Last Updated on Setembro 9, 2026 8:27 pm by Erwin Noguera
Two weeks ago in Shanghai, we backed the home fighters and went 4-8.
Last Saturday in Paris, we did the opposite (deliberately faded the French favourites) and the first three home fighters on the card all won. Salahdine Parnasse knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round. Losene Keita, whose -400 price we called the worst on the card, won by knockout. Axel Sola won by knockout. Felipe Lima beat Morgan Charriere on the cards.
Both weeks we got it wrong, in opposite directions. The lesson is not “use the crowd” or “fade the crowd.” It is that we let one idea organise an entire card twice in a row, and a thirteen-fight event does not have one idea in it.
So here is Noche UFC (the fourth annual event built around Mexican Independence Day, in Glendale, Arizona, stacked with Mexican and Mexican-American fighters), and we are going to price thirteen fights individually and let the picks fall wherever they fall.
Não perca o evento deste sábado! UFC/MMA Acompanhe o evento com análises completas das lutas e dicas de apostas, e mantenha a adrenalina em alta! Cassino Gambyl, onde promoções exclusivas e ação ininterrupta no cassino elevam a noite de lutas a outro nível.
Noche UFC Glendale: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Jean Silva -250 | Jose Miguel Delgado +210 |
| Brandon Moreno -170 | Joseph Morales +149 |
| Tommy McMillen -135 | Marwan Rahiki +115 |
| Manon Fiorot -300 | Alexa Grasso +245 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta -150 | Curtis Blaydes +130 |
| David Martinez -280 | Dan Ige +230 |
| Edgar Chairez -225 | Tim Elliott +189 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes -300 | Muslim Salikhov +245 |
| Yousri Belgaroui -700 | Djorden Santos +505 |
| Tommy Gantt -500 | Drakkar Klose +383 |
| Rafa Garcia -150 | Rongzhu +130 |
| Sean King III -150 | Jessie Rosas +130 |
| Regina Tarin -300 | JJ Aldrich +245 |
| Quando? | Saturday, September 12 — Main Card at 5:00 pm ET |
| Onde? | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ |
Noche UFC: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Por que apostar em Jean Silva?
Silva is ranked sixth at featherweight and rebounded from the worst night of his career by beating Arnold Allen on the cards in January. He is a genuine contender, one win from a title conversation, and Delgado is unranked.
Why Bet on Jose Miguel Delgado?
Start with what happened to Silva at this event last year. He faced Diego Lopes in a bout that swung three times in under ten minutes and was caught with a spinning back elbow and stopped. That is a documented chin question against a hard-charging opponent.
Delgado brings exactly that profile, plus the physical edge. He holds a considerable height and reach advantage, an established willingness to step into the fray, and (by the UFC’s own assessment) “a pretty good chin on him too.” The 28-year-old was born in Yuma and fights out of Glendale, and he has won twice this year: a narrow decision over André Fili e um bludgeoning of Austin Bashi em julho.
Final Betting Analysis: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
The market has told you something here. Silva opened as short as -450 at some books and settled around -250. Money arrived on the short-notice replacement, and it arrived for reasons that hold up: the bigger man, with reach and a chin, against a contender who was knocked out cold in this same slot twelve months ago.
The UFC’s own preview says there is “a very high likelihood that it ends with someone looking up at the referee and asking, what happened?” Both men can be that someone.
FREE PICK: Delgado +210, small stake. Silva is the better fighter and probably wins. The price on a taller, heavier-handed opponent against a man with a recent knockout loss is too generous to pass.
Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales
Por que apostar em Brandon Moreno?
A former two-time flyweight champion returning to the building where he first won the title at UFC 263. Name, pedigree, and championship experience against a fighter who has never been near that level.
Por que apostar em Joseph Morales?
Read Moreno’s recent record before laying -170. He is 4-5 in nine fights since that title win and arrives on back-to-back defeats. The UFC’s own preview asks openly whether “The Assassin Baby” has slipped to the point where he is no longer a contender.
Morales, meanwhile, is in the best form of his career. He went 1-2 in his first UFC stint, struggled with injuries and inactivity, then won The Ultimate Fighter 33 outright. He followed that with a second-round submission of Alibi Idiris at UFC 319 and a first-round guillotine finish of Matt Schnell Em novembro.
Final Betting Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales
A former champion on a two-fight losing run, 4-5 across three years, is favoured over a fighter who has finished his last two. The name is doing the work at that price.
Morales is a substantial step up from what he has faced, and Moreno’s floor is still high. But +149 on the fighter with the momentum, against one whose decline is the central question of his own preview, is the better side.
FREE PICK: Morales +149.
Noche UFC: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki
Why Bet on Tommy McMillen?
The most heavily pushed prospect on the card. McMillen has stoppage wins and performance bonuses in each of his first two UFC appearances, é unbeaten across 18 straight fights between his professional (11) and amateur (7) careers, and requested a place on this event. He trains ten minutes away at Red Hawk Academy in Peoria, Arizona.
Por que apostar em Marwan Rahiki?
He is also undefeated and on a consecutive run of stoppage wins since earning his contract: a drubbing of Harry Hardwick in March, then quick work of late replacement Ollie Schmid in Perth in May.
The detail worth noting is that the Perth bout was originally meant to be against Jack Jenkins, an established veteran. Matchmakers do not book a newcomer against that level unless they rate him highly.
Final Betting Analysis: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki
-135/+115 is the closest line on the card, and correctly so. Two undefeated featherweight prospects, both finishing people, both being fast-tracked. There is no meaningful edge in the form.
When a line sits this tight, take the plus money rather than invent a stylistic argument the market has already priced.
FREE PICK: Rahiki +115.
Noche UFC: Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso
Por que apostar em Manon Fiorot?
The most complete résumé in the division outside the champion. Fiorot is 8-1 inside the Octagon, with wins over Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Cerminara, Erin Blanchfield, and Rose Namajunas. She took Valentina Shevchenko the distance in a competitive title fight at UFC 315, then stopped Jasmine Jasudavicius on her return in Vancouver.
Por que apostar em Alexa Grasso?
A former champion who answered her own questions in March. After going 0-1-1 against Shevchenko and losing to Natalia Silva, Grasso produced the most brutal finish of the year against Maycee Barber.
Final Betting Analysis: Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso
The stakes lift this above a normal main-card bout. With Shevchenko reportedly out for a year and the vacant title being contested next month, the winner here is first in line for the new champion.
Fiorot is the better fighter and the résumé gap is real. -300 is a price that has punished us repeatedly, and we are taking it anyway, because unlike the short favourites that beat us in Shanghai, this one is supported by a body of work against ranked opposition rather than hype.
FREE PICK: Fiorot -300. The one favourite on this card we are comfortable laying.
Noche UFC: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes
Why Bet on Waldo Cortes Acosta?
10-3 inside the Octagon since arriving from the Contender Series, now No. 7 in the meta rankings and No. 5 in the media set. There is history for the situation he is in: the last time he lost to a Russian ranked above him, “Salsa Boy” won three straight and entered the title conversation. He arrives here off a decision defeat to Alexandre Volkov.
Por que apostar em Curtis Blaydes?
A decade in the top ten. Blaydes has hovered between third and seventh in the rankings for most of that time, beating everyone except the elite contenders, and opened this year with a brawl against Josh Hokit at UFC 327.
No +130, you are getting the more experienced heavyweight at plus money in a division where experience matters and single exchanges decide everything.
Final Betting Analysis: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes
Two divisional stalwarts in a fight that has felt inevitable for two years, with the top of the weight class frozen while everyone waits on Tom Aspinall.
Heavyweight forecasting is close to meaningless; both men end fights with one shot. When that is true, the price decides it.
FREE PICK: Blaydes +130.
Noche UFC: David Martinez vs. Dan Ige
Por que apostar em David Martinez?
Martinez took a short-notice promotion into the co-main event at last year’s Noche UFC and beat Fonte Rob, então bata Marlon “Chito” Vera in February to settle into the top ten. Two ranked wins in twelve months.
Por que apostar em Dan Ige?
Ige has always been undersized at featherweight and survived on toughness and power. Now, after dropping four of his last five and completing a successful test cut, he moves to bantamweight for the first time, a division where his frame finally fits.
Final Betting Analysis: David Martinez vs. Dan Ige
The UFC’s preview asks the right question: how much of Martinez’s rise is genuine top-ten quality, and how much is that Font and Vera are older fighters who are past their best?
The honest answer is that we do not know, and Ige’s own form (one win in five) makes it hard to oppose Martinez with any confidence either.
FREE PICK: no play. A -280 favourite whose two best wins carry an asterisk, against an opponent in visible decline. Watch it, do not bet it.
Noche UFC: Edgar Chairez vs. Tim Elliott
Por que apostar em Edgar Chairez?
His record of 4-2 with 1 no contest badly undersells him. Chairez has won three straight, and both defeats came against Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, two of the best flyweights in the division.
Por que apostar em Tim Elliott?
A decade-long staple, there is a genuinely useful pattern in his recent work. Elliott’s last nine outings break into three neat “two wins, one loss” bundles, and he arrives here off a defeat to Steve Erceg in May.
If the pattern holds, this is the start of the next pair of wins.
Final Betting Analysis: Edgar Chairez vs. Tim Elliott
Chairez is the better prospect and the more dangerous finisher. Elliott is the more experienced fighter, has never been easy to cook, and is at the point in his cycle where he historically wins.
+189 on a veteran with that consistency, against an opponent whose price is built on three wins over lesser opposition, is worth taking.
FREE PICK: Elliott +189.
Noche UFC: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Muslim Salikhov
Por que apostar em Ignacio Bahamondes?
A welterweight debut that is two years overdue. It was always strange that a six-foot-three fighter competed at lightweight, and his career record at 170 is 7-2, including his Contender Series win. He should be physically transformed by the move.
Por que apostar em Muslim Salikhov?
A decade of consistency in the welterweight ranks, with the technique, power, and quickness to punish anyone who is careless. He has been catching people out at this weight since before Bahamondes was on the roster.
Final Betting Analysis: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Muslim Salikhov
Bahamondes arrives on consecutive defeats and is changing divisions to fix it. That is a hopeful narrative, not a proven one, and -300 is a lot to pay for a fighter’s first outing at a new weight after two losses.
Salikhov has been exactly this fighter for ten years.
FREE PICK: Salikhov +245.
Noche UFC: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos
Por que apostar em Yousri Belgaroui?
The heaviest favourite on the card at -700, and the form supports it. Belgaroui did not receive a contract after Season 8 of the Contender Series, then forced his way in with consecutive third-round stoppages of prospects Azamat Bekoev e Mansur Abdul-Malik. He is a legitimate middleweight dark horse chasing a third straight win.
Por que apostar em Djorden Santos?
He was the one who got the contract that season, and it has not gone well: 1-2 across his first three UFC starts, most recently a third-round submission loss to Baisangur Susurkaev em maio.
Final Betting Analysis: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos
The favourite is better, in form, and finishing people. The underdog is 1-2 and coming off a submission defeat.
-700 implies an 87.5% chance of winning. That is not a bet in a division where fights end in one exchange, and Santos has not shown enough to oppose it either.
FREE PICK: no play. The correct read is “Belgaroui wins,” and there is no way to profit from it.
Noche UFC: Tommy Gantt vs. Drakkar Klose
Por que apostar em Tommy Gantt?
He is a -500 favourite, which places this among the most lopsided lines on the card.
Por que apostar no Drakkar Klose?
+383 on a fighter the market has written off entirely.
Final Betting Analysis: Tommy Gantt vs. Drakkar Klose
We are going to be straight with you: this is the only bout on the card the UFC’s official fight-by-fight preview does not cover, and we do not have current form data on either man that we would be willing to publish.
We could fill this section with plausible-sounding sentences. We won’t, because that is how bad picks get made.
FREE PICK: no play. No information, no bet.
Noche UFC: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu
Por que apostar em Rafa Garcia?
On a three-fight winning streak, having won five of his last six, with the only setback coming against Grant Dawson, a legitimate lightweight. This is his second Noche UFC appearance.
Por que apostar em Rongzhu?
Also on a three-fight winning streak. He earned his way back onto the roster by winning the lightweight tournament on Road to UFC Season 2, lost his return bout, and has won three in a row since; most recently looking, in the UFC’s own words, “like a menace” against Victor Martinez in Macau in May.
Final Betting Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu
Two ascending, underrated lightweights, both on three-fight runs, priced at -150/+130. There is no separation in the form and very little in the résumés.
FREE PICK: Rongzhu +130. Free points in a genuine pick’em.
Noche UFC: Sean King III vs. Jessie Rosas
Why Bet on Sean King III?
Unbeaten in six professional fights after a similar amateur run, with finishes in each of his last three.
Why Bet on Jessie Rosas?
8-1 through his first nine starts, built while bouncing between regional promotions, gaining experience wherever he could find it. He is also the older brother of bantamweight standout Raul Rosas Jr.
Final Betting Analysis: Sean King III vs. Jessie Rosas
Both men are making their promotional debuts, which means neither has been tested at this level and both have beaten what was in front of them.
The tiebreaker is in the UFC’s own assessment of King: he “has yet to face anyone of real consequence to this point in his career.” Rosas has faced a more comprehensive range of opposition to build his 8-1.
FREE PICK: Rosas +130.
Noche UFC: Regina Tarin vs. JJ Aldrich
Why Bet on Regina Tarin?
Undefeated at 8-0, she won her UFC debut in Mexico City earlier this year on extremely short notice. She now has a full camp behind her for the first time, which is a genuine step up in preparation.
Por que apostar em JJ Aldrich?
The veteran has won two straight and four of her last five, and remains, in the UFC’s phrasing, “a vital part of the flyweight ecosystem.” She has spent years beating exactly the sort of prospect Tarin currently is.
Final Betting Analysis: Regina Tarin vs. JJ Aldrich
This is the price on the card we like least. A veteran on a two-fight winning streak, four wins from five, is a +245 underdog against a prospect with one UFC appearance to her name.
Tarin may well be the better fighter in eighteen months. She is not a 3-to-1 better fighter this Saturday.
FREE PICK: Aldrich +245. The best value on the card.
Free Picks Summary
Main Card
- Delgado +210 — small stake
- Morales +149
- Rahiki +115
- Fiorot -300
- Blaydes +130
- Martinez vs. Ige — no play
Preliminares
- Elliott +189
- Salikhov +245
- Belgaroui vs. Santos — no play
- Gantt vs. Klose — no play, no information
- Rongzhu +130
- Rosas +130
- Aldrich +245
Final Card Outlook
We are underdog-heavy again, and we want to address that directly.
Nine of our ten live picks are on plus money. That looks identical to the Paris card that just went badly, and we understand the scepticism.
The difference is the reasoning. In Paris, every pick flowed from one thesis (fade the home crowd) applied thirteen times. Here, each fight was priced on its own: we are backing a home fighter in the main event, laying -300 on Fiorot, and passing entirely on three bouts, including one where we simply do not have the information.
That is the correction. Not fewer underdogs: fewer shared assumptions.
Three things define this card. The main event has a real chance of ending inside two rounds in either direction, and the market has already moved 200 points toward the underdog. Fiorot versus Grasso is a title eliminator in everything but name, with Shevchenko out for a year and the belt vacant. And McMillen against Rahiki is two undefeated prospects meeting a year earlier than either of them needed to.
And the price we like most is the one opening the show. JJ Aldrich at +245, on a two-fight winning streak, against an 8-0 prospect with a single Octagon appearance. If Noche UFC delivers what the previous three did, that will not be the only number that looks wrong by midnight.
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