MLB MVP Race: New Favorites Emerging

Last Updated on Agosto 13, 2026 9:26 pm by Erwin Noguera

A few weeks ago, Shohei Ohtani was -1500 to win a third consecutive MLB National League MVP. He is now around -110, level with a 24-year-old centre fielder from Chicago.

In the American League, Yordan Alvarez has gone the other direction. He was -165 two weeks ago. He is now -1500.

Both races have been rewritten in the space of a fortnight, and in both cases the reasons are specific and worth understanding.

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The National League: Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Caught Him

The most dramatic swing in either league.

Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads all of Major League Baseball with 7.5 WAR, and it is not close. Only two other players in the sport have cleared 6.0 this season: Ohtani himself and Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez.

The offensive numbers are close enough to make the rest of the argument decisive. Crow-Armstrong has the same number of home runs as Ohtani. His .931 OPS trails Ohtani’s by six points. Six.

Over the last week, he has hit .345 with an OPS well above 1.000, and the Cubs swept the Dodgers in a series where he went 6-for-13 with two homers and five RBIs. Beating the man you are chasing, in a head-to-head series, in front of voters, is the most valuable thing a prospect can do in August.

Going back further, since Memorial Day, he has led the Major Leagues in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wRC+, and fWAR.

The Argument That Decides It

Here is why Crow-Armstrong has taken the lead, and it has nothing to do with hitting.

He is arguably the best defensive player in baseball. He leads the league in outs above average and in fielding run value. That is not a tiebreaker; it is the entire gap between two hitters producing at nearly identical rates.

Shohei Ohtani has not pitched in several weeks and has spent this season as a designated hitter while rehabbing his knee. Take away the pitching, and the two-way argument disappears; what remains is a DH against a Gold Glove-calibre centre fielder with the same power output.

That is how a 7.5 WAR happens. Crow-Armstrong is accumulating value in a phase of the game Ohtani currently contributes nothing to.

Ohtani’s Path Back

None of this means Ohtani loses.

He has been the best player in baseball for years, and the voters know it. He was 7-for-38 with no home runs immediately after the All-Star break, which is the stretch that opened the door, but a hot September closes it again quickly.

The bigger variable is the mound. Ohtani is still working back before returning to pitching, and the Dodgers have every reason to be patient with a rotation that just added Tarik Skubal. If he does return and contributes meaningful innings down the stretch, the two-way case reasserts itself immediately and the WAR gap narrows fast.

If he does not pitch again this season, he is a designated hitter in an MVP race against the best defender in the sport.

The American League: Yordan Alvarez Has Run Away With It

The AL race is effectively over, and the numbers explain why.

Alvarez leads the American League in batting average (.329), home runs (35), hits (136), RBIs (85), on-base percentage (.442), slugging percentage (.640), and OPS (1.083).

Seven categories. Simultaneously.

That is a Triple Crown pace with the rate statistics attached, and it is why his odds collapsed from -165 to -1500 inside two weeks. There is no argument to be made against a player leading every meaningful offensive category in his league.

Houston’s own season complicates the narrative slightly; the Astros were widely criticised for a passive trade deadline that added little around him. Alvarez is producing at an MVP level on a team that did not give him help. Historically, voters have been willing to overlook that when the individual case is this overwhelming.

The Chasers

Junior Caminero (+700) is the only realistic threat, and the Rays’ position in the standings gives his candidacy a platform. Tampa Bay leads the American League and added Freddy Peralta at the deadline, which keeps him visible through September.

Ben Rice (+2700) e Bobby Witt Jr. (+6500) are longshots at prices that reflect how far ahead Alvarez is rather than any deficiency in their seasons.

The Absence That Changed Everything

There will be a new American League MVP this year, and that is guaranteed.

Aaron Judge, the two-time defending winner, has battled injuries all season. His absence removed the presumptive favourite from the race before it started and created the vacuum Alvarez has filled.

It has also shaped New York’s entire year. The Yankees added Luis García Jr. and Heliot Ramos at the deadline specifically to compensate for a lineup missing its best player, and they still did not address catcher or the bullpen.

What Actually Decides Both Races

In the National League, it comes down to whether Ohtani pitches again. If he returns to the mound and throws meaningful innings in September, the two-way value that made him a -1500 favourite comes back, and he probably wins. If he finishes the season as a designated hitter, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive value and 7.5 WAR are extremely difficult to argue against.

The Cubs also hold the top National League Wild Card spot. Team success matters to voters, and Chicago being in the postseason picture strengthens his case considerably.

In the American League, it comes down to whether Alvarez stays healthy. At -1500 with a seven-category lead, nothing short of an injury changes the outcome.

The value bet: Crow-Armstrong at around -110. A player leading all of baseball in WAR by a wide margin, who is the best defender in the sport and separated by six points of OPS from the game’s biggest name, should not be a coin flip. The market is still pricing in Ohtani’s reputation rather than his 2026 contribution.

Roughly six weeks remain. Both favourites are new. One of them was not even in the conversation in June.