Bahia vs. Fluminense Betting Odds and Free Picks

Last Updated on Agosto 6, 2025 12:33 pm by Erwin Noguera

Matchday 19 of the Brasileirão features one of the surprise teams of the season, Bahia, hosting Fluminense in a key clash for the top of the table.

Bahia has been having an excellent campaign, but they’re coming off a disappointing scoreless draw against bottom-of-the-table Sport Recife, missing a golden opportunity to gain ground.

Fluminense, on the other hand, managed to snap a poor run of form with a 1–0 win over Grêmio, giving them a much-needed boost heading into this important matchup.

Bahia vs. Fluminense Betting Odds and Info

Por que apostar na Bahia?

No one expected Bahia to be sitting in fourth place at the halfway point of the Brasileirão. They have 29 points from eight wins, five draws, and three losses, trailing Flamengo by eight points with a game in hand.

They’re currently on a six-match unbeaten run with four wins, though two of their last three games ended in draws—both against relegation-threatened teams—indicating a slight dip in form. Most recently, they were held to a scoreless draw by bottom-placed Sport, who had only five points in the tournament.

Bahia has scored 20 goals, the fewest among the top six teams, but their defensive record stands out—they’ve only conceded 13 goals, showcasing a solid backline.

At home, they remain unbeaten. After drawing their first two home games, they went on to win six straight. Their most recent home win was also their only one by more than a single goal—a 3–0 victory over Juventude.

Injury-wise, they’ll be without defender Kanu and midfielder Erick.

Por que apostar no Fluminense?

Fluminense had been enjoying a strong season, but their form dipped significantly after the Club World Cup, especially following the departure of Jhon Arias to Wolverhampton. They currently sit in ninth place with 23 points, coming from seven wins, two draws, and seven losses.

They were on a terrible run, suffering four straight defeats, but finally managed to snap the streak with a 1–0 win over Grêmio thanks to a goal from Everaldo. It was their first league victory since the Club World Cup. However, a few days earlier, they had also beaten Internacional 1-2 in the Copa do Brasil, with Everaldo scoring both goals.

The Tricolor is the only team in the top 11 with a negative goal difference—18 goals scored and 20 conceded. Their away form has been poor, with just two wins, one draw, and five losses on the road.

Injury-wise, Ignácio is out, while Gabriel Fuentes is doubtful. The good news for head coach Renato Portaluppi is the return of Juan Freytes and Facundo Bernal, who are back from suspension.

Final Betting Analysis: Bahia vs. Fluminense

Fluminense finally broke their losing streak, and while Bahia couldn’t get past the last-placed team in the standings, they’ve had an almost perfect season at home. Meanwhile, the Tricolor has struggled on the road. We believe the home side will come out on top.

As probabilidades em Troca de Gambila favor Bahia, with their Moneyline at +102, while Fluminense is at +315, and a draw is listed at +228.

The last time these teams met was on August 4, 2024, when Fluminense won 1–0 thanks to a goal from Kauã Elias. However, the last time they played at Arena Fonte Nova was on April 16, 2024, with Bahia winning 2–1. Rogério Ceni’s side has now won three straight home matches against the Flu.

Go for a win for Bahia. If you bet $100 at +102, you will gain $102 for a total payout of $202.

Bahia vs. Fluminense Betting Pick: Bahia