{"id":34930,"date":"2024-09-12T15:13:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T21:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=34930"},"modified":"2024-09-12T15:13:34","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T21:13:34","slug":"ufc-306-omalley-vs-dvalishvili","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/ufc\/ufc-306-omalley-vs-dvalishvili\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 306: O\u2019Malley vs. Dvalishvili Fight Card Odds and Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The UFC is getting ready to make it or break it, as they come to Las Vegas to put on a huge event for the UFC 306. All the eyes are placed on them as we go to the Sphere, inwhathas been pointed out by Dana White to be a one-time thing, which could be even bigger than UFC 300.

This is also labeled as Noche UFC, as they are doing this event right on the weekend of Mexican Independence Day. That means both, the Latino community and Mexican fighters, are more than ready to take the spotlight in this historic event for the promotion.

Even though the Headliner will be placing in some star power with Sean O’Malley taking the challenge of dealing with Merab Dvalishvili in the main event, we get the Mexican Champion, Alexa Grasso doing her 3rd fight with Valentina Shevchenko, trying to put an end to their rivalry with a big statement, as her opponent tries to get her Belt back.

Besides that, we get a fun clash between Brian Ortega, and Diego Lopez, who are well received by the Latino community and are likely to bring us an excellent grappling exchange in their about. Besides that, we, indeed, have a ton of Mexican representatives at the event.

The Mexican names include Daniel Zellhuber, Ronaldo Rodriguez, Irene Aldana, Manuel Torres, Yazmin Jauregui, and Edgar Chairez. We also have Raul Rosas Jr. who represents his Mexican heritage, and the aforementioned Champion, Alexa Grasso.

This event will be quite shorter than usual though, as it will have only 10 fights, split even into 5 main events and 5 prelims, so we are ready to break it down.

You can check all the\u00a0UFC\/MMA <\/a>bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: O\u2019Malley vs. Dvalishvili Fight Card Odds and Info<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Sean O’Malley 1.79<\/em><\/td>Merab Dvalishvili 2.02<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Alexa Grasso 1.77<\/em><\/td>Valentina Shevchenko 2.06<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Brian Ortega 2.487<\/em><\/td>Diego Lopes 1.55<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Daniel Zellhuber 1.44<\/em><\/td>Esteban Ribovics 2.832<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Ronaldo Rodr\u00edguez 1.71<\/em><\/td>Ode Osbourne 2.16<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Irene Aldana 1.92<\/em><\/td>Norma Dumont 1.86<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Manuel Torres 1.8<\/em><\/td>Ignacio Bahamondes 1.97<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Yazmin Jauregui 1.178<\/em><\/td>Ketlen Souza 4.79<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Edgar Ch\u00e1irez 2.905<\/em><\/td>Joshua Van 1.41<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Raul Rosas Jr. 1.09<\/em><\/td>Aoriqileng 7.02<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Saturday, September 14th, at 7:30 pm ET, 6:30 pm CST, 5:30 pm MT, and 4:30 pm PT<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>The Sphere, in Las Vegas, Nevada<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where can I watch it?<\/strong><\/td>UFC Fight Pass<\/em><\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Sean O’Malley?<\/strong>

O\u2019Malley\u00a0has looked better and better every time we see him, even though we don’t like him much on a personal level. However, he has a unique ability to strike as effectively on the retreat as he does when he\u2019s marching down his opponents, and we think striking is going to be his primary and perhaps only way to win this fight.

The way he led Sterling into a lunging attack only to counter with a right hook, led to the fight being finished within a minute. One minute is all it took to finish someone who had all the momentum behind him with a fantastic win over Yan and Dillashaw.

O\u2019Malley is going to have to deal with one main thing though, and that\u2019s the insurmountable wrestling pressure and volume of takedown attempts that Dvalishvili is so well known for, and we don\u2019t know if O\u2019Malley can deal with that.

The simplicity of this fight is clear, O\u2019Malley is going to find vast success if the fight remains standing. His counterhooks and straights upon his opponent entering range are going to be pivotal in potentially slowing down the forward pressure and sporadic level change pace that Dvalishvili is so outlandishly good at.

Why Bet on Merab Dvalishvili?<\/strong>

Dvalishvili’s cardio is abso-fucking-lutely ridiculous, his wrestling and the sheer pace are just so damn silly and unrealistic. He is “The Machine” for a reason, and we think if he can avoid all of the striking exchanges through sheer pressure and force, he can easily steal the belt from O’Malley. That said, he has a highly questionable chin, one that has been tested by so many of his opponents, and we do not like the prospect of Dvalishvili \u201ctesting\u201d his chin against a sniper like O\u2019Malley.

We expect a lot of rapid-level change feints, a quick burst of striking\/punching volume on the feet followed by a grab for the waist or leg of O\u2019Malley. That, or a counter-level change timed off of O\u2019Malley\u2019s offensive jabs or straights.

If Dvalishvili approaches with a high stance andwalks O\u2019Malley down, we suspect that is when O\u2019Malley will snipe as he did against Sterling, so really the only way for Dvalishvili to win is honestly from those two different approaches to a level change.

Final Betting Analysis: <\/strong>Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili <\/strong><\/em>

The good news for O\u2019Malley in this fight is that his ability to counter off the back foot is going to be highly effective against a fighter whose defense is his wrestling offense. Sure, Merab likes to clash in the pocket and throw hard, but he\u2019s far from a better striker than O\u2019Malley is.

We have to point out that for the challenger, the success of his takedown is a bit irrelevant because of how sticky Dvalishvili is when he\u2019s in grappling range. He doesn\u2019t let go, it\u2019s life or death for him when it comes to wrestling, and for the most part, he\u2019s great at achieving success through sheer pressure and volume of attempts alone.

We guess that Merab will not suffer the same mistakes that Aljo went through in his fight with O’Malley. He can break through and steal the win with his wrestling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Alexa Grasso?<\/strong>

Grasso\u00a0has completely transformed throughout her career and looked outstanding during her fights against Shevchenko.\u00a0Her boxing was clean and she was able to push her rival deep into the final rounds, but it did not come without adversity. Valentina is also going to look exceptional, being one of the best strikers in the UFC, combat sports are her life and it shows whenever she fights.

The great thing about Grasso is that she can switch stance comfortability without losing any effectiveness on the feet. Her striking arsenal is very strong in both stances, and we think that the stance switches are always going to be a problem for a fairly static fighter like Shevchenko because it opens up more possibilities.

Grasso hurt Shevchenko a few times in the second bout, including a slick right hand off an exchange. Later in that same (second) round, we saw some gorgeous knees and elbows in the clinch. That is what Grasso can bring to this fight, action and an overwhelming pace.

Activity is key when dealing with a highly technical single-stance fighter like Shevchenko because whilst she has a somewhat impervious defense, activity still catches her off guard because she is reliant on using her left hand straight to counter. If there are different variations of attack from Grasso, something will break through that defense.

Why Bet on Valentina Shevchenko?<\/strong>

Shevchenko\u00a0is still one of our favorite athletes, but age and tiredness in the body are becoming a bit more impactful to her performances.

Shevchenko has fought incredibly well in her two bouts against Grasso, and we think the major turning points in the fight were the wrestling and grappling, areas we consider she needs to stick to to win. While mixing things on the feet, we have to give Grasso the nod.

Final Betting Analysis: <\/strong>Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko <\/strong><\/em>

Grasso has a distinct advantage in growing from her previous fight against Shevchenko, her growth rate has been exponential compared to the latter who has stagnated a little bit recently. However, that\u2019s not a bad thing because Shevchenko is already a top-tier talent, stagnation is only so bad if there\u2019s nothing to improve on, and, we don\u2019t think she can improve much more.

Grasso strings together combinations on the feet a lot better than Shevchenko, granted the latter’s pinpoint accuracy with her fundamental strikes is extremely high level.

If Grasso can clean up (or has cleaned up) her body triangle defense, and has figured out the right ways to scramble and deal with terrible positions like that, we are going to see her retain the belt again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Brian Ortega?<\/strong>

Ortega\u00a0is coming off a very strong win over Yair Rodriguez in which we saw his prime, doing what he is outstandingly good at doing, grappling and choking people out.

He made Rodriguez\u2019s ground game look non-existent, it took us by surprise because the latter always has a decent ground game. We believe Ortega is going to do the same against Lopes, and since his next rival does not have the best takedown defense, those transitions to the ground are going to come a lot easier.

However, on the ground, we think it\u2019s going to be incredibly fascinating because both Lopes and Ortega are elite-level grapplers. We are talking about absolute monsters in grappling, so we are very much expecting a Gamrot vs. Tsarukyan remake.

Now, we are more than aware of Ortega\u2019s history of getting torn up by strikers, but we don\u2019t quite think that\u2019s going to happen this weekend because Lopes isn\u2019t a striker. He is a grappler who is comfortable striking sometimes, and now that he\u2019s had numerous knockouts, he\u2019s fallen in love with that striking.

Why Bet on Diego Lopes?<\/strong>

Lopes\u00a0has taken off recently. He is coming off three first-round finishes against increasingly better opponents, but we must mention, thatto go from Yusuff and Ige to Ortega is not just a leap, that\u2019s a missile launch.

Diego Lopes is a very well-rounded fighter with remarkable striking but he is mostly known for his ridiculous ground game. He is such an assassin on the ground which makes this a fascinating fight coming up against Ortega.

As long as this fight remains standing, we give the advantage to Lopes, but that is not because he is a great striker or anything, but simply because Ortega\u2019s chin and his susceptibility to eating shots over and over make him a bit of an easy target to piece up on the feet. In addition, with Lopes being the taller and longer fighter, that striking is going to be a bit more effective.

The only problem is that Lopes suffers from what a lot of BJJ fighters suffer from, and that\u2019s terrible takedown defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes <\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We are still highly skeptical of Ortega\u2019s ability to take powerful punches though, and whilst he recovers quickly, we don\u2019t know if he can withstand and absorb that much damage. He has strong boxing fundamentals buthe doesn\u2019t move his head a whole lot. As a result, he is an unmoving but steadily approaching target, and if Lopes finds that chin, it could go badly for the former title challenger.

We think we are going to see Ortega initiate a lot of the takedowns followed by Lopes using his very active guard to set up submissions of his own.

We saw that when he fought Evloev. He was very dangerous on the ground, and we are most likely going to see that against Ortega because a win against him is nice andall, but a submission win against him is so much sweeter. At this point, Lopes is chasing accolades because he is on a good streak right now, but that hunger might just hand the win to Brian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Daniel Zellhuber?<\/strong>

Zellhuber\u00a0has a rather unblemished record outside of his tough decision loss against Ogden, and we must say, he has fallen under the radar of a lot of people.

His primary base is his wrestling. He has finely tuned his entire MMA skillset thanks to the expert training out of Xtreme Couture, and whilst we have almost explicitly seen his stand-up striking, we are quite intrigued to see just how good his wrestling is.

Zellhuber is a rather patient and methodical fighter. He uses his reach and length as a barrier to read and gauge his opponents’ actions and movements before he goes for a strike that perfectly counters or leads to a perfect retaliatory attack.

Daniel Zellhuber is great at sticking to the basics. He throws single leg or body kicks here and there, but it is his lead hand that sets up everything nicely, and due to that significant reach, we expect that jab to be the perfect weapon for success this weekend.

Why Bet on Esteban Ribovics?<\/strong>

Ribovics\u00a0is only three fights into his UFC career but he has looked terrific. He is a\u00a0fantastic striker\u00a0who has a disgustingly sneaky headkick and a whole lot of utilization of forward pressure and aggression. It’s that kind of style of attack that has directly led to a fantastic knockout against\u00a0first-round warrior Terrance McChinny.

Ribovics is still a ferocious kickboxer who is outstanding at getting in his opponent’s face and throwing heavy unanswered attacks. Still, it is clear to us that Zellhubers defenses and utilization of lateral footwork is going to make him hunt down a bit more in hopes of landing that knockout attack.

Final Betting Analysis: <\/strong>Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics <\/strong><\/em>

We have major concerns about Zellhuber’s ability to deal with the potential explosive flurry his rival is so good at using. Esteban can be a raging bull for only a few seconds but can deal an astronomical amount of damage, and it is during those short flurries of action initiated by him that we expect Zellhuber to deal with severe adversity.

We think that the reach advantage of Zellhuber is going to give him that extra bit of time to raise the shell and get ready for an onslaught.Thisis, not to say that Daniel will be able to eliminate that threat in totality through his defense, but we think that in a pocket exchange, Ribovics could pull ahead in terms of damage and visuals, but at range, it should be all Zellhuber, and then there is Daniel’s wrestling to get him out of any pickle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 306: Ronaldo Rodr\u00edguez vs. Ode Osbourne <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Ronaldo Rodr\u00edguez?<\/strong>

Rodriguez\u00a0is coming off a pretty exciting debut win against Denys Bondar, and whilst he got smacked with strong, quick overhand rights and taken down, it was clear he is very comfortable on the ground. He has an active submission game and can lock in submissions off his back frequently.

That is perhaps where the good stuff ends, however. The reason is that he looks like a ridiculously static target on the feet, and sure, his style is practically \u201cwalk down and strike hard\u201d, but hejustlooks so silly doing that.

Why Bet on Ode Osbourne?<\/strong>

Osbourne\u00a0himself is in a weird position in his career yet he\u2019s the opener for the main PPV card. The face that PPV buyers first see walk into the octagon is his.

Ode has been having a rough time against submission threats recently. With back-to-back submission losses against Almabaev and Filho, things are looking quite bleak for him.

One great thing about Osbourne is the fact that he has good counterboxing. That would be a major asset and perhaps the main contributor to success in this fight for the Jamaican Sensation.

Final Betting Analysis: <\/strong>Ronaldo Rodr\u00edguez vs. Ode Osbourne <\/strong><\/em>

We believe that Rodriguez will have an advantage on the ground, but that is only because Osbourne\u2019s best attacks are on the feet. It\u2019s about as simple as that, and when you take away someone\u2019s length through takedowns, they are completely stunted on the ground.

Ode’s massive reach advantage of eight inches is going to be evident early on also as he should be capable of landing the standard jabs and check hooks, things that should be effective against a rather defenseless fighter like Rodriguez. However, if he can\u2019t keep Rodriguez at bay, he could contend with quick level changes or a ferocious short hook combination as he enters the pocket. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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