Last Updated on septiembre 7, 2026 8:10 pm by Erwin Noguera
The NFL season opens on Miércoles with a Super Bowl rematch.
Seattle hosts New England on September 9, seven months after beating them 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. It is the first Wednesday opener since 2012, and it is the best possible start to a season in which the defending champions are fourth in the title odds.
We have broken down all eight divisions over the past fortnight. Here is the whole picture.
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The Predicted Playoff Field
AFC division winners
- Buffalo Bills — 12-5
- Los Angeles Chargers — 11-6
- Baltimore Ravens — 10-7
- Jacksonville Jaguars — 10-7
AFC wild cards: New England Patriots (10-7), Denver Broncos (10-7), Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
NFC division winners
- Los Angeles Rams — 12-5
- Philadelphia Eagles — 11-6
- Detroit Lions — 10-7
- New Orleans Saints — 9-8
NFC wild cards: Seattle Seahawks (11-6), San Francisco 49ers (10-7), Green Bay Packers (10-7)
Super Bowl LXI: Rams over Bills.
The Two Calls We Expect to Be Told About
The Kansas City Chiefs miss the playoffs. That is the boldest thing on this page, and we are not hiding it.
Four AFC teams land on 10-7 in our projections, and only three wild-card places exist. The Chiefs are the one we have left out for two specific reasons: Patrick Mahomes is returning from a torn ACL and LCL and did not throw a pass in the preseason, and Kansas City still has not settled its right tackle. Kahlil Benson was described as “slow-footed, unsure of himself, and completely overwhelmed” in preseason; Jaylon Moore “loses slowly.”
Andy Reid and Mahomes have a floor almost nobody else has. They also have a rebuilt knee behind an unresolved right side, and a market that made them favourites on schedule strength and regression rather than on evidence.
The Dallas Cowboys miss too. Four NFC teams reach 10-7 for three places, and Dallas is the odd one out on tiebreakers. This is uncomfortable, because we also called the Cowboys the best value bet in the NFC East at +500. Both things can be true: a team can be underpriced to win its division and still lose a coin-flip race for the last wild card.
The Markets
Super Bowl LXI odds: Carneros +500 (favourites), Bills and Ravens 10-1, Seahawks +1100. Fourteen teams sit at 20/1 or shorter, which is the widest genuine contention we have seen in years.
The defending champions are fourth. Seattle won the Lombardi in February and the market has three teams ahead of them, including the Rams, whom they beat 31-27 in the NFC Championship, and who responded by signing Myles Garrett, the Defensive Player of the Year, and trading for cornerback Trent McDuffie.
That demotion is defensible. It is also the reason Seattle at +1100 is the most interesting number on the futures board.
MVP odds: jose alen +550, Lamar Jackson +650, then Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all at +1000. Dak Prescott +1200, Jordan Love +1300, Trevor Lawrence +1400, Caleb Williams +1500.
Our MVP pick: Josh Allen. We have Buffalo at 12-5 with the best record in the AFC, and MVP follows wins and quarterback play more reliably than any other award.
Our MVP value play: Justin Herbert at +1000. We picked the Chargers to win the AFC West. If that happens, Herbert will have done it with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back in front of him, and Mike McDaniel calling plays, and a 10-1 price on the quarterback of a division winner is generous.
The Storylines That Will Define the Season
1. Can Seattle repeat?
Sam Darnold threw three touchdowns in the NFC Championship. Kenneth Walker III produced 111 total yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught ten passes for 153 yards. Mike Macdonald’s defence made the fourth-down stop that ended the Rams’ season. That is a complete team.
They also had the quietest offseason of the contenders, while the team they beat added the best defensive player in football. Repeating is the hardest thing in the sport, and Seattle opens against the team they beat in the final.
2. Mahomes’s knee and Kansas City’s right tackle.
The single most consequential injury question in the league. If Josh Simmons’s back keeps him out, Mahomes’s blindside could be protected by an undrafted rookie who played only right tackle in college.
3. Micah Parsons misses September.
Green Bay placed him on Reserve/PUP, ruling him out for at least four games while he recovers from a torn ACL and meniscus damage. He misses Minnesota, the Jets, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay, and has pointed to Week 6 against Dallas (his former team) as an optimistic return.
The Packers’ ceiling is among the highest in the NFC, and it does not exist until October.
4. Aaron Rodgers, 42, with no preseason snaps.
Mike McCarthy said repeatedly he wanted Rodgers on the field and then rested him twice, including through a 17-0 shutout. Pittsburgh opens with a quarterback who has not thrown a competitive pass since January, behind a rookie right tackle, having traded Broderick Jones to Dallas in September.
5. The NFL’s record international slate.
Nine games across four continents, seven countries and eight stadiums: the most ever. It starts immediately: Rams versus 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, the first NFL regular-season game in Australia, in front of an expected sell-out at a 100,000-capacity venue.
A divisional game, decided under conditions neither team has played in, in Week 1. The tiebreakers may look very different in January because of it.
6. Three franchises started completely over.
Miami released Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, traded Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick, fired Mike McDaniel and opens with a 3.5-win total and the second-hardest schedule in football. Arizona fired Jonathan Gannon after 3-14, hired Mike LaFleur and released Kyler Murray, who now starts for Minnesota. Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams.
None of them will win much. All three will tell us something about how a modern rebuild is supposed to work.
7. The quarterback carousel nobody can explain.
Atlanta carried four quarterbacks into September without naming a Week 1 starter. Minnesota’s JJ McCarthy, a former first-round pick, sits third on the depth chart behind Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz, kept largely because $21.85 million is fully guaranteed. Jalen Hurts is learning his fifth offensive system in five years. Tampa Bay gave its backup job to an undrafted rookie and released the veteran signed to do it.
The Positions We Like
Seattle +1100 to win Super Bowl LXI. The defending champions, fourth in the odds, in a league where fourteen teams are 20/1 or better. They beat the current favourite in that same building eight months ago.
Denver to win the AFC West at +210 or better. They won the division last season by multiple games and went 5-1 within it, and the market has them third.
Dallas to win the NFC East at +500. At least one projection rates them level with Philadelphia at 12-5. The market prices the Eagles at roughly 46% and the Cowboys at 17%.
New Orleans to win the NFC South at +265. The easiest schedule in the league in a division where nine wins probably takes it.
Fade Baltimore over 11.5 wins. Their total sits more than two games above the model projection of 9.3, on a team with a first-year head coach.
Justin Herbert +1000 for MVP. Covered above.
Semana 1
Wednesday 9 September — Patriots at Seahawks. The Super Bowl rematch, and the first Wednesday opener in fourteen years.
Thursday 10 September — Rams vs 49ers, Melbourne. History and a divisional game that counts double.
Sunday night — Cowboys at Giants. John Harbaugh’s first regular-season game in New York against the team we think is the best value in his division.
Monday night — Broncos at Chiefs. The single most informative game of the week. Mahomes’s first competitive football since knee surgery, against the team we have picked to finish above.
Four days, four genuine referendums on the calls above. By next Tuesday we will know which of them are already in trouble.
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