Premier League: As decepções da temporada até agora

Last Updated on Outubro 26, 2026 5:27 pm by Erwin Noguera

Manchester United were priced at 1/2 for a top four finish in the Premier League before a ball was kicked. That is odds-on, a two-in-three chance. They are sixteenth with one win out of eight.

Liverpool was 4/9 for the same thing, a shorter price still. They are fourth, and they have scored eleven goals in eight matches, fewer than anybody else in the top five.

Those were the two clubs the market treated as near certainties. One of them is in the bottom five. The other is in the places and playing like a side that is not.

Eight matchdays in, with Manchester City having just lost their first match and Arsenal level on points at the top, here is who has fallen furthest from where they were expected to be, measured against the prices, not against the mood.

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The Table After Eight

Club W-D-L F-A GD Pts

1 Manchester City 7-0-1 20-9 +11 21
2 Arsenal 7-0-1 13-5 +8 21
3 Brighton 5-1-2 23-7 +16 16
4 Liverpool 4-3-1 11-8 +3 15
5 Chelsea 4-1-3 17-15 +2 13
6 Brentford 2-5-1 14-9 +5 11
7 Leeds United 2-5-1 9-6 +3 11
8 Newcastle United 3-2-3 12-14 -2 11
9 Aston Villa 3-2-3 9-12 -3 11
10 Hull City 2-4-2 9-8 +1 10
11 Everton 2-4-2 8-9 -1 10
12 Ipswich Town 3-1-4 12-16 -4 10
13 Bournemouth 2-3-3 12-13 -1 9
14 Tottenham Hotspur 2-3-3 8-10 -2 9
15 Fulham 2-2-4 8-10 -2 8
16 Manchester United 1-4-3 10-13 -3 7
17 Crystal Palace 2-1-5 9-19 -10 7
18 Nottingham Forest 1-3-4 6-10 -4 6
19 Coventry City 2-0-6 6-15 -9 6
20 Sunderland 1-2-5 6-14 -8 5

Manchester United: The Biggest Letdown in England

Pre-season: 7/1 for the title, 1/2 for a top-four place. Now: sixteenth, seven points, and 25/1 to win the league.

That top-four price is the one that matters.1/2 is odds-on, roughly a 67% implied chance of finishing in the Champions League places. The market has gone from treating it as the likely outcome to pricing the title at under 4%.

The record is the problem and the shape of it is worse.One win, four draws, three defeats. Ten scored, thirteen conceded.

Three clubs in this division have won a single match: Manchester United, Nottingham Forest, and Sunderland. The other two are eighteenth and twentieth.

Michael Carrick has been in permanent charge since January and is the favorite in the sack race on 6/4. Four draws in eight are not a collapse in the results column and it is a collapse in the points column: a club with United’s wage bill drawing half its matches is going nowhere slowly. Europe has not helped: they lost 2-0 at Atlético Madrid and sat thirteenth of thirty-six in the Champions League league phase.

Liverpool: Fourth, and Nobody Is Convinced

Pre-season: 5/1 for the title, 4/9 for the top four, the shortest top four price in the market. Now: fourth on fifteen points and drifted from 11/2 to 14/1 for the title.

They are in the places. That is the confusing part.Four wins, three draws, one defeat is a perfectly respectable start, and only Manchester City and Arsenal have lost fewer.

And then there is the attack.Eleven goals in eight matches. Manchester City has twenty. Brighton has twenty-three. Liverpool scored fewer than anybody else in the top five and only two more than Leeds, who are seventh.

Three draws from a side with this squad is where the points have gone, and the market has read it as a ceiling rather than a slow start. Dropping from 11/2 to 14/1 while sitting fourth is the clearest statement of no confidence on the board.

Andoni Iraola is one of nine new managers this season and inherited a club that finished fifth. Fourth is an improvement in that. It does not look like one.

Aston Villa: Two Teams in One Season

Pre-season: 5/2 for a top-four place, roughly 29%. Now: ninth, eleven points, minus three.

Nine goals in eight domestic matches. Six clubs in the division have scored fewer, and three of those are in the bottom three.

And then the other competition.Villa is third in the Champions League league phase with a plus-seven goal difference, having won 3-2 at Club Brugge and beaten Fenerbahçe 6-0, the largest winning margin anywhere in the competition at that stage.

Nine goals in eight league games. Nine goals in two European ones.

That is not a slump; it is a split personality, and no club performing that differently in two competitions stays that way. The question is which version survives.

Tottenham: 8/1 for the Top Four, 150/1 for the Title

Fourteenth on nine points. Two wins, three draws, three defeats. Eight goals in eight matches.

Roberto De Zerbi arrived in March, had a full summer, and is 5/1 in the sack race.Spurs’ title price is now 150/1: an implied chance of under 1%.

The honest note is that 8/1 for the top four was never a strong expectation (around 11%), so the fall is smaller than United’s or Liverpool’s in probability terms. It is the raw position that makes it a letdown: fourteenth, with the joint-lowest scoring record of any club outside the bottom four.

Newcastle: The Quietest Disappointment

Pre-season: 7/1 for a top-four place. Now: eighth on eleven points with a minus-two goal difference.

Eighth is not a crisis, and that is exactly why nobody is talking about it.Twelve scored, fourteen conceded, one of only two clubs in the top nine being outscored by its opponents, alongside Aston Villa immediately below them.

Matthias Jaissle was appointed on 5 August after Eddie Howe’s departure, which made Newcastle the last club in the league to settle on a permanent head coach. He does not appear on the sack boards, and he arrives at the latest of anyone, which buys him time. Fourteen conceded in eight will stop buying it.

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest: The Opposite Problems

Crystal Palace are seventeenth with nineteen goals conceded, the worst defensive record in the Premier League by three. Ipswich are next at sixteen. Two wins, one draw, five defeats, and a minus-ten goal difference.

Pierre Sage is one of the nine summer appointments and is listed between 5/1 and 8/1 in the sack race, which, on these numbers, is generous to everybody above him.

Nottingham Forest has the inverse profile.Six goals in eight matches (joint-lowest in the division with Coventry and Sunderland) and only ten conceded, better than seven of the seventeen clubs above them.

Oliver Glasner’s price was cut from 10/1 to 6/1 after a defeat at Palace.This is a side that cannot score rather than one that cannot defend, which is easier to diagnose and harder to fix in October.

Who Is Not a Letdown

Brighton is the counterweight to all of it.Twenty-three goals scored, seven conceded, a plus-sixteen goal difference (the best in the division by five), and they are third. No club has better underlying numbers and two sides sit above them.

Leeds United are seventh at eleven points with five draws from eight, which for a promoted club is a solid first act, and Hull City are tenth with a positive goal difference.Brentford are sixth, having lost once.

And Chelsea is fifth under Xabi Alonso, having been priced at 11/10 for the top four after finishing tenth last season. Seventeen goals scored and fifteen conceded is not pretty. It is also an improvement on where they were.

O veredicto

Measured in probability rather than in position, Manchester United are the letdown of the season.A 1/2 top-four price is the market telling you something is likelier than not. They are sixteenth, with as many wins as the clubs in eighteenth and twentieth.

Liverpool is the most interesting case because the table hides it.Fourth place and eleven goals in eight matches do not belong to the same team, and the drift from 11/2 to 14/1 says the market believes the goals, not the position.

Aston Villa are the strangest. Ninth and minus three at home, third and plus seven in Europe.

And Crystal Palace are the ones the sack market has not caught up with: the worst defense in the division, seventeenth place, and a manager priced behind three others.

Manchester City lost their first match this weekend, and Arsenal drew level on twenty-one points.For everyone below them, the season’s first quarter has already answered a question most clubs were hoping to leave open until Christmas.

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