UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on octubre 23, 2025 12:50 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC is heading to Abu Dhabi, and excitement is in the air for this highly anticipated event. This fight, which should have happened years ago, promises to be one of the most thrilling heavyweight contests we’ve seen, as both fighters are currently in their prime—strong, fast, and highly technical.

In the main event, Tom Aspinall will defend his title against the dangerous Cytil Gane. This matchup is expected to be one of the highest-level clashes in the heavyweight division to date, and we can’t wait to see it unfold.

The co-main event features Vima Jandiroba seeking redemption against Mackenzie Dern in a fight for the Vacant Strawweight Championship belt.

Additionally, Umar Nurmagomedov returns to the Octagon to face Mario Bautista after his title challenge attempt, making this bantamweight bout particularly intriguing.

Overall, we have 14 fights scheduled for what is shaping up to be an exceptional night of matchmaking. Despite one outlier on the card, the unique timing of the event in Abu Dhabi will make it even more enjoyable, as we’ll be watching the main fights alongside a late breakfast.

En Gambyl Exchange, puedes consultar todos los UFC/MMA , el análisis de cada luchador y la apuesta final que puedes realizar en estos combates.

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Fight Card Odds and Picks

UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

¿Por qué apostar por Tom Aspinall?

Aspinall is one of the most intriguing heavyweights since the rise of Francis Ngannou, and we hope to see more from Aspinall than we did from Ngannou. He has rarely left the first round, with most of his fights being dominant performances. The key to his success is his speed rather than his power; he is one of the fastest strikers in the division, alongside his opponent, Ciryl Gane. Fans can expect to see some chaotic but brilliant moments in the cage.

Given Aspinall’s tendency to finish fights in the first round (with a notable second-round submission against Arlovski), there are questions about his cardio and whether he can go the full distance of 3 to 5 rounds. However, we believe Aspinall will feel comfortable for about 3.5 rounds.

While we expect Aspinall to employ wrestling in his strategy, we’ve noticed that Gane has brought in a world-class wrestler to bolster his takedown defense. Whether this will be enough to counter Aspinall’s dangerous catch wrestling remains to be seen. In wrestling exchanges, we can expect either Gane to survive and thrive or to be overwhelmed.

Why Bet on Cyril Gane?

Gane has consistently been a standout fighter in the heavyweight division, and his rise to the top has been impressive to witness. His trademark qualities are speed and volume. Gane doesn’t rely solely on heavy hits; instead, he’s a “slow cooker,” landing volume strikes to gauge his opponent’s reactions and set up heavier shots that could potentially end the fight.

Gane will likely land more leg and body strikes than head strikes, especially early on. While Aspinall usually aims for the head, Gane takes a more methodical approach, breaking down his opponent’s foundation before aiming for their key defenses.

Final Betting Analysis: Tom Aspinall vs. Cyril Gane

This fight is unique, and unique matchups can be quite challenging to predict, which makes analyzing this bout even more exciting. We have been big fans of Gane in recent years, but we do have concerns about his recent distractions, such as his involvement in movies, which could hinder his preparation for this fight. Although we believe he will come into this bout with a mindset focused on achieving greatness, there are a few concerns compared to Aspinall.

UFC 321: Vima Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

Why Bet on Vima Jandiroba?

Jandiroba is coming off a fairly decent streak of victories against solid competitors, and the one thing we have seen consistently from Jandiroba during this streak is her ability to fight well on both the feet and on the ground.

Jandiroba obviously is going to want to either keep the fight standing and contend with the improved boxing of Dern, or she’sgoing to take the fight to the mat and control Dern, which she is more than able to do.

The main concern for Jandiroba here is her inability to throw in large volumes, which may be a strong deterrent for Dern, and that’s going to be something repeated by the commentary team during this fight because being an active striker with good takedown defense (which Jandiroba has) is pivotal in defeating Dern, but if we haven’t seen Jandiroba throw more than 50 strikes in most of her fights, we cannot see a clear path to victory for her unless it becomes a gritty wrestling match where both fighters vie for top control.

¿Por qué apostar por Mackenzie Dern?

We have some slight trepidations concerning Dern; she doesn’t quite have the MMA experience or skill set that Jandiroba has, but both fighters are quite equal as a whole becausethey’re both from a BJJ background and both have worked on their striking to adapt to the MMA ruleset and style.

If she does expel her energy early and gas out in the sandwiched rounds (3 or 4 to be specific), we do think that Jandiroba could turn this fight around to her advantage, so for Dern to win, she needs to be the one to keep Jandiroba on the back pedal, and she did achieve that during their first fight 5 years ago.

Final Betting Analysis: Vima Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

There is the potential for a KO win for Dern here, since Dern is the heavier-hitting fighter; she likes to throw with disgusting intent regardless of how pretty that is.

However, one recurring theme from watching Dern’s boxing is that she doesn’t have disciplined movement; it’s still very iffy, she’s still someone who brings her chin high as she charges forward, and if Jandiroba has figured out a counter for that, then Dern’s going to be in trouble.

UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

¿Por qué apostar por Umar Nurmagomedov?

Nurmagomedov is likely to have a relatively “easy” time against Bautista, and while that may seem disrespectful to Bautista, several factors support this outlook. First, Nurmagomedov came very close to defeating Dvalishvili in an intensely competitive five-round fight. If he could go toe-to-toe with Dvalishvili for 25 minutes, Bautista should not pose much of a challenge.

Nurmagomedov also possesses superior wrestling skills compared to Bautista. Even if he doesn’t secure takedowns as easily as desired, he is expected to outwork Bautista in grappling exchanges. This aspect will be especially crucial, particularly since the fight takes place in Abu Dhabi.

¿Por qué apostar por Mario Bautista?

Bautista is coming off a decent victory over Patchy Mix. However, moving from someone like Mix, who has a poor striking stance and defense, to facing a highly skilled opponent like Nurmagomedov is a significant step up. It’s akin to taking an elevator to the top floor of a skyscraper.

Bautista will likely attempt to out-volume Nurmagomedov or appear more active in the fight, perhaps looking to time a counter as Nurmagomedov approaches for a takedown. However, he may need to fight somewhat uncharacteristically to secure a win, as he faces one of the toughest challenges of his career.

Final Betting Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

In terms of striking, Bautista could be a formidable opponent for Nurmagomedov. However, regardless of how “poorly” he may perform on the feet, Nurmagomedov’s forward movement and high-paced wrestling are expected to be the primary factors leading to his potential victory.

Throughout the fight, expect Bautista to be on the back foot. Nevertheless, it is also likely that the competition will be more intense than the odds suggest.

UFC 321: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

¿Por qué apostar por Alexander Volkov?

Volkov is likely to excel in this fight as long as it remains standing, given his clean and technical striking. However, his takedown defense will be put to the test against Jailton Almeida.

Volkov needs to keep the fight standing by using effective striking techniques, such as uppercuts and teeps, while maintaining lateral movement. This approach will compel Almeida to chase him down, potentially leading to desperate takedown attempts.

¿Por qué apostar por Jailton Almeida?

Almeida currently has a reputation as a formidable competitor in the division, primarily due to his unique wrestling and grappling style. We expect him to display this style throughout the fight, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we could quickly fill out a bingo card with the various techniques he might employ.

However, a major concern for Almeida is his striking defense. He tends to be vulnerable and doesn’t have the striking skills to make this fight competitive on the feet. To succeed in this division, a fighter must be well-rounded, but Almeida seems to be leaning more towards one-dimensional tactics at this point.

Final Betting Analysis: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

Volkov has the opportunity to test Almeida’s chin, as his striking defense is questionable. We believe Volkov could have significant success in challenging Almeida’s durability. On the other hand, Almeida will need to make a plan to take Volkov to the ground. We doubt that pure strength and explosiveness will be sufficient; he may need to rely on trips and ground control. If not, Volkov is well-known for his ability to get back up from the mat.

UFC 321: Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov

¿Por qué apostar por Aleksandar Rakić?

Rakić is currently on a losing streak and is facing an undefeated opponent. Although this is just a ranking fight, it seems like Rakić is being tested heavily. He is not a bad fighter; he possesses decent boxing skills along with incredible speed and power in his strikes. However, he is known to have a weak chin and is vulnerable to getting hurt.

Rakić is significantly taller and longer than Murzakanov, which is an advantage, but it’s important to note that Murzakanov has dealt with taller opponents throughout his career. From his kickboxing days to now, he has consistently faced taller fighters, giving him the skill set and experience to navigate this height disadvantage.

¿Por qué apostar por Azamat Murzakanov?

Murzakanov is likely a bit quicker with his strikes. His punches are thrown with such incredible speed that opponents often struggle to raise their guard in time to defend themselves.

The concern with Murzakanov is whether he can effectively get past Rakić’s reach and avoid being hit from a distance. While it’s true that Rakić can inflict damage, once Murzakanov gets within striking range and lands a combination, Rakić could find himself in serious trouble.

Final Betting Analysis: Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov

As soon as Murzakanov gets within striking distance, Rakić will likely adopt a defensive stance and attempt to regain distance to use his long-range attacks. If the first round is intense, Murzakanov may not perform as well in the second and third rounds. Overall, expect Murzakanov’s hand speed to be impressive, while Rakić will be able to find success at jabbing range.

UFC 321: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld

¿Por qué apostar por Nasrat Haqparast?

Haqparast being near even odds against Salkilld is a great opportunity. He possesses exceptional boxing skills and demonstrates solid timing with his strikes. He is selective in his approach and has effectively navigated the challenges throughout his career. In terms of wrestling defense, he is proficient enough to keep the fight standing for the majority of the time. He is also intelligent enough to anticipate takedowns, boasting an impressive 84% takedown defense rate over 14 fights.

¿Por qué apostar por Quillan Salkilld?

Salkilld’s victory over Anshul Jubli was a clear mismatch, as Jubli is not particularly skilled, and his win against Ashmouz is difficult to evaluate due to Ashmouz’s unknown potential. Nevertheless, Salkilld does have a physical advantage. If he plays smart and utilizes his jab to focus on point fighting against Haqparast, he has the potential to secure a win on the scorecards. However, we believe that Haqparast will likely turn this into a gritty fight, resulting in both fighters competing at a high intensity on short notice.

Final Betting Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld

While Salkilld has knockout power that could pose a threat to Haqparast, it mainly comes from his right side, as he likes to throw straight punches down the middle.

Should that right hand connect with Haqparast, it could cause significant damage. However, if Haqparast can bait Salkilld into using that right hand and effectively counter it, he should emerge victorious in this matchup.

UFC 321: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park

¿Por qué apostar por Ikram Aliskerov?

Aliskerov is coming off a strong victory over Andre Muniz, where he effectively exploited Muniz’s vulnerabilities and returned to the win column. He is a well-rounded fighter typical of Dagestani athletes, boasting decent boxing and kicking skills, alongside excellent wrestling. This combination is generally sufficient to defeat someone like Park, who tends to struggle against skilled strikers and can be outworked by competent wrestlers.

¿Por qué apostar en Jun Yong Park?

Park is usually our go-to pick in his fights, but in this matchup, it’s challenging to back him. He often finds himself in close bouts or reveals significant gaps in his performance, yet manages to pull off decision wins by sheer determination. However, we don’t anticipate him winning this fight through grit alone. His habit of circling along the edge of the cage may work against him, allowing Aliskerov to land strikes with ease and effectively threaten takedowns, utilizing the cage to secure advantageous positions.

Final Betting Analysis: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park

We expect Aliskerov to maintain heavy activity throughout the fight, setting the pace and ultimately overwhelming Park to the point where he cannot catch up on the scorecards. While Park does present a unique challenge for Aliskerov, we are concerned about his tendency to have his back against the cage and being outmatched on the feet.

UFC 321: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Ľudovít Klein

¿Por qué apostar por Mateusz Rębecki?

Rębecki has been a difficult fighter to watch. His clash with Chris Duncan raised our expectations for him, but those hopes faded quickly as Reębecki absorbed significant damage from Duncan’s strikes. He is now facing another formidable opponent known for dealing damage.

Rębecki typically wins by bulldozing his way into a wrestling position, using his considerable strength to overpower his opponents without a strong focus on defense. His defensive skills are a major concern heading into this fight.

¿Por qué apostar por Ľudovít Klein?

Klein has faced a variety of up-and-coming fighters in the division and has generally achieved impressive victories. His primary strategy involves setting up head kicks, which could be particularly effective against Reębecki, who tends to maintain a low stance. A head kick could land perfectly, whether delivered as a roundhouse or straight through Reębecki’s wide guard, which he uses while rushing forward to land heavy strikes followed by takedowns.

Although Reębecki can attempt to absorb head kicks with a raised guard, this will limit his hand explosiveness and may force him to reconsider his approach.

Final Betting Analysis: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Ľudovít Klein

Rębecki’s reach disadvantage poses a significant challenge, especially given Klein’s excellent takedown defense and sound defensive skills at range. Klein can maintain distance with jabs and kicks, minimizing the risk of unnecessary exchanges in close quarters. As a result, we anticipate that Reębecki will have to take considerable risks to achieve his objectives, which won’t be easy against an opponent as well-rounded as Klein.

Klein has experience in these situations; he is known as the “prospect killer” of the division. We expect him to deliver clean striking, effective head kicks, and exceptional defense throughout the fight.

UFC 321: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo

¿Por qué apostar por Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady?

Al-Selwady is coming off a KO loss to Radzhabov in the second round over a year and a half ago. This long layoff raises concerns about whether he has been inactive or is dealing with other issues. In that fight, Al-Selwady did not look good at all. He threw heavy punches and attempted to be aggressive early on, but he failed to maintain a reasonable pace in the second round. As a lightweight, this indicates potential chronic cardio problems that he needs to address, especially since he will face very dangerous opponents in the UFC’s most competitive weight class. If these issues persist, he may struggle significantly in the later rounds.

¿Por qué apostar por Matheus Camilo?

Camilo is coming off a tough loss to Gabe Green, where he was submitted in the second round. However, he showed promise in the first round, landing solid body shots and demonstrating fluidity on his feet while maintaining a patient approach. That said, being too patient against Al-Selwady may not be the best strategy, given his chaotic fighting style. If Camilo can keep the fight standing, his chances of winning improve, provided he avoids Al-Selwady’s powerful overhand right.

Final Betting Analysis: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo

Al-Selwady’s key to victory lies in his takedown offense. If he fails to bring the fight to the ground, he might expend all his energy in the first round without success. However, once he does manage to take the fight to the mat, he will have significant advantages against Camilo, who struggles in grappling exchanges. Camilo is the better striker, and we anticipate he will land several body shots while Al-Selwady fights aggressively in the first round. Ultimately, we expect Al-Selwady to gain control as the fight progresses.

UFC 321: Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland

¿Por qué apostar por Valter Walker?

Walker has a consistent fighting style that can almost be predicted. First, he will seize control of the center of the cage, giving him an advantage in pressuring his opponent against the fence. This positioning allows him to execute takedowns with his characteristic grit and power.

Next, Walker will likely deliver significant ground and pound, creating a challenging environment for his opponents. Finally, he may either go for his infamous leg submission, attempting to break a limb, or continue to pursue a finish with relentless ground and pound.

Why Bet on Louie Sutherland?

In this matchup, Sutherland is expected to adopt a defensive strategy. He might attempt a guillotine choke, but it’s uncertain whether he can withstand the overwhelming force and explosiveness that Walker brings to the fight. While Walker is not known as a great striker, he possesses speed and power that give him an edge over Sutherland.

Additionally, it’s important to note that Sutherland is facing another weight cut, and we cannot predict how this will affect his performance.This could create a challenging situation for him during the fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland

Considering the current circumstances surrounding both fighters, it seems highly likely that Valter Walker will emerge victorious in this bout, most likely achieving a submission in the first round.

UFC 321: Jose Delgado vs. Nathaniel Wood

¿Por qué apostar por José Delgado?

Delgado is a fighter known for finishing bouts quickly, often leaving little to describe. He rose to prominence through the DWCS series, where he secured a swift knockout victory. Since then, he has achieved consecutive knockout wins against opponents Matthews and Hyder Amil. Delgado’s fighting style is heavily focused on securing knockouts, and he employs a specific pattern to achieve them. Every time he switches stances, he starts his combination sequences with his power hand, regardless of whether he is in an orthodox or southpaw stance. This approach provides him with additional angles and unpredictability during his attacks.

¿Por qué apostar por Nathaniel Wood?

Wood is among the most skilled British fighters to compete in the UFC. He has faced formidable opponents like Morgan Charriere, Casey Kenney, and Andre Fili. With only three losses in his UFC career, his victories against those three fighters are particularly impressive. Wood is incredibly well-rounded; he fights intelligently and with grit, preferring to strike at a measured pace while remaining defensively sound. He avoids unnecessary brawls but can adapt to become an aggressive fighter when pushed into chaotic situations, showcasing an impressive ability to meet his opponents’ intensity.

Final Betting Analysis: Jose Delgado vs. Nathaniel Wood

Delgado is a dynamic and dangerous striker. However, if opponents can neutralize his power with wrestling techniques or by effectively timing his stance changes, they can diminish his effectiveness. We anticipate that Delgado will be explosive and intimidating from the outset, especially in the first round and into the middle of the second. There are two potential scenarios: Wood could be knocked out in the first round due to Delgado’s aggressive start, or he might defend well enough to weather the early storm, allowing Delgado to expend his energy. If this occurs, Wood could activate his “killer instinct” in the second half of the fight and turn the bout in his favor.

Our prediction leans toward the latter scenario, giving the win to Wood.

UFC 321: Chris Barnett vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

¿Por qué apostar por Chris Barnett?

Barnett is an energetic fighter who carries a lot of weight, but he can be somewhat unpredictable outside of his impressive knockouts. He is more of a star than a fighter. He has decent knockout power and has demonstrated enough athleticism to secure flashy finishes. However, as an MMA fighter, he’s somewhat underwhelming, and Abdelwahab could easily be viewed as the favorite, provided he actually uses his wrestling skills.

¿Por qué apostar por Hamdy Abdelwahab?

In our opinion, Abdelwahab has been one of the most disappointing heavyweights in recent memory. If he wins, it’s often overshadowed by a positive drug test; if he loses, it’s usually due to his failure to wrestle. When he does wrestle, he showcases his Olympic-level wrestling skills and is quite effective on the ground, delivering damage when the fight hits the mat. Nonetheless, Hamdy has been underwhelming overall and doesn’t seem like an appealing favorite.

Final Betting Analysis: Chris Barnett vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

Barnett’s most significant disadvantage in this matchup is his inability to defend against takedowns, which plays directly into Hamdy’s strengths, assuming he decides to wrestle. We expect him to utilize his wrestling, but given his past performances, we have our reservations about whether he will commit to that strategy.

UFC 321: Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo

¿Por qué apostar por Azat Maksum?

Maksum is coming off two consecutive losses to Johnson and Ulanbekov, but gaining 30 minutes of experience against such high-level fighters is invaluable in the world of MMA. Throughout much of his career, Maksum has been aggressive, often charging into his opponents’ range and dragging them into deep waters from start to finish. His wrestling style is high-paced, leaving his opponents with little room to breathe or fight back, as he consistently stays several steps ahead in terms of positional advancement. We anticipate that Maksum will maintain this approach in his upcoming fight.

¿Por qué apostar por Mitch Raposo?

Raposo is also dealing with back-to-back disappointing results, having lost by split decision to both Andre Lima and Sumudaerji. He typically employs a heavy wrestling style, and in this fight, he needs to focus on outpacing Maksum, as he certainly does not want to spend the majority of the match defending against takedowns. While Raposo’s shorter height may assist him in blocking some of Maksum’s takedown attempts, he will likely find himself on the defensive due to Maksum’s relentless chain wrestling. Eventually, despite his efforts, Raposo’s back is likely to hit the ground, forcing him to scramble for a defensible position quickly.

Final Betting Analysis: Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo

We expect Maksum, with his 6-inch reach advantage, to comfortably surpass Raposo, whether on the feet or on the ground. It’s challenging to envision how Raposo will score points against such a well-rounded opponent, especially given his smaller stature. For the most part, Raposo will find himself on the defensive—not by choice, but because that’s how Maksum fights. Maksum is an all-action, in-your-face fighter, making it difficult to counter his aggressive style.

UFC 321: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

¿Por qué apostar por Jaqueline Amorim?

Amorim is coming off a series of impressive victories against notable opponents, including Polyana Viana and Vanessa Demopoulos. While many of her other opponents may not be particularly notable, those two wins stand out. We fully expect Amorim to approach this fight in her typical style, which is primarily focused on taking the fight to the ground quickly and neutralizing Inoue’s striking abilities.

¿Por qué apostar por Mizuki Inoue?

Inoue has been relatively inactive throughout her career in the UFC. Her first and only victory in the organization was six years ago against Yanan Wu, and since then, she has only had two additional fights. Although she is coming off a win against Hannah Goldy, defeating Goldy is akin to beating a tutorial boss in a video game—almost anyone can do it. Therefore, we don’t consider that win to be significant. However, Inoue did demonstrate decent takedown defense, which could be a factor in her fight against Amorim, despite her overall inactivity.

Final Betting Analysis: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

We believe that Inoue will likely be exposed on the ground if she attempts to keep the fight standing, potentially leaving her neck or limbs vulnerable to submission attempts. Amorim’s performance has been quite consistent, and she possesses a reach advantage that may aid her in controlling and countering Inoue’s wrestling. Additionally, Amorim has proven to be formidable on the ground in her recent fights. She is a difficult opponent for anyone in that setting, and we expect her to demonstrate that once again in this matchup.

Aspinall vs. Gane Pronóstico de apuestas: Tom Aspinall

Jandiroba vs. Dern Pronóstico de apuestas: Virna Jandiroba

Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Pronóstico de apuestas: Umar Nurmagomédov

Volkov vs. Almeida Pronóstico de apuestas: Jailton Almeida

Rakić vs. Murzakanov Pronóstico de apuestas: Azamat Murzakanov

Haqparast vs. Salkilld Pronóstico de apuestas: Nasrat Haqparast

Aliskerov vs. Park Pronóstico de apuestas: Aliskerov

Rębecki vs. Klein Pronóstico de apuestas: Ludovit Klein

Al-Selwady vs. Camilo Pronóstico de apuestas: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Walker vs. Sutherland Pronóstico de apuestas: Valter Walker

Delgado vs. Wood Pronóstico de apuestas: nathaniel madera

Barnett vs. Abdelwahab Pronóstico de apuestas: Hamdy Abdelwahab

Maksum vs. Raposo Pronóstico de apuestas: Azat Maksum

Amorim vs. Inoue Pronóstico de apuestas: Jaqueline Amorim