Ranking de poder da NFL por trimestre

Last Updated on Outubro 9, 2026 9:04 pm by Erwin Noguera

Tampa Bay were 0-4 and ten-point underdogs in Dallas on NFL TNF, starting a rookie quarterback. They won 24-16.

That is the season in one result. Last year’s fourteen playoff teams are 30-26, the worst start by a returning playoff field in fifteen years; five teams are winless, and three of the league’s four best point differentials belong to teams nobody picked in August.

Three sides are undefeated. Only two of them belong in the top four.

Here is where all thirty-two actually stand at the quarter mark.

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These rankings weigh three things: point differential, record, and the quality of who you beat. Differential leads, because four games of close results tell you less than four games of margins. Where the ranking departs from the standings, the reason is stated.

1. San Francisco 49ers — 4-0, +58

The best record and the best point differential in football, built while the injury list grew every week.

Nick Bosa is out with a calf. Ricky Pearsall is gone for the season. Rookie De’Zhaun Stribling is out ten weeks. San Francisco has not lost a game. 122 points scored, 64 conceded; nobody else in the league is top three in both columns.

Brock Purdy is an early MVP candidate, and the 24-14 win over Denver mattered because it was the first evidence this team can win on defence and special teams when the offence is ordinary.

The case against: the schedule has been manageable, and the NFC West is about to get harder. A +58 differential against the teams they have played is not the same as a +58 against the ones they have not.

2. Kansas City Chiefs — 4-0, +41

Four wins, four conference wins, two divisional wins, and the hardest slate of any unbeaten team.

Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards and six total touchdowns, and the effect goes beyond the ground game; a credible run threat has let Patrick Mahomes attack deep again.

The 30-27 win at Las Vegas is the best result any 4-0 team owns, against a side sitting at 3-1 with a +31 differential.

The case against: the receiving room is thinning. Tyquan Thornton has a dislocated left ankle, and Rashee Rice a hamstring. The bye this week is well timed, and they will need it.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars — 3-1, +51

They have conceded nine first-half points all season.

Not nine a game. Nine in total, across four games. The best point differential in the AFC belongs to a team whose defence nobody was discussing in August.

The hype was about Year 2 of the Liam Coen offence. The story is defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. Jacksonville are top eight in the NFL in sacks, run defence, turnovers, red-zone efficiency and third-down defence, com o second-best run defence in football at 74.3 yards a game.

They won 22-17 at Cincinnati despite 125 penalty yards, their most in a single game since 2019.

The case against: 104 points scored is middling, and a defence this good this early has further to fall than to climb. The one defeat is the only data point suggesting they are beatable, and it is four weeks old.

4. Chicago Bears — 3-1, +47

Three different quarterbacks have started. The results have not changed.

Caleb Williams put up 59 points on Carolina before his hamstring injury. Case Keenum beat Philadelphia. Tyson Bagent handled the Jets 23-12.

That is because the team around the position is doing the work. Chicago are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards, first downs, and time of possession, and own the league’s best rushing offence at 785 yards. Ben Johnson has built something that does not depend on who takes the snap.

The case against: the 59-point game was against a Carolina side that also lost 34-3 to a team with no quarterback, and it inflates the differential meaningfully. Strip that result, and the profile is good rather than elite.

5. Minnesota Vikings — 4-0, +35

They are undefeated, and they have scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.

Minnesota’s defence ranks No. 1 in the NFL in expected points added. Brian Flores is blitzing on 68% of snaps. The special teams unit ranks Nº 2: Will Reichard is 12 for 12 on field goals, and Myles Price is averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return and 20.1 per punt return.

86 points scored and 51 conceded. They win 15-10, and they win 4-0.

The case against: it is the whole ranking. A team that cannot score is one injury on defence from being ordinary, and 21.5 points a game does not survive January. This is the unbeaten record most likely to break first, and it is why they sit fifth rather than second.

6. Seattle Seahawks — 3-1, +32

The defending champions are 3-1 with a +32 differential and almost nothing has gone to plan.

Sam Darnold injured his glute on the fifth play of the season and missed most of two games. First-round running back Jadarian Price fumbled in consecutive weeks and is now on IR. They set a franchise record with 150 penalty yards in Week 4 and won anyway, 30-23 at home over the Chargers.

Drew Lock’s fill-in stint was excellent, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making a serious case as the best receiver in football.

The case against: winning while this disorganised is a skill with a ceiling. The penalties and the fumbles are not noise at this volume, and the quarterback situation is still unresolved.

7. Las Vegas Raiders — 3-1, +31

Priced at 125-1 in August. They are 3-1 with a +31 differential, and their only defeat was by three points to the best offence in football.

Kirk Cousins is playing at a high level, and first-time head coach Klint Kubiak has a team that has been competitive in every quarter it has played. With the Chargers 0-4 and Denver 2-2, a playoff run in Year 1 is no longer a strange thing to say.

The case against: 115 points scored against 84 conceded is a good profile, not a dominant one, and three of their four games came against teams currently under .500.

8. Baltimore Ravens — 3-1, +20

Their best start in three seasons, and it may be about to cost them.

Lamar Jackson sprained his left ankle against Tennessee and did not practise on Wednesday. NFL Network reports an outside chance he plays Sunday at Atlanta; ESPN reports a game-time decision. Tyler Huntley is the backup.

The offensive line is already improvising: Baltimore are down to their fourth-choice centre and third-string right guard.

The case against: they beat Tennessee 24-18 as 11.5-point favourites and have covered once in three straight wins. A 3-1 record and a +20 differential is a fair but unspectacular profile, and the quarterback risk is live this week.

9. Buffalo Bills — 3-1, +20

127 points scored (the most in the AFC; 107 conceded), more than any team above them.

They opened the season with 77 points and 855 yards in two weeks and looked like a scoring-record team. The last two weeks: 25 points a game and seven turnovers, including a home defeat to New England as seven-point favourites.

And the early wins have aged badly. Houston and Detroit, the two teams Buffalo demolished in September, are now a combined 2-6.

The case against: we have named the defence as the problem for four straight weeks, and the Patriots result is what it looks like when the market finally agrees. A team that scores 31.75 a game and concedes 26.75 wins games and does not cover numbers.

10. Cincinnati Bengals — 2-2, +12

The best differential of any .500 team, and the tenth spot goes to the numbers rather than the narrative.

97 points scored, 85 conceded from a team that has lost two in a row, most recently 22-17 at home to Jacksonville. Four games, four results inside a score.

The case against: they are 2-2 and back at .500 for the second straight season at this point. A +12 differential is the thinnest margin in this top ten by some distance, and it is here because the teams below have worse.

The Record That Does Not Survive Contact

Cleveland Browns: 3-1, point differential of minus 14.

They are top of the AFC North. They have been outscored by fourteen points: 81 scored, 95 conceded.

Three straight wins, most recently 27-24 over Pittsburgh, and three wins as an underdog for the first time since 2021. That is a genuine skill, and it is also exactly how a losing differential and a winning record coexist: narrow wins stacked on one heavy defeat.

Cleveland have not scored more than 27 points in any game. Winning low-scoring football works until it meets an offence that can pull away. They are the clearest regression candidate in the league, and they are not in our top fifteen.

The Bottom

Miami Dolphins (0-4, -55). The worst differential in football: 46 points scored in four games, and De’Von Achane gone for the year.

Los Angeles Chargers (0-4, -39). An offensive line that has not held up once. This is not an overreaction; the season is effectively over in October.

Washington Commanders (1-3, -34). Beat Seattle without Jayden Daniels, then lost 30-13 to Indianapolis in London.

Green Bay Packers (2-2, -32). A winning-adjacent record and the fourth-worst differential in the league. Two offensive line starters were missing when Atlanta put 35 on them at Lambeau.

Arizona Cardinals (1-3, -30), Tennessee Titans (0-4, -28), Houston Texans (0-4, -25). Houston are the cruellest of the three: four defeats by a combined eighteen points, including 34-30 at home as favourites to a Dallas team that had just lost in Rio.

What Thursday Night Actually Told Us

Dallas opened as 3.5-point favourites and closed laying 10, a move driven entirely by Baker Mayfield’s dislocated thumb and a rookie starting in his place.

Jalon Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards and a touchdown, a 110.2 passer rating, and won his first NFL game. Bucky Irving ran 21 times for a career-best 165 yards and scored twice. Tampa Bay outscored Dallas 17-0 in the third quarter.

Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards and duas interceptações, the second a carom off Jake Ferguson’s hands with 1:16 left. Dallas also failed on fourth-and-goal from the one with 8:36 remaining.

We flagged that line move as the biggest of the week. We did not say it had gone too far. A six-and-a-half-point swing on a quarterback injury was the market overcorrecting, and the honest lesson is that naming a move is not the same as judging it.

The Four Things That Matter at the Quarter Mark

The three best teams in football are San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Kansas City, and only two of them are undefeated.

Minnesota’s 4-0 is the softest record in the league. One offensive touchdown since Week 1 is not a foundation, however good the defence and the kicking.

Chicago at +47 with three quarterbacks is the most underrated team in the league, and Cleveland at 3-1 with -14 is the most overrated.

And last year’s hierarchy is gone. The returning playoff field is 30-26, the worst in fifteen years. Five teams are winless, a 125-1 team is 3-1, and a 0-4 team just won in Dallas as a ten-point dog with a rookie at quarterback. Four weeks is a small sample. It is large enough to stop deferring to August.