{"id":49467,"date":"2026-10-15T17:27:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T23:27:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/?p=49467"},"modified":"2026-10-15T17:27:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T23:27:32","slug":"nba-preseason-storylines-to-watch-before-opening-night","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gambyl.com\/pt\/nba\/nba-preseason-storylines-to-watch-before-opening-night\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9-temporada da NBA: Principais hist\u00f3rias para acompanhar antes da noite de estreia"},"content":{"rendered":"

The defending champions lost 148-98 in Toronto on Tuesday. They are 0-4 in the preseason.<\/strong>

The two title favourites, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, are both 1-3.<\/strong> Boston are 3-0. So are the Portland Trail Blazers.

The NBA preseason standings are close to a perfect inversion of the championship board<\/strong>, which is a useful reminder five days from opening night, and it is not the most interesting thing that has happened this week.

A $200 million contract standoff ended. Giannis Antetokounmpo nearly triple-doubled in a Miami shirt. And the MVP favourite is a man who has never won the award, priced at less than half the back-to-back winner.<\/strong>

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The Inversion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Equipe<\/em><\/th>Pr\u00e9-temporada<\/em><\/th>Title probability<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Boston Celtics<\/em><\/td>3-0<\/strong><\/em><\/td>5%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Portland Trail Blazers<\/em><\/td>3-0<\/strong><\/em><\/td>not on the board<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Miami Heat<\/em><\/td>3-1<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Toronto Raptors<\/em><\/td>2-1<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Pist\u00f5es Detroit<\/em><\/td>2-1<\/em><\/td>3%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Oklahoma City Thunder<\/em><\/td>1-3<\/em><\/td>19%<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
San Antonio Spurs<\/em><\/td>1-3<\/em><\/td>23%<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
New York Knicks<\/em><\/td>0-4<\/strong><\/em><\/td>13%<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Read the bottom three rows together.<\/strong> The two shortest prices in the league have won one preseason game each. The defending champions have not won any and were beaten by fifty points by a team priced at 3%.<\/strong>

None of this predicts anything<\/strong>, and we said as much on Monday: stars are resting, rotations are experiments, and the leading scorers in these games have been Luka Garza, Payton Pritchard and Bones Hyland. The reason it is worth printing anyway is that it shows how little signal there is.<\/strong> If preseason results meant something, Portland would be a contender and San Antonio would not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Knicks Have Not Won a Game<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

0-4, and the 148-98 defeat in Toronto is the worst result of anyone’s October.<\/strong>

Jaden Wiseman had 18 points and 10 rebounds for New York, which tells you who was on the floor. Collin Murray-Boyles put up 19 and 9 for the Raptors.<\/strong>

The context that matters is not the scoreline.<\/strong> It is that New York are the third choice on the title board at 13%<\/strong> despite being the reigning champions, and that Karl-Anthony Towns’ extension remains unresolved,<\/strong> with owner James Dolan having issued an edict to stay clear of the punitive second apron.

They raise their first championship banner in 53 years on Tuesday and then play LeBron James.<\/strong> A side carrying a contract standoff and a target on its back does not want to arrive at that night having lost five straight exhibitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giannis in Miami: The Fit Question Has Its First Data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

20 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assists in a 144-128 win over Brooklyn on Wednesday.<\/strong>

On Monday, the open question was how Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo would function together<\/strong>, two players who operate around the basket, neither with much outside shooting, both wanting a point guard to create for them.

A near triple-double with nine assists is the answer Miami wanted<\/strong>, because it was Giannis doing the creating rather than waiting for it. One preseason game is not a system.<\/strong> It is better evidence than anything available three days ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The $200 Million Standoff Ended, and We Got It Wrong<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jalen Duren agreed to a five-year, $200 million fully guaranteed contract with Detroit. The transaction was official on 2 October.<\/strong>

He accepted it minutes before an 11:59 PM deadline to instead take a one-year, $9.6 million qualifying offer<\/strong>, a decision worth roughly $190 million in the space of one night. He was not on Detroit’s initial camp roster and reported late.

On Wednesday, he scored 24 points in a 128-106 win at Minnesota<\/strong>, after coach J.B. Bickerstaff had declined to commit to playing him.

We reported this situation as unresolved on Monday.<\/strong> We wrote that Duren “did not attend media day and was not expected at the start of training camp” and that Detroit’s title case “assumes their centre shows up.” The deal had been signed ten days before we published.<\/strong> The source we used was dated 29 September, and we did not check whether it had moved. That is the error, and it is the same one that nearly caught us on an NFL trade piece yesterday.<\/strong>

The corrected position:<\/strong> Detroit went from 44 wins to 60 last season on chemistry and continuity; they have their All-NBA centre locked up for five years, and they are a 3% title shot who look underpriced rather than fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MVP Market Has a Strange Shape<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Jogador<\/em><\/th>Pre\u00e7o<\/em><\/th>Kalshi<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Victor Wembanyama<\/em><\/td>+200<\/strong><\/em><\/td>33%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/em><\/td>+450<\/em><\/td>16%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Nikola Jokic<\/em><\/td>+600<\/em><\/td>\u2014<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Luka Doncic<\/em><\/td>+600<\/em><\/td>15%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Cade Cunningham<\/em><\/td>+2500<\/em><\/td>\u2014<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the back-to-back MVP, and he is the second choice at more than double Wembanyama’s price.<\/strong>

That is a real position, not a market error.<\/strong> Wembanyama was 19 points and four blocks in San Antonio’s win over Phoenix on Wednesday; he is the centrepiece of a team that reached the Finals, and the award has rewarded novelty over incumbency for most of the last decade.

But it is worth naming what the price assumes.<\/strong> It assumes the two-time reigning winner does not win a third, on a team priced at 19% to win the championship, with the best two-way wing in the league returning to health beside him. Jalen Williams’ hamstring is the entire Oklahoma City bet, in the title market and this one.<\/strong>

Cade Cunningham at +2500 is the dark horse analysts keep naming<\/strong>, and after Detroit’s 60-win season with Duren now signed, it is not a frivolous number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rookie Class Is Genuinely Open<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Jogador<\/em><\/th>Equipe<\/em><\/th>Pre\u00e7o<\/em><\/th>Kalshi<\/em><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Cameron Boozer<\/em><\/td>M\u00eanfis<\/em><\/td>+300<\/strong><\/em><\/td>24%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Darryn Peterson<\/em><\/td>Utah<\/em><\/td>+350<\/em><\/td>17%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Caleb Wilson<\/em><\/td>Chicago<\/em><\/td>+360<\/em><\/td>19%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
AJ Dybantsa<\/em><\/td>Washington<\/em><\/td>+425<\/em><\/td>19%<\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Darius Acuff Jr.<\/em><\/td>Sacramento<\/em><\/td>+1200<\/em><\/td>\u2014<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Four players inside +425 is an unusually flat market<\/strong>, and the reason is that none of them landed somewhere obviously favourable.

Cameron Boozer went third to a Memphis team that traded Ja Morant to Portland<\/strong> and is openly rebuilding around him, Zach Edey and Cedric Coward. Volume will not be a problem.<\/strong>

Caleb Wilson is the one we flagged on Monday;<\/strong> nobody had the Las Vegas summer league gym buzzing like he did, with 35 points in his first game as a professional and as many three-pointers in one game as he made in his entire freshman season at North Carolina. He gives the Bulls their first clear reason for optimism in years<\/strong>, and he scored in Chicago’s 125-104 win at Milwaukee alongside Matas Buzelis’ 19.

Darius Acuff Jr. at +1200 is the value name analysts keep returning to.<\/strong> He put up 25 points and eight assists in Sacramento’s loss to Golden State last week, on a team that is 0-4 in the preseason and has no established guard hierarchy to climb.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embiid’s Health Is Still the Biggest Variable in the East<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

“Changes everything.”<\/strong> That is Tyrese Maxey on Thursday, describing what a healthy Joel Embiid does for Philadelphia.

It is also the most honest summary of the Sixers’ season available.<\/strong> They added Jaylen Brown, the 2024 Finals MVP, on 1 July<\/strong>, and then Lebron James<\/strong> a few weeks later. They are at 11% on the title board, having been 60-to-1 in mid-June.<\/strong>

But they have beaten the champions by 23 and lost to Boston by 38 inside a week<\/strong>, and the roster contains four players who have each been the first option somewhere. None of that resolves if the centre is unavailable.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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