{"id":49231,"date":"2026-09-29T16:58:05","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T22:58:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49231"},"modified":"2026-09-29T16:58:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T22:58:10","slug":"nfl-weekly-update-week-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/nfl\/nfl-weekly-update-week-4\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Weekly Update: Week 4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Five teams are unbeaten<\/strong>, and the four best of them all play on Sunday. From this week onwards, we analyze the games of the NFL top four sides rather than the most eye-catching fixtures, and after three weeks the board has made that selection straightforward.

Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Minnesota are 3-0<\/strong>, and all four are rated inside the market’s top tier. The fifth unbeaten team, Las Vegas, is prized 125-1 and faces the Chiefs this weekend, so they feature here anyway, as the opposition.

The line movement is the story of the week.<\/strong> Buffalo opened at -3 against New England and are now -7<\/strong>. Chicago opened -8.5 against the Jets and have been bet down to -3<\/strong>. Baltimore went from -8.5 to -11.5<\/strong>. Eleven of the sixteen games carry spreads of four points or fewer, and the ones that do not have moved a long way.

At Gambyl Exchange<\/a>, you can explore all the predictions for the NFL<\/a>, the final bets for this Matchday, and the odds for each match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL Week 4 Games<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Steelers at Browns (PIT -2.5)<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Colts at Commanders (IND -3)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Jets at Bears (CHI -3)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Patriots at Bills (BUF -7)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Packers at Buccaneers (GB -3.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Cardinals at Giants (ARI -1.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Cowboys at Texans (HOU -2.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Jaguars at Bengals (CIN -2.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Rams at Eagles (LAR -1.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Titans at Ravens (BAL -11.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Dolphins at Vikings (MIN -10)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Broncos at 49ers (SF -3)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Chiefs at Raiders (KC -5.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Chargers at Seahawks (SEA -6.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Lions at Panthers (DET -3.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Falcons at Saints (NO -2.5)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NFL Week 4: Patriots vs. Bills<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Sunday, October 4 \u2014 1:00 PM ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where Can I Watch It?<\/strong><\/td>CBS<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
New England Patriots<\/em><\/th>+7<\/em><\/th>+250<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Buffalo Bills<\/em><\/td>-7<\/em><\/td>-310<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Over \/ Under<\/em><\/td>48.5<\/em><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This line has moved four points, and that is the whole story.<\/strong> Buffalo opened as 3-point favorite and are now laying a full touchdown. The reason sits in Week 3: New England were beaten 35-6 at Jacksonville<\/strong>, a week after holding Pittsburgh to three points, and the defense that looked like their season did not travel.

Buffalo are 3-0 and co-favorites for the Super Bowl at +670<\/strong>. Josh Allen opened the new stadium with five touchdowns in Week 2, and they handled the Chargers 24-16 on Sunday.

The caution is the same one we raised last week.<\/strong> Buffalo are scoring at an extraordinary rate and conceding around 31 points a game<\/strong> across the season: a +15 differential from a team putting up 38.5 a game means the defense is a real problem the market keeps ignoring. ESPN’s FPI makes Buffalo favorites by 5.7<\/strong>, which is less than the 7 the book is asking for. The number has run past the model.<\/strong>

Prediction: Bills 30-20 Patriots<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL Week 4: Dolphins vs. Vikings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Sunday, October 4 \u2014 4:05 PM ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where Can I Watch It?<\/strong><\/td>FOX<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Miami Dolphins<\/em><\/th>+10<\/em><\/th>+455<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Minnesota Vikings<\/em><\/td>-10<\/em><\/td>-625<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Over \/ Under<\/em><\/td>39.5<\/em><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Minnesota are the quietest 3-0 team in football, and the numbers are not quiet at all.<\/strong> They are allowing 12.5 points per game<\/strong>, generating four sacks a contest, and they beat Tampa Bay 23-16 after strangling Chicago 9-3. Their Super Bowl price has shortened from +5000 to +3000 in two weeks.

Miami is 0-2 against the spread, 0-3 outright, and have been beaten by 22 and 14 in consecutive weeks.<\/strong> A 4.5-win preseason total is looking generous.

The total is the best here, not the side.<\/strong> It opened at 43.5 and had dropped down to 39.5<\/strong>: the second-lowest number on the board. The market is pricing a Minnesota defensive performance against an offence that has not reached 14 points since Week 1. The spread moved from -7.5 to -10 in the same window, and both movements said the same thing.

Prediction: Vikings 27-13 Dolphins<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL Week 4: Broncos vs. 49ers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Sunday, October 4 \u2014 4:25 PM ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where Can I Watch It?<\/strong><\/td>CBS<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Denver Broncos<\/em><\/th>+3<\/em><\/th>+136<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
San Francisco 49ers<\/em><\/td>-3<\/em><\/td>-162<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Over \/ Under<\/em><\/td>46.5<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is the largest disagreement between a line and a model anywhere on the board.<\/strong> The 49ers are laying 3<\/strong>. ESPN’s FPI makes them favorites by 7.8 points<\/strong>, with a 78% chance<\/strong> of winning outright. That is a gap of nearly five points, and the total has not moved at all from 46.5.

San Francisco are 3-0 with the best point differential in football<\/strong>, having beaten the Rams, the Dolphins and Arizona. Brock Purdy went 20-of-22 against Miami. Denver are 2-1<\/strong> and beat those same Rams 30-26 at altitude on Sunday night: a result we called, and one that flatters them less on the road.

The reason the line is short is Denver’s defense<\/strong>, which remains the best unit in the AFC West and travelled well last season. But a field goal is a small number for a team this far ahead of its opponent on every underlying measure, playing at home.

Prediction: 49ers 27-20 Broncos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NFL Week 4: Chiefs vs. Raiders<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
When?<\/strong><\/td>Sunday, October 4 \u2014 4:25 PM ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where?<\/strong><\/td>Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Where Can I Watch It?<\/strong><\/td>CBS<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Kansas City Chiefs<\/em><\/th>-5.5<\/em><\/th>-238<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Las Vegas Raiders<\/em><\/td>+5.5<\/em><\/td>+195<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Over \/ Under<\/em><\/td>47.5<\/em><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two 3-0 teams, and only one of them is being taken seriously.<\/strong>

Kansas City is 3-0 with the most prolific offence in the league: 457.5 net yards per game<\/strong>, 32 points a contest, and a defense conceding 20. Patrick Mahomes has answered every question about the rebuilt knee, and their price has shortened from +1600 to +1200.

Las Vegas is also 3-0 and priced at 125-1.<\/strong> Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple touchdowns in consecutive weeks; they won 26-14 at the Chargers, and 35-27 at New Orleans, and nobody has adjusted. This is the game that tells us whether that is a fluke or a discount.<\/strong>

The total is the tell.<\/strong> It opened at 43.5 and had been bet up to 47.5<\/strong>, a four-point move toward points in a division game. FPI makes Kansas City favorites by 5.6<\/strong>: almost exactly the posted number, which is unusual and suggests the market has this one right.

Prediction: Chiefs 30-24 Raiders<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rest of the Slate in One Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Baltimore -11.5 over Tennessee<\/strong> is the largest spread of the week, up from -8.5 at the open, against a 0-3 Titans side that scored seven points at the Giants.

Chicago opened -8.5 against the Jets and are now -3<\/strong>: the biggest move on the board, and a five-and-a-half-point swing driven entirely by uncertainty at quarterback after Case Keenum started and won on Monday night.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati carries the highest total at 51.5<\/strong>, with the Jaguars coming off a 35-6 win and the Bengals off a defeat in Pittsburgh.

Rams at Eagles<\/strong> is the most consequential game not involving a 3-0 team: Los Angeles are 1-2 and still Super Bowl co-favorites at +670; Philadelphia are 2-1 after being beaten 27-7 in Chicago.

And the Saints host Atlanta on Monday night<\/strong>, with New Orleans -2.5 and the Falcons coming off 35 points at Lambeau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Five teams are unbeaten, and the four best of them all play on Sunday. From this week onwards, we analyze the games of the NFL top four sides rather than the most eye-catching fixtures, and after three weeks the board has made that selection straightforward. Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Minnesota are 3-0, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":43916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_angie_page":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","page_builder":"","footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_bluesky_share_type":"","_mastodon_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[89],"tags":[564],"class_list":["post-49231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-american-football"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t