UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on septiembre 25, 2025 1:47 pm by Erwin Noguera

The UFC is heading to the RAC Arena in Western Australia for an exciting event, with the card featuring a mix of local favorites and international veterans.

In the main event, we will see Carlos Ulberg take on the dangerous Dominick Reyes in the Light Heavyweight division. This matchup promises to be an entertaining showdown.

The co-main event will feature Jimmy Crute going up against Ivan Erslan, also in the Light Heavyweight division. Both fighters are looking to climb the rankings and potentially face the winner of the main event in the near future.

This is a significant night for the Australian crowd, as there will be an Australian fighter in 13 out of 14 fights on the card.

En Gambyl Exchange, puedes consultar todos los UFC/MMA bets, the analysis of each fighter, and the final bet you can make in these fight

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Fight Card Odds and Picks – Información

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes

¿Por qué apostar por Carlos Ulberg?

Ulberg has made an impressive comeback in his career since his first loss to Nzechukwu in 2021, achieving significant victories in recent fights against Menifield, Oezdemir, and Blachowicz.

We believe Ulberg will win this fight, not because Reyes is a bad fighter—far from it—but because Ulberg’s speed and athleticism are exceptional. While his striking defense can sometimes be questionable, his mobility and agility will be crucial for his success in the match, allowing him to move around the cage effortlessly.

Ulberg is tall and competes effectively at both long range and in close quarters. He has also developed as a fighter, becoming more strategic with his distance management. We expect Reyes to try to pressure Ulberg and find the range where he can effectively engage in striking.

¿Por qué apostar por Dominick Reyes?

Reyes is entering this fight with three consecutive finishes against fighters who were quite vulnerable in terms of taking hits: Krylov, Smith, and Jacoby. These victories seem to have made him mentally stronger and more confident. Given that he is still relatively young, he has a pathway to a championship fight, provided he can get past the challenging opponent, Ulberg.

In his last three matches, Reyes’ opponents landed a total of only 30 strikes on him. While this might seem impressive to some, it raises a few concerns for me. It suggests that no one has truly tested Reyes’ chin—the same chin that was damaged by Spann, Prochazka, and Blachowicz just a couple of years ago.

We are curious to see if Ulberg’s precise jabs and straight punches will increase Reyes’ strike absorption and reveal just how resilient his chin really is. However, Reyes is much more physical and aggressive with his strikes than Ulberg. If Reyes comes out strong early in the fight and disrupts Ulberg’s ability to respond effectively, we might witness an upset.

Final Betting Analysis: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes

Ulberg has a slight advantage in defensive capabilities compared to Reyes. Since Reyes is likely to press forward and throw powerful punches, this allows Ulberg to circle, utilize his back foot for balance, and then launch quick flurries to break through Reyes’ defenses and test his chin.

However, if Ulberg finds himself backed against the fence, it becomes a crucial moment where Reyes can strike and potentially deliver a knockout punch. Still, we believe Ulberg will secure the victory by employing a smart strategy.

UFC Fight Night: Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan

¿Por qué apostar por Jimmy Crute?

Crute is coming off a strong victory against Prachnio, which he achieved by fighting strategically. He effectively took the fight to the ground, using his top control to inflict damage and seek submissions.

Whenever Crute is in a position of top control, he is effectively winning the fight. This seems to be a crucial factor in his success: without that top control, he tends to struggle on his feet due to somewhat shaky striking defense.

Fortunately for Crute, his upcoming opponent has been taken down multiple times in his two UFC fights, and we don’t expect to see significant improvements from Erslan in this area. Therefore, the path to victory for Crute looks promising.

¿Por qué apostar por Ivan Erslan?

Erslan is 0-2 in the UFC, having lost to Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba. He remains relatively unproven, making it difficult to form a solid opinion about his abilities. While his striking is somewhat decent and he possesses power, he can secure a victory if he keeps the fight standing and targets Crute’s vulnerabilities. However, if Crute manages to close the distance and execute takedowns, it could spell trouble for Erslan.

There is a possibility that Crute’s tendency to be outstruck may come in play, especially if Erslan’s takedown defense has improved significantly. It’s worth noting that in his last fight against Stirling, Erslan was not facing a traditional wrestler; the takedowns Stirling delivered were unexpected, and Erslan was likely focused on defending against strikes rather than grappling.

Final Betting Analysis: Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan

If Crute gets that takedown early in the first round, it’s over for Erslan. Even if he can get back up, Crute will know that the takedowns are there.

Erslan knows what to expect and could show some resistance with the takedowns and possibly keep the fight standing, but 4 months may not be enough improvement to make the difference.

We think Crute will make it an easy fight for himself.

UFC Fight Night: Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras

¿Por qué apostar por Jack Jenkins?

Jenkins is coming off a tough loss against Gabriel Santos, during which he was effectively outgrappled and fell victim to a rear-naked choke. However, we believe that grappling or submission attempts will not hinder Jenkins’ success in this upcoming fight. On paper, this match looks like a barn burner, and that’s precisely where Jenkins excels.

Primarily a striker, Jenkins possesses decent boxing skills and is quick on his feet. One aspect that everyone frequently mentions about Jenkins is his devastating leg kicks, which often remind fans of Edson Barboza. While it’s true that his leg kicks are formidable, Jenkins is also a varied striker capable of presenting Taveras with numerous challenges. This is particularly important since Taveras is known for his toughness, which can be a disadvantage for him in this matchup.

¿Por qué apostar por Ramón Taveras?

Taveras tends to be an easy target during his fights. Although he has one significant victory over Serhiy Sidey, his tendency to take hits raises concerns about his performance. Ramon Taveras should be able to capitalize on moments of chaos, as he prefers a gritty and violent style of fighting. However, Jenkins possesses the speed and power that could create a tough challenge for Taveras.

Final Betting Analysis: Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras

Taveras is likely to dominate the striking statistics if Jenkins hesitates before taking action. Jenkins needs to fight in bursts to disrupt the timing of Taveras’s counters and retaliations. However, it’s uncertain how effective this strategy will be, especially since Taveras tends to fight like a wrecking ball and brings a chaotic element to the match. We believe Jenkins will manage to overpower his opponent by the second half of the fight.

UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny

¿Por qué apostar por Jake Matthews?

Matthews is coming off a series of victories, including a recent win against Chidi Njokuani, where we witnessed a very nasty choke. Although Matthews has a shorter reach, this shouldn’t significantly impact his strategy since Magny doesn’t utilize his length effectively enough to require major adjustments from Matthews.

Matthews has solid boxing skills, particularly when he’s on the offensive, and he can apply pressure whenever he chooses. Given Magny’s tendency to struggle when struck, we believe Matthews will confidently move forward and take on the role of the more aggressive fighter in this match.

¿Por qué apostar por Neil Magny?

Magny is coming off another finish victory, and it’s a somewhat similar story to his win against Malott, where his opponent’s gas tank dropped drastically, allowing Magny to take control. This is essentially how he wins his fights.

He has fantastic cardio and is likely to enter this fight looking to utilize that stamina once again to outwork Matthews. However, the problem with Magny is that he is extremely hittable and lacks the punching power or offensive output to deter his opponents. As a result, whenever his opponent can strike heavily and frequently, they tend to do so. This often forces Magny into survival mode for the majority of the fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny

It is uncertain whether Magny will find success against a well-rounded fighter like Matthews. Magny’s path to victory is quite limited and mainly hinges on his cardiovascular endurance and striking output. If he can control the fight, push the pace, and take on the role of aggressor, he could potentially pull off an upset. However, this will be a challenging task, especially considering that Matthews has triumphed over some dangerous opponents in his last three fights.

UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. Justin Tafa

Why Bet on Louie Sutherland?

Sutherland is coming off a series of victories, all within the past 12 months. He has been extremely busy, and while his success has mostly been in the regional scene, his background and training suggest that he is relatively well-prepared for this fight.

Sutherland trains at the same gym as Nathaniel Wood, which indicates that there is some strong intelligence in his corner. However, we also believe that most decent heavyweights can defeat Justin Tafa. If you can secure a takedown against Tafa, the fight is practically over because that gives you a significant advantage.

The primary threat Sutherland faces is Tafa’s raw power. Tafa relies on powerful punches, without any fancy or technical skills, so Sutherland doesn’t have to worry about complex strategies—it’s all about Tafa’s strength.

¿Por qué apostar por Justin Tafa?

Tafa is often simply described as a big guy with powerful punches, and that’s about it. Throughout his career, he has either knocked out lower-level opponents in the UFC or experienced disappointing losses to fighters like Teixeira and Karl Williams.

Tafa relies heavily on his punching power; in fact, his entire career seems to hinge on what is commonly known as a “puncher’s chance.” Beyond this, there isn’t much more to say about him that is significant.

Final Betting Analysis: Louie Sutherland vs. Justin Tafa

If you close your eyes and imagine how Tafa will perform this weekend, you might envision him throwing powerful punches and possibly landing a few, maybe even securing a knockout. However, if he doesn’t achieve that, he risks losing to a newcomer who is larger and more physically imposing than Tafa.

We believe that Sutherland is the most likely candidate to win in this matchup.

UFC Fight Night: Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell

¿Por qué apostar por Tom Nolan?

Nolan is 6 feet 3 inches tall in the Lightweight division, which is exceptionally tall for this weight class. He effectively utilizes his height to gain an advantage, as many of his strikes land due to his physical reach. One of his most effective attacks is his knee strike up the middle, which Campbell will either feel multiple times during the fight or be extremely cautious of, avoiding level changes.

Nolan’s height makes him a challenging opponent to contend with. While some of his opponents are preoccupied with trying to figure him out, Nolan is able to strike from a distance. Recently, he has also been successful with takedowns and threatening submissions.

¿Por qué apostar por Charlie Campbell?

Campbell is coming off back-to-back wins against Trevor Peek and Alex Reyes, two fighters who are quite unique, making it difficult to accurately assess Campbell’s skill level based on those victories alone.

When Charlie Campbell faces Nolan, he knows what to expect. One of the most immediate strategies we see him employing is landing leg kicks repeatedly. These kicks aim to chop down Nolan’s long limbs, significantly reducing both his output and power.

Final Betting Analysis: Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell

We expect to see more kicks than punches from Nolan, which could pose a challenge for Campbell. Campbell will likely want to close the distance and land his punches. However, as long as the fight stays at kicking range, Nolan will be able to target Campbell’s body like a heavy bag, potentially aiming to set up a head kick as well.

UFC Fight Night: Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato

¿Por qué apostar por Navajo Stirling?

Stirling has a record of 2-0 in the UFC, but both of his wins have come against opponents who are not particularly challenging. Ivan Erslans is a respectable fighter, but he is not at the UFC level. Meanwhile, Tokkos is a fighter who shouldn’t be competing at this level and is better suited for the regional scene.

Although Stirling comes from City Kickboxing, a gym known for producing dominant fighters who can execute impressive techniques like head kicks and knockouts, many of his performances have been quite cautious and unexciting.

We expect Navajo to utilize his reach and length to effectively compete against the dangerous Bellato, who possesses significant knockout power. However, we don’t anticipate anything extraordinary from Stirling, as his kickboxing is only decent at best, leaving a lot of uncertainty about his skills in the octagon.

¿Por qué apostar por Rodolfo Bellato?

Bellato sometimes tends to overreact to feints. While this indicates that his defense is relatively sound, allowing him to keep his guard up consistently, it also opens the door for Stirling to overwhelm Bellato’s senses and create openings.

One significant observation I have about Bellato is his right hook when he is in close range; he is extremely dangerous when throwing that punch. If Stirling engages with Bellato for too long in that range, there is a high likelihood that Bellato could land that right hook and turn the odds in his favor.

Aside from that, there isn’t much else we see from Bellato that could pose an immediate threat to the City Kickboxing prospect.

Final Betting Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Expect a lot of leg kicks to slow down Bellato’s output and forward pressure, but we think that Stirling’s main way to win this one is to play it, once again, safe and throw out those varied strikes that he throws out, but we are not too sure if we’re going to see sheer dominance.

UFC Fight Night: Andre Petroski vs. Cam Rowston

¿Por qué apostar por André Petroski?

Petroski is expected to fight in his usual style, keeping his chin up and attempting numerous takedowns while expending a lot of energy and cardio in the first two rounds. However, it’s uncertain if Rowston will be able to effectively defend against those takedowns.

We have some doubts about Petroski’s chin, so that’s something to consider. Nevertheless, we believe Petroski has enough experience to anticipate what might come his way. He is likely to stick to his strategy and quickly take the fight to the ground.

Any time spent striking against Rowston could allow him to excel, particularly since Petroski’s striking defense is lacking.

Why Bet on Cam Rowston?

Rowston is the younger fighter and is competing in his home country. However, his performance on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) was not particularly impressive, which is a significant concern. Despite receiving excellent training from Eugene Bareman, we believe he may face an uphill battle, especially as he will need to defend against repeated takedown attempts from Petroski.

If Rowston can time an uppercut or execute a teep kick up the middle, it could shift the momentum of the fight in his favor. However, we are hesitant to confidently predict this outcome since, during his DWCS fight, he faced an opponent who did not put up much of a fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Andre Petroski vs. Cam Rowston

Defensively, Rowston relies on his tall and lanky frame, using his reach as a barrier and a form of defense. As a result, his head movement is minimal. We believe Petroski will avoid taking unnecessary risks and will focus on securing takedowns to achieve a favorable victory against a potentially dangerous opponent.

UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott

¿Por qué apostar por Jonathan Micallef?

Micallef is coming off a significant victory against Kevin Jousset, where he not only injured him early in the fight but also systematically broke him down—an impressive feat considering Jousset’s toughness.

One of Micallef’s most effective tools in that match was his use of body and head kicks, which could potentially hinder Elliott’s wrestling offense. A strong kicking game is known to be particularly effective against wrestlers.

Additionally, Micallef has a reach advantage, but we have some concerns about his boxing skills. He tends to rely more on kicking than on boxing, so we suspect he might employ a similar strategy against Elliott, focusing on repeating his successful tactics.

¿Por qué apostar por Oban Elliott?

Elliott is coming off a tough loss to newcomer Seokhyeon Ko. The fight wasn’t very competitive, as Ko predominantly landed takedowns and controlled the action on the ground.

Elliott had seen some success in his earlier fights against Hafez, Parsons, and Val Woodburn. However, if we’re being honest, those opponents are not particularly strong, so it’s not fair to judge Elliott’s abilities solely based on those victories. While he did perform well against those three fighters, we believe it’s important for him to face more established UFC talent to truly gauge his skills.

Final Betting Analysis: Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott

In this fight, Elliott has two main strategies he may use this weekend. First, he could look for a counter with an overhand right since both fighters are in opposite stances. It will be a battle of who can land their powerful strikes first; in this scenario, Elliott might throw a strong overhand right to catch Micallef before he can deliver a body kick.

Regardless, Elliott needs to find a way to neutralize Micallef’s kicks if they are part of his game plan. Alternatively, Elliott could opt for a wrestling strategy, but he must be cautious because Micallef is adept at executing sneaky choke submissions. This approach could prove to be risky.

UFC Fight Night: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Rolando Bedoya

¿Por qué apostar por Jamie Mullarkey?

Mullarkey has always been an entertaining fighter to watch. He’s known for being gritty, standing his ground, and throwing punches regardless of the damage he takes. However, this has become a concern, as he absorbed a lot of damage in his last fight against Mauricio Ruffy, and his chin has let him down.

His recent inactivity could have a positive or negative impact on his career. On one hand, he may have fully recovered and developed a new approach and focus in his fighting style. On the other hand, he might have been inactive due to injuries or simply taking this fight to pay the bills.

Mullarkey is a fighter who utilizes every weapon in his arsenal with relentless determination. He often willingly risks absorbing shots to land his own. While this strategy has caused him problems recently, it may not be as detrimental against Bedoya, who is known as “the Peruvian Punching Bag.”

¿Por qué apostar por Rolando Bedoya?

Bedoya is the kind of fighter who will take on whatever comes his way. He seems to treat punches like an all-you-can-eat buffet, often coming back for more.

As of now, Bedoya has yet to secure a win in the UFC, which poses a challenge for Mullarkey. He will be facing an opponent who is, metaphorically speaking, backed into a corner in his career. Therefore, we fully expect to see Bedoya fight with the tenacity of Wile E. Coyote in the cage, throwing everything he can to try to end the fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Rolando Bedoya

We expect Mullarkey to return looking fresh and significantly more refined compared to his recent fights. However, he will need to withstand a lot of punches, as that is Bedoya’s fighting style. This matchup essentially reflects both fighters in many ways, but we believe that Mullarkey performs better in that brawling range than Bedoya. In several instances, Bedoya tends to lag behind in volume and output during exchanges.

UFC Fight Night: Colby Thicknesse vs. Josias Musasa

¿Por qué apostar por Colby Thicknesse?

Thicknesse is coming off a loss against Ilia’s brother, where he struggled to take the fight to the ground. He couldn’t control or dictate the pace of the match, leaving him feeling a bit like a fish out of water. Although he did throw some strikes here and there, his main objective in fights is to grapple and secure submissions. This is an area where Musasa may have difficulty defending.

¿Por qué apostar por Josias Musasa?

On the other hand, the complete opposite can be said about Musasa. He is a very solid knockout artist with excellent striking and a reach advantage over Thicknesse. This definitely works to his favor if he decides to strike from a distance. However, it’s unclear if Musasa is the type to throw many jabs; he tends to explode and engage directly with his opponents to inflict damage. If he can take an offensive approach in this fight, he has a genuine chance of upsetting Thicknesse’s opportunity to win in front of his home crowd.

Final Betting Analysis: Colby Thicknesse vs. Josias Musasa

As we mentioned during the Thicknesse breakdown, if he secures the takedown and maintains control afterward, it could be game over for Musasa relatively quickly. However, we believe that Musasa will utilize his longer reach to create problems and effectively defend against takedowns in order to capture the victory.

UFC Fight Night: Luana Carolina vs. Michelle Montague

¿Por qué apostar por Luana Carolina?

Carolina is a skilled fighter, but she had to move up to the 135-pound weight class because she struggled to make weight. This could mean she will either be significantly undersized compared to Montague or will perform better than she previously did.

Carolina is a reasonably good fighter; she is well-rounded and possesses strong takedown defense, which makes her appear to be a solid underdog option. However, we want to emphasize that she may be somewhat undersized in this matchup, and Montague’s physicality might be overwhelming for her, in our opinion.

Why Bet on Michelle Montague?

Montague does have a few red flags that we notice immediately. While there’s not much else to discuss regarding her skill set and fighting specialty, we need to address the elephant in the room.

Montague previously fought at 155 pounds and has spent most of her career at 145 pounds. This pattern is reminiscent of what we saw with Kayla Harrison. Although we are inclined to pick Montague, we do so with considerable hesitancy due to the challenges of cutting weight. The additional 10 pounds to lose can be brutal, and we are eager to see how she performs on the scales.

If she makes weight and can bulk back up to around 150 pounds, we believe she will have the ability to outwrestle and overpower Carolina, especially if she can get into a clinch or body lock.

Final Betting Analysis: Luana Carolina vs. Michelle Montague

While Carolina will certainly look impressive as the aggressor, we believe there is a chance she could connect with Montague’s chin or at least target her body to drain her stamina. This could potentially diminish Montague’s cardio and explosiveness when attempting takedowns and grappling.

However, the moment Montague secures a takedown or hip toss and gains top control, she is capable of holding that position for an extended period. Her submission offense has been excellent so far, and assuming the weight cut isn’t too taxing for her, we anticipate that Montague will perform better in this matchup.

UFC Fight Night: Brando Peričić vs. Elisha Ellison

Why Bet on Brando Peričić?

We understand that Pericic is included on this card because he represents City Kickboxing, so it’s only fitting to bring the entire gym along, right? Currently, he has a record of 4 wins and one loss, having won his last two fights against opponents with no recorded fights. It’s important to note that he is only on this card because he is Australian and comes from the same team as Ulberg and others.

Why Bet on Elisha Ellison?

Ellison enters this fight having a slight edge in experience, but he shares a similar issue: he hasn’t faced the high level of competition that would confirm he belongs at this level. It seems that the UFC signed him from the regional circuit to allow another City Kickboxing fighter to compete.

Final Betting Analysis: Brando Peričić vs. Elisha Ellison

Ellison may be facing an uphill battle due to the size difference between the two fighters. However, since this matchup is occurring in the heavyweight division between two unknowns, and it’s a double debut for both, we can only raise our hands in a shrug to express that we don’t know what to expect. Nevertheless, we are leaning towards considering the size advantage.

UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara

¿Por qué apostar por Loma Lookboonmee?

Lookboonme is an outstanding case study in the UFC, as it is quite rare to see a pure Muay Thai fighter with an extensive background in the sport transition to MMA so successfully. We can commend Lookboonme repeatedly for her striking skills, particularly in the clinch. However, we want to emphasize an area that will undoubtedly be tested by Thainara: her grappling and takedown defense.

Lookboonme has made significant improvements in her takedown defense. She has become a formidable fighter to engage with in the clinch, where her initial defense often relies on her knees and elbows. From there, she lowers her base and employs her well-honed takedown defense techniques.

¿Por qué apostar por Alexia Thainara?

Thainara has only fought once in the UFC, and that was against Molly McCann. This makes it difficult to accurately assess Thainara’s skills, as McCann is considered a fighter who is relatively easier to overcome.

It’s important to note that Thainara’s MMA abilities contrast sharply with those of Lookboonme. While Lookboonme is primarily a striker, Thainara is more proficient in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. She has the ability to punch and kick, but her strengths lie in grappling and submissions.

Final Betting Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara

Thainara’s primary strategies for winning this fight will be her grappling and wrestling, which are essentially her only methods of victory outside of achieving a ground-and-pound TKO. We believe that as long as this fight remains standing and Lookboonme maintains some control over Thainara’s posture in the clinch, she has the potential to win. However, it will be a very challenging uphill battle. That said, a Thainara victory by submission is definitely possible in this matchup.

Ulberg vs. Reyes Pronóstico de apuestas: Carlos Ulberg

Crute vs. Erslan Pronóstico de apuestas: Jimmy Crute

Jenkins vs. Taveras Pronóstico de apuestas: Jack Jenkins

Matthews vs. Magny Pronóstico de apuestas: Jake Matthews

Sutherland vs. Tafa Pronóstico de apuestas: Louie Sutherland

Nolan vs. Campbell Pronóstico de apuestas: Tom Nolan

Stirling vs. Bellato Pronóstico de apuestas: Navajo Stirling

Petroski vs. Rowston Pronóstico de apuestas: André Petroski

Micallef vs. Elliott Pronóstico de apuestas: Jonathan Micallef

Mullarkey vs. Bedoya Pronóstico de apuestas: Jamie Mullarkey

Thicknesse vs. Musasa Pronóstico de apuestas: Josías Musasa

Carolina vs. Montague Pronóstico de apuestas: Michelle Montague

Peričić vs. Ellison Pronóstico de apuestas: Brando Pericic

Lookboonmee vs. Thainara Pronóstico de apuestas: Alexia Thainara