UFC 291: <\/strong>Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Tony Ferguson?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Recent opinion has shifted on Ferguson, as many have devalued his historic win streak and taken potshots at his greatness. Those people suck and are merely the latest example of MMA\u2019s incredible recency bias and \u201cwhat have you done for me lately\u201d mentality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Make no mistake: Tony at his peak is one of the best Lightweights ever. As it stands, maybe returning to Lightweight can ignite a bit of a spark under \u201cEl Cucuy,\u201d who looked truly abysmal opposite Diaz. If he can get his offense going, Ferguson has a chance here. Green is not a huge knockout puncher, and he generally likes to operate at the distance where Ferguson used to thrive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Bobby Green?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Green has style. \u201cKing\u201d fights with his hands low, relying on exceptional quickness and head movement to slip shots and manage the distance. He\u2019s one of the best at sticking a jab, shoulder rolling\/pulling their return, then sticking another 1-2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bobby remains unusually quick for a 36-year-old with 45 professional fights to his name. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Low kicks could be such a huge weapon for the former interim champion. Even in his slop fest against Diaz, he tore up his opponent’s calf. Against a jab and 1-2 heavy boxer, those same kicks could be massively helpful. More stabbing keep kicks could be useful as well, an important element of his game that Ferguson has been neglecting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on recent performances, Green is going to be able to land… a lot. He still has to maintain a pace that he\u2019s comfortable with for the full 15 minutes because if nothing else, Ferguson is still able to take a beating and fight back. The Latter’s back is obviously to the wall. He\u2019s gotten smashed in his last five fights, featuring very few positive moments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If he loses here, one has to assume that\u2019s the end of the line for his UFC career. And unless Ferguson comes out looking truly rejuvenated somehow, losing to \u201cEl Cucuy\u201d in 2023 would be a really bad sign for his future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At some point, Green\u2019s durability and speed will drop off too, and \u201cKing\u201d has to prove that it hasn\u2019t happened yet. We believe this will mark the end of “El Cucuy” in the UFC, with a decision victory for Bobby Green.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 291: Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Michael Chiesa?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Former TUF winner Michael Chiesa hasn\u2019t been in the octagon in 19 months, and that was after a lopsided loss to Sean Brady. Before that, he was submitted by Vicente Luque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMaverick\u201d does his best work on the ground and has 11 submission wins. Considering Holland\u2019s vulnerabilities to wrestlers in the past, Chiesa is being given a better chance than most to spring an upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Kevin Holland?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Kevin Holland has freakish reach for a welterweight at 81 inches and he’s put it to good use with 14 knockouts. Though known for his striking, he is a BJJ black belt and has been trying to incorporate a ground game to mixed success over his last few fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Holland wasn\u2019t in the best of spots getting stopped in back-to-back fights against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson where he showed his excellent striking power and limited fighting IQ. He got back on track three months ago, returning to form as he sparked out Santiago Ponzibibbio in the third round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Holland\u2019s struggles against wrestlers and grapplers do exist, but those struggles were against top grapplers and wrestlers at middleweight. Since moving down, he has looked great. The real weakness he has is his terrible fight IQ, which was evident as he had Thompson dead to rights on the ground, but opted to let him get up and the two resumed battling until he was stopped in the fourth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chiesa is nowhere near as technical of a striker as Thompson and struggled to get his ground game going in his last two fights. For all of his prowess on the ground, he\u2019s susceptible to submissions, making Holland a big threat on the mat. Kevin won\u2019t have to contend with a tricky striker or a massive wrestler bringing him down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Michael is predictable with his striking and doesn\u2019t have the size advantage that has beguiled his foe in the past, meaning that he\u2019s going to need to find a way to bypass Holland\u2019s abnormal reach and power to get him down, and we hardly doubt he will. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 291:<\/strong> Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Trevin Giles?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Trevin Giles (16-4) clawed his way out of an 0-2 hole by winning three straight, among them a noteworthy decision over Roman Dolidze. Another two-fight skid followed though he\u2019s since bounced back with wins over Louis Cosce and Preston Parsons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Gabriel Bonfim?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Six months after choking out Eduardo Garvon to win a Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title, Gabriel Bonfim (14-0) tapped Trey Waters on Contender Series. The win earned him a UFC contract, which he kicked off by submitting Mounir Lazzez in 49 seconds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of his wins have come inside the distance, 11 of them via submission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Bonfim still has his share of flaws that a patient, dialed-in veteran could exploit to great effect. We are just not convinced Giles qualifies because he\u2019s far less dynamic than he used to be and he\u2019s long been prone to questionable decision-making. And Gabriel’s hands and submissions skills are too sharp to allow those sorts of missteps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019d hesitate more on this pick if Giles still showed his former punching power, but as-is, he\u2019s doomed to be overwhelmed by a more violent striker and opportunistic submission artist. Bonfim clips him early and finds his neck for another quick finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UFC 291: <\/strong>Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rog\u00e9rio de Lima<\/h2>\n\n\n\nWhy Bet on Derrick Lewis?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Four consecutive victories earned Derrick Lewis (26-11) an interim title shot against undefeated Ciryl Gane, who dismantled \u201cThe Black Beast\u201d en route to a third-round finish. Lewis rebounded by knocking out Chris Daukaus but has since dropped three straight, including a submission loss to Serghei Spivac his last time out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Bet on Marcos Rog\u00e9rio de Lima?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
After starting his UFC career 2-0, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1) spent the next five years alternating losses and wins. He\u2019s since found some consistency with four victories in his last five bouts, among them first-round finishes of Ben Rothwell and Andrei Arlovski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rog\u00e9rio de Lima Betting Analysis:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
On paper, Rogerio de Lima is custom-built to produce a classic Lewis comeback. \u201cPezao\u201d is one of the most self-destructive fighters you\u2019ll ever see thanks to poor cardio and an insistence on grappling even when he\u2019s established a clear edge on the feet. Heck, we just saw him lose the third round to a one-legged Waldo Cortes-Acosta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even acknowledging that his recent defeats came to top-notch Heavyweights, though, his ability to execute is a big question mark. His classic \u201cjust get up\u201d approach failed against Serghei Spivac and his punch resistance failed against Tai Tuivasa. In other words, it\u2019s hard to trust him against a murderous puncher with strong takedowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whether it\u2019s Rogerio de Lima\u2019s classic swarming assault, the quick takedown he employed against Andrei Arlovski or the patient approach that beat Cortes-Acosta, we think Rogerio will break Lewis down before \u201cThe Black Beast\u201d can turn things around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n