UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier - Odds e Palpites

Última atualização em 17 de julho de 2025 às 20h23 por Erwin Noguera

The UFC brings us a high-caliber card as we take the trip to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans this Saturday, where the 3rd fight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier will take place, with the BMF belt on the line for everyone to enjoy.

We expect the main event fight to go to the last rounds with these two going at it, both with the respect from their previous bouts, and a message to send with the BMF Title on the line.

The co-main surprisingly sees Paulo Costa in it, and we get Roman Kolyov coming in what could be an interesting middleweight clash, which comes right after the Trailblazer faces Daniel Rodriguez in the cage.

The event is a stacked card, 14 fights from start to finish, and a lot of known names in the 9 Prelims and the five main fight card of a pretty exciting event.

No Troca de Gambila, você pode verificar todos os UFC/MMA apostas, a análise de cada lutador e a aposta final que você pode fazer nessas lutas.

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Fight Card Odds and Info

UFC 318: Max Holloway x Dustin Poirier

Por que apostar em Max Holloway?

Hollowayis making a move back to 155 lbs. This time, he’s filling out with muscles, and we believe it’s a great move because he belongs at 155.

Holloway’s boxing has always been a little better than Poirier’s, and perhaps more so now because Poirier has taken a lot of damage in the last two years, making him a bit susceptible to getting hurt.

He’s a stand-and-bang fighter. He thrives in the same environment that Holloway thrives in. We know that Holloway himself is coming off a KO loss. However, a singular KO loss is not as detrimental to brain health and KO susceptibility as numerous heavy strikes that he received when he fought Benoit Saint-Denis, Michael Chandler, and Justin Gaethje.

We believe we’re going to see Poirier get hurt a fair bit more than Holloway. Alongside that, Holloway is coming off his first KO loss in his career, and that can perhaps change a few things stylistically for Holloway.

Holloway can withstand being punched, but now that he’s moving up to 155lbs permanently, we can expect a more intelligent boxing defense from him, or we could get a classic Holloway throwing fists without holding back.

Por que apostar em Dustin Poirier?

Poirier is a much more well-rounded fighter than Holloway, so expect to see a lot more leg kicks, perhaps some wild attacks due to this being his final fight. Ultimately, we don’t expect to see Poirier fight any differently than he’s used to.

What we expect from Poirier is gorgeous boxing, especially his amazing left hook, and some dangerous leg kicks, as those have been key to his victories in the past. In terms of grappling, it’s hard to ignore that he’s a solid BJJ fighter when the fight hits the mat, but we are very doubtful that he will want to take this fight to the ground in front of his hometown crowd.

Final Betting Analysis: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

Expect these two warriors to come out and put on a performance that will put them in the history books of combat sports.

We think Holloway will finally best Poirier this time around because of the accumulated damage that Poirier has received.

UFC 318: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Por que apostar em Paulo Costa?

Costa needs no introduction. He has been in some iconic fights in the last six years, from his war against Romero to his weight miss against Marvin Vettori.

Paulo Costa is a powerful and pressure-heavy striker, although his defense is questionable as he absorbs more than he throws. Costa’s takedown accuracy could allow him to shift the fight to the mat and exploit his submission upside if the stand-up battle doesn’t go his way.

Why Bet on Roman Kopylov?

Kopylov has been a fun fighter to watch. His kickboxing isn’t fascinating or unique, but it’s clean and sharp, and we can see him landing the body kick in this fight time after time.

Kopylov é bom em lançar aquele chute no corpo e então se mover lateralmente para outro ângulo para atacar. Achamos que ele pode se cansar nos rounds finais devido ao movimento lateral constante e coisas assim, mas acreditamos que quanto mais ele marcar o corpo de Costa, menos agressivo ele será, mais suas mãos cairão e mais disponível o chute na cabeça se tornará.

Kopylov being on the back foot could be detrimental to him on the scorecards because it would seem that Costa is the more aggressive fighter. Still, Kopylov’s striking will be the main story in this fight.

Final Betting Analysis: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

We expect Costa to be walking down Kopylov in this fight with relentless pressure, but we wouldn’t say that he will win this fight with that alone, because even on the back foot, Kopylov is very good.

We expect Costa to throw leg kicks early and often to slow down Kopylov’s mobility. While we know he’s going to throw some hands, outside of a flush KO, we don’t see him winning against such a technician like Kopylov.

UFC 318: Kevin Holland x Daniel Rodriguez

Por que apostar em Kevin Holland?

Holland is coming off an anaconda choke submission win over Vicente Luque, whichsurprised us because we thought he was going to box all the way.

Kevin Holland has a substantial reach advantage of 8 inches. It will be a hard task for Rodriguez to fight around without using his kicks to shut down the boxing of Holland, but still, the speed and power of Holland is a fair few steps ahead of what Rodriguez can generate, despite Rodriguez having that “old man power”.

Por que apostar em Daniel Rodriguez?

On the other hand, Rodriguez is very much one of those mainstay fighters who have moments of greatness and also moments in which he doesn’t look so great.

Rodriguez tem muita força nas mãos, mas com uma desvantagem de 20 centímetros de alcance, a única maneira real de conseguir um golpe forte é por meio de uma colisão contra Holland, na qual ocorre uma troca violenta e o queixo de alguém é realmente testado.

Análise final das apostas de Kevin Holland x Daniel Rodriguez:

We believe we will see an immense output from Rodriguez from the second round onwards, compared to Holland, who is a theoretical 5-round high-pace fighter.

Holland, when he’s switched on, is an absolute juggernaut of a fighter, unstoppable and one of the best fighters we will see.

Infelizmente, tem sido difícil acompanhá-lo e prever suas performances, pois seu desempenho não tem sido consistente. Acreditamos que o veremos em alta velocidade no sábado.

UFC 318: Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull

Why Bet on Dan Ige?

Ige é fantástico como ninguém e mostrou a força que tem nas mãos. A principal vantagem de Dan Ige sobre Pitbull seria a trocação em pé. Seu boxe é de alto nível e ele carrega uma potência tão grande que pode testar o queixo do lutador de 38 anos.

Dan Ige pode mudar de posição para mascarar os golpes poderosos, indo de Canhoto para Ortodoxo para entrar no alcance e atacar as pernas, voltando para Canhoto para lançar aquele gancho especial.

Por que apostar em Patricio Pitbull?

Pitbull was getting torn to shreds when he fought Yair, and that doesn’t bode well when fighting someone like Ige. The writing is on the walls for this one, it seems.

Pitbull tem um caminho claro para a vitória aqui: lutar e se submeter. Para fazer qualquer coisa, porém, ele precisa penetrar o boxe extremamente afiado de Ige, o que não é uma tarefa fácil.

Análise Final de Apostas: Dan Ige x Patricio Pitbull

A única maneira de Pitbull combater qualquer coisa que Ige faça é lutando, e acreditamos que é exatamente isso que Pitbull tentará fazer neste fim de semana.

We’d argue that Ige could also find a submission, besides his regular paths to victory, especially a front headlock choke like a guillotine or a brabo.

Ainda assim, a idade não está do lado de Pitbull, e por mais que queiramos elogiá-lo bastante, o fator idade realmente influencia aqui. Por fim, acreditamos que Ige já lutou contra competidores muito melhores, e isso também influencia nesta partida.

UFC 318: Michael Johnson x Daniel Zellhuber

Por que apostar em Michael Johnson x Daniel Zellhuber?

Johnson certamente não parece o mesmo de antes nos últimos anos, e sabemos que ele vem de uma fantástica vitória por nocaute contra Ottman. No entanto, Ottman está mais unidimensional, e Johnson opera com golpes eficientes.

Johnson ainda possui excelentes instintos de boxe, principalmente nos primeiros rounds de uma luta. No entanto, considerando que Zellhuber enfrentou uma dura batalha contra Ribovics e se recuperou dela competitivamente, é difícil dizer se Johnson consegue manter esse nível de talento.

Por que apostar em Daniel Zellhuber?

Aos 26 anos, o promissor lutador mexicano traz juventude, alcance e ferramentas técnicas de ataque para o octógono, com um arsenal pesado de kickboxing e contra-ataques agressivos.

Zellhuber tem uma boa base defensiva, e isso será fundamental para garantir o sucesso no segundo e terceiro rounds. Suspeitamos que Johnson será muito perigoso no primeiro round, tentando furar a guarda de Zellhuber.

O boxe de Zellhuber vai ficar ótimo, já que ele consegue lutar defensiva e ofensivamente, mantendo a segurança com uma defesa alta e o queixo encolhido. Tudo isso dificultará que Johnson tente acertar o queixo de Zellhuber, e achamos que isso diminui as chances de Johnson vencer.

Análise Final das Apostas: Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber

Acreditamos que Zellhuber será demais para o lutador veterano. Esperamos que Johnson lute um pouco, mas não sabemos se será por desespero ou por um plano de jogo bem elaborado.

Essa é a velha guarda sendo passada para a nova guarda, e achamos que Zellhuber vai conseguir fazer isso.

UFC 318: Kyler Phillips x Vinicius Oliveira

Por que apostar em Kyler Phillips?

Kyler Phillips é um lutador completo, com um wrestling sólido e um ótimo Jiu-Jitsu. No entanto, Oliveira já enfrentou e derrotou lutadores como Ricky Simon e Said Nurmagomedov. Essa pode ser a razão pela qual Phillips é apresentado como o azarão nesta luta.

A única coisa que mais nos preocupa é o Phillips ser muito reservado com o cardio. Quando ele lutou contra o Rob Font, vimos que ele ficou sem gás, o que geralmente leva a duas coisas na próxima luta de um lutador: ou ele treinou o cardio como foco principal do seu treinamento ou luta de forma reservada, e isso só vai dar a Oliveira mais tempo para acertar seus ataques e causar dano.

Por que apostar em Vinicius Oliveira?

Oliveira é realmente especial. Ele surgiu do nada com uma bela vitória por nocaute no DWCS, e então simplesmente arrasou com a concorrência sem praticamente nenhuma resistência.

Oliveira é muito completo; seus golpes podem não ser muito técnicos, mas são imprevisíveis, e isso se deve principalmente à distância em que ele ataca e à postura que ele adota, mãos baixas e a uma distância relativamente segura, onde ele pode contra-atacar efetivamente, e pode fintar para chegar ao alcance de forma eficaz.

Análise Final das Apostas: Kyler Phillips x Vinicius Oliveira

Oliveira é particularmente difícil de interpretar como analista. É quase impossível desvendá-lo, e só podemos descrevê-lo como alguém que faz freestyle no cage. E isso pode ser difícil de combater, e achamos que Phillips vai descobrir isso depois do primeiro round.

UFC 318: Marvin Vettori x Brendan Allen

Why Bet on Marvin Vettori?

Vettori é um caso interessante para a categoria dos médios. Ele tem se destacado em algumas das lutas mais acirradas do UFC nos últimos anos, com lutas épicas contra nomes como Paulo Costa, Jack Hermansson e Jared Cannonier. Ele já passou por algumas batalhas intensas e sempre lutou com a mesma garra nos rounds finais.

Nossa menor preocupação com Vettori não é sua trocação, sua potência ou seu cardio. É sua defesa de quedas, e considerando que a principal forma de Allen vencer suas lutas é derrubar e finalizar seus oponentes, acreditamos que Vettori ou será sufocado por sua potência devido à ameaça de queda, ou cairá na armadilha de lançar muito pesado, o que abre espaço para uma mudança de nível em relação a Allen.

Por que apostar em Brendan Allen?

Allen vem de duas derrotas consecutivas para Imavov e Hernandez. Em ambas as lutas, encontramos um padrão perceptível: quando Allen se sente desconfortável ou tem dificuldade para iniciar suas tentativas de queda, ele tende a ficar estagnado e inseguro sobre como sair da situação.

Acreditamos que logo no início veremos qual será seu plano de jogo e, se ele conseguir levar Vettori ao chão, poderemos muito bem ter uma surpresa aqui, mas se, como prevemos, Vettori entrar com tudo e se sair bem em pé, bloqueando as quedas e avançando sobre Allen.

Análise Final das Apostas: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen

Esperamos que Vettori venha com pura agressividade. Ele está em uma sequência de derrotas e costumava ser uma ameaça perigosa para o alto escalão da divisão, então ele vê esta luta como uma grande oportunidade de se recuperar e reiniciar sua jornada como desafiante.

Isso será demais para um Allen que começa devagar.

UFC 318: Francisco Prado x Nikolay Veretennikov

Why Bet on Francisco Prado?

Prado é um atacante razoavelmente decente, que às vezes é um pouco lento, mas tem muito poder nas mãos e não tem medo de deixar seus oponentes saberem disso logo no começo.

O estilo de Prado é muito explosivo; ele tende a esperar um pouco, movendo-se para frente e para trás, às vezes lateralmente, antes de avançar para uma série de golpes pesados e perigosos.

Às vezes, ele pode parecer desleixado, mas compensa com seu poder e capacidade de aumentar a agressividade extremamente rápido.

Por que apostar em Nikolay Veretennikov?

Veretennikov é certamente um personagem interessante para se falar, porque ele é decente quando solta as mãos, mas às vezes fica muito parado e não solta as mãos, e isso é bem decepcionante, porque ele pode ser muito astuto quando fica um pouco agressivo.

Our concern is that Veretennikov tends to back up to the cage fence far too quickly, giving his opponents too much time to start the action. He’s a bit reactionary and just doesn’t seem as active in the cage as Prado is.

Final Betting Analysis: Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

Prado não é de forma alguma um striker limpo; ele pode carregar e balançar e ser tão legível quanto um outdoor, mas quando ele cai e diminui a diferença para o oponente lutar no pocket, ele é perigoso.

We think he can knock out Veretennikov this weekend if he explodes early with a fresh tank of gas.

UFC 318: Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin

Por que apostar em Ateba Gautier?

Gautier is coming off an explosive finish over Jose Medina, nothing but dangerous power and clean technique.

Now, Gautier is a patient fighter; he likes to gauge the range before he strikes, and he’s likely to do that this weekend through jabs. He has some fantastic jabs, and his striking fundamentals are solid, and you can tell just by looking at him that he carries some raw natural power.

Por que apostar em Robert Valentin?

Valentin is 0-2 in the UFC and is likely to continue that trend if he isn’t careful. Now, the good news for Valentin is that he never got knocked out that second time when he fought Torrez Finney.

A má notícia é que ele não demonstrou absolutamente nada de promissor no UFC até agora, além de alguns pontos positivos durante sua luta contra Finney, onde demonstrou boa capacidade de trocação.

Final Betting Analysis: Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin

We think Valentin is going to be backed up to the cage in a relatively short time and be stuck in the same position that Finney had him in before Finney started wrestling.

We believe that Valentin might have shown some decent strikes, but it won’t take long for Guatier’s power to take effect and Valentin to retreat or try to gain space circling around the octagon.

UFC 318: Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov

Why Bet on Adam Fugitt?

Fugitt is a hard fighter to read because, on one hand, he is very well-rounded and can be a dangerous opponent. However, he looked extremely slow when he fought Josh Quinlan, and we can’t imagine Fugitt being that effective against a fast starter like Dulatov.

The problem that Fugitt has, or at least the thing that we notice that Dulatov may expose is that Fugitt is barely defensively sound, he stands in front of his opponent, eating whatever shots he has only to return fire at half the speed he received strikes at, it’s a very sloppy style and we don’t think that Fugitt is going to have a lot of success early on against Dulatov.

Why Bet on Islam Dulatov?

Dulatov is coming into this fight with a gorgeous record behind him of 11-1, and the one thing that jumped out at me was his finish rate; he is predominantly a first-round finisher, and when you watch his fights, it’s clear that he is as high-paced as anyone can get.

We have huge concerns about his cardio because fighting at the pace that he does will drain anyone, and we don’t think it’s a sustainable way to fight, especially if Dulatov chases a finish early on but doesn’t succeed.

Final Betting Analysis: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

Now, the good news is that Fugitt has one hell of a chin, and he can be quite durable and adapts well to his opponent, but he will be playing catch-up if he survives the first round, as we think Dulatov is going to push the pedal to the metal and fight at a nasty pace.

UFC 318: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

Why Bet on Jimmy Crute?

Crute, when he’s switched on and highly focused, is an absolute wrecking ball. He is great at throwing out kicks and boxing combinations, feeling the flow very early on feet, but where he does his best work is on the ground.

The one thing to keep an eye on is his Kimura attack. It seems to be his signature submission to chase, and if he doesn’t go for that, he’s more than happy to stay in top control, landing thunderous ground-and-pounds, giving his opponent very little space to move around.

The unfortunate thing about Crute is that when he is transformed into the wrecking ball, he has about 1.5 rounds of cardio before his defense falls out the window, and he is no longer able to protect himself.

Why Bet on Marchin Prachnio?

Prachnio is coming off an arm triangle submission loss against Modestas Bukauskas, and we think the major surprise factor was that Bukauskas was going for a submission, which certainly would have thrown Prachnio off a fair bit!

Now, Prachnio is a technician on the feet;his karate-style stance and movement are a puzzle for all of his opponents to figure out, making it very hazardous to crash in with hopes that your strikes land or your takedown lands.It’s pretty possible that Prachnio could use his lead leg as a defensive barrier, attacking Crute’s legs and then circling away, or side kicking to the body or head as Crute gets close.

Final Betting Analysis: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

We expect Crute to look to get the fight to the ground as soon as possible to steal the first round and thus secure a less stressful decision win if he can play the tit for tat game against Prachnio.

We are still concerned that Prachnio’s takedown defense isn’t par with Crute’s takedown offense stats, and we think that Prachnio will eventually get taken down, so Crute isn’t walking away from this without looking like he’s gone through a tumble dryer.

UFC 318: Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski

Why Bet on Ryan Spann?

Spann is certainly someone who deserves a layup, especially over someone like Brzeski, who is barely a UFC-level fighter.

Spann has always been one of those “kill or be killed” kind of Heavyweights who has a very fragile chin because he doesn’t even need to be hit heavily for him to feel hurt or stunned by it.

Now, Spann himself is a bit of a heavy hitter, and that might make him a threat, but he doesn’t hit accurately enough to show that power.

However, we expect Spann’s boxing to show itself here against Brzeski.

Por que apostar em Łukasz Brzeski?

Brzeski has lost every single one of his UFC fights except for one against Valter Walker, and it was perhaps one of the slower fights of Walker’s during his chaotic UFC career so far.

Brzeski is almost always a fighter that you should not bet on; he is typically an instant fade for us, and that’s because, whilst he is somewhat well-rounded and a decent fighter, the moment his chin gets touched by anything resembling a strong strike, he gets rocked and hurt badly.

Final Betting Analysis: Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski

We suppose there are some similarities between Spann and Brzeski in that regard, but still, we think that Spann is marginally the tougher one to put away.

And as such, the one who will be taking the victory in this clash.

UFC 318: Bruno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

Why Bet on Bruno Ferreira?

Ferreira is coming off a fantastic arm-bar submission win over Armen Petrosyan. For the most part, Ferreira looked like a bully, throwing his weight with every punch, landing heavy takedowns, and just bullrushing through Armen.

Ferreira has almost always been a first-round finisher, so there’s no real surprise that he hits exceptionally hard and has very little offensive technique to back up his power; he’s just a human wrecking ball.

The great thing about Ferreira regarding this fight is that McVey probably hasn’t even been punched by someone like Ferreira, let alone faced someone who has so much power and can emanate that power through forward aggression and ferocious, singular punches.

Por que apostar em Jackson McVey?

McVey is coming off back-to-back weight cuts. He came in originally as a replacement fighter already, so his “qualifications” to be a UFC fighter are already a bit suspicious.

McVey has a longer reach, andwe will likely see him throw some jabs and one-twos down the line. However, all of that could be easily negated by Ferreira’s bomb-throwing punches.

Final Betting Analysis: Bruno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

We are not completely counting out McVey here. We are giving him a slight chance to win if he keeps this immaculate with no mistakes in distance management, but yeah.

We think this is Ferreira’s fight to win. His power should be enough to get him through.

UFC 318: Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari

Por que apostar em Carli Judice?

Judice is coming off a fantastic head-kick knockout against Duben, and we have to say we were intrigued by Judice’s fight against Fernandes, but after that knockout win, we are a little bit biased.

The main thing we genuinely like about Judice is her striking; she is a fantastic fighter and uses her kicks effectively after being set up with some strong boxing combinations at very high speeds.

Why Bet on Nicolle Caliari?

Caliari has the perfect style to counter Judice; she is a grappler and someone who has the incentive in this fight to take the fight to the ground, not only to negate the kicking danger of Judice, but also, due to the height and reach disadvantage, it’s kind of her only way to win this fight.

We don’t know how good Judice’s takedown defense is or her grappling defense, but we suspect that a takedown from Caliari will answer those questions for us.

Final Betting Analysis: Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari

Não podemos ver Caliari mudando muito seu estilo ou plano de jogo neste fim de semana quando enfrentar Judice, então esperamos que ela tente cronometrar uma queda após um chute, porque se ela se aproximar sem nenhuma preparação ou contra-ataque adequado, ela será destruída pelas combinações rápidas de boxe de Judice.

Holloway vs. Poirier Palpite de aposta: Max Holloway

Costa vs. Kopylov Palpite de aposta: Roman Kopylov

Holanda x Rodriguez Palpite de aposta: Kevin Holland

Ige vs. Pitbull Palpite de aposta: Dan Ige

Johnson vs. Zellhuber Palpite de aposta: Daniel Zellhuber

Phillips vs. Oliveira Palpite de aposta: Vinícius Oliveira

Vettori vs. Allen Palpite de aposta: Martin Vettori

Prado vs. Veretennikov Palpite de aposta: Francisco Prado

Gautier vs. Valentin Palpite de aposta: Ateba Gautier

Fugitt vs. Dulatov Palpite de aposta: Islam Dulatov

Crute vs. Prachnio Palpite de aposta: Jimmy Crute

Spann vs. Brzeski Palpite de aposta: Ryan Spann

Ferreira vs. McVey Palpite de aposta: Bruna Ferreira

Judice vs. Caliari Palpite de aposta: Carli Judice