{"id":49383,"date":"2026-10-12T18:00:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T00:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49383"},"modified":"2026-10-12T18:00:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T00:00:53","slug":"nba-preseason-updates-and-what-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/en\/nba\/nba-preseason-updates-and-what-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"NBA Preseason: Updates and What to Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On October 5, the Philadelphia 76ers beat the defending NBA champion New York Knicks by 23 points. Five days later, they lost to Boston by 38.<\/strong>

The Knicks are 0-2 and lost at Madison Square Garden to Washington.<\/strong> San Antonio, the co-favorite for the title, lost at home to Atlanta. The Wizards are 2-0.

None of that will matter on 20 October.<\/strong> Stars are resting, rotations are experiments, and the leading scorers in these games have been Luka Garza, Payton Pritchard, and Bones Hyland.

What does matter is everything that happened before the preseason started<\/strong>, because this was the most disruptive offseason in years, and the title market has moved accordingly.

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The Preseason Results That Got Attention<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Date<\/em><\/th>Result<\/em><\/th>Note<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
5 Oct<\/em><\/td>76ers 120, Knicks 97<\/em><\/td>Sixers beat the champions by 23<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8 Oct<\/em><\/td>Hawks 123, Spurs<\/strong> 116<\/em><\/td>Co-favourite loses at home<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8 Oct<\/em><\/td>Wizards 111, Knicks<\/strong> 109<\/em><\/td>Champions lose at MSG, fall to 0-2<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8 Oct<\/em><\/td>Nets 114, 76ers 108<\/em><\/td>Jaylen Brown 18 for Philadelphia<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
8 Oct<\/em><\/td>Heat 128, Pelicans 118<\/em><\/td>Giannis Antetokounmpo 18 in a Miami shirt<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
9 Oct<\/em><\/td>Rockets 135, Mavericks 117<\/em><\/td>NBA China Game \u2014 Sengun 16\/10\/10<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10 Oct<\/em><\/td>Celtics 144, 76ers 106<\/strong><\/em><\/td>Thirty-eight points<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10 Oct<\/em><\/td>Raptors 114, Clippers 106<\/em><\/td>NBA Canada Games, Vancouver<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
10 Oct<\/em><\/td>Timberwolves 125, Heat 124<\/em><\/td>Ball and Edwards by one<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
11 Oct<\/em><\/td>Mavericks 132, Rockets 115<\/em><\/td>China Game rematch, reversed<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Preseason runs through 18 October. The regular season opens Tuesday, October 20.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Scores Tell You Nothing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Boston beat Philadelphia by 38, and Payton Pritchard was the leading scorer with 25.<\/strong> Two nights earlier, Boston beat Cleveland with Luka Garza<\/strong> posting 22 points and 10 rebounds.

Houston has rested Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, and Fred VanVleet across recent games.<\/strong> Detroit sat Cade Cunningham for rest against Washington.

A 38-point preseason margin between two Eastern contenders is a statement about bench depth in a game neither side was trying to win.<\/strong> The Sixers also beat the champions by 23 in the same week. Both results are noise, and treating either as signal is the fastest way to lose money in October.<\/strong>

Two things in these games are worth watching: who is on the floor, and who is not.<\/strong> That is it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Offseason That Actually Changes the League<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is the story of the 2026-27 season, and it was written in July.<\/strong>

LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers.<\/strong> The league’s all-time leading scorer, four-time MVP and four-time Finals MVP joined a roster that had already traded for Jaylen Brown<\/strong>, the 2024 Finals MVP, on 1 July. He cited Tyrese Maxey as a key factor in the decision.

Nick Nurse now coaches LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, and Maxey.<\/strong> There is no template for it. James called for a “bunker mentality” on his own podcast, which is the language of a man who knows the fit is unproven.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to the Miami Heat<\/strong>, ending years of Miami chasing a superstar. He and Bam Adebayo will form one of the most physically imposing front courts in the conference, and both play around the basket without much outside shooting.<\/strong> The fit question is real.

Boston traded Jaylen Brown<\/strong>, a full endorsement of Jayson Tatum, who is returning from an Achilles injury and sat out Game 7 of last season’s first round with knee discomfort.

LaMelo Ball was traded to Minnesota<\/strong> in a four-team deal finalized in early July, pairing him with Anthony Edwards in what ESPN called the league’s most spectacular new backcourt experiment.

Ja Morant was traded to Portland.Kawhi Leonard is now in Toronto.Charlotte traded both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges<\/strong>, bringing back Naz Reid, Grayson Allen and Dennis Schroder.

The Lakers paid heavily for Walker Kessler<\/strong> (a four-year, $130 million contract plus two unprotected first-round picks and two pick swaps<\/strong> to Utah) to put a 7-foot-2 center next to Luka Doncic. JJ Redick called him a “perfect fit.” Rob Pelinka defended the cost by pointing at supply: “those centers just don’t exist.”<\/em>

And Milwaukee is in the post-Giannis era<\/strong> under new coach Taylor Jenkins, with a deeper roster, no first-round pick this season, and no obvious identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Title Board<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Team<\/em><\/th>Probability<\/em><\/th>Implied price<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
San Antonio Spurs<\/em><\/td>23%<\/strong><\/em><\/td>\u2248 +335<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Oklahoma City Thunder<\/em><\/td>19%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +425<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
New York Knicks<\/em><\/td>13%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +670<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Philadelphia 76ers<\/em><\/td>11%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +810<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Minnesota Timberwolves<\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +1900<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Boston Celtics<\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +1900<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Miami Heat<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +3230<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Denver Nuggets<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +3230<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Detroit Pistons<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +3230<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Toronto Raptors<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td>\u2248 +3230<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Three things stand out.<\/strong>

San Antonio are favorites after losing the Finals.<\/strong> They moved from 22% on 1 August to 23% on 1 October, barely at all, despite everything else that happened around them.

Oklahoma City has drifted from 20% to 19%<\/strong>, and the reason is one player. Jalen Williams’ recurring hamstring problems kept him out for much of last regular season and the vast majority of the playoffs<\/strong>, and without them, the Thunder might have been the first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Warriors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a back-to-back MVP. The question is whether his best two-way wing is available.

And Philadelphia went from +6000 to roughly 11% on two signings.<\/strong> In mid-June, before Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, one book had the Sixers at 60-to-1. That is the largest market move of the offseason in any sport we cover.<\/strong>

The defending champions are fourth.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trend That Should Change How You Bet This<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since the Warriors repeated in 2018, there have been eight different champions in eight seasons, the longest such streak since the late 1970s.<\/strong>

Now look at what those champions opened at.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/em><\/th>Champion<\/em><\/th>Opening probability<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
2026<\/em><\/td>New York Knicks<\/em><\/td>12.5%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/em><\/td>Oklahoma City Thunder<\/em><\/td>9.5%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/em><\/td>Boston Celtics<\/em><\/td>15.4%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/em><\/td>Denver Nuggets<\/em><\/td>6.7%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/em><\/td>Golden State Warriors<\/em><\/td>7.7%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/em><\/td>Milwaukee Bucks<\/em><\/td>16.7%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/em><\/td>Los Angeles Lakers<\/em><\/td>5.3%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/em><\/td>Toronto Raptors<\/em><\/td>1.5%<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Not one champion in the last eight seasons opened above 16.7%.<\/strong> The Spurs are at 23% and the Thunder at 19%, both above the opening price of every champion since the 2018 Warriors.<\/strong>

The 2018 Warriors opened at 62.7% and won. The 2019 Raptors opened at 1.5% and won.<\/strong> That is the range this league has produced in consecutive years.

Two more filters worth keeping.23 of the last 26 champions finished top ten in defensive rating.24 of the last 26 were top five in either offensive or defensive efficiency.<\/strong> If a team you fancy is elite at either end, the history is against them regardless of the name on the jersey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Injuries That Actually Matter<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tyrese Haliburton has not played a competitive game in sixteen months.<\/strong> The Achilles injury came during one of the most memorable playoffs runs in recent league history, and Indiana’s whole season depends on which version returns. He has already missed preseason time with an unrelated right ankle issue.

Jimmy Butler tore his right ACL on 19 January<\/strong> and had surgery in early February. He is limited to individual court work as camp opens, with January or February a soft target<\/strong> for return. Golden State’s viability as a dark horse is almost entirely contingent on it.

Kon Knueppel’s moderate hamstring injury will keep him out of all of Charlotte’s training camp and the start of the season<\/strong>, which for a team that just traded two cornerstone starters is badly timed.

Brandon Ingram will miss the start of the season<\/strong> for the Clippers.

Aaron Gordon missed 31 games two seasons ago and 46 last season,<\/strong> and both Denver playoff runs ended with him hobbled. ESPN reports he is ready for camp. When Gordon is healthy, Denver’s starting five is as complete as any in the league. The problem has never been the quality.<\/strong>

And Detroit has a different kind of absence.Jalen Duren did not attend media day and was not expected at the start of training camp<\/strong> amid an unresolved contract dispute, having turned down $200 million<\/strong>. Detroit went from 44 wins to 60 last season on chemistry and continuity. An unhappy starting center is the one thing that profile cannot absorb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Story Nobody Will Stop Talking About<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The league’s punishment for the Kawhi Leonard saga is the heaviest in recent memory.<\/strong>

Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is suspended for a year<\/strong>, as is president of business operations Gillian Zucker. President of basketball operations Lawrence Frank is suspended six months.<\/strong> The franchise was fined $30 million and docked five first-round draft picks between now and 2033.<\/strong>

Leonard is in Toronto.<\/strong> On Saturday, his Raptors beat the Clippers 114-106 in Vancouver, in a game billed as the NBA Canada Games.

The on-court question is separate and nearly as hard.<\/strong> The Clippers now field Brandon Ingram, Darius Garland, Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus, and Brook Lopez alongside rookie Keaton Wagler. A roster assembled from other teams’ rotations, in the most unforgiving conference in basketball, with no first-round picks to trade.<\/strong>

Opening Night: Tuesday, October 20<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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