NFL Weekly Update: Week 5

Last Updated on Outubro 6, 2026 6:56 pm by Erwin Noguera

Three teams are unbeaten, and one of them is on a bye. Kansas City sit out NFL Week 5 alongside Carolina, which leaves Minnesota and San Francisco as the only 4-0 sides in action, and the 49ers travel to a Seattle team that has lost once.

We analyze the games of the league’s best four sides each week. With the Chiefs idle, that means Minnesota, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Baltimore, and two of those four face opponents who belong in the same conversation.

The line movement is again the story. Dallas opened as 3.5-point favorites against Tampa Bay and are now lying 10. Chicago opened as 3-point underdogs at Green Bay and are now 2.5-point favorites: a five-and-a-half-point swing. New England opened -8.5 against Las Vegas and has been bet down to -3.5. Ten of the fifteen games carry spreads of four points or fewer.

No Troca de Gambila, você pode explorar todas as previsões para o NFL, as apostas finais para esta jornada e as probabilidades para cada partida.

Jogos da Semana 5 da NFL

Chiefs and Panthers on bye.

NFL Week 5: 49ers vs. Seahawks

The best game of the week, and the only one between a 4-0 team and a 3-1 team. San Francisco has the best point differential in football and beats Denver 24-14 on Sunday. Seattle is 3-1, defending champions, and have won three times without their starting quarterback: Drew Lock threw three touchdowns in a 31-7 rout of Arizona, and they handled the Chargers 30-23 last week.

The model disagrees with the market and takes the road team. ESPN’s FPI makes San Francisco favorites by 1.4 points with a 56% win probability, against a line that has Seattle laying 2.5 at home. That is a four-point gap in where the undefeated side is the one receiving points.

Lumen Field is the reason, and it is a real one: Seattle’s home advantage is the most tangible in the conference. But a 4-0 team with the league’s best differential, taking points, against a side whose quarterback situation is still unresolved, is the clearest value on the board.

Prediction: 49ers 24-21 Seahawks

NFL Week 5: Vikings vs. Saints

A 4-0 team is laying a point and a half on the road, and the number tells you why. Minnesota beat Miami 15-10 last week: their fourth win, and their third in which they failed to reach 24 points. The defense remains the best unit in the NFC, allowing around 12 points a game, but the offence has produced 9, 23, and 15 in three of four outings.

New Orleans is 1-3 and were beaten 45-24 at home by Atlanta on Monday night, conceding five rushing touchdowns.

The total has dropped from 44.5 to 42.5, and ESPN makes Minnesota favorites by only 0.8 points with a 54%-win probability: essentially a coin flip for an unbeaten team against a side that just gave up 45 at home.

That is the market pricing Minnesota’s scoring rather than their record, and it is a fair read. The Vikings win games 15-10, and they do not cover spreads.

Prediction: Vikings 20-16 Saints

NFL Week 5: Ravens vs. Falcons

Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games. Since Michael Penix Jr. returned, they have won 35-14 at Lambeau and 45-24 at New Orleans, with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. combining for a franchise-record five rushing touchdowns na noite de segunda-feira.

Baltimore is 3-1 and beat Tennessee 24-18, a result in which they were laying 11.5 points and did not come close to covering. They have won three straight and covered once in that run.

This is a much shorter number than the Ravens are used to seeing, and the model barely separates them: ESPN has Baltimore favorites by 2.4 points with a 58% probability, a point less than the posted line. The total has come down from 48.5 to 46.5, which is the one move that does not fit a team scoring 40 a game.

Atlanta are 2-2 and the hottest offence in the NFC. Three and a half points in primetime at home is not much to ask of them.

Prediction: Ravens 27-24 Falcons

NFL Week 5: Bills vs. Rams

The highest total of the week at 53.5, and it has not moved a point since opening. That is unusual on a board where almost everything else has swung.

Buffalo arrives at 3-1 having lost at home to New England as seven-point favorites: a defeat we flagged the risk of and then picked against. The problem is the one we have named for three weeks: Buffalo score 38.5 a game and concede around 31. That profile wins games and does not cover numbers.

The Rams are 2-2 but remain Super Bowl co-favorites, and they beat Philadelphia 24-20 in week four. Myles Garrett’s absence has stretched past a month, which is the reason a team prized as a championship contender is only laying 2.5 at home.

ESPN makes the Rams favorites by 2.4 with a 60% probability in line with the market for once. A 53.5 total between two defenses that have struggled is the part worth betting on, not the side.

Prediction: Rams 30-27 Bills

The Rest of the Slate in One Line

Dallas -10 over Tampa Bay on Thursday is the biggest move of the week, from an opening -3.5, driven entirely by Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb and an undrafted rookie starting in his place.

Chicago opened as 3-point underdogs at Green Bay and are now 2.5-point favorites: a five-and-a-half-point swing for a team that has won twice with Case Keenum.

Jacksonville host Philadelphia in London as 4.5-point favorites, having opened as 2.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars are 3-1, and the model likes them by 6.5.

Cincinnati are 7-point road favorites at 0-4 Miami, in a game whose total has collapsed from 48.5 to 41.5.

And Detroit-Arizona matches Bills-Rams for the highest total at 53.5, with the Lions bet down from -8.5 to -4.5 after losing to Carolina.