{"id":49036,"date":"2026-09-16T23:16:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T05:16:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49036"},"modified":"2026-09-16T23:16:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T05:16:34","slug":"ufc-331-van-vs-pantoja-2-fight-card-odds-and-free-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/ufc\/ufc-331-van-vs-pantoja-2-fight-card-odds-and-free-pick\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Fight Card Odds and Free Pick"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexandre Pantoja opened as a -200 favorite<\/strong> to take his title back. He is now a -113-coin flip<\/strong>.

That is a 200-point move toward the champion in six weeks, and it is the most instructive number on the card, because their first fight lasted 26 seconds<\/strong> and ended when Pantoja injured his elbow. Nobody learned anything that night. The market has spent a month and a half deciding what to do with that, and it has landed on the 24-year-old.

We also owe you a scoring note. Our Noche UFC selections went badly: Jean Silva submitted Jose Delgado in the third<\/strong>, Brandon Moreno edged Joseph Morales on a split decision<\/strong>, and Tommy McMillen beat Marwan Rahiki on the cards<\/strong>: three main card picks, three losses. The corrections we are making this week are in the picks themselves, and we explain them at the end.

Catch this Saturday’s UFC\/MMA<\/a> event with full fight analysis and betting insights, then keep the adrenaline going at Gambyl Casino<\/a>, where exclusive promos and nonstop casino action bring fight night to another level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331 Los Angeles: Fight Card Odds and Info<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Alexandre Pantoja -120<\/em><\/td>Joshua Van +100<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Arman Tsarukyan -350<\/em><\/td>Mauricio Ruffy +280<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Doo Ho Choi -205<\/em><\/td>Patricio Pitbull +177<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Iwo Baraniewski -300<\/em><\/td>Alonzo Menifield +245<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Gable Steveson -1600<\/em><\/td>Sean Sharaf +900<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Charles Jourdain -150<\/em><\/td>Marlon Vera +130<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Robelis Despaigne -500<\/em><\/td>Tai Tuivasa +380<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Michael Aswell Jr. TBD<\/em><\/td>JooSang Yoo TBD<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Ryan Gandra TBD<\/em><\/td>Ozzy Diaz TBD<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Brunno Ferreira -110<\/em><\/td>Edmen Shahbazyan -110<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Casey O’Neill -190<\/em><\/td>Eduarda Moura +165<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Joanderson Brito -425<\/em><\/td>Giga Chikadze +334<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Saturday, September 19 \u2014 Early Prelims 5:00 pm ET, Prelims 7:00 pm ET, Main Card 9:00 pm ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where Can I Watch It?<\/strong><\/td>Paramount+<\/em><\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Flyweight Championship \u2014 five rounds<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Joshua Van?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The statistical profile is the most complete in the division, and it is worth going through properly.

Van lands 8.43 significant strikes per minute.<\/strong> That is elite volume at any weight and extraordinary at 125 pounds, and it is built on genuinely excellent boxing rather than point-scoring at range. He is 24 years old, and he fights at a pace where almost nobody can match across five rounds.

He also defends better than the man across from him.<\/strong> Van absorbs less: he prevents 58% of the significant strikes thrown at him<\/strong>, against 49% for Pantoja<\/strong>. In a division where volume decides scorecards, a nine-point gap in strike defense compounds every round.

And the grappling is no longer the hole it was.<\/strong> Van completes 61% of his takedown attempts<\/strong> and (the number that matters most here) stuffs 75% of the takedown attempts against him.<\/strong> Pantoja’s route to the belt is on the ground. Three out of four times, he will not get there.

The proof came at UFC 328<\/strong>, where Van made his first defense with a fifth-round stoppage of Tatsuro Taira<\/strong>, an elite flyweight, broken in the championship rounds. That is the performance Van did not produce in the first Pantoja fight, and it reframed him from Cinderella story to champion.

He has also been direct about his intentions, promising to finish Pantoja inside three rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Alexandre Pantoja?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Because before December, he was as dominant as any champion in the sport.

Four consecutive successful title defenses. An eight-fight winning streak.<\/strong> Consecutive submission wins over Kai Asakura<\/strong> and Kai Kara-France<\/strong>: two of the hardest men in the division to finish, both taken out on the floor.

That is the argument: Pantoja’s grappling is not theoretical. He submits elite flyweights, repeatedly, and he has never been given the chance to try it against Van. Twenty-six seconds is not a fight.

At 36, he is chasing the chance to become only the third man to hold the flyweight title twice<\/strong>, and he has been handed an immediate rematch without needing to fight his way back, an acknowledgement from the promotion that the first result settled nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The road to victory for Pantoja is narrow and specific:<\/strong> close the distance early, get Van to the mat before the volume accumulates, and find the back. He has done it to better grapplers than Van. The problem is the 75% takedown defense: he needs multiple entries, and every fail costs him energy against a man throwing eight and a half strikes a minute.

Van’s route is simply to fight.<\/strong> Keep it standing, out-land a man who defends nine points worse than he does, and push a pace into the championship rounds where he has already proved he can finish people.

The layoff is the factor the market has been correcting for.<\/strong> Pantoja is 36, has not competed since December, and is returning from an elbow injury. Van has fought and won a five-round title fight in that window. The line moved from -200 to -113 because that gap is real.

FREE PICK: Van -107.<\/strong> The champion is younger, busier, statistically superior on the feet, and defends the one thing his opponent needs to do. Expect Van by decision or late stoppage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lightweight \u2014 five rounds, non-title<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Arman Tsarukyan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Five straight wins and a 10-2 record inside the Octagon<\/strong>, against a level of opposition almost nobody at 155 pounds has matched. His last appearance was in Qatar in November, where he throttled Dan Hooker<\/strong>: the same Dan Hooker who has since been knocked out by Salahdine Parnasse in a round.

Tsarukyan has been waiting for years for a title shot, and the winner of this fight is widely expected to get one. That is the profile of a man who does not lose to a striker moving up in class.

The stylistic case is the oldest one in sport.<\/strong> Elite wrestler versus a dynamic striker who\u2019s takedown defense has never been properly stress-tested. Tsarukyan’s chain wrestling is relentless, he holds position, and he is comfortable across twenty-five minutes.

He has also stayed sharp in an unusual way, competing in grappling every month since the Hooker win.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Mauricio Ruffy?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Because 2026 has been a transformation.

Two dominant finishes this year, both against serious opposition.<\/strong> In February, he stopped Rafael Fiziev in the second round<\/strong>: Fiziev being one of the best strikers in the division. In June he went to The White House at UFC Freedom 250 and battered Michael Chandler<\/strong>, a former Bellator champion and long-time UFC contender.

The reason matters more than the results.<\/strong> Ruffy relocated his preparation to Australia and now works alongside featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski<\/strong>: a camp that has specifically fixed takedown defense for strikers before. The question everyone is asking regarding this fight is precisely the thing he has spent a year addressing.

And Tsarukyan has not fought since November.<\/strong> Ten months. Grappling competitively keeps you fit; it does not replicate being punched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tsarukyan’s route:<\/strong> level changes early, take Ruffy’s hips before he settles into range, and grind. He does not need a finish. Five rounds of positional control win him a title shot.

Ruffy’s route:<\/strong> stay upright for two rounds. If he defends the early entries and forces Tsarukyan to strike with him, the Brazilian is the better and more dangerous striker, and the Armenian has ten months of ring rust to work through in a five-round fight.

Who wins:<\/strong> Tsarukyan, more likely than not. Wrestling travels, and the gap in opposition quality is genuine.

Where the value is:<\/strong> not on him. -350 implies 78%<\/strong>, and that number does not account for a ten-month layoff against a fighter who has had two fights and two finishes in the same window.

FREE PICK: Ruffy +280, small stake.<\/strong> We think Tsarukyan will win. We do not think he wins nearly four times out of five, and the price offers no protection at all if the rust is real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Doo Ho Choi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

“The Korean Superboy” is in the middle of the best run of his career, a decade after the first one.

Choi is 17-4-1 and has won three consecutive UFC fights: his first three-fight run since 2016.<\/strong> He beat Bill Algeo<\/strong> and Nate Landwehr<\/strong> in 2024, then in May 2026 produced a body-shot TKO of Brazilian prospect Daniel Santos at 4:29 of the second round.<\/strong>

The detail that defines him: every one of his UFC wins has come by TKO.<\/strong> He does not win decisions. He finds the finish, and he has been doing it with Jung Chan-sung (the Korean Zombie) in his corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Patricio Pitbull?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

He is one of the most decorated champions in the history of sport outside the UFC, and his three Octagon appearances have all been against genuinely good featherweights: Yair Rodriguez<\/strong>, Dan Ige<\/strong> and Aaron Pico<\/strong>.

He went the distance with all three. At 39, in a division this deep, that durability is worth something, and +177<\/strong> is a real price on a fighter who has never been blown out.

The record inside those three fights is the problem: 1-2<\/strong>, with the only win over Ige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is a slugfest on paper, and the UFC’s own preview expects it to be.

Pitbull’s route<\/strong> is to absorb the early pressure, take Choi into the third, and win a decision the way he has contested his other UFC fights: toughness and experience. He has never finished at this level.

Choi’s route<\/strong> is the one he has run three times in a row: find the body, break the opponent’s posture, and finish. The Santos win is the template: a body shot in round two against a younger, fresher opponent.

The reading is age and trajectory.<\/strong> Choi is ascending and finishing people. Pitbull arrived with enormous expectations and has settled at the edge of the rankings, going the distance with fighters he was supposed to beat.

FREE PICK: Choi -205.<\/strong> One of the few short prices on this card shows a real gap rather than a reputation. Choi by stoppage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Iwo Baraniewski?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The single most extraordinary statistic on the card.

Baraniewski is 9-0<\/strong>. Since earning a contract on the Contender Series, he has recorded three consecutive first-round stoppages<\/strong> (over Ibo Aslan<\/strong>, Austen Lane<\/strong> and Junior Tafa<\/strong>) in a combined 3 minutes and 22 seconds of Octagon time.<\/strong>

That is an average of just over a minute per fight. The 27-year-old has never seen the fourth minute of a fight<\/strong>, let alone a second round.

The opposition is not padding, either. Tafa is a legitimate UFC light heavyweight with knockout power of his own, and Baraniewski removed him inside a round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Alonzo Menifield?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Because that same statistic is the open question.

Nobody knows what Baraniewski looks like in round two<\/strong>, because nobody has taken him there. Conditioning, composure, a fighter’s response to adversity: all of it is untested, and the one way to find out is to survive the opening ninety seconds.

Menifield is the man the UFC has chosen to ask. He is 5-3-1 since the start of 2023 and 3-1 across his last four<\/strong>, most recently travelling to Macau in May and walloping Zhang Mingyang<\/strong>. He is durable, he is experienced at exactly this level, and he has spent years as the veteran gatekeeper in the lower third of the rankings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Menifield’s route is the clock.<\/strong> Weather the first round, drag a man who has never been past 3:22 into deep water, and find out whether the legendary Polish power comes with a gas tank.

Baraniewski’s route is what he has always done.<\/strong> Land early, land hard, leave.

The honest caveat: -300 is short<\/strong>, and three fights totalling under three and a half minutes is a small sample. But it is a small sample in the way a pattern is: progressively better opponents, identical outcomes.

FREE PICK: Baraniewski -300.<\/strong> He wins inside a round, or Menifield wins the fight. We are taking the more frequent outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Gable Steveson?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A decorated amateur wrestler and undefeated professional, with a first-round win over Elisha Ellison<\/strong> on debut this summer. The physical tools are unmistakable, and the heavyweight division has always rewarded elite wrestling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Sean Sharaf?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

He is a local (a Santa Ana resident<\/strong>) and a US Marine Corps veteran<\/strong> who began his professional career 4-0 with four first-round finishes<\/strong>.

The UFC run has not gone the same way:<\/strong> a short-notice debut loss to Junior Tafa<\/strong>, followed by a second-round defeat to Steven Asplund<\/strong>. He arrives 0-2 in the Octagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The interesting thing about Steveson is not whether he wins these fights but how. He ate a few shots in his debut win<\/strong>, and the perennial question for any wrestling prospect at heavyweight is how he reacts to being hit clean. He has passed that test once. These early bookings are about him learning to slow down and use his tools rather than sprint.

Sharaf, 0-2 and finished twice, is not the opponent likely to supply a harder test.

FREE PICK: Steveson.<\/strong> He wins, comfortably and probably early. At -1600, there is no bet here<\/strong> (that price implies 94% and offers nothing), but the prediction is not in doubt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Charles Jourdain?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The move to bantamweight has remade his career. Jourdain is 3-0 since dropping down<\/strong>, with submission wins over Victor Henry and Davey Grant<\/strong> and a unanimous decision over Kyler Phillips<\/strong> in Winnipeg this year.

Three wins, two finishes, against solid divisional opposition. The French-Canadian has always been dangerous and aggressive; he now fights at a weight where his frame is an asset rather than a handicap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Marlon Vera?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

“Chito” has been one of the most durable and recognizable fighters in the division for a decade, and he has shared the cage with the elite of the weight class repeatedly.

The form is grim.<\/strong> Vera is on a four-fight losing streak,<\/strong> and his last win came three years ago<\/strong>, against Pedro Munhoz. He is fighting for his place in the rankings and, realistically, for his standing in the division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Vera’s route<\/strong> is the one that has always worked for him: absorb, accumulate, and take over late with calf kicks and elbows as the opponent tires. He is very hard to finish, and he has won fights from behind before.

Jourdain’s route<\/strong> is to be busier in the first two rounds and either bank them or find the submission he has already landed twice at this weight.

The only thing holding this line at -150<\/strong> is Vera’s name and his toughness. A fighter who has not won in three years is a considerable underdog against one who has won three straights in the division.

FREE PICK: Jourdain -150.<\/strong> The form gap is wider than the price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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