{"id":49367,"date":"2026-10-09T21:12:28","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T03:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49367"},"modified":"2026-10-09T21:12:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T03:12:30","slug":"mls-playoff-seeding-race-heats-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/mls\/mls-playoff-seeding-race-heats-up\/","title":{"rendered":"MLS: Playoff Seeding Race Heats Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What Each Seed Actually Earns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Red Bull New York are in a MLS playoff position with a goal difference of minus seventeen. New York City FC are outside with a goal difference of plus five.<\/strong>

They are level on 33 points. The Red Bulls are eighth because they have won one more match.

That is what the seeding race looks like with seven rounds to go<\/strong>, and it matters far more than the places themselves, because in this format the difference between seventh and eighth is the difference between a three-match series and a single game decided on penalties.

Four Eastern clubs are within one point of the last two places. Five Western clubs are within six points of the conference lead.<\/strong> Nothing below Nashville is settled in either conference.

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Nine teams qualify in each conference, and the seed you finish with changes the tournament you play.<\/strong>

Seeds 1 to 7<\/strong> go straight into a Round One best-of-three series<\/strong>. First to two wins advances. There are no draws; every match produces a winner.<\/strong> Home matches alternate: Match 1 at the higher seed, Match 2 at the lower seed, Match 3 at the higher seed.<\/strong>

Seeds 8 and 9<\/strong> do not get a series. They play one Wild Card match<\/strong>, hosted by the eighth seed, on Wednesday 18 November<\/strong>. If it is level after ninety minutes, there is no extra time; it goes straight to penalties.<\/strong> The winner then travels to the conference’s top seed.

The bracket is fixed: 1 vs the Wild Card winner, 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5.<\/strong>

So the three cliff edges are these.<\/strong>

First place<\/strong> draws whoever survives the Wild Card (the weakest remaining team in the conference) and hosts two of three.

Seventh place<\/strong> avoids the Wild Card entirely. Eighth place plays a coin flip, then the conference winner.<\/strong> One position, two completely different Novembers.

Tenth place goes home.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eastern Conference<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
#<\/em><\/th>Club<\/em><\/th>GP<\/em><\/th>W-D-L<\/em><\/th>GD<\/em><\/th>Pts<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1<\/em><\/td>Nashville SC<\/strong><\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>18-6-3<\/em><\/td>+34<\/strong><\/em><\/td>60<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2<\/em><\/td>New England Revolution<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>14-4-9<\/em><\/td>+9<\/em><\/td>46<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
3<\/em><\/td>Inter Miami CF<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>12-10-5<\/em><\/td>+14<\/em><\/td>46<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
4<\/em><\/td>Chicago Fire FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>13-6-8<\/em><\/td>+10<\/em><\/td>45<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
5<\/em><\/td>Charlotte FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>12-7-8<\/em><\/td>+9<\/em><\/td>43<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
6<\/em><\/td>Philadelphia Union<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>11-6-10<\/em><\/td>+10<\/em><\/td>39<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
7<\/em><\/td>Orlando City SC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>10-4-13<\/em><\/td>-16<\/em><\/td>34<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8<\/em><\/td>Red Bull New York<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>9-6-12<\/em><\/td>-17<\/em><\/td>33<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
9<\/em><\/td>New York City FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>8-9-10<\/em><\/td>+5<\/em><\/td>33<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10<\/em><\/td>FC Cincinnati<\/em><\/td>26<\/strong><\/em><\/td>8-9-9<\/em><\/td>-9<\/em><\/td>33<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
11<\/em><\/td>D.C. United<\/em><\/td>26<\/strong><\/em><\/td>6-12-8<\/em><\/td>-8<\/em><\/td>30<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
12<\/em><\/td>Columbus Crew<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>8-5-14<\/em><\/td>-4<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
13<\/em><\/td>Toronto FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>6-11-10<\/em><\/td>-12<\/em><\/td>29<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The East: Nashville Are Gone, Everything Below Is a Scramble<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nashville have 60 points and a fourteen-point lead. That race is over.<\/strong>

18 wins, 55 scored, 21 conceded, +34.<\/strong> The best defensive record in the league by a distance, and the only Eastern club with a goal difference better than +14. They will host the Wild Card winner, and they will host two of three in Round One.

Then it compresses violently.<\/strong> New England and Inter Miami are level on 46, Chicago are on 45, Charlotte on 43. Four clubs cover three points for seeds two through five<\/strong>, and seeds two, three, and four all host two of three while the fifth seed hosts one.

New England sit second on the first tiebreaker.<\/strong> MLS splits level teams on wins before goal difference<\/strong>, and the Revolution have 14 to Miami’s 12. That is despite Miami having both the better goal difference (+14 to +9) and the most goals scored in Major League Soccer at 64.<\/strong>

Inter Miami are the most entertaining team in the league and the most porous of the Eastern contenders.<\/strong> 64 scored, 50 conceded. Ten draws (more than anyone in the top six) is what a team that cannot defend a lead looks like in a points column.

Philadelphia in sixth is in an awkward position.<\/strong> 39 points, +10, and four points behind Charlotte. Sixth means travelling to the third seed with no margin.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western Conference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
#<\/em><\/th>Club<\/em><\/th>GP<\/em><\/th>W-D-L<\/em><\/th>GD<\/em><\/th>Pts<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1<\/em><\/td>Vancouver Whitecaps<\/strong><\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>15-5-7<\/em><\/td>+31<\/strong><\/em><\/td>50<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2<\/em><\/td>St. Louis CITY SC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>13-8-6<\/em><\/td>+12<\/em><\/td>47<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
3<\/em><\/td>FC Dallas<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>13-8-6<\/em><\/td>+8<\/em><\/td>47<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
4<\/em><\/td>San Jose Earthquakes<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>13-6-8<\/em><\/td>+10<\/em><\/td>45<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
5<\/em><\/td>Houston Dynamo FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>13-5-9<\/em><\/td>+2<\/em><\/td>44<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
6<\/em><\/td>LAFC<\/em><\/td>28<\/strong><\/em><\/td>11-8-9<\/em><\/td>+13<\/em><\/td>41<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
7<\/em><\/td>Seattle Sounders FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>10-8-9<\/em><\/td>0<\/em><\/td>38<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8<\/em><\/td>Colorado Rapids<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>11-3-13<\/em><\/td>0<\/em><\/td>36<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
9<\/em><\/td>LA Galaxy<\/em><\/td>28<\/strong><\/em><\/td>9-9-10<\/em><\/td>-7<\/em><\/td>36<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10<\/em><\/td>Portland Timbers<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>9-5-13<\/em><\/td>-3<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
11<\/em><\/td>Real Salt Lake<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>9-5-13<\/em><\/td>-4<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
12<\/em><\/td>San Diego FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>8-8-11<\/em><\/td>0<\/em><\/td>32<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
13<\/em><\/td>Austin FC<\/em><\/td>27<\/em><\/td>7-10-10<\/em><\/td>-12<\/em><\/td>31<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The West: Five Clubs, Six Points<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver lead on 50 with a +31 goal difference. They are three points clear, not fourteen.<\/strong>

St. Louis and Dallas are both 13-8-6 on 47 points, identical records.<\/strong> They are separated only by goal difference: +12 to +8.<\/strong> San Jose are on 45, Houston on 44.

Five clubs within six points, and the top seed is genuinely live.<\/strong> Vancouver’s cushion is one bad fortnight.

Houston in fifth are the team the table flatters.<\/strong> 44 points from 13 wins, and a goal difference of +2<\/strong> on just 34 goals scored<\/strong>, the fewest of any club in the Western top nine. They have won matches narrowly, and they have not been convincing doing it.

LAFC in sixth are the team the table punishes.A +13 goal difference, second best in the conference, and 30 conceded, bettered only by Vancouver.<\/strong> They sit sixth because they have drawn eight and have a match fewer remaining than most. On underlying numbers, this is the second-best team in the West.<\/strong> On points, they are nine behind the lead.

Colorado in eighth is the strangest profile in either conference.11 wins and only three draws, from 27 matches.<\/strong> Thirteen defeats. They either win or lose, almost never anything else, and it has them exactly on the Wild Card line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Goal Difference Problem<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Two clubs currently in Eastern playoff positions have the two worst goal differences of anyone in the top nine.<\/strong>

Orlando City are seventh with -16. The Red Bulls are eighth with -17.<\/strong> Orlando have conceded 64 goals, the joint-worst defensive record in the conference. Their record is 10-4-13<\/strong>: more defeats than wins, in a seeding place that skips the Wild Card.

New York City FC are ninth with +5.<\/strong> They have conceded 36, which is better than every Eastern club except Nashville.

NYCFC are the better team on every underlying measure, and they are the one in the play-in.<\/strong> The explanation is nine draws. In a league that pays three for a win and one for a draw, being hard to beat is worth less than being able to win.<\/strong>

The same logic is sitting in the West.<\/strong> San Diego have a level goal difference at 32 points and are twelfth. Seattle have a level goal difference at 38 points and are seventh. Six points, identical margins, opposite sides of the line.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Wrong Side of the Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

FC Cincinnati are tenth on 33 points with a match in hand<\/strong>, the same points as the eighth and ninth seeds. 55 goals scored and 64 conceded<\/strong> is the most volatile profile in the conference, and with a game to make up, they control more of their fate than the table suggests.

D.C. United are eleventh on 30 with a match in hand and twelve draws.<\/strong> The same problem as NYCFC, one tier worse.

Columbus and Toronto are on 29.<\/strong> Columbus have won eight and lost fourteen; Toronto have drawn eleven. Both need a run rather than a result.

In the West, four clubs sit on 31 or 32 points: Portland, Real Salt Lake, San Diego and Austin.<\/strong> They are four points behind Colorado and the Galaxy. Austin have drawn ten of 27: the draw problem again, and it is the single clearest reason a team misses this cut.<\/strong>

Sporting Kansas City are mathematically finished<\/strong> on 21 points with a -33 goal difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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