MLB: Contenders and Pretenders in the Final Stretch

Last Updated on septiembre 17, 2026 5:10 pm by Erwin Noguera

A week ago, we published an article about which MLB teams were peaking in September. We named two: Toronto and Houston.

Toronto have since gone 4-6. Houston have gone 3-7. The team we described as fading (Cleveland) now leads its division.

That is not a disclaimer. It is the entire thesis of this article. A ten-game hot streak in September tells you almost nothing, and we spent a week finding that out the expensive way. So this time the sorting is done on run differential and on the structure of the bracket, because those are the two things that survive a bad weekend.

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La temporada regular termina Sunday, September 27. Everybody has nine to eleven games left.

Where It Stands

Liga Americana

Liga Nacional

Read That Second Column Again

Three of the six American League clubs currently holding a playoff place have been outscored by their opponents this season.

Houston lead the AL West at exactly .500 with a run differential of -54. Cleveland leads the AL Central at -7. Toronto, one game under .500 at -37, still have a live wild-card claim. Texas, tied with Houston, sit at -38.

That is not how contenders look. Run differential is the least glamorous statistic in baseball and the most stubborn; over 150 games, it tells you whether a team has actually been outplaying people or merely winning close games in a weak division. Four of the teams above are doing the latter.

Compare the National League, where every club in the picture except Arizona has a positive differential, and the top four range from +111 to +200.

The two leagues are not playing the same tournament this year.

The Genuine Contenders

Milwaukee Brewers, 95-57, +200. The best record in baseball and the best run differential in baseball, by 27 runs over anybody. We have written about the Brewers three times this season and the description has not needed to change: a very good team without famous players, projected for 101 wins, with the division already settled. They are not a surprise and have not been one since June.

Los Angeles Dodgers, 92-60, +173. Back-to-back champions who added Tarik Skubal at the deadline and are projected for 98 wins. The only question worth asking about the Dodgers in October is whether anyone has enough to beat them across a short series. Milwaukee’s numbers say yes. Nobody else’s clearly do.

Tampa Bay Rays, 92-59, +71. The American League’s top seed, on an 8-2 run, winners of five straight, and still the least discussed good team in the sport. Their differential is the weakest of the four teams in this section, which is the one small caution, but they are the only AL club with both 90 wins and a bye.

New York Yankees, 88-64, +136. The most interesting team in the American League, for reasons covered below. The best run differential in the league by 54 runs, and it is going to be worth nothing to them.

Chicago Cubs, 85-68, +143. Quietly the second-best underlying team in the National League. They have scored 817 runs, more than anyone in the league, and their postseason place is effectively secure at 99.8%. They have gone 4-6 recently, and it does not matter.

Atlanta Braves, 89-64, +111. The NL East is done at 99.2%. A 4-6 fortnight has changed nothing about a team that has outscored opponents by more than a hundred runs.

The Pretenders

Houston Astros, 76-76, -54. A division leader at exactly .500 who has been outscored by 54 runs and just went 3-7. We called them a peaking team a week ago, and they immediately stopped winning. The AL West is the weakest division in baseball, and Houston are leading it on a coin flip with Texas; the projection gives them a 54.0% chance of the title and 62.5% of reaching October. They will host a playoff series if they hold on, and they have no business being favoured in one.

Texas Rangers, 76-76, -38. The same team with better recent form and a 4-game winning streak. 45.7% for the division. Marginally better underlying numbers than Houston and the identical problem: this is a .500 club that will be handed a postseason place by geography.

Cleveland Guardians, 78-75, -7. We wrote them off a week ago, and they now lead the AL Central. That was our mistake, and we will own it. But leading a division with a negative run differential is not a contender’s profile, and the projection is not fooled either: it gives Cleveland only a 44.2% chance of holding a division they currently top, behind the White Sox at 55.4%. They are the better team than we said, and still not a good one.

Toronto Blue Jays, 76-77, -37. Last week’s headline surge has become a 4-6 fortnight and a slide out of the bracket. 26.9% to reach the postseason. We said the climb was unlikely, then said we were wrong about that, and now the initial read looks closer to right, which is its own lesson about responding to ten-game samples.

Chicago White Sox, 77-75, +34. The honest case is that they belong between the two groups. Their differential is positive, they have the best division-winner projection in the Central at 55.4%, and they have only lost the lead rather than collapsed. But a 3-7 stretch for a young team leading a division for the first time is exactly the scenario we marked a fortnight ago as the risk.

Detroit Are the Best Team Not Going to October

72-80, and a run differential of +76.

That figure is better than the White Sox (+34), Cleveland (-7), Houston (-54), and Texas (-38). It is second among all American League clubs outside the East. Detroit has also gone 7-3 in their last ten.

Their postseason chance is under 1%.

There is no injustice here; 72-80 is 72-80, and they lost those games themselves, largely by going 15-27 in one-run games. But it is the sharpest illustration available of the gap between the standings and the play. The AL Central will send a team to the playoffs with worse underlying numbers than the club finishing fourth in it.

The Format Is About to Punish the Yankees

This is the structural story of the American League, and it is worth understanding before anyone bets an October series.

Byes go to the top two division winners, not the top two records. The American League’s division leaders are Tampa Bay at 92-59, Cleveland at 78-75, and Houston at 76-76.

So the New York Yankees (88 wins, plus-136, the best run differential in the league) are the fourth seed and will play a best-of-three elimination series. The winner of the AL Central, on a projected 82 wins and a negative run differential, will be rested and waiting.

Boston, at 82-70 and +82, are in the same position as the fifth seed.

Two of the three best teams in the American League have to survive a coin-flip series that two considerably worse teams get to skip. That is not a complaint about righteousness; it is the single most important fact for pricing the AL bracket. Short series are close to random, and the format is handing the randomness to the teams least deserving of it.

The One-Hot Streak With a Cushion

San Diego are 9-1 and the hottest team in baseball.

By the logic of this entire article, that should be treated as noise, and it should. The Padres’ run differential is +23, thinner than every other National League contender and barely distinguishable from Arizona’s zero.

The difference is that San Diego’s streak arrived on top of a standings cushion rather than instead of one. They sit at 83-69 and their postseason probability is 93.3%, against Arizona’s 8.0%. Three games and a fortnight of the calendar have effectively closed a race we called a coin flip last week.

The correct read is not that San Diego are suddenly good. It is that they were already in position and the hot week bought them safety. That distinction is what Toronto and Houston lacked.

Already Settled, and Already Over

Mathematically secure: Tampa Bay, the Yankees and Boston are at 100% in the American League. Milwaukee, the Dodgers and Atlanta are at 100% in the National League, with the Cubs at 99.8% and Philadelphia at 98.9%.

Eliminated or effectively so: Kansas City, the Athletics, the Angels, Cincinnati, Washington, the Mets, San Francisco and Colorado are out. Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle and St. Louis are under 1%.

Miami are 76-77 and at 0.0%: the same record as Toronto, in the wrong division.

Pittsburgh at 75-77 with a positive differential (+21) are also done, which tells you how much stronger the National League has been top to bottom.

What to Watch in the Last Ten Days

The AL Central, because a bye is attached to it. Cleveland lead by half a game with the worse underlying numbers and the better recent form; the White Sox trail with the better differential and a 3-7 slide. The winner skips a round. This is the most valuable half-game in baseball.

The AL West, for the same reason in reverse. Houston and Texas are tied at 76-76, and one of them gets a home series. Neither should be trusted in it.

Whether Arizona can manufacture one more run. At 8.0% with nine games left, they need San Diego to lose most of what remains. It is not impossible; it is not likely.

Nothing in the National League top four. Milwaukee, the Dodgers, Atlanta and the Cubs are finished with the regular season in every meaningful sense.

The contenders are Milwaukee and the Dodgers, with Tampa Bay and the Cubs behind them and the Yankees dangerous but structurally disadvantaged. The pretenders are whoever emerges from the AL Central and the AL West, because both races will be won by a team that has been outscored across six months.

And the lesson we paid for this week: when a September streak and a season-long run differential disagree, back the run differential.