2025 US Open Finals Preview and Free Pick

Last Updated on septiembre 6, 2025 10:50 am by Erwin Noguera

The 2025 US Open is coming to a close with a dream scenario for men’s tennis: the battle for the trophy will be between the two best players in the world, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Both arrive not only as the stars of the season but as true generational rivals who have elevated each matchup to a new dimension. Arthur Ashe Stadium will witness a clash that, in addition to determining the champion of the last Grand Slam of the year, will crown the world’s number one player.

The road to this final has reinforced the narrative of historic rivalry. Alcaraz, ranked number two, eliminated Novak Djokovic in the semifinals with authority, confirming what many interpret as a generational shift. Sinner, the current ATP leader, defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime in four sets, consolidating an impeccable season in which he has reached the finals of all the majors played.

Both have already exchanged victories in the biggest stages: Alcaraz dominated at Roland Garros, while Sinner took revenge at Wimbledon. Now, New York offers a tiebreaker in which neither wants to give in.

The historical context is undeniable. It will be the third consecutive Grand Slam final between Sinner and Alcaraz, a feat that has not occurred since 1964, when Roy Emerson and Fred Stolle faced each other in three finals in the same year.

Furthermore, for the first time since the ATP rankings were created in 1973, the top two players are competing in the four major finals in the same season. This duel transcends the immediate: not only is the title at stake, but also the consolidation of a rivalry that could define the next decade of tennis.

2025 US Open Finals Betting Odds and Info

Why Bet on Jannik Sinner?

Jannik Sinner comes into this final with the aura of an established champion. The Italian is not only the world number one, but also the defending champion in New York. That status as reigning champion gives him a psychological edge, as he already knows what it takes to succeed at the US Open. His competitive maturity, enhanced by 65 consecutive weeks at the top of the rankings, makes him a player accustomed to the pressure of the big stage.

One of Sinner’s strengths is his consistency throughout long matches. His semifinal victory over Auger-Aliassime showed that he can overcome difficult moments and adjust his game plan effectively.

In addition, he is one of the most physically prepared players on the circuit: he can maintain the same intensity for hours, which is a decisive factor in best-of-five-set matches. This endurance has even been highlighted by Alcaraz, who acknowledged that the Italian has become a virtually unbeatable opponent in the physical department.

Another strong argument in Sinner’s favor is his record in recent finals. This will be his fifth consecutive Grand Slam final, a streak that puts him in the same conversation as legends of tenis: Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal.

Furthermore, having beaten Alcaraz at Wimbledon gives him additional confidence: he knows how to counter the Spaniard’s aggressiveness and how to impose his power from the back of the court. If he manages to set the pace from the first set and force long rallies, his favoritism will be reinforced.

Why Bet on Carlos Alcaraz?

Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, comes into this final with a different aura: that of an explosive competitor, capable of reinventing matches with his natural talent and insatiable hunger. His victory over Djokovic in the semifinals, in straight sets, was a show of authority that confirms he is reaching his best form at just the right moment.

Although he himself has admitted that he has not yet shown his full potential at this US Open, that statement is more of a warning than a weakness: it means that he can still raise his level in the final.

The Spaniard can surprise on big points in his favor. His repertoire of shots is probably the most varied on the circuit: he combines power with subtle touches, and alternates between defense and attack in a matter of seconds. In matches against Sinner, that versatility has been key. Let’s not forget that at Roland Garros he managed to prevail in an epic five-set duel, proving that he can withstand the Italian’s pace and, at the same time, take advantage of decisive moments with greater aggression.

Another factor in Alcaraz’s favor is the narrative of revenge. At Wimbledon, Sinner beat him, but Alcaraz is a player who learns quickly from defeat. His competitive hunger and the extra motivation of seeking the title at Flushing Meadows, a tournament he already won in 2022, make him a major threat.

Final Betting Analysis US Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

The 2025 US Open final has all the ingredients to become an instant classic. Two players at the top of the rankings, a balanced head-to-head record, and a historical context that adds special weight to every point.

Sinner arrives with the confidence of consistency and endurance, while Alcaraz brings the spark of unpredictable talent and a hunger for revenge. The duel will not only determine the champion in New York, but also the best in the world at this moment.

Los numeros en Gambyl Exchange have Jannik Sinner as the favorite, with the Moneyline set at -133. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz is at -104.

The key will be who manages to impose their style. If Sinner manages to keep the rallies long and wear down the Spaniard, he will have the advantage. However, if Alcaraz manages to shorten the points and generate pressure with his variety of resources, including his characteristic net approaches and drop shots, he could tip the balance in his favor. The margin is minimal, and any detail can make the difference, from emotional management to effectiveness in tiebreaks.

Go for a win for Jannik Sinner. If you bet $100 at -133, you will gain $75.19 for a total payout of $175.19.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Betting Pick: Jannik Sinner