UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Fight Card Odds and Picks

Last Updated on Outubro 9, 2025 12:54 pm by Erwin Noguera

The Octagon returns to Rio for a thrilling lightweight showdown as Charles Oliveira faces Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes UFC Fight Night.

In addition to the home fighters featured in the main events, we have a Brazilian representative in each of the 13 fights on the card. The first preliminary bout of the night will showcase two local fighters facing off against each other.

Talking about that main event, we’ll get a fun fight when the loved former champion and local representative, Charles Oliveira, comes to fight an exciting 5-round clash against Mateusz Gamrot, to see if he has what it takes to challenge for the belt.

The co-main event sees the former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, who continues his run in the bantamweight division, and now faces a dangerous Montel Jackson.

With 13 fights featuring national talent, we are eager to see how excited the Brazilian crowd will be. Their passion is contagious, and we hope that viewers at home will begin to feel the excitement as the fights progress in this outstanding fight night event.

No Troca de Gambila, você pode verificar todos os UFC/MMA apostas, a análise de cada lutador e a aposta final que você pode fazer nessas lutas.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Fight Card Odds and Informações

Noite de Luta do UFC: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Por que apostar em Charles Oliveira?

Oliveira is coming off a brutal loss via knockout against Ilia Topuria four months ago. His chances of getting knocked out in this fight are rather slim since Gamrot isn’t exactly a striker, and he is shorter in reach compared to Oliveira.

Now, the downside to Oliveira is that he has quite terrible takedown defense, given that he’s a BJJ-based fighter. Pulling guard against Gamrot is a dangerous game to play, considering Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC at the moment, so we believe the route to victory for Oliveira is on the feet.

Por que apostar em Mateusz Gamrot?

Gamrot has a clear path to victory: he needs to wrestle Oliveira to make him exhausted. However, there is a recurring issue whenever Gamrot faces opponents with good punching power—he tends to get rocked and stunned early in his fights. While he manages to survive these knockdowns, his vulnerability to them remains a significant concern.

If Gamrot can effectively implement his wrestling, he will likely be ahead on the scorecards, provided he can escape the guillotine choke that Oliveira will inevitably attempt. As long as Gamrot maintains top control, he should win the fight. However, he will likely be stood up four times during the match, which creates more opportunities for Oliveira to land his strikes.

Final Betting Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

While both men have clear paths to victory, Gamrot’s wrestling advantage gives him a slight edge in a five-round fight.

Oliveira’s explosiveness keeps him dangerous at all times, yet Gamrot’s ability to grind opponents and maintain control may prove decisive.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

Por que apostar em Deiveson Figueiredo?

Figgy is coming off a tough loss against Cory Sandhagen. To highlight how challenging that fight was for him, he struggled to walk out of the cage on his own after Sandhagen injured his knee and tore a ligament.

Fortunately, the ligament did not require surgery, but this injury raises concerns about Figgy’s confidence, especially at the age of 37. Such injuries can often signal the nearing end of a fighter’s career. Additionally, the fight took place five months ago, which is barely enough time to fully recover from a knee injury.

We know that Figgy is an absolute warrior in the octagon, known for throwing heavy strikes and being a physical challenge for anyone he faces. However, he is not invulnerable and comes into this fight significantly undersized compared to Jackson.

Por que apostar em Montel Jackson?

Jackson is coming off his most impressive win in his career with a decision win over the, at the time, undefeated Peruvian fighter Daniel Marcos, and boy was that fight an excellent display of beating Marcos to the punch as well as beating him to the ground too, as Jackson was able to adapt to everything Marcos did.

The problem we have with Jackson is that his striking defense is entirely reliant on moving back and retreating out of the way. That still makes us wonder if Jackson’s chin is good enough to absorb a clean overhand from Figgy, since Figgy would need to crash forward to cover that distance.

Final Betting Analysis: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

We think we’ll see Jackson pull ahead on the scorecards here; his length presents more of a concern for Figgy than Jackson’s well-roundedness, but we do expect Jackson to be looking better overall as he fights the still potentially “wounded” Figueiredo.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez

Por que apostar em Vicente Luque?

“The Silent Assassin” is a veteran in the welterweight division, known for his finishing instincts, striking power, and solid submission skills. He has 23-11-1 overall with 16 wins in the UFC. Before this fight, Luque was coming off a submission loss to Kevin Holland, but before that, he submitted Themba Gorimbo in just 52 seconds.

At 33years old, he is battling both ring rust and a tougher recent run (2-4 over his last six), but his experience and toughness make him dangerous, especially if he can force exchanges and stay active.

Por que apostar em Joel Alvarez?

Alvarez has been a formidable force throughout his career, often achieving finishes within the first two minutes in spectacular fashion. He is undoubtedly looking to continue that trend this weekend as he faces the tough but currently less durable Luque.

The most likely attack for Alvarez to land is a knee strike up the middle, as Luque will likely try to level change in an effort to turn the tide of the fight. If that doesn’t work, Alvarez’s teep kicks up the middle will not only rattle Luque’s chin but will also target his body, further draining his cardio. This strategy will keep Luque at kicking range, limiting his opportunities for level changes and discouraging him from attempting those moves frequently.

Final Betting Analysis: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez

The last thing that Alvarez wants is a tit for tat, and that’s probably what Luque perhaps wants, because if you take away the excitement from an exciting fighter, you neutralize what makes them, for the most part, great.

Still, Alvarez is younger, faster, longer, and a lot more dangerous than Luque, so we do think that Luque is fighting a bit of an uphill battle here, as we can’t see 2025 Luque being good enough to defeat such a dangerous opponent like Alvarez.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto

Por que apostar em Jhonata Diniz?

Jhonata Diniz enters this bout with a 0-1 record. He has a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai and has shown solid power, with 7 of his wins coming via KO/TKO.

His most recent win was a unanimous decision over Alvin Hines, showing he can go the distance and maintain composure. On the flip side, his only loss was a TKO vs. Marcin Tybura due to a doctor’s stoppage, which hints at vulnerability under sustained damage.

For Diniz to win, he’ll need to impose his striking, use his power to hurt Pinto early, and avoid being dragged into grappling if Pinto tries that route.

Por que apostar em Mário Pinto?

Pinto is definitely more mysterious, but that’s likely because he’s only had one fight in his UFC career. In that fight, he knocked out Lane just seconds after it started, leaving us with little information about him.

Pinto appears to be a bit trickier and more fluid on his feet compared to Diniz. However, we believe that both fighters are quite hittable. When you have two relatively chaotic heavyweights who are still untested, it’s likely to result in an explosive fight where someone eventually gets knocked out. That’s what we’re expecting to see.

Final Betting Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto

If things are going to go down to an early slugfest, our token is placed on Pinto because his 30-second KO shows that he has the power to send the opponent down on the first few swings.

We hope this is a short and intense fight, because we really don’t know what else to expect from these two.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli

Por que apostar em Ricardo Ramos?

Ricardo “Carcacinha” Ramos enters the bout with a wealth of UFC and pro experience. He holds a 17-7 record and competes at featherweight. Ramos trains under Team Alpha Male, fights orthodox, and brings a solid grappling base—7 of his wins are by submission—and respectable finishing ability (4 wins by KO/TKO).

To win, Ramos needs to use his experience to dictate tempo, avoid being drawn into risky ground exchanges early, and capitalize on opportunities when Ofli over-extends.

Why Bet on Kaan Ofli?

Ofli is coming off back-to-back losses against Naimov and Mairon Santos. His UFC outings show promise but also signs he’s still adjusting to the pace and danger of elite competition.

He didn’t win his TUF season, and he has not given any reason to stay. The only thing that we can expect is for him to be swinging hard, as he is backed into a corner in his fighting career.

Final Betting Analysis: Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli

If Ramos takes the fight to the ground, he should be able to maintain full control and win on the scorecards. However, his biggest concern is his striking defense. Given that Ofli is at a crucial point in his career, he is likely to come out swinging with everything he has.

We believe Ramos will be able to work his way through and get an early sub.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell

Por que apostar em Lucas Almeida?

Almeida is a well-rounded fighter who has experienced a rather rocky career in the UFC thus far. His notable victories have come against decent, but not particularly outstanding, opponents like Michael Trizano and Timmy Cuamba. However, when faced with higher-level competition, he has been effectively outgrappled and outstruck.

This trend does not bode well for him in an upcoming matchup against Michael Aswell. Aswell has demonstrated that he can hold his own in striking exchanges against tough opponents and perform reasonably well in high-pressure situations.

Why Bet on Michael Aswell?

Aswell only has one win in the UFC, but we want to turn your attention immediately to his most “iconic” fight so far, and that was when he fought Bolaji Oki.

Oki is a heavy-hitting Featherweight, so for Aswell to stand and trade with such a powerhouse is impressive and certainly sends a positive message to us fans and pundits that he is often the man to back.

However, with that said, he isn’t winning consistently; he has had his struggles with defending takedowns, and that’s precisely where Almeida is likely to take the fight, as that’s the shortest path to victory.

Final Betting Analysis: Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell

Almeida needs to mix in takedowns and create an overwhelming fight for Aswell to make it challenging for him. However, it’s uncertain how effectively Almeida can do this if Aswell manages to keep the fight standing.

We also wonder if Aswell will incorporate some head movement into his boxing. Although he has solid striking and can throw punches in large volumes, Almeida is skilled at getting past his opponents’ guard and landing effective straight crosses.

Nevertheless, given Almeida’s difficulties with making weight, we believe he may tire during the fight, which could ultimately work to Aswell’s advantage.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter

Por que apostar em Jafel Filho?

Filho is coming off a rather uneventful fight against Nascimento, where fewer than 30 strikes were landed by both fighters. The match featured a lot of grappling, with several reversals and some impressive submission attempts.

During that fight, Filho was the more aggressive grappler, successfully taking Nascimento down multiple times. However, we believe he will face greater challenges against someone like Clay Carpenter, who has excellent wrestling skills himself.

Expect Filho to seek takedowns and try to establish control on the ground against Carpenter.

Por que apostar em Clayton Carpenter?

Carpenter is coming off a highly competitive fight against Tagir Ulanbekov, and it was quite an interesting matchup—something we don’t usually say about grappling and wrestling-heavy fights. Throughout the fight, Carpenter remained calm but displayed intensity on the feet, landing some powerful strikes early on. A world BJJ champion to some extent, he is very experienced on the ground, and this has always been evident whenever his fights go to the mat, as he consistently stays one step ahead of his opponents.

Final Betting Analysis: Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter

We think that Filho can test the grappling of Carpenter.However, we believe Carpenter is a lot more athletic and more well-rounded than Filho is, especially if the fight remains a standing bout, in which we are more than sure that the power of Carpenter will be a huge problem for Filho, who is a bit more one-dimensional with his approach to fighting.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen

Por que apostar em Vitor Petrino?

Petrino is likely to appear extremely powerful on his feet compared to Petersen. This perception is not solely due to his height and reach advantage; he also has a muscular build that exudes an aura of danger. However, his chin somewhat undermines this impression, as he has one of the most suspect chins we’ve ever seen.

Petrino excels in striking when he takes the aggressive role, and we expect him to push forward, throwing powerful hooks and combinations. His offensive stance is notable, with his hands positioned low at the waist or ribcage, ready to unleash his attacks with brutal power and speed. However, this stance does come with a risk. If Petersen avoids Petrino’s strikes and responds with an explosive blitz, he could test Petrino’s chin yet again.

Por que apostar em Thomas Petersen?

Petersen has a significant advantage in wrestling, as he can achieve takedowns multiple times during a fight, which is impressive in a heavyweight matchup. He will likely be highly motivated to take the fight to the ground because no one wants to strike toe-to-toe with someone like Petrino. We believe Petersen will focus on grinding against Petrino along the fence or getting him to the ground. His approach may resemble Tybura’s fighting style—slightly dull but an effective way to counter Petrino’s incredible power.

Final Betting Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen

We are picking Petrino to win because we believe he is more likely to use his hands effectively to cause significant damage. However, keep an eye on Petersen, as he will not be an easy opponent due to his impressive wrestling skills.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita

Por que apostar em Irina Alekseeva?

Irina “Russian Ronda” Alekseeva enters with a pro MMA record of 5-3, and a UFC record of 1-2. She is 35 years old, fights in the bantamweight division, and comes in at 5’8″ with a 67-inch reach, orthodox stance.

Her striking output is moderate: she lands about 4.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs approximately 5.03 per minute. She has two submission wins, including a notable kneebar finish of Stephanie Egger, and one KO win in her career. Alekseeva’s weaknesses include losses by decision and the tendency to allow her opponents to out-point her when the pace gets controlled.

Why Bet on Beatriz Mesquita?

Mesquita is one of the best grapplers in the world, boasting numerous championships and victories. We cannot underestimate her elite grappling skills; she is effectively the Mackenzie Dern of the Bantamweight division—an absolute powerhouse on the ground with a lifetime of experience.

We do not doubt that she will outgrapple Alekseeva and can outwork her as well, which will further deplete Alekseeva’s cardio.

Final Betting Analysis: Irina Alekseeva vs. Beatriz Mesquita

Expect nothing but grappling from Mesquita, but also expect perhaps a tepid start from her as she is no doubt aware of Alekseeva’s first-round pressure. However, if Alekseeva imposes early pressure and lands solid strikes or manages to neutralize Mesquita early, she could push it to a decision, but that looks less likely given what we know.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll

Por que apostar em Lucas Rocha?

Rocha is coming off a tough submission loss to Clayton Carpenter, which felt more like a Dana White Contender Series (DWCS) fight, as both fighters are still at a somewhat regional level. Rocha was effectively outstruck by Carpenter and was taken down too easily for my liking. Besides having suspect takedown defense, his striking defense is also quite poor. He often leaves his head exposed and seems more inclined to engage in a brawl rather than a technical exchange.

Despite these issues, Rocha can deal damage effectively; he is capable of mixing up his target mid-combination and can be difficult to handle when he is not taken down and is pushing the pace. However, all of this comes back to his takedown defense. As long as that remains a problem, he will always be vulnerable to being countered with takedowns.

Por que apostar em Stewart Nicoll?

Nicoll barely had a real fight when he made his debut a year ago; the match lasted about as long as a toilet break, and he was submitted relatively quickly. His takedown defense is quite concerning, as his grappling primarily focuses on hunting for submissions, but he still gets taken down frequently. On the positive side, he does have several knockouts on his record.

Final Betting Analysis: Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll

If Nicoll is smart, he should aim for an early takedown to exploit Rocha’s somewhat rough takedown defense. If Nicoll can secure that takedown and position himself over Rocha, he should find it relatively easy to maintain control since Rocha’s attempts to stand up tend to be more explosive than technical.

However, we believe it would be wiser to side with Rocha, as we anticipate he will demonstrate more consistency in his approach than Nicoll.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman

Por que apostar em Valter Walker?

In this fight, Walker is going to do two things almost immediately: walk forward in a fairly aggressive, minimal defense way, throwing heavy attacks with near minimal skill, and then he’s going to shoot and go for a takedown to break Usman’s ankle as he tears at that thing like a hungry mongoose.

Walker is as one dimensional as you can get and as long as the fight hits the ground he’s in full and firm control of the fight, capable of landing heavy attacks and submissions, he’s just a nightmare to deal with and it intrigues us if he can get Usman out of there in the first round because if not there might be major concerns about a fairly big comeback from Usman since Usman does throw a lot of weight with his punches too.

Por que apostar em Mohammed Usman?

Mohammed Usman is 36 and more of a veteran presence in this matchup with a 12-4 record. He has decent durability, good striking defense relative to many heavyweight fighters, and isn’t afraid of letting fights go longer.

His style is less flashy but more about pressure, experience, and resisting early surges from grappling experts.

Final Betting Analysis: Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman

We cannot say with any certainty that Usman’s takedown defense and grappling defense are up to par enough to deal with what Walker has in store for him.

Usman will forever be a weird fighter for us to break down because, while he is obviously genetically gifted, he lacks everything else that makes a fighter, well, a fighter.

This is an easy pick on Walker for us.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Por que apostar em Julia Polastri?

Polastri has been an intriguing addition to the UFC roster, having recently fought Godinez in a very competitive match. She successfully defended against many of Godinez’s takedown attempts, and we believe she will pose a significant challenge for Kowalkiewicz. Polastri is known for her striking volume and effective combinations, which will likely be a key factor in their matchup.

Por que apostar em Karolina Kowalkiewicz?

Kowalkiewicz has been a tough fighter to watch because we all admired her in her earlier days. While she showed some promise during her return to the UFC after a long break, that hope has now been shattered, and she seems to be on a downward trend, showing signs of decline.

One aspect where Kowalkiewicz excels is her ability to fight aggressively. She’s always been an actionable fighter, able to maintain a high pace throughout a round and win convincingly. However, against Polastri, I believe Kowalkiewicz will try to set a fast pace but will struggle to land significant strikes. As a result, she may tire herself out and lose the later rounds.

Final Betting Analysis: Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

One key aspect we always like to emphasize about Polastri is her effectiveness in the clinch. If she utilizes her clinch strikes to wear down Kowalkiewicz’s body, it will significantly impact Kowalkiewicz’s already shaky cardio. While there is a slight size difference between the two fighters, Polastri’s volume and speed should more than compensate for it. As a result, we can expect to see Polastri consistently leading in both the scorecards and the statistics throughout the fight.

Noite de Luta do UFC: Saimon Oliveira vs. Luan Lacerda

Why Bet on Saimon Oliveira?

Oliveira is coming off a knockout loss to David Martinez just six months ago, and before that, he suffered another knockout loss to Daniel Santos. This track record suggests that he may not be the most durable fighter when it comes to absorbing hits, and we believe he can easily become uncomfortable under pressure.

Although Oliveira is the only one of the two fighters who has won by knockout or TKO, those victories occurred a decade ago during the early stages of his professional MMA career.

Por que apostar em Luan Lacerda?

Lacerda is returning from a hiatus of over two years, which we believe was due to injuries. However, he has been involved in more intense exchanges in his two fights than Oliveira has in his three. Therefore, we think Lacerda has slightly more experience in striking and possesses a diverse range of attacks. He effectively uses techniques such as body kicks from both stances and a solid one-two striking combination.

While we are uncertain if he will be the more effective striker in this fight, we believe he can hold his own. Additionally, the slight height advantage he has over Oliveira may create opportunities for landing head kicks.

Final Betting Analysis: Saimon Oliveira vs. Luan Lacerda

Oliveira will be at a disadvantage as long as Lacerda continues to deliver effective kicks. By targeting Oliveira’s body and mixing in some teep kicks, Lacerda can limit Oliveira’s opportunities for level changes. On the ground, however, it would be a 50/50 matchup between two submission specialists.

We are picking Lacerda to win this fight because we believe his striking will give him the advantage.

Oliveira vs. Gamrot Escolha de apostas: Carlos Oliveira

Figueiredo vs. Jackson Escolha de apostas: Montel Jackson

Luque vs. Alvarez Escolha de apostas: Joel Álvarez

Diniz vs. Pinto Escolha de apostas: Mário Pinto

Ramos vs. Ofli Escolha de apostas: Ricardo Ramos

Almeida vs. Aswell Escolha de apostas: Michael Aswell

Filho vs. Carpenter Escolha de apostas: Clayton Carpinteiro

Petrino vs. Petersen Escolha de apostas: Vitor Petrino

Alekseeva vs. Mesquita Escolha de apostas: Irina Alekseeva

Rocha vs. Nicoll Escolha de apostas: Lucas Rocha

Walker vs. Usman Escolha de apostas: Valter Walker

Polastri vs. Kowalkiewicz Escolha de apostas: Júlia Polastri

Oliveira vs. Lacerda Escolha de apostas: Luan Lacerda