NBA Offseason: Which Contenders Got Stronger?

Last Updated on Julho 28, 2026 4:02 pm by Erwin Noguera

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Paul George, LaMelo Ball and Ja Morant have all changed teams. LeBron James left the Lakers after eight seasons and signed somewhere nobody expected. This has been one of the most aggressive offseasons in recent NBA history, and the championship odds have moved accordingly.

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Here is who actually got better, and who paid for it.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Biggest Winners

Philadelphia entered this offseason at 55-1 to win the championship. They are now around +900, tied with the champion Knicks. No team in the league moved further.

It happened in two steps. First, the Sixers traded Paul George, two first-round picks (2028 and 2031) and two second-round picks (2028 and 2030) to Boston for Jaylen Brown. That alone was a massive upgrade: a 29-year-old All-Star wing replacing a declining George, on a roster that had just eliminated Boston in the first round of the 2026 playoffs.

Then they signed LeBron James on a veteran’s minimum contract. James chose Philadelphia over Cleveland and Miami and has said he intends to finish his career there.

The resulting roster is genuinely frightening on paper: Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, VJ Edgecombe, and LeBron James, with Anfernee Simons added on a two-year, $12.3 million deal for guard depth. The questions are the ones Philadelphia always faces: Embiid’s health, and whether a 41-year-old LeBron can still be the closer in a playoff series. But the ceiling is higher than it has been in a decade.

Miami Heat: All-In on Giannis

Miami acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from Milwaukee for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks including the 13th overall in 2026, a pick swap and a second-round pick.

That is an enormous price. Pat Riley emptied the depth chart and most of the draft cupboard to land a two-time MVP. Miami’s championship odds moved from 30-1 to roughly 18-1 on the news.

Giannis joins Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Tim Hardaway Jr. The frontcourt pairing of Giannis and Adebayo is one of the best defensive combinations in basketball. The problem is everything behind them. Miami gave up four rotation players to make this deal, and the roster around the two stars is thin.

Riley has never rebuilt slowly. But this may take a full year to properly construct. Miami is better but not finished.

Toronto Raptors: The Best Value Move of the Summer in the NBA

Toronto sat at +15000 to win the title in mid-June. They are now around +2200. That is the largest percentage swing of any team in the league, and it came from one trade.

The Raptors acquired Kawhi Leonard from the Clippers for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and draft compensation. Leonard joins a playoff roster that already had Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl. Toronto did not gut the core to do it.

The obvious caveat is Leonard’s availability. He has not played a full season in years, and Toronto is paying for a player who may only be at full strength for the playoffs. But that is exactly the bet Toronto is making: get to the postseason, then find out. It is a reunion with the franchise he won a title with in 2019, and the Eastern Conference is open enough that it could work.

San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder: Standing Pat by Choice

The two co-favorites did almost nothing, and it was the right call.

San Antonio made the Finals with Victor Wembanyama at 22 years old and lost 4-1 to New York. They are at +270 to win the 2027 title and remain the betting favorite alongside Oklahoma City. Their improvement comes internally: Wembanyama has another year of development, and a young team that just played on the biggest stage returns with that experience intact.

Oklahoma City won 60-plus games and did not reach the Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the most complete two-way guard in the West. The core is intact and cheap. The Thunder do not need to trade for a star. They need the roster they already have to convert regular-season dominance into a NBA playoff run.

Neither team got stronger through transactions. Both are still the two teams to beat.

Minnesota Timberwolves: An Interesting Bet

Minnesota traded Naz Reid and picks to Charlotte for LaMelo Ball. Anthony Edwards now has a genuine primary playmaker alongside him for the first time in his career.

The fit is the whole story. Edwards has carried an enormous offensive burden and needed someone to take pressure off him as the creator. LaMelo needed a winning environment and a co-star. Both problems are solved on paper.

The concerns are real. LaMelo’s defense is a liability in a Western Conference full of elite guards, and his availability has been inconsistent. Losing Reid also hurts the frontcourt depth Minnesota had built. But if the chemistry works, this becomes one of the most exciting offensive teams in the NBA.

New York Knicks: Running It Back

The defending champions did not make a major move, and there was no obvious reason to. New York won the title 4-1 over San Antonio, with Jalen Brunson scoring 45 points in the Game 5 clincher on the road and taking Finals MVP.

The core returns: Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, with Mike Brown coaching after winning his second Coach of the Year award. Continuity is the asset here. This group has now been through a full championship run together.

The Knicks sit around +900, tied with Philadelphia and behind both Western favorites. That is a strange place for a defending champion, and it says more about how much the rest of the league improved than about anything New York did wrong.

Boston Celtics: The Team That Got Worse

Boston traded Jaylen Brown to a division rival that had just eliminated them in the first round, and received Paul George plus four picks in return.

Brad Stevens framed it as a salary cap and future flexibility decision, which it clearly was. Boston got out from under a maximum contract and picked up draft capital. That is defensible team-building.

It is also a downgrade for next season. Boston’s odds went from around +700 to +1400. Jayson Tatum now carries the franchise alone, with a 36-year-old George as the second option and a Philadelphia team that just added Brown and LeBron sitting in the same division.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Clearest Losers

LeBron James informed the Lakers he was leaving, then signed with Philadelphia. Los Angeles also traded Deandre Ayton to Washington for Jaden Hardy and picks.

Eight years of the LeBron era in Los Angeles ends with one championship, won in the 2020 bubble. The Lakers now have to build a contender around Luka Dončić without the player who has defined the franchise’s last decade. They sit at 30-1 and are looking at a transitional season.

Milwaukee is in a similar position after moving Giannis. The Bucks got a substantial return in players and picks, but they are 250-1 and starting over.

Who Actually Got Stronger towards the next NBA season?

Three teams meaningfully improved: Philadelphia, Miami and Toronto. Philadelphia added the best player available in a trade and then landed LeBron for nothing. Miami got a top-five player at enormous cost. Toronto took the biggest odds swing in the NBA for a reasonable price.

Minnesota is the interesting middle case: better offensively, possibly worse defensively, and entirely dependent on fit.

But the two teams at the top of the board did nothing, and that is the real story of this offseason. San Antonio and Oklahoma City are still the favorites. Every big move happened in the Eastern Conference, and the West’s two best teams watched it all without flinching.

The Eastern Conference is now a genuine four-way fight between Philadelphia, New York, Miami and whatever Toronto turns out to be. Getting out of the East just became the hardest thing in basketball.