Last Updated on julho 29, 2026 5:19 pm by Erwin Noguera
The UFC comes to Serbia for the first time in company history. Belgrade Arena hosts UFC Fight Night 283 on Saturday, August 1, and the promotion has built the card exactly the way a debut market should be built: around the local fighters. Uroš Medić headlines in front of his own crowd against Daniel Rodriguez in a five-round welterweight main event that has almost no chance of reaching the judges.
The co-main event lost its original matchup and gained a better story. Jan Błachowicz was scheduled to rematch Bogdan Guskov, but Guskov stepped in against Magomed Ankalaev in Abu Dhabi last weekend. Navajo Stirling took the fight on short notice instead, and the undefeated New Zealander is now favored over a former light heavyweight champion.
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UFC Fight Night Belgrade: Fight Card Odds and Info
| Uroš Medić -500 | Daniel Rodriguez +375 |
| Navajo Stirling -200 | Jan Błachowicz +170 |
| Aleksandar Rakić -300 | Marcin Tybura +210 |
| Robert Valentin -130 | Duško Todorović +110 |
| Vlasto Čepo -400 | Gilbert Urbina +300 |
| Miloš Janičić -500 | Noah Gugnon +375 |
| Ľudovít Klein -129 | Tofiq Musayev +109 |
| Michael Oliveira -275 | Oban Elliott +235 |
| Borislav Nikolić -150 | Mark Vologdin +130 |
| Bogdan Grad -250 | Dennis Buzukja +210 |
| Mateusz Rębecki -400 | Kyle Prepolec +300 |
| Nina Milošević -400 | Hailey Cowan +300 |
| Jovan Leka -300 | Alexander Poppeck +250 |
| Stephanie Luciano -300 | Marina Spasić +250 |
| Quando? | Saturday, August 1 — Prelims at 10:00 am ET, Main Card at 1:00 pm ET |
| Onde? | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia |
| Onde posso assistir? | Paramount+ |
UFC Fight Night: Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Why Bet on Uroš Medić?
Uroš Medić is fighting at home, in the first UFC event ever held in his country, in a main event built specifically for him. That is a lot of pressure. It is also the exact environment that has produced some of the most memorable performances in UFC history.
The biggest advantage is his power. Medić has won his last three fights by first-round knockout. Not by decision, not by late stoppage; three consecutive finishes inside five minutes. At 13-3, he has built a reputation as one of the most explosive finishers at 170 pounds, and he does not need long to find the shot that ends a fight.
He is also the younger, fresher fighter in this matchup. Rodriguez has been in many wars. Medić’s speed advantage in the opening exchanges is real, and against an opponent who tends to build into fights rather than explode out of the gate, that first round is where this could end.
At -500, the market is telling you it expects a short night.
Por que apostar em Daniel Rodriguez?
Daniel Rodriguez is 20-5 and has won three straight fights of his own. That gets lost in the conversation around Medić’s knockout streak. This is not a fighter brought in to lose: this is a durable, experienced welterweight on a genuine run.
The biggest advantage is his volume boxing and his chin. Rodriguez throws in combination, applies pressure behind his hands, and has absorbed significant damage in his career without folding. If Medić empties the tank looking for the first-round finish and does not get it, the fight changes completely in rounds two and three.
This is also a five-round main event. Medić has finished his last three inside one round, which means he has almost no recent championship-round experience. Rodriguez has been in deep water before.
At +375, the underdog price is generous for a fighter with this résumé.
Final Betting Analysis: Uroš Medić vs. Daniel Rodriguez
This fight will not need 25 minutes.
Medić is the correct favorite, and the crowd will only multiply his aggression. Three straight first-round knockouts against UFC opposition are not a fluke, and Rodriguez has historically been willing to stand and trade, which is exactly the fight Medić wants.
The path for Rodriguez is clear, but narrow: survive the opening five minutes, weather the home crowd surge, and drag a fighter with no recent late-round experience into rounds three, four and five. If that happens, +375 will look like a bargain.
Expect Medić to come out hunting immediately. The most likely outcome is a first- or second-round finish. But the underdog price shows a real possibility, not a formality.
UFC Fight Night: Navajo Stirling vs. Jan Błachowicz
Por que apostar no Navajo Stirling?
Navajo Stirling is 5-0 in the UFC and coming off two consecutive knockout wins. The City Kickboxing product has looked sharper with every appearance, and he took this fight on short notice when Bogdan Guskov was reassigned, which tells you he was already in shape and looking for work.
The biggest advantage is age and trajectory. Stirling is a young, improving light heavyweight with power and a striking-first game built at one of the best gyms in the sport. He is moving forward in his career while his opponent is moving in the other direction.
Every metric that matters in this matchup (speed, output, recent form, physical condition) points the same way. That is why a former champion is the underdog.
Por que apostar em Jan Błachowicz?
Jan Błachowicz has been in the UFC since 2014, held the light heavyweight title, and beat elite competition. Experience like that does not evaporate. He has faced far better opposition than anyone Stirling has shared a cage with.
The biggest advantage is his composure and his Polish Power right hand. Błachowicz has never needed to win the athleticism battle. He wins by staying calm, absorbing pressure, and landing the one shot that changes a fight. Against an opponent stepping up in competition for the first time, that veteran patience is a live threat.
At +170, there is value if you believe the championship pedigree still counts for something.
Final Betting Analysis: Navajo Stirling vs. Jan Błachowicz
The record tells the story. Błachowicz has not won a fight since 2022 and is 0-2-2 across his last four, including a majority draw with Guskov at UFC 323 last December. He is 43 years old.
Stirling is undefeated in the UFC, finishing opponents, and taking a step up he appears ready for. The short-notice element is reduced here compared to usual because Stirling was already training.
Błachowicz’s puncher’s chance is genuine — he has ended fights with single shots against better fighters than Stirling. But the sensible read is that the younger man’s speed and volume decide this before the judges get involved.
UFC Fight Night: Aleksandar Rakić vs. Marcin Tybura
Por que apostar em Aleksandar Rakić?
Aleksandar Rakić is a Serbian-Austrian fighter making his heavyweight debut in Belgrade. The timing is not an accident. He spent years as a top-five light heavyweight, beating Anthony Smith and (relevantly for this card) Jan Błachowicz.
The biggest advantage is his striking quality relative to the division he is entering. Rakić has always had one of the cleanest technical striking games at 205 pounds, built around a devastating leg kick and precise boxing. Bringing that skill set to heavyweight, where technique gaps are wider, is a logical career move.
The knee injury against Jamahal Hill cost him years. If the move up in weight means less draining weight cuts and a healthier body, this could be a genuine second act.
Por que apostar em Marcin Tybura?
Marcin Tybura is one of the longest-tenured heavyweights on the roster and has beaten a long list of names people expected to beat him. He is durable, technically sound, and has a significant experience edge in this specific weight class.
The biggest advantage is his grappling. Tybura’s path in almost every fight is the same: close distance, get the takedown, control from top position. Against a debuting heavyweight who has spent his career striking at 205, that is a very clear game plan.
Rakić has also historically been vulnerable when opponents take him down. Tybura knows exactly how to do that.
Final Betting Analysis: Aleksandar Rakić vs. Marcin Tybura
Rakić at -300 reflects the skill gap on the feet, and that gap is real. If this stays standing, Rakić should win comfortably.
But Tybura’s route is obvious, and he has executed it against better strikers than this. The questions around Rakić are about durability and how his frame carries at heavyweight: he will be giving up weight to most of the division, and Tybura is a large, physical opponent.
Rakić by decision or late stoppage is the most likely outcome. Tybura by grinding wrestling is the live underdog scenario, and +210 prices it reasonably.
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Duško Todorović
Por que apostar em Robert Valentin?
Robert Valentin is a slight favorite at -130 in the closest matchup on the main card. He is the more technically consistent of the two, with a straightforward pressure-and-volume approach that has served him well against opponents who need space to operate.
The biggest advantage is his ability to sustain a pace. Middleweight fights often turn on who is still throwing in round three, and Valentin’s conditioning has held up in his previous appearances.
Against a hometown fighter carrying crowd expectations, keeping composure and building a lead across rounds is a viable but unglamorous path to a decision.
Por que apostar em Duško Todorović?
Duško Todorović is Serbian and fighting in Belgrade. That matters more in this fight than in almost any other on the card, because the margins here are so thin.
The biggest advantage is his aggression and finishing intent. Todorović fights forward, looks for the stoppage, and has real power in his hands. In a fight the oddsmakers see as a coin flip, the fighter with the higher finishing rate and the crowd behind him is a reasonable side to take.
At +110 on a near-even matchup, this is one of the better value plays on the card.
Final Betting Analysis: Robert Valentin vs. Duško Todorović
A -130/+110 line is the market admitting it does not know. Neither should you.
Valentin’s technical steadiness gives him the edge if this becomes a three-round points fight. Todorović’s power and the Belgrade crowd give him the edge if it becomes a brawl.
Given the occasion, the venue, and Todorović’s tendency to push forward, the brawl feels more likely than the chess match. Take the underdog price.
UFC Fight Night: Vlasto Čepo vs. Gilbert Urbina
Why Bet on Vlasto Čepo?
Vlasto Čepo is a -400 favorite, the joint-largest gap on the main card outside the main event. The Croatian middleweight brings size, power, and a physical style that has overwhelmed opponents who cannot match him athletically.
The biggest advantage is his ability to end fights early. Čepo does not typically need three rounds. He applies immediate pressure and looks to finish, and the market clearly expects that pattern to hold here.
Fighting in Belgrade in front of a regional crowd should only add to the aggression.
Por que apostar em Gilbert Urbina?
Gilbert Urbina is an American middleweight with a grappling background who has been away from consistent action. At +300, the appeal is clear: he only needs one takedown and one sequence to change the entire complexion of the fight.
The biggest advantage is his submission threat. If Urbina can survive the early pressure and get this fight to the mat, Čepo’s aggression becomes a liability rather than an asset.
His path needs patience through a difficult first round.
Final Betting Analysis: Vlasto Čepo vs. Gilbert Urbina
Čepo should win this, and the -400 price is defensible.
Urbina’s grappling gives him a theoretical route, but he has to get there first, and Čepo’s early pressure is exactly the kind of problem that ends fights before a grappler can establish position. Layoffs also tend to hurt timing more than they hurt power.
Čepo by early finish is the expected outcome. Urbina needs to make it out of round one to survive.
UFC Fight Night: Miloš Janičić vs. Noah Gugnon
Why Bet on Miloš Janičić?
Miloš Janičić is making history as the first fighter from Montenegro ever signed by the UFC. He is also a -500 favorite in his promotional debut, which tells you how highly the matchmakers rate him.
The biggest advantage is momentum and regional pedigree. Janičić arrives having earned his contract on the strength of dominant performances on the European circuit, and he is fighting essentially at home: Belgrade is a short trip from Podgorica, and the crowd will treat him as one of their own.
Debuting fighters priced this heavily are usually debuting for a reason.
Why Bet on Noah Gugnon?
Noah Gugnon is the +375 underdog and enters with the lower profile, but lightweight is the deepest division in the sport and it is a weight class where one clean exchange settles things.
The biggest advantage is the pressure differential. Janičić has on his shoulders the weight of a historic debut in front of a partisan crowd. Gugnon has none of that. Fighters who debut under enormous expectation sometimes fight tight, and an opponent with nothing to lose can capitalize on that.
Final Betting Analysis: Miloš Janičić vs. Noah Gugnon
The UFC placed this fight on the main card of its first Serbian spectacle for a reason. They want Janičić to have his moment.
At -500, there is no value in backing the favorite, and the underdog price is only interesting if you believe debut nerves will be a factor. Janičić should win, and the promotion is clearly betting he will win impressively.
UFC Fight Night: Ľudovít Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev
Por que apostar em Ľudovít Klein?
Ľudovít Klein is the narrowest favorite on the entire card at -129, and the Slovak southpaw has earned that edge through his technique rather than raw power. He has built his lightweight run on awkward angles, sharp counters, and an ability to make orthodox fighters look uncomfortable from the opening bell.
The biggest advantage is his posture and distance management. Southpaw versus orthodox is already a difficult puzzle, and Klein compounds it by constantly changing levels and refusing to stand in front of opponents. Fighters who rely on setting their feet to generate power struggle to find him.
Across a full three rounds, Klein’s volume and accuracy should build a lead. He does not need to find a finish to win this fight.
Por que apostar em Tofiq Musayev?
Tofiq Musayev is a former RIZIN Lightweight Grand Prix champion, and that title was not won on points. The Azerbaijani has one of the most legitimate one-punch knockout reputations of anyone on this card, with a highlight reel built on fights that ended suddenly and violently.
The biggest advantage is his power. Musayev does not need to win rounds. He needs to land once. Against an opponent who operates in the pocket and trades in exchanges, the opportunity will present itself at some point across fifteen minutes.
At +109 on a fighter with this finishing pedigree, the market is essentially giving a coin flip on a puncher against a technician.
Final Betting Analysis: Ľudovít Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev
This is the best fight on the prelim card and the tightest line of the night.
Klein’s technical superiority should show in a longer fight where he manages distance, accumulates points, and avoids the clean exchange that changes everything. That is the most likely version of this fight.
But Musayev’s power is a genuine equalizer, and it does not diminish as rounds pass. Klein has to be defensively sound for fifteen minutes. Musayev needs one moment.
Take Klein on points if you are picking a side, but this is the card’s best candidate for a Performance of the Night bonus in either direction.
UFC Fight Night: Michael Oliveira vs. Oban Elliott
Why Bet on Michael Oliveira?
Michael Oliveira is a -275 favorite and the more polished welterweight in this matchup. The Brazilian brings cleaner technique, better shot selection, and a more disciplined approach to range than his opponent.
The biggest advantage is his composure in structured exchanges. Oliveira does not get dragged into fights he did not plan for. He picks his moments, lands the higher-percentage strikes, and avoids the chaotic sequences where fights get decided by accident.
Against an opponent whose entire game is built on making fights messy, refusing to engage on those terms is the whole battle.
Por que apostar em Oban Elliott?
Oban Elliott is one of the most durable and mercyless welterweights in the division, and the Welshman has built a following precisely because he never fights a quiet round. He walks forward, throws volume, and forces opponents into the sort of grinding contests that break game plans.
The biggest advantage is his pace and his chin. Elliott absorbs damage and keeps coming, which is a genuinely difficult problem for technical fighters who expect their accuracy to discourage pressure. If he can make this ugly early, Oliveira’s polish becomes far less relevant.
At +235, he is priced as a clear underdog for a fighter whose style creates upsets.
Final Betting Analysis: Michael Oliveira vs. Oban Elliott
Oliveira is the correct favorite on technique, and if this is a striking match at range, he should win it comfortably.
The problem is that Elliott does not allow striking matches at range. His path is simple: pressure from the opening bell, close distance, and turn a boxing contest into a fight. Fighters who can impose that on more skilled opponents cover spreads usually.
Oliveira should get the decision, but Elliott is genuinely live if he can drag this into a third round where output matters more than accuracy.
UFC Fight Night: Borislav Nikolić vs. Mark Vologdin
Why Bet on Borislav Nikolić?
Borislav Nikolić is Serbian and fighting in Belgrade on the night his country hosts its first UFC event. In a bantamweight fight priced at -150, that context is not decoration: it is a real factor.
The biggest advantage is the environment. Close fights at 135 pounds are often decided by which fighter looks more urgent in the final ninety seconds of a round, and judges are human beings sitting in a building full of people screaming for one man. Nikolić will fight with that behind him.
Beyond the crowd, he is the more physically imposing fighter in the matchup and should be able to dictate where this takes place.
Por que apostar em Mark Vologdin?
Mark Vologdin at +130 is a live underdog in a division where technical margins are thin and small advantages compound across three rounds.
The biggest advantage is that he has none of the pressure. Vologdin is walking into the Wolf Cave with no expectation on him, and fighters in that position often perform with a freedom their opponents cannot access. Nikolić is carrying the crowd and everything that comes with it.
Bantamweight is also the division where volume wins rounds. If Vologdin can out-throw Nikolić and stay out of trouble, the scorecards are reachable regardless of the noise.
Final Betting Analysis: Borislav Nikolić vs. Mark Vologdin
A -150/+130 line means the market sees this as close to a toss-up with a modest lean toward the local fighter.
Nikolić has the crowd, the physicality, and the occasion. Vologdin has the freedom of the underdog role and a realistic path through volume.
The sensible read is Nikolić, largely because home fighters in debut markets tend to outperform their odds and because close rounds in loud buildings do not get scored in a vacuum. But this is not a fight to invest heavily in either direction.
UFC Fight Night: Bogdan Grad vs. Dennis Buzukja
Por que apostar em Bogdan Grad?
Bogdan Grad is a -250 favorite and the more technically refined featherweight in this matchup. The Romanian has a cleaner striking base and better fundamentals than his opponent, and at 145 pounds those gaps show up quickly.
The biggest advantage is his ability to land the harder, more accurate shot in exchanges. Both of these fighters are willing to trade, which means this fight will be decided by who lands cleaner rather than who lands more. That favors Grad significantly.
He also has the discipline to fight at his own pace rather than getting pulled into a firefight he does not need.
Por que apostar em Dennis Buzukja?
Dennis Buzukja is a Contender Series product who has never had a boring fight in his life. The American brings constant forward pressure, high output, and an eagerness to deal with damage to deliver it.
The biggest advantage is his volume and his refusal to slow down. Buzukja fights three hard rounds regardless of what happened in the first two. Against a technical fighter who prefers to pick his spots, that relentlessness can turn a fight into something neither man planned for.
At +210, he is the kind of underdog who wins by making the fight uglier than his opponent wants.
Final Betting Analysis: Bogdan Grad vs. Dennis Buzukja
This fight has one of the highest finish probabilities on the card, and it could go either way.
Grad is the more skilled fighter and should win a technical contest. Buzukja’s path is to eliminate the technical element: pressure from the opening bell, force exchanges, and see whose chin holds up.
Grad is the correct favorite and the likely winner. But do not be surprised by a stoppage in either direction, and do not expect this one to go the distance quietly.
UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Kyle Prepolec
Por que apostar em Mateusz Rębecki?
Mateusz Rębecki is a -400 favorite and the clear class of this matchup. The Polish lightweight combines a strong wrestling base with genuinely heavy hands, which is the most difficult profile to game plan against at 155 pounds.
The biggest advantage is his physical strength and finishing rate. Rębecki does not just win rounds; he ends fights. He pushes a hard pace, closes distance aggressively, and has the takedown ability to force opponents into positions where they cannot defend and recover simultaneously.
He is also fighting close to home in the regional sense. The Polish contingent in Belgrade will be loud.
Por que apostar em Kyle Prepolec?
Kyle Prepolec is a tough, experienced Canadian veteran who has never been in a fight he stopped trying to win. He has faced difficult opposition throughout his career and consistently made opponents work for every minute.
The biggest advantage is his durability. Prepolec absorbs punishment and continues, which means Rębecki will have to sustain his pace for a full fifteen minutes rather than getting an early exit. Fighters who rely on aggression sometimes fade when the finish does not come.
At +300, the value is entirely in that scenario: a Rębecki who empties the tank early and has nothing left in round three.
Final Betting Analysis: Mateusz Rębecki vs. Kyle Prepolec
Rębecki should win this and win it convincingly.
The skill and athleticism gap is significant, and Prepolec’s best quality (his toughness) is a way to survive rather than a way to win. His route requires Rębecki to make mistakes he does not typically make.
Expect Rębecki to establish his wrestling early, wear his rival down, and find a finish inside the distance. The -400 price is correct.
UFC Fight Night: Nina Milošević vs. Hailey Cowan
Why Bet on Nina Milošević?
Nina Milošević is a Serbian bantamweight fighting in Belgrade on the biggest night in her country’s MMA history. At -400, the market has her as one of the heaviest favorites on the card.
The biggest advantage is the matchup itself. This fight was constructed for a local win, and the UFC does not typically place hometown fighters in positions where they are likely to lose on a debut card. Milošević has the physical tools and the momentum to justify the price.
Add a crowd that will treat every hit she lands as a highlight, and the environment becomes a real factor in how rounds get scored.
Por que apostar em Hailey Cowan?
Hailey Cowan is an experienced American bantamweight who has shared the cage with tough competition and understands what an adverse environment feels like. At +300, she is exactly the kind of underdog who ruins a planned celebration.
The biggest advantage is her experience against quality opposition. Cowan has been the underdog before and has the composure to fight her own fight regardless of what the building sounds like.
Her path requires slowing the pace, avoiding the early surge, and making this a technical contest rather than an occasion.
Final Betting Analysis: Nina Milošević vs. Hailey Cowan
Milošević is the heavy favorite, and the crowd will be behind her from the walkout.
Cowan’s experience gives her a route if she can survive the opening round and drag Milošević into deeper water, but -400 shows a real gap in expectation rather than just home-field sentiment.
Milošević should win, and the promotion is clearly hoping she wins in a way the building remembers.
UFC Fight Night: Jovan Leka vs. Alexander Poppeck
Why Bet on Jovan Leka?
Jovan Leka is a -300 favorite in a heavyweight matchup, and at 265 pounds that price carries a specific meaning: the market believes he is more likely to land first.
The biggest advantage is his power. Heavyweight fights are rarely decided by technique or conditioning. They are decided by who connects cleanly, and Leka is favored because the oddsmakers believe he is the more dangerous man in an exchange.
Fighting in Belgrade adds another element. Regional support at heavyweight, where fighters feed on crowd energy in short bursts, matters more than people assume.
Why Bet on Alexander Poppeck?
Alexander Poppeck at +250 is a live underdog for the simplest reason in combat sports: this is heavyweight, and heavyweight underdogs win constantly.
The biggest advantage is that he only needs one shot. No amount of skill differential protects a heavyweight from a clean connection. Poppeck does not need to out-strike Leka, out-wrestle him, or win rounds. He needs one exchange to go his way.
At +250, backing a heavyweight underdog with knockout ability is a mathematically defensible position regardless of the skill gap.
Final Betting Analysis: Jovan Leka vs. Alexander Poppeck
Neither of these men is likely to hear the final horn.
Leka is the correct favorite and should be the more dangerous fighter early, especially with the crowd behind him. But heavyweight is the division where favorites lose most often, and -300 is a price that assumes more control than anyone has at this weight.
Take Leka if you are picking a side, but with low confidence. This is a fight to watch rather than a fight to bet.
UFC Fight Night: Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasić
Por que apostar em Stephanie Luciano?
Stephanie Luciano is a -300 favorite and the more experienced, technically complete fighter in the strawweight opener. The Brazilian brings cleaner fundamentals and a better understanding of how to win rounds at 115 pounds.
The biggest advantage is her composure. Luciano is walking into a building that wants her to lose and has the professional experience to ignore it. Strawweight fights are decided by output and precision across three rounds, and Luciano’s technical edge should show as the fight progresses.
She also has no pressure. The occasion belongs to her opponent.
Why Bet on Marina Spasić?
Marina Spasić is Serbian, fighting at home, on the opening fight of the first UFC event ever held in her country. At +250, the emotional weight of that is considerable.
The biggest advantage is the crowd and the moment. Spasić has every reason to fight the best fifteen minutes of her career, and opening fights on historic cards have produced memorable upsets before. If she starts fast and gets the building behind her, momentum becomes real.
Her path requires urgency from the opening bell and refusing to let Luciano settle into a technical rhythm.
Final Betting Analysis: Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasić
Luciano’s edge in the fundamentals is clear and -300 prices it fairly.
Spasić has the crowd and the occasion, which will matter for the first five minutes. Beyond that, Luciano’s experience and technical superiority should take over, and strawweight fights rarely get decided by emotion across three full rounds.
Luciano by decision is the most likely outcome. But Belgrade will be at its loudest for this one, and a fast Spasić start would make the rest of the night very interesting.
Final Card Outlook
The UFC built this card to work in one specific way. Medić headlines at home. Rakić returns in Belgrade. Todorović, Nikolić, Milošević, and Spasić all fight in front of their own crowd, and Janičić makes history for Montenegro next door.
The betting implications are worth noting. Home fighters historically outperform their odds in debut markets: the crowd effect is real, and judges are not immune to it. Todorović at +110 and Nikolić at -150 are the two spots where that factor could matter most.
For value, Klein vs. Musayev at nearly even money is the most compelling fight on the card and the one most likely to produce a bonus. For entertainment, the main event will not last long in either direction.
Fourteen fights, one country’s first UFC event, and a main event where both men have every reason to swing. Belgrade should be loud.
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