{"id":49351,"date":"2026-10-07T21:53:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T03:53:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49351"},"modified":"2026-10-07T21:54:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T03:54:18","slug":"ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-fight-card-odds-and-free-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/pt\/ufc\/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-fight-card-odds-and-free-pick\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Card Odds and Free Pick"},"content":{"rendered":"

Christian Leroy Duncan has won five in a row and beaten Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier back-to-back.<\/strong> Saturday is his first UFC main event.

Brendan Allen is ranked fourth, is on a three-fight run, and did not have to take this fight.<\/strong> He beat Reinier de Ridder to enter the top five last October, and he has now fought downward in the rankings twice this year rather than wait for a bigger name.

That is the headline: a contender choosing activity over protection, against a man one win from the title conversation.

Below it sits a twelve-fight card at the Meta APEX with a genuine interest attached: two fighters with 69 professional appearances between them who have reached the judges only eleven times.<\/strong>

N\u00e3o perca o evento deste s\u00e1bado! UFC\/MMA<\/a> Acompanhe o evento com an\u00e1lises completas das lutas e dicas de apostas, e mantenha a adrenalina em alta! Cassino Gambyl<\/a>, onde promo\u00e7\u00f5es exclusivas e a\u00e7\u00e3o ininterrupta no cassino elevam a noite de lutas a outro n\u00edvel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Fight Card Odds and Info<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brendan Allen (-210) <\/em><\/td>Christian Leroy Duncan (+180)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Matheus Camilo (-145)<\/em><\/td>Jai Herbert (+125)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Loopy Godinez (-450) <\/em><\/td>Ketlen Souza (+350) <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Andre Fili (-154)<\/em><\/td>Kai Kamaka III (+134)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Malcolm Wellmaker (-240)<\/td>Otari Tanzilovi (+200)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Julius Walker (-260) <\/em><\/td>Gerald Meerschaert (+215)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Francisco Prado (+180)<\/em><\/td>Ismael Bonfim (-210)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Niko Price (-110) <\/em><\/td>Leon Shahbazyan (-110)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Felipe Franco (-350)<\/em><\/td>Brendson Ribeiro (+280)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Allen Frye Jr. (+245) <\/em><\/td>RJ Harris (-300)<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Alice Pereira (+161)<\/em><\/td>Daria Zhelezniakova (-185) <\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Ernesta Kareckait\u0117 (+189) <\/em><\/td>Melissa Gatto (-225) <\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Quando?<\/strong><\/td>Saturday, October 10 \u2014 prelims 5:00 PM ET, main card 8:00 PM ET<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Onde?<\/strong><\/td>Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Onde posso assistir?<\/strong><\/td>Paramount+<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two notes before we start.<\/strong> The main event price is disputed<\/strong>: the offshore books opened Allen at -210<\/strong>, while others have him as short as -140<\/strong>. That is a large gap, and we flag it rather than pick the flattering version. And UFC.com’s own listings disagree on the card order<\/strong>: the event page places Fili\u2013Kamaka and Wellmaker\u2013Tanzilovi on the main card with Walker\u2013Meerschaert opening the prelims, while the fight-by-fight preview has Walker\u2013Meerschaert on the main card and Fili\u2013Kamaka on the prelims. We have used the event page, which was updated more recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Allen?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

He is ranked fourth, and he is on a three-fight winning streak<\/strong>, the most recent a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan that earned Fight of the Night<\/strong>. Before that, he beat Reinier de Ridder<\/strong> to climb into the top five.

The grappling is the fight.<\/strong> Allen’s path is to make this a wrestling and submission contest, and everything about Duncan’s rise has happened at range. The Louisiana man also does not mind a kickboxing match, which is the dangerous part of his profile for an opponent: he can win this two ways and only needs one of them to work.

And there is a case in the matchmaking itself.<\/strong> Allen is fighting backwards<\/em> in the rankings for the second time this year, which says he is confident enough to take a risk the top five rarely take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Duncan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Five straight wins, including consecutive decisions over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier<\/strong>: two of the hardest men in the division to outpoint. That run took him into the top ten and earned him this main event.

The Gloucester man brings high-level, varied striking and excellent footwork<\/strong>, which is precisely the toolkit that keeps a fight where he wants it. If he can deny the first takedown and make Allen pay for the level change, twenty-five minutes at range belongs to him.

A win here puts him in the title conversation<\/strong>, and fighters in that position tend to produce their best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Allen vs. Duncan<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The whole fight is the first two minutes of grappling.<\/strong> UFC’s own preview frames it the same way: how Duncan holds up in the early entanglements dictates where the action happens and how it ends.

The price is the problem.<\/strong> No -210,<\/strong> Allen is a solid favourite; at -140,<\/strong> he is barely one. That spread tells you the market has not settled on how much the grappling edge is worth<\/strong>, and anyone betting this should shop hard for the better number.

Allen is the more complete fighter and has beaten the better opposition. Duncan has won five in a row and is the fresher story.

FREE PICK: Brendan Allen by decision, and only at -140 or better. At -210 there is no value.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Camilo?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

11-3, twenty-five years old, and training out of Xtreme Couture.<\/strong> After faltering on debut, he has won two straight, the most recent a result worth dwelling on: he stopped Nazim Sadykhov in the first round in Sadykhov’s own hometown of Baku.<\/strong>

Finishing a live opponent in front of his home crowd is the kind of performance that separates a prospect from a name<\/strong>, and Camilo did it at 25. The raw upside is the bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Herbert?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The British veteran has length and experience Camilo has not faced<\/strong>, and the habit of surviving. In April he looked on the brink of defeat against Mandel Nallo in Winnipeg<\/strong> before rallying to finish him.

The honest statistic cuts both ways.<\/strong> Herbert has not produced consecutive results in nine fights<\/strong>: he wins, he loses, he wins. By that pattern, this is a losing night. By the same pattern, he is due a response to the one he just produced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Camilo vs. Herbert<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Prospect against veteran, and the question is whether Camilo has seen length like this.<\/strong>

-145 is a short price for a 25-year-old with three professional defeats against a man who has beaten better.<\/strong> But Herbert’s nine-fight alternating pattern is not a coincidence; it describes a fighter whose ceiling is a good night rather than a run.

FREE PICK: Matheus Camilo by TKO.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Godinez?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ranked eighth, in her sixth year on the roster, and the best-credentialed fighter in this bout by a distance.<\/strong> Godinez has shared the Octagon with most of the division’s best, and the relevant line is this: she has not lost to an unranked opponent since 2021<\/strong>, when she moved up to flyweight against Luana Carolina.

Her most recent defeat came against Tatiana Suarez at UFC 327<\/strong>; losing to one of the division’s elite is not the same as being beatable by the rest of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Souza?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Two straight wins and improving.<\/strong> A grinding decision over Bruna Brasil<\/strong> in February, then a first-round knockout of Ariane Carnelossi<\/strong> in June to move to 4-2 at strawweight in the UFC<\/strong>.

Her route is pace and activity.<\/strong> When Souza is busy with her striking, it creates openings. At +350,<\/strong> she only has to find one of them against a 33-year-old who has absorbed six years of top-ten competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Godinez vs. Souza<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

-450 is a big number, and the record supports it.<\/strong> Five years without losing to an unranked opponent is a strong, specific credential, and the UFC’s own preview frames this as a measuring-stick fight for Souza rather than a threat to Godinez.

The caution is Souza’s tendency to settle.<\/strong> She can be active and effective, and she can also drift into the clinch and be content there, which, against a ranked opponent, is how you lose a decision you did not need to.

FREE PICK: Loopy Godinez by decision. No stake at -450.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Fili?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Making his third start of the year, and the most recent earned him Fight of the Night.<\/strong> Fili stepped up on short notice against Vinicius Oliveira in June<\/strong> and came away with a bonus; in March he lost a close decision to Jose Miguel Delgado<\/strong>.

That is a veteran taking hard fights and being competitive in all of them.<\/strong> Las Vegas-based, durable, and the more proven of the two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Kamaka III?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

1-1 since returning to the UFC this year<\/strong>, he edged Dakota Hope<\/strong> in April before running into unbeaten Liverpool prospect Luke Riley at UFC 329<\/strong> em julho.

His case is freshness against mileage.<\/strong> Fili has been in wars; Kamaka has not accumulated the same damage. At +134<\/strong> in a fight between two Las Vegas-based veterans who know each other’s world well, that is a reasonable price on the less-worn fighter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Fili vs. Kamaka III<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

-154 and +134 is the market saying it cannot separate them, and it probably cannot.<\/strong>

Fili’s recent form is better in quality and worse in results: a close loss and a bonus-winning short-notice effort. Kamaka’s is one win and one loss against very different opposition.

FREE PICK: Andre Fili by decision.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Wellmaker?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A year ago, he was 2-0 in the UFC, 10-0 overall, and one of the most highly regarded prospects in the promotion.<\/strong>

He is now 10-2 and on a two-fight skid<\/strong>, and has relocated to American Top Team<\/strong> in response: a significant change rather than a cosmetic one. “The Machine” built his reputation on punishing opponents early, and a fighter with his finishing profile usually only needs one clean sequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Tanzilovi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Also 10-2, and the record is more informative than it looks.<\/strong> The Georgian lost a split decision to Josias Musasa on Contender Series<\/strong>, won five months later, and lost to unbeaten prospect Shane Collins<\/strong> em junho.

He has lost to the only two UFC-calibre opponents he has faced<\/strong>, but one of those was a split decision, and he has never been outclassed. At +200<\/strong> against a man who has lost twice in a row, that is a live price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Wellmaker vs. Tanzilovi<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A clash of 10-2 bantamweights, both needing a result.<\/strong> Wellmaker has the higher ceiling and is being priced on the version of him from eighteen months ago. Tanzilovi has the better recent narrative and has never been dominated.

-240 assumes the American Top Team move has already worked.<\/strong> That is an assumption, not evidence.

FREE PICK: Malcolm Wellmaker by knockout, at a reduced stake. Tanzilovi at +200 is defensible.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Vegas 122: Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Walker?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

7-3, and the UFC record understates him.<\/strong> One win in four Octagon starts sounds grim until you see the names: a split decision loss to Alonzo Menifield<\/strong>, a win over Raffael Cerquiera<\/strong>, and stoppage defeats to Dustin Jacoby<\/strong> and rising star Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev<\/strong>. The Drury University product has been handed a hard road.

He is also the younger, bigger, natural light heavyweight<\/strong> against a man who has spent his entire career at 185.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Bet on Meerschaert?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

He holds the UFC middleweight record for most submission wins (11) and most finishes (12).<\/strong> That is not a stat line; it is a warning.

No 38,<\/strong> he arrives on a five-fight skid<\/strong>: the most recent was a weight-miss and defeat to Jacob Malkoun in Perth in May<\/strong> when he was already moving up. This is his first start at 205 pounds in over a decade<\/strong>, and the lack of a cut should mean a fresher, stronger version of him than anyone has seen recently.

At +215, a man with twelve UFC finishes needs one mistake from an opponent who has been stopped twice in his last three.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Betting Analysis: Walker vs. Meerschaert<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is the fight of the night, and the numbers say so.<\/strong> Across 69 combined professional appearances, these two have reached the judges only eleven times.<\/strong> Somebody is getting finished.

That is exactly why +215 is interesting.<\/strong> In a fight with a near-certain stoppage, the submission specialist with the divisional record is a long price against a fighter who has been stopped in two of his last three.

FREE PICK: Gerald Meerschaert by submission at +215, the best value on the card.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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