UFC 286: <\/strong>Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Leon Edwards?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
When Leon Edwards rematched Kamaru Usman for the 170-pound crown back in August 2022, very few fans were giving him a chance of winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After all, \u2018Rocky\u2019 had lost decisively to Usman the first time they\u2019d faced off in 2015, and while he\u2019d improved in the years that followed that fight, so had \u2018The Nigerian Nightmare\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Indeed, despite surprising him with a takedown and some ground control in the first round, Edwards simply didn\u2019t seem to have a lot for the champ as the fight went on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the clock ticked away, it seemed like he\u2019d complete a routine defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That was, of course, until Edwards landed a perfectly placed head kick with just under a minute to go, switching Usman\u2019s lights out instantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Kamaru Usman?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Given Usman had put together a run of 15 wins in a row, including five title defenses, a rematch was a no-brainer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So can \u2018The Nigerian Nightmare\u2019 regain his crown?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the face of it, he should probably be able to pull it off. After all, when you take into account their first fight, Usman has dominated Edwards for almost seven of their eight rounds in the octagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And he was dominating the division for the longest time due to his discipline and strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Edwards\u2019 head kick wasn\u2019t a lucky shot by any means \u2013 it was set up perfectly. Equally, though, it feels more likely that Usman could avoid a similar shot rather than \u2018Rocky\u2019 landing another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In front of his home country fans, “Rocky” may well feel unstoppable. He knows that he\u2019s capable of stopping Usman now, something that no other UFC star can claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, there is the chance that Edwards\u2019 confidence may turn into overconfidence. There\u2019s a chance \u2013 a slim one admittedly \u2013 that he\u2019s forgotten what a monster \u2018The Nigerian Nightmare\u2019 actually is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With all things considered, this could go either way, but it\u2019s hard to overlook all the dominance Usman had before that knockout loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If he fights a little more carefully this time, he should be able to regain his crown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Justin Gaethje?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Justin Gaethje is 23-4 overall with all four of his losses happening against champions or interim champions \u2013 Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Charles Oliveira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gaethje himself used to be the interim champ of the UFC Lightweight division in 2020 after defeating Tony Ferguson by technical knockout. It was the last time he defeated someone by KO\/TKO, which is his No. 1 preferred method of victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nineteen of his 23 wins happened this way, while he also has one win by submission, and one by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Rafael Fiziev?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Rafael Fiziev is 12-1 in his pro-MMA career. His only loss happened on his UFC debut when he lost by TKO to Magomed Mustafaev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From there, he went on to win six straight fights, winning the Performance of the Night bonus for three of those. Further, he also won the Performance of the Night bonus on two occasions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Azerbaijani fighter is incredibly fun to watch, with some of his moves going viral on social media, the best example being his Matrix-style strike dodging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His strike defense is decent, and he tends to land a lot of punches. Eight of his 12 wins happened by KO\/TKO, while he also has one win by submission and two by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Both fighters throw a lot of strikes in every fight, meaning that it\u2019s very unlikely we\u2019ll see the full five rounds on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We think one of the fighters is going to get too tired and the other one will take advantage of that. But who is it going to be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We say Fiziev. Gaethje got the skills, as well as the experience to win this fight. Our prediction is a TKO win for The Highlight in round 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Gunnar Nelson?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The 34-year-old Icelandic fighter is an absolute genius on the floor. He\u2019s a 3rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who\u2019s won the gold two times at the BJJ Pan American Championship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His record in mixed martial arts is 18-5-1, with two-thirds of his wins happening by submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s been fighting in the UFC for more than a decade, but in the last couple of years, Nelson hasn\u2019t been too successful. He did win his most recent fight \u2013 against Takashi Sato by unanimous decision \u2013 but before that, he was 1-3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Bryan Barberena?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Bryan Barberena is the kind of fighter who never refuses a fight. He was offered to fight Nelson a month before UFC 286, and he gladly accepted. This may seem strange considering that the last time he fought was last December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s when we saw him lose by submission to Rafael Dos Anjos in round 2 of a fight that saw Barberena get taken down four times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Speaking of takedowns, Bam Bam tends to suffer a lot of them. In fact, in the five fights before the Dos Anjos fight, he got taken down 22 times in total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Gunnar Nelson shouldn\u2019t care much that his opponent isn\u2019t Daniel Rodriguez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sure, in the first part of the camp, he was training for D-Rod, but the good news for him is that Barberena isn\u2019t much different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both are brawlers who tend to hit a lot, but also get hit a lot. Most importantly for Nelson, both are very susceptible to takedowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Knowing all this, it\u2019s clear that Nelson\u2019s path to victory is going to be to take Barberena down and finish him with a submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We place our betting token on Nelson to find the finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Jennifer Maia?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Immediately after Maia\u2019s title shot against Valentina Shevchenko, there was some interest in a rematch because the Brazilian was able to challenge \u201cBullet\u201d more than most at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, she\u2019s been unable to produce consistent results since then, splitting four bouts evenly against top-ranked Flyweights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
A black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai, Maia is well-rounded and strong for the division. She does a lot of her work at a close distance, from the clinch or top position where that physicality is most effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Casey O’Neill?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
O\u2019Neill is one of her division\u2019s top prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An undefeated finisher, the 25-year-old prospect has already won four straight inside the Octagon, but this will be her first fight back from a 2022 knee injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A jiu-jitsu brown belt, O\u2019Neill has proven herself pretty skilled in all areas. She can put up major numbers on the feet, chain wrestle well, and tends to stay ahead in scrambles on the canvas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
A Muay Thai black belt against an opponent who shredded her knee less than a year ago? Kicking the legs early and often should be obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Otherwise, O\u2019Neill likes high-volume, scramble-filled fights. She\u2019s young, confident, and aggressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those are all good traits, but Maia can flip the script by slowing the fight down. If she\u2019s able to wear on O\u2019Neill and shut down those scrambles with heavy top pressure, she can use O\u2019Neill\u2019s style and inexperience against her by racking up control time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O\u2019Neill\u2019s ability to safely advance position will be tested here. She\u2019s not the type of fighter to just sit on guard endlessly, but O\u2019Neill also has to make it a priority to keep Maia down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Balancing aggression and control will be key, as she doesn\u2019t want to give up an easy reversal or stand up when a more patient approach could still land her a submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Marvin Vettori?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Marvin Vettori will be looking to rebound from his loss to Robert Whittaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vettori was outclassed during the three-round fight, falling short in both the wrestling and striking exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite this, he’s an incredibly durable fighter who is very well-rounded. Vettori should be comfortable wherever this fight goes, and he’ll look to rebound to build a new winning streak in this contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Roman Dolidze?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Roman Dolidze is currently setting the Middleweight division alight. With performance bonuses in his last three fights over Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes, and Jack Hermansson, people have been joining the Dolidze hype train.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This bout will be just his sixth fight at Middleweight, a division in which he’s 4-1. His only loss at Middleweight came in his divisional debut to Trevin Giles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Much like Vettori, Dolidze is an exceptionally well-rounded fighter who can succeed in both the standup and on the mat, and he’ll look to add Vettori to his winning streak to secure a top-5 ranking in this bout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
If we consider the physical attributes, the Georgian has a slight advantage. However, Vettori fights in a southpaw stance, which might cause some problems for Dolidze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vettori lands more punches per minute than Dolidze, while both have similar striking accuracy. However, the Georgian has better wrestling numbers with better takedown numbers, better takedown accuracy, and a better submission average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, all these signs point towards a very close contest between two very well-rounded middleweights. But Despite Dolidze\u2019s exciting style, we pin Marvin to win by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s more experienced, having gone the distance with Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa, so we doubt that Dolidze breaks him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Jack Shore?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Jack Shore (16-1) followed his successful Cage Warriors run with five consecutive Octagon victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This set up a pivotal clash with Ricky Simon, who clubbed and subbed the Welshman to send him from 135 to 145 pounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Makwan Amirkhani?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMr. Finland\u201d battled his way to a 6-2 UFC start highlighted by post-fight bonuses for his finishes of Andy Ogle and Chris Fishgold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s since dropped four of five, most recently suffering a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to Jonathan Pearce in London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All but one of his 13 professional finishes have come via submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Shore has everything he needs to take Amirkhani apart: strong takedown defense, a quality engine, and good hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All signs point to a repeat of Amirkhani\u2019s loss to Pearce, which saw Amirkhani find early success with his powerful wrestling before crumbling under \u201cJSP\u2019s\u201d pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The extra 10 pounds are a concern, especially against someone with such a physical style, but Shore\u2019s grappling fundamentals are stout enough to weather Amirkhani\u2019s early onslaught until \u201cMr. Finland\u2019s\u201d legendarily poor gas tank gives out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sprawl-and-brawl turns into sprawl-and-maul as Shore survives a rough start to batter Amirkhani into submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 286: <\/strong>Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Chris Duncan?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Chris Duncan\u2019s (9-1) first Contender Series bid ended in disaster thanks to a vicious left hook from Viacheslav Borshchev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His second a year later looked similarly doomed, but \u201cThe Problem\u201d came back to knock Charlie Campbell stiff and walk away with a UFC contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Seven of his eight professional stoppage wins came via knockout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Omar Morales?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Omar Morales (11-3) went from upsetting Harvey Park on Contender Series to defeating Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez in his first two Octagon appearances. The momentum wasn\u2019t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday amid a 1-3 skid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Venezuelan Fighter steps in for Michal Figlak on little more than one month\u2019s notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales Final Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The hits Duncan absorbed against Borshchev and Campbell weren\u2019t flukes; he has some serious defensive liabilities and is just slow in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Odds are he won\u2019t make too dramatic a rise through the ranks before hitting his ceiling, but he should at least be a bit too much for Morales. Omar, who never quite managed to live up to the potential he showed against Park, figures to give Duncan the sort of gritty kickboxing match where \u201cThe Problem\u2019s\u201d power and offensive craft shine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Duncan\u2019s shown enough vulnerability that a dialed-in Morales has a shot at out-technique him for a decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
More likely, though, Duncan\u2019s aggression and output carry him to either a decision or a late stoppage if Morales\u2019 chin is still feeling the effects of that Uros Medic fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n