot first, mixing up the target and landing with severity, keeping an eye for a left uppercut or a hook to the body. Davis likes to soften up the body early on, which is pivotal for success in later rounds, as Davis’ cardio is genuinely solid throughout all three rounds.
Why Bet on Mitch Ramirez?
Ramirez is coming off a tough loss against Thiago Moises, in which Moises obliterated Ramirez with leg kicks, leading to a rare leg kick TKO.
Before that, Ramirez somewhat struggled against Moises’s takedown offense, leading to the conclusion that Davis will use his wrestling in this fight, mixed in with his high pace and high-impact punching combinations, if not exclusively.
Ramirez has yet to have any success in the UFC, so it’s hard to believe that he belongs in the UFC, and he is now taking on a hot prospect who had one minor slip-up record-wise against a talented fighter like Ziam.
Final Betting Analysis: Mike Davis vs. Mitch Ramirez
Davis is likely to want to get the fight to the ground to mix it up. We have seen Davis’ level change quickly, even in some of the most high-paced moments of his bout against Mason Jones (perhaps one of his better fights).
We struggle to see how Ramirez can win against someone as well-rounded and as fluid and quick as Davis.
UFC Fight Night: Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez
Why Bet on Fatima Kline?
Kline is coming off a strong win against Dudakova, though it wasn’t a competitive fight, as it didn’t show anything new about Kline that wasn’t already advertised.
Kline is a fantastic BJJ-based fighter who has displayed control over her opponents on the ground. There are concerns regarding Kline’s early struggles against Dudakova’s wrestling offense. She responded exceptionally well, actively fighting for a better position and constantly striving to outwork Dudakova to achieve an advantageous position. When she landed in top control early in that fight, she started to land significant ground strikes.
Why Bet on Melissa Martinez?
Martinez is coming off a win against Alice Ardelean, a woman who seemingly breaks all the rules of high-level MMA and still gets away with it.
Martinez is by no means a fantastic fighter, she’s solid on the feet, highly active with her output and mixes up her strikes relatively well, but the one glaring problem that she will likely face here is the takedown output of Kline, the moment Martinez hits the ground we suspect Kline will be in full control with perhaps early moments of solid resistance from Martinez, but only during the early exchanges because eventually Martinez will fatigue.
Final Betting Analysis: Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez
We suspect that Kline will march forward here, looking to take the fight to the mat and use her quick positional advancements to get into a mount, and just land ground and pound until the referee steps in.
Either that or we see a submission set up on the ground. Whether it’s a KO/TKO or a Submission win, we think things are going to go down to the floor for most of it.
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