Última atualização em 2 de fevereiro de 2023 14h17 por Erwin Noguera
Estamos prestes a iniciar a programação do UFC de fevereiro de 2023, e a primeira parada é no UFC Apex em Las Vegas, Nevada, enquanto testemunhamos uma Fight Night com um excelente evento principal de peso pesado e muitos talentos das regiões asiáticas em busca de mostrar suas habilidades.
O evento principal mostra “The Black Beast”, Derrick Lewis, enfrentando um lutador promissor em Serghei “The Polar Bear” Spivak.
Este evento conta com 12 lutas, sendo 5 na luta principal e 7 preliminares para serem aproveitadas pelos fãs de luta de todo o mundo.
Você pode verificar todos os UFC/MMA Apostas, análise de cada lutador e a aposta final que você pode fazer nesta luta.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Probabilidades de apostas e escolhas de cartas de luta – Informações
Quando: Sábado, 4 de fevereiro, às 22h (horário do leste dos EUA)
Probabilidades de Moneyline:
Derrick Lewis +190 / Serghei Spivac -230
Da Un Jung -230 / Devin Clark +190
Marcin Tybura -155 / Blagoy Ivanov +130
Doo Ho Choi -190 / Kyle Nelson +160
Yusaku Kinoshita -300 / Adam Fugitt +240
Anshul Jubli -110 / Jeka Saragih -110
Zha Yi +200 / Jeong Yeong Lee -250
Rinya Nakamura -425 / Toshiomi Kazama +330
Parque Hyun Sung -200 / Seung Guk Choi +165
Ji Yeon Kim -260 / Mandy Böhm +210
Parque Jun Yong -200 / Denis Tiuliulin +170
Tatsuro Taira -1100 / Jesus Aguilar +750
Onde posso assistir?
UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis x Serghei Spivac
Por que apostar em Derrick Lewis
It was a difficult year for Lewis in 2022. The “Black Beast” closed out 2021 in spectacular fashion, tallying a first-round finish over Chris Daukaus at UFC Vegas 45 to set the UFC record for most knockout wins.
As comemorações não durariam muito, pois isso foi seguido por duas derrotas desiguais por nocaute para Tai Tuivasa e Sergei Pavlovich em duas partidas no octógono no ano passado.
Why Bet on Serghei Spivac
After falling to win in two of his first three UFC contests, Spivak has found his groove.
The 28-year-old Moldovan finished off each of his past two opponents, capped by an impressive second-round TKO win over Augusto Sakai last time out at UFC Vegas 59.
Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac Final Betting Analysis:
If you take a look at their stats, Spivak is the favorite.
However, this fight is of huge importance for Lewis, who simply has to go all-in.
This, however, doesn’t mean that he should rush to get a quick finish. On the contrary, he needs to fight smart.
We believe that he can do it, but even if that strategy doesn’t work, Lewis still has the nuclear option in his fists. Let’s not forget that this guy is the UFC record-holder for most knockout wins.
UFC Fight Night: Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark
Why Bet on Da Un Jung
Da Un Jung hit a major roadblock in his bid to crack the UFC light heavyweight rankings last time out.
After going undefeated in his first five octagon appearances, Jung saw his night ended by one punch just 3:13 into his fight with Dustin Jacoby last summer at UFC Long Island.
The question now is how the 29-year-old Korean will respond. Jung sports impressive punching power, with 11 of his 15 career wins coming by knockout, as well as knockdowns recorded in three of his past five contests.
When given the opportunity, Jung is also effective at level changes but enjoys more success fighting on his feet.
Why Bet on Devin Clark
Clark saw his return to the light heavyweight division spoiled with a third-round TKO loss to Azamat Murzakanov last summer at UFC San Diego.
However, to Clark’s credit, it is amazing his tilt with Murzakanov lasted so long considering the beating he took while being outstruck by a wide 79-14 margin.
That extends a trend that has seen “Black Bear” badly beaten up or quickly submitted while losing three of his past four outings.
Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark Final Betting Analysis:
Jung’s last appearance in the octagon, when he suffered his first defeat since 2015, was a somewhat fluke first-round knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby.
However, Da Un has the advantage overall, including some noteworthy differences in the knockdown average per 15 minutes (3x), submission average per 15 minutes (3x), and takedown accuracy (2x).
When all is said and done, Da Un has more ways to win in his arsenal, and I think that’s exactly what we see play out in this one.
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov
Why Bet on Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura hasn’t been in the octagon since a majority decision victory over Alexander Romanov in August 2022.
That was an excellent return for the fighter after losing by unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov at UFC 267 in October 2021.
Why Bet on Blagoy Ivanov
Blagoy Ivanov has been away from the octagon for slightly longer than his opponent, with his last appearance resulting in a unanimous decision win against Marcos Rogerio de Lima at UFC 274 in May 2022.
That was a perfect return to action on the UFC schedule after losing his previous two fights.
Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov Final Betting Analysis:
These two veteran heavyweights will almost certainly be set for a war when they clash at Fight Night on Saturday.
Given that we haven’t seen either fighter for a while, it makes predictions fairly difficult, but both will feel as though they have a solid chance of recording the victory.
We are confident that the judges will be needed to decide the winner of this bout as we struggle to see a spectacular finish on the horizon.
Our token is placed on Tybura, who should dominate with his offensive wrestling.
UFC Fight Night: Doo Ho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson
Why Bet on Doo Ho Choi
“The Korean Superboy,” Doo Ho Choi, re-enters the octagon for the first time since 2019.
Before his temporary departure, Choi was on a three-fight losing streak; he lost to Swanson by decision and Stephens and Jourdain by knockout.
Before the losing streak, Choi was 3-0 in the UFC with three first-round knockouts.
Por que apostar em Kyle Nelson
Kyle “The Monster” Nelson, is no stranger to quick finish wins himself.
Professionally, Nelson is 13-5 with nine wins coming inside the distance and three losses following suit.
In the UFC, Nelson is 1-4, with all but his most recent fight ending inside the distance.
Doo Ho Choi vs. Kyle Nelson Final Betting Analysis:
Both of these fighters are round 1 power punchers with incomplete games and glaring holes that most well-rounded UFC fighters can expose.
The two key differences are that Choi’s striking is at least varied and more technical than Nelson’s.
Also, Choi will likely be faster and land with more precision. In what should be a fun fight, in the end, Choi should be able to take the win.
UFC Fight Night: Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt
Why Bet on Yusaku Kinoshita
Kinoshita is just 22 years of age, and he’s finished off all six of his professional wins.
He’s a striker first and foremost, a crafty Southpaw with major finishing power in his left hand; and he’s rangy and likes to fight on the counter, which makes for a fun Welterweight prospect.
Por que apostar em Adam Fugitt
Unlike his current opponent, Fugitt is more of a wrestler.
He’s comfortable enough throwing hands, but that’s usually a means to an end until he can gain top position and drop ground strikes.
Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt Final Betting Analysis:
Kinoshita has the higher overall upside as the far younger and more athletic prospect.
However, he’s also yet to face a wrestler the quality of Fugitt, so the potential for a frustrating, spoiler-type win for Fugitt certainly exists as well.
It will also be interesting to see how Kinoshita deals with a reach disadvantage.
Ultimately, we trust Kinoshita to make the necessary adjustments.
He moves with real fluidity for his experience level, and he knows how to convert that gift to massive shots landed — shots that should decide the outcome here.
UFC Fight Night: Anshul Jubli vs. Jeka Saragih
Why Bet on Anshul Jubli
After racking up five wins under the Matrix Fight Night banner, Anshul Jubli (6-1) got a pass to Road to UFC’s semifinals when Sho Patrick Usami botched his weight cut.
There, he edged out Kyung Pyo Kim by a split decision to secure his spot in the big show.
Why Bet on Jeka Saragih
Jeka Saragih (13-2) scored one of Road to UFC’s best quarterfinal finishes, smashing Pawan Maan Singh with a spinning back fist.
“Death Kick” entrou em seu confronto semifinal com Won Bin Ki como um azarão considerável, mas mudou o roteiro com uma finalização violenta de um soco.
A vitória marcou a oitava por nocaute e a 12ª na distância.
Análise final das apostas Anshul Jubli x Jeka Saragih:
Unpolished aggression versus patient technique is always a fun clash of styles, but aggression’s likely got this one in the bag.
Jubli just isn’t a particularly dynamic boxer, lacking the speed and power to make his meat-and-potatoes offense shine.
He’s also vulnerable to kicks, which Saragih offers in spades, and tends to linger in the pocket, where Saragih’s cruder but heavier hands can find the mark.
Jubli benefitted from Kim’s lack of aggression in the semifinals, which allowed him to cruise to an early lead and survive when his gas tank started to give out.
He’ll have no such luxury against Saragih, who’ll be looking to tear his head off from the opening bell. Once Saragih’s low kicks start finding their mark and Jubli becomes a stationary target, it’s a matter of time before Saragih blows him away.
UFC Fight Night: Zha Yi x Jeong Yeong Lee
Por que apostar em Zha Yi
Yi acertou Keisuke Sasu rapidamente em sua primeira luta no Road to UFC, eliminando-o com um mata-leão menos da metade do primeiro round.
Seu confronto subsequente com Koyomi Matsushima foi mais difícil, mas mesmo assim ele conquistou a decisão dividida para sua décima vitória em suas últimas 11 lutas.
Suas finalizações profissionais são divididas em 10/6 entre finalizações/nocautes.
Por que apostar em Jeong Yeong Lee
Nove meses depois de derrotar Mu Gyeom Choi pelo cinturão dos penas do Road FC, Jeong Yeong Lee (9-1) precisou de apenas 10 segundos para defendê-lo contra o invicto Hae Jin Park.
Ele tem sido igualmente eficiente no Road to UFC, parando seus dois oponentes em 1:18 minutos combinados.
Análise final das apostas de Zha Yi x Jeong Yeong Lee:
Não seria surpreendente ver outra finalização rápida aqui.
Embora Yi pudesse hipoteticamente destruir Lee, ele é o tipo de lutador de pressão linear que o contra-direito de Lee foi construído para destruir.
Doggedness is an admirable trait, but it can’t make up for being an easy target against a puncher of this caliber.
Yi’s best chance lies in grinding out Lee, and it’s certainly not out of the question.
The slick armbar Lee hit on Xie Bin doesn’t necessarily mean his ground game can hold up against a determined grinder.
That said, it’s a lot more likely that Lee blasts him with a straight down the pipe for an early knockout.
UFC Fight Night: Rinya Nakamura vs. Toshiomi Kazama
Why Bet on Rinya Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura (6-0) followed his highly successful amateur wrestling career by making his mixed martial arts (MMA) debut in 2021 and racking up four quick wins on the Japanese circuit.
The momentum continued in Road to UFC, where he submitted Gugun Gusman and knocked out Shohei Nose in under six minutes combined.
He’s knocked out four professional foes and submitted one other.
Why Bet on Toshiomi Kazama
Toshiomi Kazama’s (10-2) nine-fight win streak came to an end at the hands of Shoji Saito, who put him away with a vicious flying knee in April 2022.
Little more than one month later, he defeated Maimaitituoheti Keremuaili in the Road to UFC quarterfinals, then got a walkover in the semifinal round when Min Woo Kim missed weight.
Six of his eight finishes have come in the first round.
Rinya Nakamura vs. Toshiomi Kazama Final Betting Analysis:
Kazama is a super-fun grappler, but he’s up against a human bulldozer with a ridiculous wrestling pedigree.
While he’s good enough off of his back to potentially flip the script if Nakamura elects to initiate the grappling, there’s not a lot he can do to stop Nakamura from just marching through him on the feet with sheer power and aggression.
Let’s be hopeful that we do see some ground exchanges just to see how Nakamura’s freestyle and Kazama’s more traditional Brazilian jiu-jitsu clash, odds are we’re in for a brief, but entertaining, slugfest.
In short, Nakamura knocks his block off in the first few minutes.
UFC Fight Night: Hyun Sung Park vs. Seung Guk Choi
Why Bet on Hyun Sung Park
“Peace of Mind” cruised into the Road to UFC semis thanks to a first-round beatdown of Jeremia Siregar.
This set up a semifinal clash with Muay Thai veteran Topnoi Kiwram, who dropped Park early but succumbed to a comeback submission midway through the first.
Park’s six pro finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Why Bet on Seung Guk Choi
More than two years after he’d last entered the cage, Choi ground his way past Rama Supandhi in the Road to UFC semis.
Then came Qiulun, whom Choi again leaned on his grappling to defeat. The Chan Sung Jung acolyte stands an inch shorter than Park and gives up two inches of reach.
Hyun Sung Park vs. Seung Guk Choi Final Betting Analysis:
Unless Choi’s shaky performances in the tournament were due to issues with southpaws, the prognosis looks grim.
He’s at a distinct disadvantage in the standup thanks to Park’s well-timed counters and I’m not convinced his wrestling can bail him out this time, as “Peace Of Mind” has shown off some solid ground skills of his own.
Choi needs to have made a huge technical turnaround to win this, and given he’s still at this level after nearly five years as a pro, it is hard to be hopeful.
Park outclasses him, potentially finishing with either a heavy counter or rear naked choke.
UFC Fight Night: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Böhm
Por que apostar em Ji Yeon Kim
“Fire Fist” put a UFC debut loss to Lucie Pudilova behind her to win three of her next four, including a TKO finish of Nadia Kassem.
She’s since lost four straight, though her decision defeat to Priscila Cachoeira came with no shortage of controversy.
Por que apostar em Mandy Böhm
Bohm spent the first portion of her career on the German circuit, after which she beat Jade Masson-Wong for the TKO Flyweight title and won her sole Bellator appearance against Griet Eeckhout.
Essas seriam suas últimas vitórias até o momento, já que ela perdeu decisões consecutivas para Ariane Lipski e Victoria Leonardo no octógono. Ela nocauteou e finalizou dois adversários profissionais cada.
Análise final das apostas Ji Yeon Kim x Mandy Böhm:
No one expected Bohm to set the world on fire, but she’s been quite underwhelming in the Octagon.
She looks almost lethargic in there, rarely showing off the solid kicks or dangerous clinch work that brought her victory in other organizations, and she still declines drastically as fights progress despite pushing such a low pace.
If nothing else, Kim is extremely busy in the cage. Even if Bohm does manage to play keep-away early on, Kim will be the one doing damage, especially as the rounds go by and Bohm’s gas tank gives out.
Kim finally gets back on track by outworking Bohm to a wide decision.
UFC Fight Night: Jun Yong Park vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Por que apostar no Jun Yong Park
Park’s UFC run got off to a shaky start thanks to Anthony Hernandez, who ended their competitive clash with an anaconda choke late in the second.
“The Iron Turtle” has since won five of six, most recently choking out Joseph Holmes in October 2022.
Por que apostar em Denis Tiuliulin?
Tiuliulin welcomed Contender Series standout Aliaskhab Khizriev to the Octagon in his UFC debut, which saw him fall to “The Black Wolf’s” rear naked choke in the second round.
He had quite a bit more success against Jamie Pickett, battering “The Night Wolf” into submission in September 2022. All but one of his pro wins have come by knockout.
Jun Yong Park vs. Denis Tiuliulin Final Betting Analysis:
Tiuliulin’s decent power is offset by a lack of technique and speed, plus a poor ground game that Park’s high-volume takedown offense will take full advantage of.
Park’s cardio and durability are both stout enough to prevent Tiuliulin from snowballing late, though it’s hard to see him lasting long enough for that to matter.
Park overwhelms him on the mat for a mid-round finish.
UFC Fight Night: Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar
Why Bet on Tatsuro Taira
Taira capped off his lengthy stint in Shooto by choking out Ryuya Fukuda for the promotion’s Flyweight title in July 2021.
After another quick submission of Alfredo Muaiad, he made his way to the Octagon, where he’s claimed dominant victories over Carlos Candelario and C.J. Vergara.
He’s the taller man by three inches and boasts an eight-inch reach advantage.
Why Bet on Jesus Aguilar
Undefeated since his pro debut, Aguilar put together a strong run to earn a spot on the Contender Series, claiming the UWC Flyweight belt along the way.
Once at the APEX, he survived a rough start to outlast Erisson Ferreira and put him away with his signature guillotine choke. That technique accounts for five of his six submission victories.
Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar Final Betting Analysis:
With all due respect to Aguilar, he is in a really tough position, as this goes beyond tough matchmaking into downright spiteful.
Taira is the superior technician in every facet of the game; too skilled and rangy for Aguilar to beat on the feet, too adept a wrestler for Aguilar to grind out, and too good a submission artist to succumb to Aguilar’s chokes.
The only feasible scenario in which Aguilar wins is if Taira dives headfirst into Aguilar’s guillotine, and though Taira can make things difficult on himself at times, he’s not foolish enough to fall victim to that.
He dominates everywhere before ultimately finding Aguilar’s neck.
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