After the trip to Kansas City for the previous UFC fight night, we are now eager to go all the way to Des Moines, Iowa, in order to get quite an interesting clash in the Bantamweight division as the headliner for what will be quite a pretty fun 12-match card, with both new names and veteran talent spread out.
We couldn’t be more eager to see the main event go down, as we get the former Flyweight Champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, as he faces former bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen in a heated match.
The Co-Main sees a fight between two high-level grapplers. Reiner de Ridder faces the undefeated Bo Nickal in a clash that could see little grappling action.
Besides that, we got four more exciting main card fights, totaling six, plus another six prelims to get all the attendees hyped up as the event moves forward.
You can check all the UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Fight Card Odds and Info
| Cory Sandhagen 1.19 | Deiveson Figueiredo 4.8 |
| Reinier de Ridder 3.48 | Bo Nickal 1.32 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio 1.85 | Daniel Rodriguez 1.95 |
| Montel Jackson 1.454 | Daniel Marcos 2.763 |
| Cameron Smotherman 2.11 | Serhiy Sidey 1.73 |
| Jeremy Stephens 5.13 | Mason Jones 1.173 |
| Yana Santos 2.14 | Miesha Tate 1.71 |
| Azamat Bekoev 4.135 | Ryan Loder 1.232 |
| Marina Rodriguez 3.46 | Gillian Robertson 1.31 |
| Gaston Bolaños 1.68 | Quang Le 2.169 |
| Don’Tale Mayes 1.343 | Thomas Petersen 3.17 |
| Juliana Miller 2.925 | Ivana Petrović 1.41 |
| When? | Saturday, May 3rd, at 7:00 pm ET, 6:00 pm CST, 5:00 pm MT, and 4:00 pm PT |
| Where? | Wells Fargo Arena, Iowa, United States |
| Where Can I Watch It? | UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Why Bet on Cory Sandhagen?
Cory Sandhagen is definitely going to be a nightmare of a match for Figueiredo, similar to when Figgy went against Petr Yan, where he was outstruck 2:1 and lost all five rounds.
Whilst Yan and Sandhagen aren’t directly comparable fighters, they bring a similar intensity and volume to fights that we can’t see Figueiredo being able to deal with.
Cory lands slightly more than two significant strikes per minute more than Figgy while somehow also absorbing less. Couple that with Cory being six inches taller and a natural Bantamweight.
We believe this is, arguably, a more difficult fight for him than Yan was.
Why Bet on Deiveson Figueiredo?
We were certain that Figueiredo’s chances of making things work at Bantamweight would be slim. He’s too small, and his style is so reliant on power and dangerousness —which doesn’t translate too well now that he’s fighting heavier opponents, but also equally as fast as Figgy now that he’s older himself.
Figueiredo’s probably going to have to grapple if he wants to have a chance of winning. Umar struggled to do anything meaningful with his takedowns against Sandhagen until round five, and a decent wrestler like TJ Dillashaw only managed to go two for 19 on takedowns landed/attempted.
Final Betting Analysis: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Figueiredo feels like the perfect opponent for Sandhagen, who has been a mainstay in the Top 5 at Bantamweight for years.
We know he’s probably trumped by the division’s best and will never touch gold. He is undoubtedly good enough to handle an aging, undersized guy with minimal volume and might even end this fight with something to add to his highlight reel.
UFC Fight Night: Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
Why Bet on Reinier de Ridder?
RDR is a high-level grappler, a superior grappler to Bo Nickal. If this is a 15-minute contest that exclusively takes place on the floor, RDR likely wins. But we think everyone siding with RDR is forgetting about everything that has to happen before we get to that kind of fight.
All fights start standing. And for RDR to get the fight he wants, he must get Nickal down. In Addition, Reinier de Ridder’s striking is lacking. He’s slow and defensively vulnerable, and we don’t think he will offer Nickal anything to earn his respect on the feet.
Why Bet on Bo Nickal?
Bo Nickal is one of the most promising wrestlers we have ever seen in the UFC. Nickal doesn’t let an opponent get the fight down to the floor unless he wants it there, even if his takedowns are mostly clinch-based.
Of course, there’s a possibility that Bo will take the fight to the floor himself, but he’s already shown us that he doesn’t feel he needs to.
Bo Nickal got the same assignment here as when he faced Paul Craig—a one-dimensional grappler who needed to fight on the mat. Nickal, therefore, shot zero takedowns and made sure the fight stayed standing for 15 minutes.
We think it’s fair to assume he does the same thing here.
Final Betting Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
So, the winner of this fight is probably determined by whoever the superior striker is, and that’s likely Bo Nickal.
He’s not great, but he’s the more developing fighter and looks capable of throwing heat. He commits to a leg kick, varies his attacks to body and head, and finds a few moments to hit those big hooks and overhands.
Nickal needs to be careful about spending too much time in the clinch, as trip takedowns could have more success against him than your typical double leg. Bo should be able to keep RDR honest with threats of his power in the striking, where we think he’s the far more likely fighter to land a finish.
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Why Bet on Santiago Ponzinibbio?
Santiago Ponzinibbio looks to have fallen off the deep end. We’ve known that he’s been regressing with each passing fight (and not stopping to recover or take a break).
Seeing the 38-year-old lose a split decision to Muslim Salikhov was pretty bad, but seeing him lose two rounds on the feet to Carlston Harris was unforgivable. Ponzinibbio hasn’t looked better against a UFC opponent since 2022.
Why Bet on Daniel Rodriguez?
We don’t know why, but we always seem to find ourselves gravitating towards the possibility of betting on Daniel Rodriguez. He is a gritty fighter with decent striking ability. He’s hard to look good against if you’re a fellow striker.
Daniel Rodriguez is no world-beater, but we believe he’s a better striker than Alex Morono, Muslim Salikhov, and Carlston Harris.
Final Betting Analysis: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Ponzinibbio has been bailing himself out of these potential losses by scoring KOs late, but D-Rod is a tough dude, and we don’t think you can rely on him getting finished. Ian Garry is the only guy to have done it so far, and it came via a head kick.
We believe Ponzinibbio will not have any luck in this clash, so D-Rod should take the win here.
UFC Fight Night: Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
Why Bet on Montel Jackson?
Montel Jackson is a very well-rounded fighter with an obviously challenging size and frame. With six inches of reach, he will present initial challenges to Marcos’s distance-based kickboxing style.
Furthermore, Jackson averages 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, which makes him the most likely candidate to test Marcos’ unknown grappling abilities. Jackson has also shown good fight IQ in the UFC so far, weaponizing his well-roundedness to adjust his game plan so that he exploits the opponent’s weaknesses.
Why Bet on Daniel Marcos?
Daniel Marcos is a talented striker and one we enjoy watching. But it has always bothered us that his strength of schedule has always seemingly leaned towards fellow strikers. With that in mind, it’s not shocking to see him undefeated in the UFC because he’s yet to face a decent striker.
His takedown defense rate of 88% is very much a fudged number. His record also has asterisks —the Aoriqileng NC was a domination prior to the low blow quit job, and the Davey Grant decision win is widely considered a robbery.
Final Betting Analysis: Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
So, whilst we can’t necessarily say that one fighter will display clear dominance against the other, Montel Jackson has many more things in his favor.
His size will make Marcos’ striking less successful, and his grappling can nullify it entirely. It’s an uphill battle for Marcos, and you shouldn’t expect him to be favored.
UFC Fight Night: Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
Why Bet on Cameron Smotherman?
Cameron Smotherman defied the odds in his UFC debut to beat Jake Hadley, but we feel that story was a bit overblown by the fact Hadley was allowed to be a -900 favorite. Hadley’s is not a good fighter.
We watched a couple of Cameron’s fights, and we weren’t that impressed. He’s a small little tank, but aside from having power and being enthusiastic, we don’t think there’s a whole lot to like there.
Why Bet on Serhiy Sidey?
Serhiy Sidey is the opposite. He’s a lankier striker with some defensive issues and bad takedown defense.
We could see Smotherman chinning him, or we could see Sidey being the better minute winner, which is a way to say he is the most skilled of the two.
Final Betting Analysis: Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
This fight is a copycat of the Sean Woodson vs. Dan Ige fight.
Even though we don’t have any strong opinions here, we believe that Serhiy Sidey will make the most of those 15 minutes.
We think that Smotherman will be able to give him some scares but not land the required power shots to steal the win.
UFC Fight Night: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
Why Bet on Jeremy Stephens?
We did not anticipate Jeremy Stephens returning to the UFC. We’re unsure if any fighter has come back to the UFC after competing in multiple matches in the BKFC, as that organization has become somewhat of a graveyard for MMA careers these days.
It’s been three years since he’s competed in MMA. We know he’s a good striker with very reliable power, but Stephens’ issues have always been in minute winning and grappling.
His UFC record is 7-12, which tells pretty much all you need to know. He has also lost by submission five times.
Why Bet on Mason Jones?
Mason Jones is a fighter we were enthusiastic about when he first appeared in the UFC. We believed he would become a prominent British fighter, following a career path similar to that of Nathaniel Wood or Lerone Murphy.
His UFC debut saw him put up an impressive display on short notice to Mike Davis. Unfortunately for Jones, he got soundly beaten by Ludovit Klein, who out-grappled him and showed a weakness in Jones’ game.
He’s a well-rounded fighter who can mix grappling in if he needs to, so we believe he should have the goods to beat a 38-year-old KO merchant in Jeremy Stephens.
Final Betting Analysis: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
Stephens isn’t one to be counted out, as he’s tough and hits hard. Jones should look better minute-by-minute, but Lil Heathen’ can turn off the lights with a single punch.
We hope Jones takes the path of least resistance and tests Stephens’ 65% takedown defense, but it is hard to bank on it. However, we are taking Jones as our pick for this fight.
UFC Fight Night: Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate
Why Bet on Yana Santos?
Yana Santos has historically struggled against wrestler/grappler types.
Santos got controlled for almost 10 minutes by lifelong striker Holly Holm and nine minutes against Ketlen Viera, who doesn’t offensively grapple all that much and was taken down in all three rounds against Aspen Ladd.
We don’t think Yana Santos has successfully overcome an opponent’s grappling threat, except against Vieira, where she was awarded the fight because the Brazilian did nothing with her top control.
Why Bet on Miesha Tate?
Miesha Tate has only ever been good as a wrestler/grappler type.
She keeps herself in good shape, and her last fight showed her operating at a level that can compete with the older, veteran-type women in the division, which Santos fits the bill for.
We believe Miesha can take the fight to the ground, and if she maintains top control, as she has often shown the potential to do, she should easily find a way to win this fight.
Final Betting Analysis: Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate
Santos’ win condition will have to come from something low percentage. She does not typically have any fight-ending power, nor does she have a submission game, so we think the only way she wins this fight is if Miesha manages to self-sabotage.
UFC Fight Night: Azamat Bekoev vs. Ryan Loder
Why Bet on Azamat Bekoev?
We’ve seen Bekoev fight for three minutes. He sprung a good upset on Zach Reese. However, we don’t think you can go overboard in valuing that result super highly.
The ground striking was impressive, and the damage he did to Reese was evident with the way Reese was grounded for ages afterward, but don’t forget he had a split decision win over Dylan Budka just four fights ago.
Why Bet on Ryan Loder?
Loder gets his first post-reality show test here. The 2024 middleweight winner, Loder, follows the tradition of wrestlers finding success on “The Ultimate Fighter.”
Loder has some knockout power in his back pocket, so he has the solid base to make a bit of a run despite his age.
Final Betting Analysis: Azamat Bekoev vs. Ryan Loder
Bekoev is tenacious, even when faced with challenges, which suggests that this fight will be tough for both competitors. However, the key question is whether Loder has enough strength to prevail in what may involve wrestling.
We believe that Bekoev’s experience will lead him to a victory by decision in this fight night.
UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
Why Bet on Marina Rodriguez?
Marina Rodriguez does not have the takedown defense or the get-ups. When taken down, she typically spends the rest of the round on her back, with no idea how to get up.
She’s not a good grappler, but her strategy on the mat seems to prioritize locking down positions instead of trying to force a get-up, which is a good way to avoid getting submitted.
Marina has a long history of getting taken and held down by opponents, but no one has been able to finish her on the mat. She spent a lot of time on the bottom against Jandiroba, Lucindo, and Ribas.
Why Bet on Gillian Robertson?
Gillian is one of the best grapplers in WMMA. She’s improved her general top control, her finishing ability on the mat, and her initial takedowns.
She’s still a below-average striker and cannot be trusted to beat anyone in a pure stand-up fight.
For a fighter to beat Gillian Robertson, they need to either hurt her before she can get her takedowns going, have good get-ups, or have good takedown defense in the first place.
Final Betting Analysis: Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
We think Robertson will win. However, we strongly believe this is not the fight to bet on Robertson by Submission —Marina Rodriguez has proven herself to be very tricky to finish on the mat.
She would rather stay safe and lose a round instead of risking it in a scramble and making things worse.
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Quang Le
Why Bet on Gaston Bolaños?
Bolaños was a surprise pick to be taken by the UFC, but there was the chance that “The Dreamkiller” would get a shot at showcasing his kickboxing skills in exciting fights or get undone against better wrestlers and grapplers.
Through three fights, things led us somewhere in the middle, as he put together some solid showings and even flashed some skills on the ground in some performances.
That should be enough for Gaston to keep separating the fodder from the contenders as far as the UFC roster is concerned—a spot in which he finds himself once again.
Why Bet on Quang Le?
Le was slated for the 2024 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series before instead getting the late-notice UFC call as an injury replacement, and “Bang” came with some high expectations as a well-regarded knockout artist.
It wasn’t a shock that he was unable to figure out a high-level neutralizer like Chris Gutierrez in his UFC debut, but it was much more surprising that Le fell short and got knocked out by Long Xiao.
Final Betting Analysis: Gaston Bolaños vs. Quang Le
Things are not looking good for the Asian fighter, as Le’s tendency to stay patient and wait for the big shot looks like a fatal flaw at the UFC level.
While there’s still a decent chance that Le can find a knockout in what figures to be a striking-heavy affair, Bolaños staying safe and plugging his way to a win seems like the much safer bet to take in this fight night clash.
UFC Fight Night: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Thomas Petersen
Why Bet on Don’Tale Mayes?
Mayes almost seems worse off for all the options that his talent provides him, as he’s constantly undone by his lack of decision-making.
He will often pursue low-percentage spinning strikes on the feet, and he has done poorly enough on the ground to get submitted twice via heel hook over the course of his UFC career.
However, every once in a while, “Lord Kong” puts everything together, which only serves as a reminder of the upside that he rarely realizes.
Why Bet on Thomas Petersen?
Petersen is an intriguing heavyweight prospect who still has some potential. A well-regarded collegiate wrestler, Petersen’s approach has historically leaned on those gifts, finishing opponents on the mat up to the point that he earned a UFC contract in 2023.
However, “The Train” has done well to pivot a bit during his UFC career thus far. He got outboxed by Jamal Pogues, only to turn around and show a much more effective striking game to outwork Mohammed Usman in his next fight.
Unfortunately, those improvements meant little in a quick knockout loss to Shamil Gaziev in February.
Final Betting Analysis: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Thomas Petersen
Mayes could starch the Spartan MMA product at any point throughout three rounds, but the call is for Petersen to put in a more complete performance and coast out a win.
We believe that will be the case in this fight night clash.
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrović
Why Bet on Juliana Miller?
We are a little afraid that Miller might be on her last chance to make an impact. She was a standout personality on the 2022 season of “The Ultimate Fighter” before winning the flyweight bracket—a minor surprise since her game seemed to function on pure aggression.
However, it was hard to argue with her results on the season, so there was some intrigue as to how Miller would fare going forward. As it turns out, she has hit a wall at the UFC level, thanks to her lack of strength and athleticism.
Why Bet on Ivana Petrović?
Petrovic had a solid regional career that looked better on paper than on film. She wasn’t terrible in any particular facet, but a lot of Petrovic’s success relied on her size and durability, allowing her to outlast more potent opposition down the stretch after some rough starts.
Her UFC career has followed that trend.
Final Betting Analysis: Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrović
Miller might be aggressive enough to snipe this, given the Norwegian’s preferred slow pace, but this looks to be more in the mold of Petrovic’s wins against less consistent opposition.
So, our pick is definitely on Petrovic to get the nod in this fight night clash.
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