{"id":49358,"date":"2026-10-08T18:35:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T00:35:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49358"},"modified":"2026-10-08T18:35:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T00:35:51","slug":"nfl-undefeated-teams-and-early-contenders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/pt\/nfl\/nfl-undefeated-teams-and-early-contenders\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL: Undefeated Teams and Early Contenders"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last NFL season’s fourteen playoff teams have a combined 30-26 record.<\/strong>

That is the lowest winning percentage through four weeks by the previous season’s playoff field in fifteen years<\/strong>, according to ESPN Research. The established order is not holding.

Three teams are undefeated: San Francisco, Kansas City, and Minnesota.<\/strong> And the two best point differentials in their respective conferences belong to teams that have already lost a game.

Here is who is actually good after four weeks, who is winning without being good, and what the numbers say about the difference.

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The Top of the League by Point Differential<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Equipe<\/em><\/th>Registro<\/em><\/th>PF<\/em><\/th>PA<\/em><\/th>Diff<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
San Francisco 49ers<\/em><\/td>4-0<\/em><\/td>122<\/em><\/td>64<\/em><\/td>+58<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Jacksonville Jaguars<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>104<\/em><\/td>53<\/em><\/td>+51<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Chicago Bears<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>112<\/em><\/td>65<\/em><\/td>+47<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Chefes de Kansas City<\/em><\/td>4-0<\/em><\/td>118<\/em><\/td>77<\/em><\/td>+41<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Minnesota Vikings<\/em><\/td>4-0<\/em><\/td>86<\/em><\/td>51<\/em><\/td>+35<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Seattle Seahawks<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>105<\/em><\/td>73<\/em><\/td>+32<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Las Vegas Raiders<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>115<\/em><\/td>84<\/em><\/td>+31<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Corvos de Baltimore<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>116<\/em><\/td>96<\/em><\/td>+20<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Buffalo Bills<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>127<\/em><\/td>107<\/em><\/td>+20<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two of the top three are not undefeated.<\/strong> That is the first thing worth noticing, and it shapes everything below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco 49ers \u2014 4-0, +58<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The best record and the best point differential in football, and they have been doing it short-handed.<\/strong>

Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury. Ricky Pearsall is gone for the season with a knee. Rookie De’Zhaun Stribling is out ten weeks with an ankle injury.<\/strong> San Francisco have absorbed all of that and have not lost.

Brock Purdy has emerged as an early MVP candidate,<\/strong> and the offence has carried most of the load. 122 points scored against 64 conceded<\/strong> is the most complete profile in the league; nobody else is in the top three in both columns.

And the Denver win changed the read.<\/strong> A 24-14 result in which the Niners leaned on defence and special teams rather than the scoreboard is evidence that this is not a one-dimensional team.

Verdict: the most legitimate 4-0 in the league, and the clearest Super Bowl profile after four weeks.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas City Chiefs \u2014 4-0, +41<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Four wins, a +41 differential, and a running back who has rewritten the offence.<\/strong>

Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards<\/strong> and has six total touchdowns. The effect is not just the yardage: a credible ground game has let Patrick Mahomes attack deep again<\/strong>, which is something the Chiefs’ offence had largely stopped doing.

The caution is the receiving room.Tyquan Thornton has a dislocated left ankle and Rashee Rice a right hamstring.<\/strong> Kansas City are on a bye this week, which arrives at a useful moment.

And the schedule has been real.<\/strong> Four conference wins, two divisional, including a 30-27 result at Las Vegas against a team that is 3-1 with a +31 differential.

Verdict: legitimate, and the bye is the most valuable thing any contender gets this week.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minnesota Vikings \u2014 4-0, +35<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

They are 4-0, and they have scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.<\/strong>

That is not a criticism dressed as a statistic. It is the defining fact of Minnesota’s season. 86 points scored in four games (21.5 a game) against 51 conceded.<\/strong>

The explanation is entirely defence and special teams.<\/strong> Minnesota’s defence ranks No. 1 in the NFL in expected points added<\/strong>, com Brian Flores blitzing on 68% of snaps<\/strong>. The special teams unit ranks N\u00ba 2<\/strong>: Will Reichard has made all twelve field goal attempts<\/strong>, and returner Myles Price is averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return and 20.1 per punt return.<\/strong>

Their wins read 15-10 over Miami and a succession of similar scorelines.<\/strong> The 4-0 record is real and so is the defence. What is not established is whether a team that cannot score can keep winning into December.<\/strong>

Verdict: the shakiest unbeaten record in the league, and the one most likely to break first.<\/strong> ESPN’s panel ranks them ninth (behind two 3-1 teams and a 2-2 team), which is a reasonable place for a side with this profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Two Best Teams That Already Lost<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-1, +51.<\/strong> The best point differential in the AFC, ahead of Kansas City.

They have conceded 53 points in four games, and nine of them in first halves.<\/strong> Nine. All season.

The hype coming in was about Year 2 of the Liam Coen offence. The story is defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile.<\/strong> Jacksonville rank top eight in the NFL in sacks, run defence, turnovers, red-zone efficiency, and third-down defence<\/strong>, com o second-best run defence in football at 74.3 yards a game.<\/strong>

They beat Cincinnati 22-17 on Sunday despite 125 penalty yards; their most in a single game since Week 7 of 2019.<\/strong> Winning a road game while giving away that much field is its own kind of evidence.

Chicago Bears: 3-1, +47.<\/strong> Second-best differential in the NFC, and they have done it with three different quarterbacks.<\/strong>

Caleb Williams put up 59 points on Carolina before his hamstring injury. Case Keenum beat Philadelphia. Tyson Bagent handled the Jets 23-12.<\/strong> The quarterback has changed twice, and the results have not.

That is because the team around the position is doing the work.<\/strong> Chicago are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards, first downs, and time of possession<\/strong>, e t\u00eam the league’s best rushing offence at 785 yards.<\/strong> Ben Johnson has built something that does not depend on who takes the snap.

Both of these teams have better underlying numbers than two of the three undefeated sides.<\/strong> Records are four games old. Differentials are not noise at this margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Records That Lie<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cleveland Browns: 3-1, point differential of MINUS 14.<\/strong>

They are tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North. They have been outscored by fourteen points. 81 scored, 95 conceded.<\/strong>

Cleveland have won three straight, most recently 27-24 over Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and have won three games as an underdog for the first time since 2021.<\/strong> That is a genuine achievement, and it is also exactly how a negative differential and a winning record coexist: narrow wins and one heavy defeat.<\/strong>

We flagged this in last week’s column: Cleveland have not scored more than 27 points in any game.<\/strong> The number now puts a figure on it. A 3-1 team with a -14 differential is the single clearest regression candidate in the league.

New York Giants: 3-1, +3.<\/strong>

They are 3-0 at home and have outscored opponents by three points across the whole season.<\/strong> 82 against 79. Every win has been a coin flip that landed.

Neither of these teams is a fraud.<\/strong> Winning close games is a skill, and both have shown it. But a 3-1 record built on +3 or -14 is not the same asset as a 3-1 record built on +51<\/strong>, and the market will price them as though it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last Year’s Playoff Field Is Falling Apart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

30-26. Fifteen-year low.<\/strong>

The specifics are worse than the aggregate.

Buffalo opened the season with 77 points and 855 yards in two weeks<\/strong> and looked like a scoring-record team. They have been held to 25 points a game over the past two weeks with seven turnovers<\/strong>, and lost at home to New England as seven-point favourites. The teams they beat in those first two weeks (Houston and Detroit) are now a combined 2-6.<\/strong>

Philadelphia have been outscored 31-0 in the second half of their past two games<\/strong>, the worst two-game differential of the Nick Sirianni era. Against the Rams, they went 0-for-12 on third down and netted 68 passing yards<\/strong>, having held a 97.4% win probability<\/strong> while leading by ten with third-and-goal and 8:17 left.

Houston, Tennessee, the Chargers, Miami, and Tampa Bay are all 0-4.<\/strong> Five winless teams in Week 5.

Denver are 2-2 and 29th in explosive plays<\/strong>, with no 100-yard rushers and one 100-yard receiving game all season.

And the defending champions are 3-1 and the third-ranked team in the league.<\/strong> Seattle lost Sam Darnold to a glute injury on the fifth play of the season, lost their first-round running back Jadarian Price to IR after fumbles in consecutive weeks, and set a franchise record with 150 penalty yards<\/strong> in Week 4; and still have a +32 differential, largely because Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making a case as the best receiver in football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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