{"id":49326,"date":"2026-10-06T19:00:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T01:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49326"},"modified":"2026-10-06T19:00:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T01:00:44","slug":"nfl-week-4-winners-losers-and-overreactions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/nfl\/nfl-week-4-winners-losers-and-overreactions\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 4: Winners, Losers and Overreactions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Atlanta scored 16 points in their first two games<\/strong>. They have now scored 80 in their last two<\/strong>.

Buffalo lost at home as seven-point favorite. Houston is 0-4 after losing to Dallas as favorites. Carolina beat Detroit. And three teams are unbeaten: Kansas City, Minnesota, and San Francisco.

Here is what NFL Week 4 told us, what it did not, and the call we got wrong after writing down the reason it would be wrong.

At Gambyl<\/a>, you can follow the entire NFL season. Check out all the latest news, predictions, and betting odds while enjoying a complete Online Casino experience at Gambyl Casino<\/a>, with fast action and intuitive gameplay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winners<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Atlanta Falcons.45-24 at New Orleans<\/strong> on Monday night, as underdogs, with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. combining for a franchise-record five rushing touchdowns<\/strong> and 207 yards on 33 carries<\/strong>. Michael Penix Jr. has been back for two games, and Atlanta scored 35 and 45. A team with a 0% red-zone touchdown rate in September is now the most in-form offence in the NFC South.

New England Patriots.29-26 over Buffalo<\/strong>, as seven-point home underdogs<\/strong>, ending the Bills’ unbeaten start. Two weeks after being beaten 35-6 at Jacksonville.

Kansas City, Minnesota, and San Francisco.<\/strong> All 4-0<\/strong>. The Chiefs held off Las Vegas 30-27, the Vikings ground out a 15-10 win over Miami, and the 49ers beat Denver 24-14.

Carolina Panthers.32-26 over Detroit<\/strong> as underdogs, from a team that lost its opener 59-37.

Chicago Bears.23-12 over the Jets<\/strong>, a second straight win with Case Keenum<\/strong> starting in place of Caleb Williams.

Indianapolis Colts.30-13 over Washington<\/strong> in London, their best performance of the season and a second straight win.

And the AFC North shuffled.<\/strong> Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday night to go 3-1 and tie Baltimore at the top, with Jacksonville also 3-1 after winning 22-17 at Cincinnati.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Losers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Buffalo Bills.<\/strong> Beaten at home by a team they were favored over by a touchdown. The defense we have flagged for three weeks conceded 29<\/strong>, and a 3-1 record now includes a home defeat to a side that had scored six points the week before last.

Houston Texans.0-4.<\/strong> They lost 34-30 at home, as 2.5-point favorites, to a Dallas team that had lost in Rio.<\/strong> Four defeats by a combined 18 points is competitive football with nothing to show for it.

Los Angeles Chargers.0-4<\/strong> after losing 30-23 at Seattle. Their offensive line remains the story of a season that is effectively over in week four.

Miami Dolphins.0-4<\/strong>, held to 10 points<\/strong> in Minnesota, and now without De’Von Achane for the year.

Tennessee Titans.0-4<\/strong>, beaten 24-18 by Baltimore. They covered 11.5 points, which is the kindest thing available to say.

New Orleans Saints.<\/strong> Conceded 45 at home on Monday night<\/strong>, including five rushing touchdowns to one opponent’s running back room.

Philadelphia Eagles.<\/strong> 2-2 after losing 24-20 at home to the Rams, a week on from being beaten 27-7 in Chicago.

Las Vegas Raiders.<\/strong> First defeat, 30-27 to Kansas City. The 3-0 start is over, and the division is the Chiefs’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overreactions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

“Atlanta are contenders.”<\/strong> They are 2-2<\/strong>. They scored 16 points in two games before Penix returned and 80 in the two since, which means the honest reading is that nobody knows what this team is yet. Two emphatic wins against Green Bay (missing two offensive line starters) and a Saints side that just conceded 45 are a small and favorable sample.

“Buffalo are frauds.”<\/strong> They are 3-1. The defense is a genuine problem, and we have said so for three weeks, but one home defeat to a well-coached opponent does not undo 38.5 points a game.

“The Browns are a playoff team.”3-1 and tied for the AFC North lead<\/strong>, and they have not scored more than 27 points in any game. Cleveland is winning low-scoring football, which works until it meets an offence that can pull away.

“The Chargers are finished.”<\/strong> This one may not be an overreaction. 0-4, a -24-point differential before this week, and an offensive line that has not held up once.<\/strong> The injuries are real, and the schedule does not pause.

“Carolina is good.”<\/strong> They beat Detroit, and they also lost 59-37 in Week 1 and 34-3 to a team with no quarterback in Week 2. Nothing about this team is settled.

“The Raiders were a fluke.”<\/strong> They lost by three to the best offence in football. 3-1 is still 3-1, and it remains better than the market’s 125-1 price implied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where We Were Wrong<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We predicted Bills 30-20 over New England. The Patriots won 29-26.<\/strong>

And we had written the reason for a bad pick in the same article.<\/strong> On Buffalo we wrote: “a +15 differential from a team putting up 38.5 a game means the defense is a real problem the market keeps ignoring,”<\/em> and noted that ESPN’s model made Buffalo favorites by 5.7 points against a posted line of 7<\/strong>, “the number has run past the model.”<\/em>

We identified the risk, published it, and then picked the side anyway.<\/strong> That is a worse error than being wrong, and it is the one worth correcting.

We also had Vikings 27-13 over Miami.<\/strong> Minnesota won 15-10<\/strong>, so the side was right, and the ten-point spread was never close.

What we got right:49ers 27-20 over Denver<\/strong> finished 24-14<\/strong>, correct and covered. Chiefs 30-24 over Las Vegas<\/strong> finished 30-27<\/strong>, correct side and the exact Kansas City score.

And the injury piece landed again.<\/strong> We flagged that Minnesota’s line had moved toward<\/em> the Vikings while Justin Jefferson missed two practices and wrote that if he were ruled out and the number did not come back, there was value on Miami at a double-digit spread. Miami lost 15-10 and covered comfortably.<\/strong>

One that went the other way:<\/strong> we noted the Packers-Buccaneers total had collapsed seven points to 39.5 and that markets moving that far often overshoot, while not recommending the Over. The game finished 17-14: 31 points.<\/strong> The overcorrection was not an overcorrection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The One Number That Actually Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Eighty points in two games.<\/strong>

Atlanta was the worst offence in football through two weeks: eight points per game, five interceptions, and not a single red-zone touchdown<\/strong>. Michael Penix Jr. returned, and they put up 35 at Lambeau and 45 at the Superdome.

That is the clearest demonstration this season of a point we have made in four consecutive injury columns:<\/strong> the quarterback position does not move a team a few points. It moves it from the bottom of the league to the top of a division, in a fortnight, with the same roster around it.

Chicago have now won twice with Case Keenum.<\/strong> Washington beat Seattle without Jayden Daniels and then lost 30-13. Four starting quarterbacks have changed hands since Week 2<\/strong>, and the results have changed two divisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Atlanta scored 16 points in their first two games. They have now scored 80 in their last two. Buffalo lost at home as seven-point favorite. Houston is 0-4 after losing to Dallas as favorites. Carolina beat Detroit. And three teams are unbeaten: Kansas City, Minnesota, and San Francisco. Here is what NFL Week 4 told […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":46738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_angie_page":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","page_builder":"","footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_bluesky_share_type":"","_mastodon_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[89],"tags":[564],"class_list":["post-49326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-american-football"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t