Clausura 2025 Semifinals First Leg: Tigres vs. Toluca Preview

The Clausura MX semifinals are underway, and we have a great matchup between Tigres and Toluca, two teams that have struggled but managed to advance thanks to their higher seeding.

Tigres, in a controversial match with a dramatic finish, drew 2-2 with Necaxa —the same score on aggregate— and moved on due to their better position in the standings.

A similar situation occurred with Toluca, who beat Monterrey 2-1 but tied 4-4 on aggregate. However, finishing first in the regular season standings earned them a place in the next round.

Liga MX Semifinals First Leg: Tigres vs. Toluca Betting Odds and Info

¿Por qué apostar por Tigres?

This Sunday saw one of those controversies that will be recalled for a long time. Tigres was losing 1-2 at home to Necaxa and was on the verge of elimination, but in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time, Alejandro Mayorga scored an own goal to level the match.

The goal was initially disallowed for a foul on the goalkeeper, but after a seven-minute VAR review, referee Marco Antonio Ortiz ultimately awarded the goal. Sending the ‘Felinos’ through, thanks to their higher finish in the standings—they were fourth, while Necaxa was fifth.

It was a closely contested series that exposed many weaknesses in Monterrey’s squad, leaving them far from clear favorites for this semifinal and highlighting the need for central improvements in their attack.

André-Pierre Gignac has been injured all tournament long, and Nicolás Ibáñez has only scored twice. Juan Brunetta has had to carry the team on his shoulders, scoring again on Sunday.

During the regular season, Tigres was the best home team in the league, with eight wins and just one loss —a 0-1 defeat to Juárez.

¿Por qué apostar por Toluca?

Toluca didn’t have it easy either. The best team of the regular season lost the first leg against Monterrey 3-2, meaning they had to come back on the second leg at the Nemesio Diez Stadium, but things didn’t start well.

Just 21 minutes in, Brazilian player Helinho was sent off with a straight red card for a stomp, leaving Toluca to chase the comeback with a man down. But their stars stepped up —first Alexis Vega scored in the 30th minute with a brilliant individual effort to make it 1-0, and then Portuguese striker Paulinho headed in the second at the 68th minute to tie the aggregate at 4-4.

After that, it was over 20 minutes of the ‘Diablos Rojos’ holding off Monterrey’s pressure. However, they managed to survive and advance to the semifinals thanks to their better position in the standings.

Coach Antonio ‘Turco’ Mohamed will have three confirmed absences for Wednesday, although two are underperforming foreign players and the other is a backup: Helinho and Antonio Briseño are suspended (Briseño was sent off from the bench), and Pau López is out after missing the second leg due to a broken finger on his left hand.

Toluca’s three losses this season have all come on the road: against Mazatlán and América during the regular season, and against Monterrey in the quarterfinals.

Análisis final de apuestas: Tigres vs Toluca

Tigres has struggled with consistency throughout the tournament and has faced major issues on offense due to a lack of goals, as they were the lowest-scoring team among the top eight. Meanwhile, Toluca finished as the regular season leader and has several key players who have shown they can carry the team, which is why we believe they can earn a draw.

The odds at Gambyl Exchange favor Tigres, with a Moneyline of 2.22, while Toluca stands at 3.21, and a draw is also at 3.25.

The last time they met was on February 1st of this year in the current tournament, with Toluca winning 1-0 thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Paulinho. The last time they played in Monterrey, Tigres won 2-1. The ‘Felinos’ have four wins and one draw in their previous five home matches against Toluca.

Two years ago, they faced off in the quarterfinals of the Clausura MX 2023, with Tigres advancing on a 5-4 aggregate. That year, they went on to become champions.

Vaya por el empate. Si apuesta $100 a 3,25, ganará $225 para un pago total de $325.

Tigres vs. Toluca Betting Pick: Empate